Putin's approval rating reaches ８３% - Contradictions are scattered in intelligence warfare reported by each country by country.
2022-04-03
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President Putin's approval rating reaches 83%
According to a private polling agency, Putin's approval rating is 83%. It is said that this is a survey conducted by a private research company called "Repara Center", a company that usually gives strict survey results to the government. However, it is doubtful how credible it is because it is an opinion poll while information control is being carried out, but there is no mistake that it is rising as a trend, says Yu Koizumi of the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo. And when watching TV in Russia, it is reported that the war has been successful, such as the invasion of Russia destroying many Ukrainian military facilities, and it is natural that the Russian people support this.
The price of the ruble has recovered
Currently, the Western reports are exactly the opposite, Russia's economic sanctions are in effect, so the economic collapse is imminent, the invasion continues to fail and is in a stalemate, and the anti-war consciousness has increased in Russia, which is Putin. It is reported that the administration will be destroyed. Although there are many doubts in the Russian media, it is only one indicator as an objective fact, but when looking at the Russian economy in foreign exchange, it plummeted to 140 rubles per dollar on March 7, but it has rebounded and is now. Is approaching normal prices with 83.98 rubles . At least it doesn't look like it's on the verge of bankruptcy.
It is necessary to compare information from each company and each country
In any case, the war is currently underway, and it seems that the people of the world are in the propaganda strategies of both sides. The people have no choice but to watch over this war while receiving media reports. When looking at the reports of each country including Japan, there are many inconsistencies such as what is reported as an objective fact, the views conveyed by the media, the information conveyed by other countries, and the future direction. In the first place, only the military authorities should have a concrete grasp of the state of the war, and since much of the information is military secrets , we are like a live broadcast. There is no way we can confirm the war situation. At the very least, we have to compare the reports of each country and delete the inconsistent information.
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Putin cannot declare martial law across Russia. CSTO - Security system collapsing from outside.
Dismantling the Warsaw Pact
CSTO is an alliance of the former Soviet Union
Border lines and security issues
Martial law limited due to lack of troops
Does CSTO really work
Declaration of war highlights desperate isolation
After democratization, Gorbachev dismantled the Warsaw Pact. Since there is no longer a military alliance to compete with NATO, Russia claims that the West rejected the proposal to disband NATO, and in return there was a secret agreement not to expand NATO eastward, but this is not certain. For some reason, Gorbachev died during the Ukraine war.
What the media doesn't talk about much is the CSTO, a collective security system established in 1992 in the former Soviet Union. Although the size of Russia is that of the former Soviet Union, if you check the CSTO member countries on a map, you will see that Russia geopolitically does not share borders with NATO countries. What disrupted this balance was the Baltic states joining NATO, but their national power was small and their borders were short. Meanwhile, the Georgia War breaks out in the south.
The Ukraine war thus occurred as a result of Russia's opposition to NATO's direct border with Russia. However, this is only Russia's claim. As a result, the invasion of Ukraine led to Finland applying to join NATO, leading to a future in which a vast border bordered the country west of Putin's hometown of St. Petersburg.
President Putin annexed four eastern Ukrainian regions and declared martial law. Russian soldiers were short of manpower, and despite a partial mobilization order, many fled the country. The attack on four Ukrainian regions was considered an attack on Russian territory, and martial law was declared for all of Russia, but it turned out to be only the four eastern regions of Ukraine. Apparently it doesn't work.
In addition to domestic political issues, there is also the existence of CSTO. Of the six member states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Armenia have declared their neutrality on the Ukraine issue. It is unclear whether this means Russia's neutrality toward special military operations or toward a state of war. I tried looking for something similar to NATO Article 5 regarding the conditions for activating the CSTO collective security system, but I couldn't find anything. Under the pretense that Russia is under attack, Mr. Putin declares a state of war and imposes martial law, and if the CSTO does not take action, this collective security system will collapse.
