Kazakh President Tokayev disapproves of pro - Russian armed groups in front of Putin - Russia threatens.
2022-07-07
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Moving to countries surrounding Russia
The withdrawal of the former Soviet Union's satellite states from Russia is becoming more and more obvious. Ukraine is currently at war with Russia and the other is Kazakhstan.
In Kazakhstan, a referendum was held on June 5th to decide whether or not to amend the constitution, and the proposed amendment was approved. The bill aims to eliminate the influence of former President Nazarbayev, who held power for many years, and 77.18% of voters supported the bill, which led to former President Nazarbayev retiring from politics.
Trend of democracy in Kazakhstan
The current constitution grants Nazarbayev, who retired in 2019, a special status as the country's first president and "father of the nation," but the proposed constitutional amendment deletes related provisions. According to the Election Commission, the turnout reached 68.1%.
Electoral system reform will also take place at the same time, and is expected to be a step toward democratization in Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan was a nuclear state
Kazakhstan is one of the countries that became independent from the former Soviet Union after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Because strategic nuclear weapons were deployed in the region, it automatically became a nuclear-weapon state. Ukraine and Belarus also became independent countries while possessing nuclear weapons, but all three countries abandoned their nuclear weapons when they ratified the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
On the other hand, these regions are strategically important to Moscow in relation to NATO, and that is why Russia is so fixated on Ukraine.
Declaration of disapproval in front of Mr. Putin
On June 17, Kazakhstan's current President Tokayev spoke at a plenary session of the International Economic Forum held in St. Petersburg, northwestern Russia, where Russian President Putin was also present. ” Kazakhstan indicated that it would not #ylow# recognize it as an official state. That's exactly what he denied in front of Mr. Putin..
Russian threats
He implicitly criticized Russia for its strict control over speech, saying, ``Kazakhs are an open civil society, and the people have a variety of opinions regarding (Russia's) special military operations.'' In response, on June 18, Mr. Zatulin, a senior member of Russia's ruling party United Russia, said, ``This is a challenge to Russia,'' and ``problems similar to Ukraine could occur in Kazakhs,'' blatantly. He is making serious threats .
Military invasion just by saying something?
To put it simply, Russia's disapproval of pro-Russian armed groups and a series of statements reveal that Russia is not only willing to launch a military invasion, but is also a country that will immediately send troops if it doesn't like it. That's why I don't think he's insane.
Withdrawal of strategic satellite states
In any case, Russia is absolutely pro-Russian and wants to control Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan as satellite states.
Kazakhstan was not one of the five countries that voted against the United Nations resolution condemning Russia, which was adopted on March 2, and abstained.
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Mobilization order for 300,000 people issued in Russia - President Putin expands invasion of Ukraine.
Partial mobilization order for 300,000 people
Economic benefits from acquired territory
On a national scale, the lost population will be returned
A meaningless claim that it is okay to give up the country
Ukraine aims to regain territory
Russia has received various criticisms over its decision to issue a mobilization order for 300,000 people. A referendum was held in southeastern Ukraine, which has become an international issue as it violates the United Nations Charter. The least we can say is that in response to the economic sanctions imposed by each country on Russia, Russia will try to recoup its losses by reaping economic benefits from the areas it has invaded in the medium to long term.
Suppose you suddenly acquire 100 m2 of land. If you grow rice there, how much profit will you make each year?If you grow wheat there, how much profit will you make? What would be the cumulative profit if this continued for 50 years? And will economic sanctions from other countries still continue 50 years from now?
Will the 300,000 conscripted soldiers in Russia never return? Suppose they all died in battle. Given the national economy, these 300,000 people will return. After a major war, a region may experience population growth to compensate for the lost population. The first baby boom occurred in Japan. In other words, in terms of the nation, 300,000 people will be revived.
There was someone who complained that the leader of some idiot political party in Japan would be fine if they gave away at least one of Japan's remote islands. That's completely stupid. Humankind's wars have been carried out based on this kind of time axis calculation. Criticism of the war will eventually be adjusted. The core of this is the national land that will benefit us forever in the future.
