Putin cannot declare martial law across Russia. CSTO - Security system collapsing from outside.
2022-10-21
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Dissolution of the Warsaw Pact
After democratization, Gorbachev dismantled the Warsaw Pact. Since there is no longer a military alliance to compete with NATO, Russia claims that the West rejected the proposal to disband NATO, and in return there was a secret agreement not to expand NATO eastward, but this is not certain. For some reason, Gorbachev died during the Ukraine war.
CSTO is an alliance of the former Soviet Union
What the media doesn't talk about much is the CSTO, a collective security system established in 1992 in the former Soviet Union. Although the size of Russia is that of the former Soviet Union, if you check the CSTO member countries on a map, you will see that Russia geopolitically does not share borders with NATO countries. What disrupted this balance was the Baltic states joining NATO, but their national power was small and their borders were short. Meanwhile, the Georgia War breaks out in the south.
Border lines and security issues
The Ukraine war thus occurred as a result of Russia's opposition to NATO's direct border with Russia. However, this is only Russia's claim. As a result, the invasion of Ukraine led to Finland applying to join NATO, leading to a future in which a vast border bordered the country west of Putin's hometown of St. Petersburg.
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Finland's Prime Minister Marin is eager to join NATO Conclusion in a few weeks - Russia strengthens its armament in the Baltic Sea. Finland is eager to join NATO
Finland's Prime Minister Marin announced his willingness to join NATO on the 13th. He will reach a conclusion in a few weeks through Congress. He has remained neutral so as not to inspire Russia, but he also said that this Russian action changed his mind. In contrast, he is one of Russia's closest aides to President Vladimir Putin, and Dmitry Medvejev, vice-chairman of the Security Council, said on the 14th that Russia and Finland will join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on the 14th. Warned that it was necessary to increase defense capabilities in the region, and also suggested the deployment of nuclear weapons.
Russia strengthens its armament in the Baltic Sea
What is the Baltic Sea armament? Kaliningrad. Russia has an enlave in the area facing the Baltic Sea between Lithuania and Poland, the three Baltic states. It would be to deploy nuclear weapons here. Medvejev argues that Russia must strengthen its army, navy and air force in the Baltic Sea to restore military equilibrium. Finland borders Russia on a long border, and even Moscow is just over 1,000 km away. The location is just a stone's throw from St. Petersburg. However, Kaliningrad is an excursion, and Russia cannot access it without going through Lithuania at present. It can be said that the location is even more difficult than in Ukraine.
Russia is the Black Sea and NATO is the Baltic Sea
If Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia is likely to be more hurt than Ukraine. Russia is currently capturing southern Ukraine with the aim of influencing the Black Sea, but with the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, NATO will acquire the Baltic Sea. And Kaliningrad will be an outlying area completely isolated from Russia. Russia may be trying to defend itself by deploying nuclear weapons so that Kaliningrad cannot be taken.
Martial law limited due to lack of troops
President Putin annexed four eastern Ukrainian regions and declared martial law. Russian soldiers were short of manpower, and despite a partial mobilization order, many fled the country. The attack on four Ukrainian regions was considered an attack on Russian territory, and martial law was declared for all of Russia, but it turned out to be only the four eastern regions of Ukraine. Apparently it doesn't work.
Does CSTO really work
In addition to domestic political issues, there is also the existence of CSTO. Of the six member states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Armenia have declared their neutrality on the Ukraine issue. It is unclear whether this means Russia's neutrality toward special military operations or toward a state of war. I tried looking for something similar to NATO Article 5 regarding the conditions for activating the CSTO collective security system, but I couldn't find anything. Under the pretense that Russia is under attack, Mr. Putin declares a state of war and imposes martial law, and if the CSTO does not take action, this collective security system will collapse.
Declaration of war highlights hopeless isolation
The focus will likely be on whether Putin declares a state of war and acknowledges that Russia is under attack. The condition for using nuclear weapons is that Russia's survival is in danger, but at least that condition is not currently met. A declaration of war could lead to a hopeless checkmate for Russia.
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When partial mobilization order turns into martial law, it's Russia's state of war - Putin hints at using nuclear weapons.
Russia envisions using nuclear weapons
Russia is not yet at war
If there is a state of war, martial law will be declared
Countries must refrain from using nuclear weapons
The recent referendum and partial mobilization order in eastern Ukraine appear to be creating the preconditions for the use of nuclear weapons. This does not mean that they are planning to use nuclear weapons, but only as a prerequisite. "If Russia's territorial integrity is threatened, we will use all means to protect Russia and its people. This is not a bluff," Putin stressed.
Until now, Russia has carried out military invasions of Ukraine in the name of peacekeeping operations. That means it's not a war. Ukraine was attacked by Russia and a general mobilization order was imposed, leading to a war for national defense. If, as a result of the recent referendum in eastern Ukraine, these areas are declared Russian territory, an attack on this area would be an attack on Russian territory. In other words, the phase will be raised to a state of war for Russia.
