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![台湾国民党首席朱立倫]()
Xi Jinping sends a congratulatory message to Taiwan Nationalist Party Chairman Zhu Li-Lun - The purpose of shaking Taiwanese public opinion is the 2024 Taiwan presidential election.
Xi Jinping sent a telegram of congratulations to Mr. Zhu Li-Lun, who took office as the head of the Taiwan Nationalist Party on September 26th, and expressed that both parties share a common political commitment to oppose Taiwan's independence, aiming for peace in the Taiwan Strait, national reunification, and national rejuvenation. He expressed his hope for cooperation on this basis. Mr. Zhu Lilun said that in recent years, under the Democratic Progressive Party government, ``anti-China'' policies were adopted, which led to the deterioration of the situation on both sides of the strait. He responded that he opposed Taiwanese independence and wanted to deepen cooperation while respecting each other's differences. In other words, both sides confirmed that the current Taiwan Strait issue was caused by the Democratic Progressive Party, which denies the ``92 common sense'' and ``one country, two systems.''
Xi Jinping and the Nationalist Party have concluded that the Taiwan Strait issue is an issue caused by President Tsai Ing-wen and the independence faction of the Democratic Progressive Party.
Although the Biden administration's Taiwan Strait policy appears to be a continuation of the Trump administration, it is actually different. Biden, don't cause trouble while he's president. It looks like that's all he's saying. Indo-Pacific Coordinator Campbell's statement that he does not support Taiwan's independence is not the government's official position, but does this mean that even if Taiwan were to declare independence, it would not recognize it? The idea is to maintain three joint communiques.
The three joint communiqués are a compilation of the 1972 dialogue between President Nixon and Prime Minister Chou Enlai.
Let's assume that relations between China and Taiwan proceed peacefully until the next Taiwan presidential election in 2024, as Xi Jinping said. If the Democratic Progressive Party advocates Taiwan independence during the presidential election, the Kuomintang is sure to stir up public opinion by repeatedly attacking them and asking why they are making claims that would lead to war when peace has finally come. Chinese hackers will attack the PCs of Democratic Progressive Party members to sniff out scandals, and they will interfere in elections in every possible way.
Elections are only a process, not a goal. Unless a declaration of independence is drafted, this problem will arise every time Taiwan has a presidential election. The Biden administration in the United States will run until January 2025. What would it mean for Xi Jinping if Trump were to return to office? Xi Jinping has his sights firmly set on Taiwan's 2024 presidential election.
While the Taiwan Strait issue will end with Taiwan's declaration of independence, it is highly likely that it will lead to war.
![集団的自衛権は台湾有]()
The right of collective self-defense assumes a Taiwanese emergency - Former Prime Minister Aso mentioned the possibility that an invasion of Taiwan would extend to the waters near the Senkaku Islands.
On July 5, former Prime Minister Aso gave a speech in Tokyo, stating that if China were to invade Taiwan, it would be recognized as an ``existence-endangering situation'' under national security-related laws, and the right of collective self-defense could be exercised to a limited extent. He acknowledged that it was possible. Currently, Japan does not recognize Taiwan as a state, so Taiwan itself is outside the scope of the right of collective self-defense, but both China and Taiwan claim territorial rights to the Senkaku Islands, and China has made an armed invasion of Taiwan. It can be interpreted to include the Senkaku Islands if a naval blockade of Taiwan is implemented.
Will the premise be that the right of collective self-defense will be exercised under the condition that the United States enters the war, or will the Japan-U.S. alliance be activated while Japan exercises its right of self-defense in the event of a naval blockade? Is it? The United States uses the name Taiwan as a military name. The Biden administration has announced that there will be no change in its interpretation of the One China Policy. On the other hand, Japan has confirmed that the defense of the Senkaku Islands falls within the scope of the Japan-US Security Treaty. Regarding the defense of Taiwan, although the U.S.-Taiwan Relations Act mentions the provision of weapons, it does not specify whether the U.S. military will be involved in the defense of Taiwan, leaving some ambiguity.
If China were to invade Taiwan, there is a possibility that Japan would join the war, assuming that the U.S. military would join the war.
Considering the meaning of Deputy Prime Minister Aso's remarks, it is unlikely that they will be put into action unless they include military exercises between Japan, the United States, and Taiwan. Without military exercises, there is no way that the right of collective self-defense would be accompanied by the power to implement it. This will be a major focus in the future. We may see the Self-Defense Forces entering Taiwan for military exercises.
The US military has announced that it is conducting joint military exercises with Taiwan. It is not possible to create an action plan without conducting military exercises on-site to determine what kind of operations could be carried out in the terrain and environment of Taiwan's west coast in the event of an actual battle. There needs to be a concrete discussion about what is necessary for Japan to exercise its right of collective self-defense.