Currently, the media is reporting that Ukraine is in the ascendant, but the actual conclusion will differ depending on what you consider as a yardstick. The least we can say is that in order to make Russia's war meaningless and null and void, we must recapture all of the Ukrainian territory that was taken by Russia. Russia will only lose and gain nothing.
Read Russian intentions that are not reported in Japan from the Chinese media - What are they planning?
If you look at the Chinese media about the meeting between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Foreign Minister Lavrov, you can see something unexpected."The U.S. and its allies have declared a "full-fledged war" against Russia, which destroys Russia's economy, undermines Russia's domestic political stability, and ultimately pushes Russia outside the international community," he said.Lavrov also reported that Western attitudes toward Russia have reached the stage of blatant state-level robbery, confiscation of private property and refusal to fulfill their obligations in the financial and economic sectors.
In "Reference News", there are many cases in which Mr. Lavrov does not need to include the European Union or the United States, which helped Kiev in the conflict, in the peace process, and diplomats' achievements are undermined by Western countries.They reportedly said they could no longer be trusted.
Russian delegation leader Vladimir Mezinski has said the need for multilateral talks as a new framework for ensuring Ukraine's security during the ceasefire talks in Turkey, but it means that the U.S. and EU countries will not be included.And the fact that Western countries, including the U.S., and Japan, have declared a "full-fledged war" against Russia makes one wonder what the nature of the multilateral talks will be like.
There is a possibility that a group that draws in China and excludes Western countries will make some kind of deal.
When partial mobilization order turns into martial law, it's Russia's state of war - Putin hints at using nuclear weapons.
Russia envisions using nuclear weapons
Russia is not yet at war
If there is a state of war, martial law will be declared
Countries must refrain from using nuclear weapons
The recent referendum and partial mobilization order in eastern Ukraine appear to be creating the preconditions for the use of nuclear weapons. This does not mean that they are planning to use nuclear weapons, but only as a prerequisite. "If Russia's territorial integrity is threatened, we will use all means to protect Russia and its people. This is not a bluff," Putin stressed.
Until now, Russia has carried out military invasions of Ukraine in the name of peacekeeping operations. That means it's not a war. Ukraine was attacked by Russia and a general mobilization order was imposed, leading to a war for national defense. If, as a result of the recent referendum in eastern Ukraine, these areas are declared Russian territory, an attack on this area would be an attack on Russian territory. In other words, the phase will be raised to a state of war for Russia.
In such a case, rather than partial mobilization, martial law would be imposed and the president would assume command powers that go beyond the Russian constitution. The use of nuclear weapons presupposes a state of war and a military attack on Russia, which means that the prerequisites are in place. The key question now seems to be whether Russia will declare a state of war.
U.S. presidential aide Sullivan said on the 25th, ``If Russia were to use nuclear weapons, it would have catastrophic consequences,'' and Ukrainian presidential advisor Podlyak said, ``Russia would not be able to respond tactically or strategically based on the doctrine of nuclear deterrence.'' "The international community should clearly declare that if there is an attempt to use nuclear weapons, we will immediately launch a joint nuclear attack on nuclear weapons facilities in Russia. This is a decision made by the global community, not by Ukraine." did. Russian stocks have already plunged in the market due to concerns about the possibility of Russia imposing martial law.
Russia and doping issues that will not disappear. the current level of Russian consciousness from the incident of Camilla Varyeva.
Kamila Valieva's drug use case is complicated. There are various discussions about the Olympics and drugs, the Olympics and raising national prestige, and minors and participation in the Olympics. Regarding the Olympics and drugs, as I used to do gymnastics, I have often heard that communist countries use drugs that stop people from growing. In competitive gymnastics, the larger the body, the more control over the details becomes farther away from the brain, which is a disadvantage. Even if his large body gave him an impression of majesty, it was nothing compared to the added benefit of accurately executing his techniques. Excellent gymnasts seem to have been receiving these injections since childhood.
There is a close relationship between communist countries and the enhancement of national prestige through international sports. Even in democratic countries, there is a relationship between enhancing national prestige and the Olympics, but the difference is quite different. In the former Soviet Union, if you win a medal at the Olympics, you can live in a mansion and be compensated by the state for a lifetime of freedom. The same may be true of present-day Russia.