In such a case, rather than partial mobilization, martial law would be imposed and the president would assume command powers that go beyond the Russian constitution. The use of nuclear weapons presupposes a state of war and a military attack on Russia, which means that the prerequisites are in place. The key question now seems to be whether Russia will declare a state of war.
U.S. presidential aide Sullivan said on the 25th, ``If Russia were to use nuclear weapons, it would have catastrophic consequences,'' and Ukrainian presidential advisor Podlyak said, ``Russia would not be able to respond tactically or strategically based on the doctrine of nuclear deterrence.'' "The international community should clearly declare that if there is an attempt to use nuclear weapons, we will immediately launch a joint nuclear attack on nuclear weapons facilities in Russia. This is a decision made by the global community, not by Ukraine." did. Russian stocks have already plunged in the market due to concerns about the possibility of Russia imposing martial law.
Does Putin mean Pan - Slavism? Security and Ethnic Issues.
Mr Putin initially stated that the reason for the invasion of Ukraine was the eastern expansion of NATO, but using another context that Russia and Ukraine are the same ethnic group, after expressing that NATO will not participate in the war, Mr Putin say the word that we are same ethnic group. On the other hand, there are many statements that they oppose the Naziization of Ukraine. It seems to mean a civil war attack from Ukraine on the Donbus region, which means that Russians in eastern Ukraine are being persecuted. However, it is not well understood whether such a fact exists or not. The problem is that the context has changed. What was initially a confrontational structure between NATO and Russia has been changed to a bilateral issue between Russia and Ukraine by changing the issue to ethnic issues.
It reminds me of pan-Slavism. It is an idea that began in the early 19th century with the aim of integrating the Slavic peoples. The Slavs, said to have lived north of the Baltic Sea, followed a different travel route than the Germanic. The Germanic migration expanded to the present Western Europe due to the population explosion of the people who were in the Nordic region. In many Western European countries such as Anglo-Saxon, Frank, Germany, and the Netherlands, one tribe of the Germanic people occupied each area. It was the Celts, an indigenous people of Europe, who were occupied. Pan-Germanism was born in opposition to Pan-Slavism during World War I. This is an idea that appeals for the unity and unity of the Germanic people. This idea was taken over by the Nazis and became Greater German Solution, and World War II was held with the aim of integrating the Germanic people and building an empire centered on Germany.
It was the Slavic people who became Eastern European countries after the war and formed the socialist camp. Ukrainians, Belarusians, Russians / Slovaks, Czechs, Poles, Croatians, Serbs, Bulgarians, etc. In other words, Putin's context that Russia and Ukraine are the same ethnic group feels like the resurrection of the empire by the Great Russianism. This is exactly the nationalism that leads to Nazism and the former Soviet Union. Currently, many Slavic countries are members of the EU and NATO. Justifying war on ethnic issues is itself quite outdated. The structure has already been dismantled by the collapse of the former Soviet Union.
Russia and doping issues that will not disappear. the current level of Russian consciousness from the incident of Camilla Varyeva.
Kamila Valieva's drug use case is complicated. There are various discussions about the Olympics and drugs, the Olympics and raising national prestige, and minors and participation in the Olympics. Regarding the Olympics and drugs, as I used to do gymnastics, I have often heard that communist countries use drugs that stop people from growing. In competitive gymnastics, the larger the body, the more control over the details becomes farther away from the brain, which is a disadvantage. Even if his large body gave him an impression of majesty, it was nothing compared to the added benefit of accurately executing his techniques. Excellent gymnasts seem to have been receiving these injections since childhood.
There is a close relationship between communist countries and the enhancement of national prestige through international sports. Even in democratic countries, there is a relationship between enhancing national prestige and the Olympics, but the difference is quite different. In the former Soviet Union, if you win a medal at the Olympics, you can live in a mansion and be compensated by the state for a lifetime of freedom. The same may be true of present-day Russia.
Since the Olympics are an amateur sport, personal profits cannot be generated directly from sports. Since the benefits are given after the Olympics or after retirement, it seems that this is not a business. In Japan, if you win a gold medal at the Olympics, you will receive 5 million yen from the JOC. The silver medal is worth 2 million yen, and the bronze medal is 1 million yen. It's a financial reward for the enormous amount of life time and life-risking effort you've put into it.
From a Japanese perspective, Kamila Valieva appears to have been using the prohibited drug trimetazidine and other non-prohibited drugs that are potent when mixed with trimetazidine, but the circumstances surrounding her coming of age are similar to those mentioned above. That's right. But Kamila Valieva may well be held personally responsible. 15-year-old girls must be taught that because they are minors, they are not held socially or legally responsible. And the adult environment surrounding Valieva is even more responsible. Russian society surrounding the Russian Skating Association and the country of Russia also have a big responsibility. This problem arises because Russia is stripped of its right to participate as a nation, and even if it participates as an ROC, the essence remains unchanged. If the issues surrounding athletes remain unresolved, Valieva could seek asylum abroad and aim for gold again.
