Europe and Russia from World War II.Is a buffer zone necessary or not?
2022-02-24
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Soviet Union with the world's highest death.
Europe's history is complicated.During World War II, the Soviet Union recorded the highest death toll in the world.It is said to be between 18,000,000 and 24,000,000.At that time, the Soviet Union had a population of 168,524,000, which meant that 13.6 percent to 14.2 percent of the population died in the war.The reason is that the Nazis are so strong that the rest of Europe is helpless.Churchill of England was afraid of the Nazi invasion and called Roosevelt of the U.S. to ask him to participate in the war, but Roosevelt refused and Churchill was unable to move for a while.
The Soviet Union, which drove the Nazis to defeat and became the leader of Eastern Europe.
It was the Soviet Union that eventually prevented the Nazis from marching.As a result, the Soviet Union paid for such outstanding deaths.In this sense, Europe was saved from the Nazis by the Soviet Union.After the war, the Soviet Union took over half of Europe during the Cold War.NATO, led by the United States, was born in Western Europe.The United States did not participate in the European war and had no results at all.
The United States, which drove Japan to defeat and became the leader of liberal countries.
The United States drove Japan to defeat and became the leader of liberal countries.Japan's death toll during the war was more than one-tenth that of the Soviet Union, or 3.6 to 4.3 percent of its population.You can see how many Soviet deaths occurred.The war in Japan, which ended in the United States, was not actually beneficial to Europe because Asian countries resisted colonial policies and gained independence one after another.
What do you think of Russia from a historical perspective?
At least the Soviet Union, which achieved great results in the war in Europe, has collapsed since 1991, leaving no socialist countries in Europe.Putin has repeatedly opposed Ukraine's entry into NATO and said he was deceived by Europe.Russia wants Ukraine to remain a buffer zone.Conversely, is Europe planning to deploy NATO troops to the Russian border?Who do you think saved Europe?He may think that.
POINT There is no doubt that Russia's actions this time clearly violate international law, but history gives me a complicated impression.What are the advantages of Ukraine joining NATO for NATO?
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Read Russian intentions that are not reported in Japan from the Chinese media - What are they planning?
If you look at the Chinese media about the meeting between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Foreign Minister Lavrov, you can see something unexpected."The U.S. and its allies have declared a "full-fledged war" against Russia, which destroys Russia's economy, undermines Russia's domestic political stability, and ultimately pushes Russia outside the international community," he said.Lavrov also reported that Western attitudes toward Russia have reached the stage of blatant state-level robbery, confiscation of private property and refusal to fulfill their obligations in the financial and economic sectors.
In "Reference News", there are many cases in which Mr. Lavrov does not need to include the European Union or the United States, which helped Kiev in the conflict, in the peace process, and diplomats' achievements are undermined by Western countries.They reportedly said they could no longer be trusted.
Russian delegation leader Vladimir Mezinski has said the need for multilateral talks as a new framework for ensuring Ukraine's security during the ceasefire talks in Turkey, but it means that the U.S. and EU countries will not be included.And the fact that Western countries, including the U.S., and Japan, have declared a "full-fledged war" against Russia makes one wonder what the nature of the multilateral talks will be like.
There is a possibility that a group that draws in China and excludes Western countries will make some kind of deal.
Kazakh President Tokayev disapproves of pro - Russian armed groups in front of Putin - Russia threatens.
Moving to countries surrounding Russia
Trend of democracy in Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan was a nuclear state
Declares disapproval in front of Putin
Russian threats
Military invasion just by saying something?
Strategic satellite state withdrawal
The withdrawal of the former Soviet Union's satellite states from Russia is becoming more and more obvious. Ukraine is currently at war with Russia and the other is Kazakhstan.
In Kazakhstan, a referendum was held on June 5th to decide whether or not to amend the constitution, and the proposed amendment was approved. The bill aims to eliminate the influence of former President Nazarbayev, who held power for many years, and 77.18% of voters supported the bill, which led to former President Nazarbayev retiring from politics.
