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Taiwan is a keystone of the world economy. Asia - Europe liberal economic bloc to contain China.
The upcoming elections that will attract attention are the South Korean presidential election in 2022, the Philippine presidential election in 2022, the US presidential election in 2024, and the Taiwanese presidential election in 2024. Regarding the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea issues, the balance will change depending on who is the leader of the Philippines, the United States, and Taiwan.
Xi Jinping is expected to be re-elected in 2023. It will be interesting to see when Japan's constitutional revision will be proposed.
If you look at the world map, Taiwan is floating on both the Japanese side and the South China Sea.
If we misjudge these points in the Korean presidential election, the next five years may be even more difficult. If the United States were to become a Republican Party, the Philippines would secede from its China policy, and Taiwan would become a Democratic Progressive Party, capital would flee from pro-China South Korea and investment in Taiwan and other Southeast Asian countries would accelerate.
Once the Taiwan and South China Sea issues are resolved, the economic hot zone will move south. This area extends from Southeast Asia to Europe.
The reason why the UK is so proactive about these issues is because it wants to strengthen the unity of the Commonwealth of Nations and rebuild its economic foundations by leaving the EU. It is proposing an economic zone concept in which liberal countries would invest in the same area as One Belt, One Road.
There are Commonwealth countries along the way to the Pacific, the Quad and Europe. The British Commonwealth is made up of 54 countries. It is a huge federation that has been linked to former colonial powers, and has a population of 2.2 billion, which far exceeds that of China.
Africa used to be divided between Britain and France, but it has now been taken over by China. It is in Britain's interest to contain China to mainland China.
If that happens, the EU will also join. This is not to say that any country likes or supports China; the issue is the economy and money.
The Hong Kong issue was symbolic, but Britain's interests in various countries have been usurped by China.
The Japanese Embassy in Ukraine has been reduced and Japanese nationals have been advised to stop traveling.Russia besieges Kiev
After the U.S. and Britain decided to evacuate the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, Japan raised the level of risk information to the second highest level, urged all Japanese to evacuate the country, and reduced the function of the embassy.The U.S.-Russia foreign ministers' talks have virtually broken down, with Russian troops stationed near the Ukrainian border and in Belarus and Crimea, almost surrounding Kiev.
Ukraine's capital, Kiev, is 850 kilometers to Moscow, 150 kilometers to Belarus, and 350 kilometers to Russia.Ukraine is now far from Western Europe because it has only Ukrainian troops before joining NATO.Physically speaking, if Russian troops march, NATO will not be able to rescue them in time, and it will end in an instant.In chess, it's already clogged.On the other hand, if Ukraine joins NATO and NATO forces are stationed near the Russian border, NATO forces will be stationed close to Moscow, the capital.In other words, For Russia attack on Ukraine have to do before NATO membership.
Xi Jinping is the one who is interested in this situation.The United States has only proposed economic sanctions against Ukraine.In the event of an emergency in Taiwan, America's sincerity will be tested.Whether the U.S. will really send U.S. troops to war with nuclear-armed countries is .It is unclear whether the government will give up its territorial aggressionSince territorial expansion is a semi-permanent benefit, economic sanctions are short-term, and relations can be restored through various channels, will it be a deal?Russia was also subject to economic sanctions in the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
It is said that the attack on Ukraine is one of Putin's decisions.Ukraine is a region with great economic benefits for Russia, so there is widespread concern about advancing.
Secretary of State Brinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov meet in Switzerland on Ukraine issue.
U.S. Secretary of State Brinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met on the 21st to discuss the situation in Ukraine.The U.S. has agreed to respond to Russian demands, including NATO's non-expansion, next week and continue negotiations.
The U.S. seems to be avoiding immediate answers and continuing negotiations to avoid the Ukraine crisis.However, it is hard to believe that the U.S. side will accept Russia's request.This means that Ukraine should not join NATO.In the first place, Ukraine's will to join , so if the requirements for membership are met, the U.S. will find no reason to reject it.
From Russia's point of view, if Ukraine joins NATO, it will surround Russia and put pressure on it."Will Russia attack Ukraine begin?Russia's idea of gathering troops near the border is ", but Ukraine and Belarus are only buffer zones .The Warsaw Treaty Organization collapsed with the democratization of Eastern European countries, and the former East Europe entered almost Western Europe.What if Russia joins NATO?But it's not that easy to join the U.S. umbrella.