It would be better for Russia's talented athletes to defect abroad and aim for the Olympics. This is an incident that makes me feel that way.
If the Northern Territories are viewed as a regional issue around Russia, it is very doubtful whether they will be returned.
Looking to the west of Russia
Finland lost 10% of its land
Pro-Russian forces in Moldova and Georgia
Korean War, Vietnam War, and Communist Civil War
Create a civil war, stage it, and advance
Ukraine issue and Northern Territories issue
Is Japan's territorial issue a diplomatic card?
War between Finland and the Soviet Union broke out on November 30, 1939. The Soviet Union invaded Finland after its border guards came under fire from Finnish troops. The Soviet Union was condemned by the international community for its apparent acts of aggression and was expelled from the League of Nations on December 14, 1939, but this had no effect on its actions.
Finland was forced to cede 10% of its territory, including Viipuri, and the Karelian Isthmus. The fighting ended with a peace treaty in which the area where 20% of industrial production was concentrated was ceded to the Soviet Union.
Transnistria is located in Moldova, which shares a border with Ukraine, which is currently undergoing an invasion. This is an area where pro-Russian forces within Moldova have declared independence. Of course, there is Russian support behind this. Georgia is also home to the pro-Russian Republic of South Ossetia. During the recent invasion of Ukraine, the Republic of South Ossetia announced that it would proceed with the process of becoming part of Russia.
The Korean War was fought in what is now North Korea, and the Vietnam War was fought in which the former Soviet Union supported the Northern Army, with the aim of building a socialist country. In other words, the objective is to establish a pro-Russian regime in Asia. This became Comintern's usual tactic. In China, the Chinese Communist Party won after a civil war between the two countries, resulting in the current China.
Since Russia is the largest country in the world, there are things that cannot be seen unless you look at the globe further apart. The method of the former Soviet Union and Russia is to support independent forces, pro-Russian forces, from behind and cause a civil war.
The 2014 Crimean Crisis occurred when the Russian military unilaterally invaded the Crimean Peninsula and held a referendum in an attempt to annex the pro-Russian forces living in the Crimean Peninsula to Russia. Following the recognition of the independence of the present-day Donetsk and Lugansk republics in the Donpass region, Russia has continued to invade from there, with the intention of making the entire southeastern part of Ukraine or east of the Dnieper River into Russian territory.
If we look at the country of Russia from this distance, surrounding regions become Russian forces through various methods of being incorporated or becoming independent, and Russia supports them from behind. Japan has the Northern Territories issue.
Looking at Russia's territorial expansion methods, Japan can only argue that it is a violation of international law because Russia invaded after the Potsdam Declaration, but from Russia's point of view, such things are something they always do, and I can't imagine Russia specifically returning the Northern Territories to Japan. Will Russia return the territory it has acquired in violation of international law? It wouldn't exist. It can be said that the very attempt to find a compromise with Russia over territorial issues is different.
Europe and Russia from World War II.Is a buffer zone necessary or not?
Europe's history is complicated.During World War II, the Soviet Union recorded the highest death toll in the world.It is said to be between 18,000,000 and 24,000,000.At that time, the Soviet Union had a population of 168,524,000, which meant that 13.6 percent to 14.2 percent of the population died in the war.The reason is that the Nazis are so strong that the rest of Europe is helpless.Churchill of England was afraid of the Nazi invasion and called Roosevelt of the U.S. to ask him to participate in the war, but Roosevelt refused and Churchill was unable to move for a while.
It was the Soviet Union that eventually prevented the Nazis from marching.As a result, the Soviet Union paid for such outstanding deaths.In this sense, Europe was saved from the Nazis by the Soviet Union.After the war, the Soviet Union took over half of Europe during the Cold War.NATO, led by the United States, was born in Western Europe.The United States did not participate in the European war and had no results at all.
The United States drove Japan to defeat and became the leader of liberal countries.Japan's death toll during the war was more than one-tenth that of the Soviet Union, or 3.6 to 4.3 percent of its population.You can see how many Soviet deaths occurred.The war in Japan, which ended in the United States, was not actually beneficial to Europe because Asian countries resisted colonial policies and gained independence one after another.
At least the Soviet Union, which achieved great results in the war in Europe, has collapsed since 1991, leaving no socialist countries in Europe.Putin has repeatedly opposed Ukraine's entry into NATO and said he was deceived by Europe.Russia wants Ukraine to remain a buffer zone.Conversely, is Europe planning to deploy NATO troops to the Russian border?Who do you think saved Europe?He may think that.
There is no doubt that Russia's actions this time clearly violate international law, but history gives me a complicated impression.What are the advantages of Ukraine joining NATO for NATO?
