Taiwan is a keystone of the world economy. Asia - Europe liberal economic bloc to contain China.
2021-12-03
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Future elections that will affect the world situation
The upcoming elections that will attract attention are the South Korean presidential election in 2022, the Philippine presidential election in 2022, the US presidential election in 2024, and the Taiwanese presidential election in 2024. Regarding the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea issues, the balance will change depending on who is the leader of the Philippines, the United States, and Taiwan.
Xi Jinping is expected to be re-elected in 2023. It will be interesting to see when Japan's constitutional revision will be proposed.
MEMO If you look at the world map, Taiwan is floating on both the Japanese side and the South China Sea.
If we misjudge the situation, South Korea will become isolated
If we misjudge these points in the Korean presidential election, the next five years may be even more difficult. If the United States were to become a Republican Party, the Philippines would secede from its China policy, and Taiwan would become a Democratic Progressive Party, capital would flee from pro-China South Korea and investment in Taiwan and other Southeast Asian countries would accelerate.
MEMO Once the Taiwan and South China Sea issues are resolved, the economic hot zone will move south. This area extends from Southeast Asia to Europe.
Why the UK is proactive
The reason why the UK is so proactive about these issues is because it wants to strengthen the unity of the Commonwealth of Nations and rebuild its economic foundations by leaving the EU. It is proposing an economic zone concept in which liberal countries would invest in the same area as One Belt, One Road.
There are Commonwealth countries along the way to the Pacific, the Quad and Europe. The British Commonwealth is made up of 54 countries . It is a huge federation that has been linked to former colonial powers, and has a population of 2.2 billion, which far exceeds that of China.
Many British interests were stolen by China
Africa used to be divided between Britain and France, but it has now been taken over by China. It is in Britain's interest to contain China to mainland China.
If that happens, the EU will also join. This is not to say that any country likes or supports China; the issue is the economy and money.
POINT The Hong Kong issue was symbolic, but Britain's interests in various countries have been usurped by China.
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The Japanese Embassy in Ukraine has been reduced and Japanese nationals have been advised to stop traveling.Russia besieges Kiev
After the U.S. and Britain decided to evacuate the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, Japan raised the level of risk information to the second highest level, urged all Japanese to evacuate the country, and reduced the function of the embassy.The U.S.-Russia foreign ministers' talks have virtually broken down, with Russian troops stationed near the Ukrainian border and in Belarus and Crimea, almost surrounding Kiev.
Ukraine's capital, Kiev, is 850 kilometers to Moscow, 150 kilometers to Belarus, and 350 kilometers to Russia.Ukraine is now far from Western Europe because it has only Ukrainian troops before joining NATO.Physically speaking, if Russian troops march, NATO will not be able to rescue them in time, and it will end in an instant.In chess, it's already clogged.On the other hand, if Ukraine joins NATO and NATO forces are stationed near the Russian border, NATO forces will be stationed close to Moscow, the capital.In other words, For Russia attack on Ukraine have to do before NATO membership.
Xi Jinping is the one who is interested in this situation.The United States has only proposed economic sanctions against Ukraine.In the event of an emergency in Taiwan, America's sincerity will be tested.Whether the U.S. will really send U.S. troops to war with nuclear-armed countries is .It is unclear whether the government will give up its territorial aggressionSince territorial expansion is a semi-permanent benefit, economic sanctions are short-term, and relations can be restored through various channels, will it be a deal?Russia was also subject to economic sanctions in the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
It is said that the attack on Ukraine is one of Putin's decisions.Ukraine is a region with great economic benefits for Russia, so there is widespread concern about advancing.
Secretary of State Brinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov meet in Switzerland on Ukraine issue.
U.S. Secretary of State Brinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met on the 21st to discuss the situation in Ukraine.The U.S. has agreed to respond to Russian demands, including NATO's non-expansion, next week and continue negotiations.
The U.S. seems to be avoiding immediate answers and continuing negotiations to avoid the Ukraine crisis.However, it is hard to believe that the U.S. side will accept Russia's request.This means that Ukraine should not join NATO.In the first place, Ukraine's will to join , so if the requirements for membership are met, the U.S. will find no reason to reject it.
From Russia's point of view, if Ukraine joins NATO, it will surround Russia and put pressure on it."Will Russia attack Ukraine begin?Russia's idea of gathering troops near the border is ", but Ukraine and Belarus are only buffer zones .The Warsaw Treaty Organization collapsed with the democratization of Eastern European countries, and the former East Europe entered almost Western Europe.What if Russia joins NATO?But it's not that easy to join the U.S. umbrella.
In any case, Russia's call for NATO not to put pressure on Russia remains unchanged, and future negotiations are drawing attention.
Although there are doubts about the significance of NATO's existence after the collapse of the Cold War, it has self-confident that it will maintain the world's liberal order.For Russia, it will be nothing more than a siege of Russia.