In order to exercise the right of collective self-defense, the Self-Defense Forces will need military training that simulates the Taiwan Strait in order to function effectively.
![台湾が国連を脱退した]()
The day Taiwan withdrew from the UN ~ Still unable to rejoin | Will anything happen with the return of the Trump administration?
Japan does not recognize North Korea as a state, but there are 151 countries that do, and North Korea is also a member of the United Nations. For this reason, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs lists the number of countries in the world as 196, excluding North Korea, but in certified textbooks, it seems to be written as 197, including North Korea, considering that North Korea is a member of the United Nations. The difference with Taiwan is the number of countries that recognize it as a state and whether it is a member of the United Nations or not.
Currently, there are 13 countries that recognize Taiwan as a state, and Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations. The fact that there are 13 countries that recognize Taiwan as a state means that Taiwan is a country for those 13 countries, and that they have embassies and diplomatic relations. So what about the fact that it is not a member of the United Nations?
Currently, there are 195 countries that Japan recognizes as states, and among them, the Vatican, Kosovo, Cook Islands, and Niue are not members of the United Nations. However, Japan has diplomatic relations with them and officially recognizes them as states. In that case, whether or not a country is a member of the United Nations does not determine whether it is a country or not, but rather seems to depend solely on whether or not countries recognize it as a country. How is a country defined internationally? This is shown in the 1933 "Montevideo Convention," which lists the following requirements for statehood: 1. Permanent population, 2. Clear territory, 3. Government, and 4. Ability to have relations with other countries.
Looking at Taiwan, it is considered to meet all of the requirements of this treaty. There are 13 countries with which it has diplomatic relations, and it seems that how to evaluate the ability to have relations with other countries is a question, but this is largely due to the fact that China is hindering it internationally and it cannot establish diplomatic relations. Considering the national requirements shown in the Montevideo Convention, Taiwan meets the national requirements and is recognized as a country by 13 countries, and the reason this number does not increase is because of interference from China, and it cannot join the United Nations for the same purpose. It would be correct to see it this way.
The UN membership conditions require the approval of 9 of the 15 council members, and if even one of the permanent members opposes, the recommendation for membership cannot be made, so as long as China is a permanent member, it will not be possible for Taiwan to join the UN. So has Taiwan never been able to join the UN? Not at all. It's strange that it's not often mentioned in Japan, but Taiwan was a permanent member of the UN.
At the end of the war, Japan accepted the Potsdam Declaration, but the countries listed as counterparts were the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Republic of China. This is the Republic of China in Taiwan today. After the war, the United Nations was established in 1945, and the Republic of China, led by Chiang Kai-shek, was the permanent member at that time. After the war, Chiang Kai-shek returned to Nanjing and established a constitution, but the second Chinese civil war began. In 1949, the People's Republic of China declared its founding with Beijing as its capital, and the Republic of China resisted but continued to be defeated, and in December of the same year, it moved its capital to Taiwan. At this time, the Republic of China in Taiwan was still a permanent member of the United Nations. This situation continued for 22 years until 1971. For 26 years since the establishment of the United Nations, the Republic of China was a permanent member.
So what happened in 1971? The United Nations' Albanian Resolution was proposed. This is a resolution on China's representation submitted jointly by 23 countries, including Albania, which has a close relationship with the People's Republic of China. The resolution called for the People's Republic of China, which effectively controls mainland China, to be recognized as the representative government of China, and for the expulsion of the Republic of China from the United Nations. After some twists and turns, the resolution was changed from expulsion of the Republic of China to expulsion of Chiang Kai-shek's representative.
This resolution was a dispute over which government was the legitimate permanent member of the UN, and passed with 76 votes in favor, 35 against, 17 abstentions, and 3 absent. Japan persuaded Chiang Kai-shek to stay in the UN, and submitted the "Resolution on Important Issues Against Expulsion" and the "Resolution on Dual Representation" jointly with the United States. The "Resolution on Important Issues Against Expulsion" stated that such matters related to UN seats are important matters, and should be decided by a two-thirds majority in accordance with Article 18 of the UN Charter, but this was rejected by a majority, and the "Resolution on Dual Representation" was never voted on after the Albanian resolution passed. This "Dual Representation Resolution" proposed that the People's Republic of China would be the permanent member of the Security Council, and the Republic of China would maintain the remaining seats.
Now, in protest against the passing of the Albanian Resolution, Chiang Kai-shek left the UN chamber, and the Republic of China withdrew from the UN. This was a form of voluntary withdrawal. Strictly speaking, the resolution itself was the expulsion of Representative Chiang Kai-shek from his seat, so it can be said that the path for the Republic of China to remain in the UN was left open. And the "One China Principle" that China is currently talking about was not recognized by this Albanian Resolution, but merely a vote by the representative government on one side or the other.