The focus will likely be on whether Putin declares a state of war and acknowledges that Russia is under attack. The condition for using nuclear weapons is that Russia's survival is in danger, but at least that condition is not currently met. A declaration of war could lead to a hopeless checkmate for Russia.
If the Northern Territories are viewed as a regional issue around Russia, it is very doubtful whether they will be returned.
Looking to the west of Russia
Finland lost 10% of its land
Pro-Russian forces in Moldova and Georgia
Korean War, Vietnam War, and Communist Civil War
Create a civil war, stage it, and advance
Ukraine issue and Northern Territories issue
Is Japan's territorial issue a diplomatic card?
War between Finland and the Soviet Union broke out on November 30, 1939. The Soviet Union invaded Finland after its border guards came under fire from Finnish troops. The Soviet Union was condemned by the international community for its apparent acts of aggression and was expelled from the League of Nations on December 14, 1939, but this had no effect on its actions.
Finland was forced to cede 10% of its territory, including Viipuri, and the Karelian Isthmus. The fighting ended with a peace treaty in which the area where 20% of industrial production was concentrated was ceded to the Soviet Union.
Transnistria is located in Moldova, which shares a border with Ukraine, which is currently undergoing an invasion. This is an area where pro-Russian forces within Moldova have declared independence. Of course, there is Russian support behind this. Georgia is also home to the pro-Russian Republic of South Ossetia. During the recent invasion of Ukraine, the Republic of South Ossetia announced that it would proceed with the process of becoming part of Russia.
The Korean War was fought in what is now North Korea, and the Vietnam War was fought in which the former Soviet Union supported the Northern Army, with the aim of building a socialist country. In other words, the objective is to establish a pro-Russian regime in Asia. This became Comintern's usual tactic. In China, the Chinese Communist Party won after a civil war between the two countries, resulting in the current China.
Since Russia is the largest country in the world, there are things that cannot be seen unless you look at the globe further apart. The method of the former Soviet Union and Russia is to support independent forces, pro-Russian forces, from behind and cause a civil war.
The 2014 Crimean Crisis occurred when the Russian military unilaterally invaded the Crimean Peninsula and held a referendum in an attempt to annex the pro-Russian forces living in the Crimean Peninsula to Russia. Following the recognition of the independence of the present-day Donetsk and Lugansk republics in the Donpass region, Russia has continued to invade from there, with the intention of making the entire southeastern part of Ukraine or east of the Dnieper River into Russian territory.
If we look at the country of Russia from this distance, surrounding regions become Russian forces through various methods of being incorporated or becoming independent, and Russia supports them from behind. Japan has the Northern Territories issue.
Looking at Russia's territorial expansion methods, Japan can only argue that it is a violation of international law because Russia invaded after the Potsdam Declaration, but from Russia's point of view, such things are something they always do, and I can't imagine Russia specifically returning the Northern Territories to Japan. Will Russia return the territory it has acquired in violation of international law? It wouldn't exist. It can be said that the very attempt to find a compromise with Russia over territorial issues is different.
When partial mobilization order turns into martial law, it's Russia's state of war - Putin hints at using nuclear weapons.
Russia envisions using nuclear weapons
Russia is not yet at war
If there is a state of war, martial law will be declared
Countries must refrain from using nuclear weapons
The recent referendum and partial mobilization order in eastern Ukraine appear to be creating the preconditions for the use of nuclear weapons. This does not mean that they are planning to use nuclear weapons, but only as a prerequisite. "If Russia's territorial integrity is threatened, we will use all means to protect Russia and its people. This is not a bluff," Putin stressed.
Until now, Russia has carried out military invasions of Ukraine in the name of peacekeeping operations. That means it's not a war. Ukraine was attacked by Russia and a general mobilization order was imposed, leading to a war for national defense. If, as a result of the recent referendum in eastern Ukraine, these areas are declared Russian territory, an attack on this area would be an attack on Russian territory. In other words, the phase will be raised to a state of war for Russia.