The rise of the Nazis and the slaughter of Jews.What does it have to do with the annexation of Japan and South Korea?They scream that it's the same in Korea.
The birth of Jesus Christ.It was the Pharisees (Jews) who persecuted Christianity.
Jews assimilate and live in the Christian culture.
Germany lost World War I in 1918.A huge amount of compensation will be imposed.
With the Great Depression of 1920 and social unrest in the background, the National Socialist German Workers' Party led by Adolf Hitler entered.
Hitler started inciting the people by shouting that Jews are our enemies and the cause of misfortune.
When capitalism was uncivilized, Jews ran "money lending" businesses that were despised at that time.
In 1932, the Nazi Party made a breakthrough into the leading party.
In 1933, Hitler became prime minister.
In the same year, the Plenipotentiary Delegation Act was passed.Hitler became president.
In 1935, a law prohibiting Jews from marrying non-Jews was passed (Nuremberg Race Act).
Germany annexed Austria in 1938.
In 1938, the Nazi Raiders attacked the Imperial Pogrom Night.About 30,000 Jewish victims will be sent to concentration camps.
The German invasion of Poland in 1939.During the Nazi occupation, laws were enacted to discriminate against Jews."Ghettoes" were created in various places to isolate Jews, and Warsaw was packed with about 450,000 people (30% of the city's population) in just 2.4% of the city's area.
In 1941, Ainzaz Gruppen attacked a Jewish village in Soviet territory, hunting and killing all adults and children.
How Nazi officials gathered in Vanzey, a suburb of Berlin, in 1942 to effectively kill Jews all over Europe.Created "Final Resolution of the Jewish Problem" (Vansay Conference).
Auschwitz camp was built in Poland.The first poison gas killing in four months of the Vansay Conference.1.1 million people are said to have been killed in Auschwitz.
Korea is said to have suffered the same damage as the Nazis from Japan.It is said that the Nazis killed about six million Jews.Let's find out what we have in common with the annexation of Japan and South Korea.
Finland's Prime Minister Marin is eager to join NATO Conclusion in a few weeks - Russia strengthens its armament in the Baltic Sea. Finland is eager to join NATO
Finland's Prime Minister Marin announced his willingness to join NATO on the 13th. He will reach a conclusion in a few weeks through Congress. He has remained neutral so as not to inspire Russia, but he also said that this Russian action changed his mind. In contrast, he is one of Russia's closest aides to President Vladimir Putin, and Dmitry Medvejev, vice-chairman of the Security Council, said on the 14th that Russia and Finland will join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on the 14th. Warned that it was necessary to increase defense capabilities in the region, and also suggested the deployment of nuclear weapons.
Russia strengthens its armament in the Baltic Sea
What is the Baltic Sea armament? Kaliningrad. Russia has an enlave in the area facing the Baltic Sea between Lithuania and Poland, the three Baltic states. It would be to deploy nuclear weapons here. Medvejev argues that Russia must strengthen its army, navy and air force in the Baltic Sea to restore military equilibrium. Finland borders Russia on a long border, and even Moscow is just over 1,000 km away. The location is just a stone's throw from St. Petersburg. However, Kaliningrad is an excursion, and Russia cannot access it without going through Lithuania at present. It can be said that the location is even more difficult than in Ukraine.
Russia is the Black Sea and NATO is the Baltic Sea
If Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia is likely to be more hurt than Ukraine. Russia is currently capturing southern Ukraine with the aim of influencing the Black Sea, but with the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, NATO will acquire the Baltic Sea. And Kaliningrad will be an outlying area completely isolated from Russia. Russia may be trying to defend itself by deploying nuclear weapons so that Kaliningrad cannot be taken.
NATO will not send troops to Ukraine.a segregated UkraineWas there no prior negotiation?
Ukrainian President Zelensky urged Western leaders not to create panic as if Russia were about to attack.The withdrawal of Ukrainian foreign capital seems to be aimed at curbing the economic impact.
NATO has announced that it will not send troops to Ukraine, and the United States has only proposed economic sanctions.The current situation is that Ukraine has become separated from the military.The issue originated from Ukraine's application for NATO membership, but the move is aimed at pushing back.In other words, Ukraine has no choice but to withdraw its application for NATO membership in order to avoid an invasion of Russia.If Ukraine does not withdraw its application, the U.S. and NATO forces will not enter Ukraine even if Russia attacks.
There are many questions about the statement that Europe and the U.S. are creating panic.If Russia attacks, it will be far from an economy.That is why countries are withdrawing from Ukraine.Zelenski was a comedian and gained popularity and became president.The application for NATO membership may be as desired, but it is highly questionable whether has established cooperation with related countries in advance.
I understand why Ukraine wants to join NATO for fear that Russia will take over Crimea in 2014, but I wonder if it didn't expect the current situation.Russia is expected to attack before joining NATO.This is probably Mr. Zelensky's apparent mistake.
Ukraine has applied for NATO membership, but NATO will not dispatch troops.I think this should be negotiated in advance.