The UN has stated that no country has ever been expelled from the UN in the past. The conditions for suspension are written in Article 5 of the UN Charter, but it is unlikely that this issue of representation would conflict with this, so it is thought that the Albanian Resolution also changed the original wording of the expulsion of the Republic of China to the expulsion of Representative Chiang Kai-shek. Regarding whether this was the expulsion of the Republic of China or the expulsion of Representative Chiang Kai-shek, there are both in Japanese information, and the original text is published in the American document, which says it was the expulsion of Representative Chiang Kai-shek.
If you think about it this way, you can see that at that time, if Chiang Kai-shek had stepped down as the government representative, the Republic of China could have joined the United Nations as a separate country from the People's Republic of China. Of course, it is not realistic for Chiang Kai-shek to step down as representative. In 1947, the Republic of China was under a military regime that imposed martial law for 38 years from 1949, which was the exact opposite of the democratic model of Taiwan today, and the international community at the time questioned the country's national administration in that sense as well. This 38 years of martial law is said to be the longest in human history.
The Albanian Resolution is the basis for China's current claim that the international community supported the One China principle, but such a resolution has never been made. The US government has officially stated that the issue of representation has been resolved, but the issue of sovereignty over Taiwan has not.
However, since the People's Republic of China was recognized as an official permanent member of the UN, one country after another sought diplomatic relations with China, and in exchange, China sought to break off diplomatic relations with Taiwan. It applied pressure by hinting at the veto power of the permanent members. In this context, Japan established diplomatic relations with China in 1972, and the United States also established diplomatic relations thereafter. In return, it ended up breaking off diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
The important point is that the Albanian resolution decided which government would represent China, but the issue of sovereignty over Taiwan was not resolved here. The US government has also officially announced this. China claims that this resolution confirmed the One China principle.
![香港の活動家周庭氏が]()
Will Miss. Chou Ting's message reach Taiwanese youth? - What is the ripple effect of his declaration of asylum in Canada?
After Miss. Chou Ting announced his intention to seek asylum in Canada, Hong Kong police said they would do everything in their power to arrest him since the December 29 deadline for his return to the country had passed. Mr. Shuba also mentioned the existence of secret police and the danger of being targeted by spies. He went to Canada to study abroad in September 2023.
The Hong Kong protests are said to have been triggered by China's National People's Congress's decision in 2014 to restrict the number of candidates for the post of chief executive of Hong Kong. At this time, a large demonstration occurred and was also called the Umbrella Movement. Since then, demonstrations against the enactment of the Fugitive Offenders Act and the National Security Act have continued to grow in scale and have been reported around the world. Mr. Shutei is considered to be one of the central figures.
The enactment of these laws will be seen as a de facto collapse of one country, two systems, and investment in Hong Kong from various countries will be withdrawn one after another, accelerating China's current isolation. Mr. Shuba was subsequently arrested and detained, but the charges were relatively light and he was sentenced to 10 months in prison, although he was actually released after about 6 months.
It appeared to be an attempt by the Chinese government to suppress the demonstrations and appease the ringleaders. I wonder if it means that they don't want to provoke the students any more, or they don't want to provoke other countries, but what happened after that was Mr. Shuba's study abroad. I was honestly surprised by this as well. I wonder if a person who incited the people and caused a large-scale demonstration in China could study abroad.This seems like a placating measure, but I imagine that Taiwan could be an extension of this.
It is said that students from the Sunflower Movement in Taiwan taught Hong Kong students how to demonstrate. This led to large-scale demonstrations in Hong Kong, and the enthusiasm returned to Taiwan, leading to a dramatic come-from-behind victory in Taiwan's presidential election in 2017 for Tsai Ing-wen, who was said to be at a disadvantage. Taiwan will become the next Hong Kong. The younger generation's sense of crisis about the end of Taiwan's democracy had a major impact on electoral behavior. If the spark was smoldering in Hong Kong, it could once again influence Taiwan's elections. On the other hand, the fact that Mr. Zhou Ting is able to study abroad in Canada freely could be used to appeal to young Taiwanese people.
This is a de facto declaration of asylum at this timing. The timing of the Taiwan presidential election was probably decided to be at the end of this year because it was held on December 3rd, Miss. Chou Ting's birthday, and the deadline for returning to Japan was December 29th. is January 13, 2024. If the Chinese government had been aiming for a placating policy, the message that Mr. Zhouting's life was in danger was the complete opposite, and the news was sure to reach Taiwan as well. The goddess of democracy is alive and well.