The current constitution grants Nazarbayev, who retired in 2019, a special status as the country's first president and "father of the nation," but the proposed constitutional amendment deletes related provisions. According to the Election Commission, the turnout reached 68.1%.
Electoral system reform will also take place at the same time, and is expected to be a step toward democratization in Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan is one of the countries that became independent from the former Soviet Union after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Because strategic nuclear weapons were deployed in the region, it automatically became a nuclear-weapon state. Ukraine and Belarus also became independent countries while possessing nuclear weapons, but all three countries abandoned their nuclear weapons when they ratified the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
On the other hand, these regions are strategically important to Moscow in relation to NATO, and that is why Russia is so fixated on Ukraine.
On June 17, Kazakhstan's current President Tokayev spoke at a plenary session of the International Economic Forum held in St. Petersburg, northwestern Russia, where Russian President Putin was also present. ” Kazakhstan indicated that it would not recognize it as an official state. That's exactly what he denied in front of Mr. Putin..
He implicitly criticized Russia for its strict control over speech, saying, ``Kazakhs are an open civil society, and the people have a variety of opinions regarding (Russia's) special military operations.'' In response, on June 18, Mr. Zatulin, a senior member of Russia's ruling party United Russia, said, ``This is a challenge to Russia,'' and ``problems similar to Ukraine could occur in Kazakhs,'' blatantly. He is making serious threats.
To put it simply, Russia's disapproval of pro-Russian armed groups and a series of statements reveal that Russia is not only willing to launch a military invasion, but is also a country that will immediately send troops if it doesn't like it. That's why I don't think he's insane.
In any case, Russia is absolutely pro-Russian and wants to control Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan as satellite states.
Kazakhstan was not one of the five countries that voted against the United Nations resolution condemning Russia, which was adopted on March 2, and abstained.
When partial mobilization order turns into martial law, it's Russia's state of war - Putin hints at using nuclear weapons.
Russia envisions using nuclear weapons
Russia is not yet at war
If there is a state of war, martial law will be declared
Countries must refrain from using nuclear weapons
The recent referendum and partial mobilization order in eastern Ukraine appear to be creating the preconditions for the use of nuclear weapons. This does not mean that they are planning to use nuclear weapons, but only as a prerequisite. "If Russia's territorial integrity is threatened, we will use all means to protect Russia and its people. This is not a bluff," Putin stressed.
Until now, Russia has carried out military invasions of Ukraine in the name of peacekeeping operations. That means it's not a war. Ukraine was attacked by Russia and a general mobilization order was imposed, leading to a war for national defense. If, as a result of the recent referendum in eastern Ukraine, these areas are declared Russian territory, an attack on this area would be an attack on Russian territory. In other words, the phase will be raised to a state of war for Russia.
In such a case, rather than partial mobilization, martial law would be imposed and the president would assume command powers that go beyond the Russian constitution. The use of nuclear weapons presupposes a state of war and a military attack on Russia, which means that the prerequisites are in place. The key question now seems to be whether Russia will declare a state of war.
U.S. presidential aide Sullivan said on the 25th, ``If Russia were to use nuclear weapons, it would have catastrophic consequences,'' and Ukrainian presidential advisor Podlyak said, ``Russia would not be able to respond tactically or strategically based on the doctrine of nuclear deterrence.'' "The international community should clearly declare that if there is an attempt to use nuclear weapons, we will immediately launch a joint nuclear attack on nuclear weapons facilities in Russia. This is a decision made by the global community, not by Ukraine." did. Russian stocks have already plunged in the market due to concerns about the possibility of Russia imposing martial law.
Putin cannot declare martial law across Russia. CSTO - Security system collapsing from outside.