In any case, Russia's call for NATO not to put pressure on Russia remains unchanged, and future negotiations are drawing attention.
Although there are doubts about the significance of NATO's existence after the collapse of the Cold War, it has self-confident that it will maintain the world's liberal order.For Russia, it will be nothing more than a siege of Russia.
Will the Ukraine issue trigger NATO to expand to all Europe?Non - member countries are also moving.
North Macedonia March 27, 2020
Montenegro June 5, 2017
Albania 1 April 2009
Croatia 1 April 2009
Bulgaria 29 March 2004
Estonia March 29, 2004
Latvia March 29, 2004
Lithuania 29 March 2004
Romania 29 March 2004
Slovakia 29 March 2004
Slovenia 29 March 2004
Czech Republic 12 March 1999
Hungary 12 March 1999
Poland 12 March 1999
It is a country that joined NATO from the former East Jinning after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.Many European countries are now members of the TATO.NATO member states are bordered by Russia, Norway, Estonia, and Latvia, but none of the borders are long.
Belarus is a dictatorship, so let it go. Ukraine and Georgia are applying for NATO membership here, both of which border Russia.Ukraine's border with Russia is too long to reach 1,576 kilometers.It will be about 750km from Kharkov, Ukraine, to Moscow, and 870km from Kiev, Ukraine.
Russia is sending troops to 100,000 people near the Ukrainian border over Ukraine's application for NATO membership.On January 21st, Secretary of State Brinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov met in Switzerland, but ended in a parallel line and Russia expressed clear opposition to NATO's expansion to the east.In response, the U.S. avoided saying wisely and said it would answer next week.And on the 26th, Biden mentions economic sanctions against Putin individually.
If Russia gives up Ukraine under NATO pressure this time, non-NATO member countries Finland and Sweden will be able to join.FINANCIAL TIMES reported that discussions on the application for NATO membership in Finland and Sweden are rekindling.The issue could develop into a trend that includes not only Ukraine but also NATO, Russia and non-NATO members in Europe.If Russia abandons Ukraine, Russia will be completely isolated from European countries.
2,000 U.S. troops sent to Eastern Europe and 1,000 European troops moved to Romania and Ukraine was isolated.
President Biden announced on February 3 that he would send 2,000 U.S. troops to Eastern Europe and 1,000 U.S. troops stationed in Germany and other countries to Romania.At the same time, government officials announced that they would not participate in the Ukrainian battle.Europe has already announced that it will not send troops to Ukraine, and the U.S. has not offered any other card than economic sanctions, but this announcement shows that it will not send troops to Ukraine.
In other words, this is a matter between Russia and Ukraine , which is separated from each other.Ukraine's President Zelensky has not done anything about the crisis before joining NATO, resulting in the acceleration of Ukraine's crisis.
Ukraine will be excluded from the substantial preparation for membership (MAP) at the Bucharest Summit in April 2008, but it will be considered a future member.
Consolidated Crimea in March 2014.
In February 2019, President Zelenski revised the Constitution and clearly stated his policy toward future membership in the EU and NATO membership in NATO.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference after the extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in April 2021, Ukraine had the right to apply for membership.
In December 2021, Russia dispatched 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border.
Countries imposed economic sanctions on Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.As a result, Russia's economy was hit hard, but Ukraine's economy, which relies on Russia's economy, suffered a lot of damage.Ukraine's GDP dropped 7% in 2014, and Ukraine's currency, Fryvna, fell to 34.2 Fryvna against the dollar in February 2015.As a result, the Ukrainian government has adopted a surprising policy of raising interest rates by 30 percent.On 11 March 2015, the IMF agreed to provide the Ukrainian government with $17.5 billion in financial aid over a four-year period.
In other words, if NATO does not send troops to Ukraine, Ukraine will not be able to confront Russia, and if NATO does not withdraw its intention to join, Russia will attack and impose economic sanctions on Russia.So Ukraine will be the one who will fall into an economic crisis.Is there a secret plan for President Zelensky?I don't think there is.
It can be said that President Zelensky's reading of this incident was very lenient.If Ukraine attacks, it will be Ukraine that will fall into an economic crisis.