Since the Olympics are an amateur sport, personal profits cannot be generated directly from sports. Since the benefits are given after the Olympics or after retirement, it seems that this is not a business. In Japan, if you win a gold medal at the Olympics, you will receive 5 million yen from the JOC. The silver medal is worth 2 million yen, and the bronze medal is 1 million yen. It's a financial reward for the enormous amount of life time and life-risking effort you've put into it.
From a Japanese perspective, Kamila Valieva appears to have been using the prohibited drug trimetazidine and other non-prohibited drugs that are potent when mixed with trimetazidine, but the circumstances surrounding her coming of age are similar to those mentioned above. That's right. But Kamila Valieva may well be held personally responsible. 15-year-old girls must be taught that because they are minors, they are not held socially or legally responsible. And the adult environment surrounding Valieva is even more responsible. Russian society surrounding the Russian Skating Association and the country of Russia also have a big responsibility. This problem arises because Russia is stripped of its right to participate as a nation, and even if it participates as an ROC, the essence remains unchanged. If the issues surrounding athletes remain unresolved, Valieva could seek asylum abroad and aim for gold again.
It would be better for Russia's talented athletes to defect abroad and aim for the Olympics. This is an incident that makes me feel that way.
If the Northern Territories are viewed as a regional issue around Russia, it is very doubtful whether they will be returned.
Looking to the west of Russia
Finland lost 10% of its land
Pro-Russian forces in Moldova and Georgia
Korean War, Vietnam War, and Communist Civil War
Create a civil war, stage it, and advance
Ukraine issue and Northern Territories issue
Is Japan's territorial issue a diplomatic card?
War between Finland and the Soviet Union broke out on November 30, 1939. The Soviet Union invaded Finland after its border guards came under fire from Finnish troops. The Soviet Union was condemned by the international community for its apparent acts of aggression and was expelled from the League of Nations on December 14, 1939, but this had no effect on its actions.
Finland was forced to cede 10% of its territory, including Viipuri, and the Karelian Isthmus. The fighting ended with a peace treaty in which the area where 20% of industrial production was concentrated was ceded to the Soviet Union.
Transnistria is located in Moldova, which shares a border with Ukraine, which is currently undergoing an invasion. This is an area where pro-Russian forces within Moldova have declared independence. Of course, there is Russian support behind this. Georgia is also home to the pro-Russian Republic of South Ossetia. During the recent invasion of Ukraine, the Republic of South Ossetia announced that it would proceed with the process of becoming part of Russia.
The Korean War was fought in what is now North Korea, and the Vietnam War was fought in which the former Soviet Union supported the Northern Army, with the aim of building a socialist country. In other words, the objective is to establish a pro-Russian regime in Asia. This became Comintern's usual tactic. In China, the Chinese Communist Party won after a civil war between the two countries, resulting in the current China.
Since Russia is the largest country in the world, there are things that cannot be seen unless you look at the globe further apart. The method of the former Soviet Union and Russia is to support independent forces, pro-Russian forces, from behind and cause a civil war.
The 2014 Crimean Crisis occurred when the Russian military unilaterally invaded the Crimean Peninsula and held a referendum in an attempt to annex the pro-Russian forces living in the Crimean Peninsula to Russia. Following the recognition of the independence of the present-day Donetsk and Lugansk republics in the Donpass region, Russia has continued to invade from there, with the intention of making the entire southeastern part of Ukraine or east of the Dnieper River into Russian territory.
If we look at the country of Russia from this distance, surrounding regions become Russian forces through various methods of being incorporated or becoming independent, and Russia supports them from behind. Japan has the Northern Territories issue.
Looking at Russia's territorial expansion methods, Japan can only argue that it is a violation of international law because Russia invaded after the Potsdam Declaration, but from Russia's point of view, such things are something they always do, and I can't imagine Russia specifically returning the Northern Territories to Japan. Will Russia return the territory it has acquired in violation of international law? It wouldn't exist. It can be said that the very attempt to find a compromise with Russia over territorial issues is different.