Dismantling the Warsaw Pact
CSTO is an alliance of the former Soviet Union
Border lines and security issues
Martial law limited due to lack of troops
Does CSTO really work
Declaration of war highlights desperate isolation
After democratization, Gorbachev dismantled the Warsaw Pact. Since there is no longer a military alliance to compete with NATO, Russia claims that the West rejected the proposal to disband NATO, and in return there was a secret agreement not to expand NATO eastward, but this is not certain. For some reason, Gorbachev died during the Ukraine war.
What the media doesn't talk about much is the CSTO, a collective security system established in 1992 in the former Soviet Union. Although the size of Russia is that of the former Soviet Union, if you check the CSTO member countries on a map, you will see that Russia geopolitically does not share borders with NATO countries. What disrupted this balance was the Baltic states joining NATO, but their national power was small and their borders were short. Meanwhile, the Georgia War breaks out in the south.
The Ukraine war thus occurred as a result of Russia's opposition to NATO's direct border with Russia. However, this is only Russia's claim. As a result, the invasion of Ukraine led to Finland applying to join NATO, leading to a future in which a vast border bordered the country west of Putin's hometown of St. Petersburg.
President Putin annexed four eastern Ukrainian regions and declared martial law. Russian soldiers were short of manpower, and despite a partial mobilization order, many fled the country. The attack on four Ukrainian regions was considered an attack on Russian territory, and martial law was declared for all of Russia, but it turned out to be only the four eastern regions of Ukraine. Apparently it doesn't work.
In addition to domestic political issues, there is also the existence of CSTO. Of the six member states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Armenia have declared their neutrality on the Ukraine issue. It is unclear whether this means Russia's neutrality toward special military operations or toward a state of war. I tried looking for something similar to NATO Article 5 regarding the conditions for activating the CSTO collective security system, but I couldn't find anything. Under the pretense that Russia is under attack, Mr. Putin declares a state of war and imposes martial law, and if the CSTO does not take action, this collective security system will collapse.
The focus will likely be on whether Putin declares a state of war and acknowledges that Russia is under attack. The condition for using nuclear weapons is that Russia's survival is in danger, but at least that condition is not currently met. A declaration of war could lead to a hopeless checkmate for Russia.
Mobilization order for 300,000 people issued in Russia - President Putin expands invasion of Ukraine.
Partial mobilization order for 300,000 people
Economic benefits from acquired territory
On a national scale, the lost population will be returned
A meaningless claim that it is okay to give up the country
Ukraine aims to regain territory
Russia has received various criticisms over its decision to issue a mobilization order for 300,000 people. A referendum was held in southeastern Ukraine, which has become an international issue as it violates the United Nations Charter. The least we can say is that in response to the economic sanctions imposed by each country on Russia, Russia will try to recoup its losses by reaping economic benefits from the areas it has invaded in the medium to long term.
Suppose you suddenly acquire 100 m2 of land. If you grow rice there, how much profit will you make each year?If you grow wheat there, how much profit will you make? What would be the cumulative profit if this continued for 50 years? And will economic sanctions from other countries still continue 50 years from now?
Will the 300,000 conscripted soldiers in Russia never return? Suppose they all died in battle. Given the national economy, these 300,000 people will return. After a major war, a region may experience population growth to compensate for the lost population. The first baby boom occurred in Japan. In other words, in terms of the nation, 300,000 people will be revived.
There was someone who complained that the leader of some idiot political party in Japan would be fine if they gave away at least one of Japan's remote islands. That's completely stupid. Humankind's wars have been carried out based on this kind of time axis calculation. Criticism of the war will eventually be adjusted. The core of this is the national land that will benefit us forever in the future.
Currently, the media is reporting that Ukraine is in the ascendant, but the actual conclusion will differ depending on what you consider as a yardstick. The least we can say is that in order to make Russia's war meaningless and null and void, we must recapture all of the Ukrainian territory that was taken by Russia. Russia will only lose and gain nothing.