In such a case, rather than partial mobilization, martial law would be imposed and the president would assume command powers that go beyond the Russian constitution. The use of nuclear weapons presupposes a state of war and a military attack on Russia, which means that the prerequisites are in place. The key question now seems to be whether Russia will declare a state of war.
U.S. presidential aide Sullivan said on the 25th, ``If Russia were to use nuclear weapons, it would have catastrophic consequences,'' and Ukrainian presidential advisor Podlyak said, ``Russia would not be able to respond tactically or strategically based on the doctrine of nuclear deterrence.'' "The international community should clearly declare that if there is an attempt to use nuclear weapons, we will immediately launch a joint nuclear attack on nuclear weapons facilities in Russia. This is a decision made by the global community, not by Ukraine." did. Russian stocks have already plunged in the market due to concerns about the possibility of Russia imposing martial law.
Read Russian intentions that are not reported in Japan from the Chinese media - What are they planning?
If you look at the Chinese media about the meeting between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Foreign Minister Lavrov, you can see something unexpected."The U.S. and its allies have declared a "full-fledged war" against Russia, which destroys Russia's economy, undermines Russia's domestic political stability, and ultimately pushes Russia outside the international community," he said.Lavrov also reported that Western attitudes toward Russia have reached the stage of blatant state-level robbery, confiscation of private property and refusal to fulfill their obligations in the financial and economic sectors.
In "Reference News", there are many cases in which Mr. Lavrov does not need to include the European Union or the United States, which helped Kiev in the conflict, in the peace process, and diplomats' achievements are undermined by Western countries.They reportedly said they could no longer be trusted.
Russian delegation leader Vladimir Mezinski has said the need for multilateral talks as a new framework for ensuring Ukraine's security during the ceasefire talks in Turkey, but it means that the U.S. and EU countries will not be included.And the fact that Western countries, including the U.S., and Japan, have declared a "full-fledged war" against Russia makes one wonder what the nature of the multilateral talks will be like.
There is a possibility that a group that draws in China and excludes Western countries will make some kind of deal.
Mobilization order for 300,000 people issued in Russia - President Putin expands invasion of Ukraine.
Partial mobilization order for 300,000 people
Economic benefits from acquired territory
On a national scale, the lost population will be returned
A meaningless claim that it is okay to give up the country
Ukraine aims to regain territory
Russia has received various criticisms over its decision to issue a mobilization order for 300,000 people. A referendum was held in southeastern Ukraine, which has become an international issue as it violates the United Nations Charter. The least we can say is that in response to the economic sanctions imposed by each country on Russia, Russia will try to recoup its losses by reaping economic benefits from the areas it has invaded in the medium to long term.
Suppose you suddenly acquire 100 m2 of land. If you grow rice there, how much profit will you make each year?If you grow wheat there, how much profit will you make? What would be the cumulative profit if this continued for 50 years? And will economic sanctions from other countries still continue 50 years from now?
Will the 300,000 conscripted soldiers in Russia never return? Suppose they all died in battle. Given the national economy, these 300,000 people will return. After a major war, a region may experience population growth to compensate for the lost population. The first baby boom occurred in Japan. In other words, in terms of the nation, 300,000 people will be revived.
There was someone who complained that the leader of some idiot political party in Japan would be fine if they gave away at least one of Japan's remote islands. That's completely stupid. Humankind's wars have been carried out based on this kind of time axis calculation. Criticism of the war will eventually be adjusted. The core of this is the national land that will benefit us forever in the future.
Currently, the media is reporting that Ukraine is in the ascendant, but the actual conclusion will differ depending on what you consider as a yardstick. The least we can say is that in order to make Russia's war meaningless and null and void, we must recapture all of the Ukrainian territory that was taken by Russia. Russia will only lose and gain nothing.
