Will the Japan - Taiwan exchange held by Kyoto Tachibana High School have an impact on the presidential election? - Impact on Taiwanese democracy since the Abe administration
2024-01-05
Category:Taiwan
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Lowering the voting age in Taiwan
On October 10, 2022, Kyoto Tachibana High School put on a spectacular performance at the Taiwan Double Ten Festival. Taiwan's presidential election will be held on January 13th of this year. In Taiwan, voting rights will be lowered to 18 years or older in March 2022. This will be an event that anticipates the presidential election. The Taiwanese students who were high school students at the time were probably over 18 years old.
democratic election interference
In that sense, this is former Prime Minister Abe's intervention in Taiwan. This is a strategy to fully appeal to the younger generation by emphasizing the exchange of democratic values. Ever since the Biden administration announced its commitment to maintaining the "One China Policy," I have personally viewed Japan's democratic intervention in Taiwan from this perspective. The Biden administration's policy has been to maintain its long-standing "one China policy" and simply order China to speak with democratically elected representatives in Taiwan. In other words, the issue at this point will be Taiwan's presidential election in 2024.
Taiwanese diplomacy inherited
Unfortunately, this event took place during the Kishida administration after former Prime Minister Abe was assassinated. Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga referred to Taiwan as a "country" during a party leader debate. At the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics, NHK, which is said to be pro-China, announced "Taiwan" instead of Chinese Taipei. Representative Takaichi held a remote meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen during the presidential election. These things have been widely reported in Taiwan. Unfortunately, the Kishida administration has not made any major moves since the ``Orange Devil'' performance, and on the contrary, it appears to have focused solely on currying favor with Xi Jinping.
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Why did President Tsai Ing - wen invite Kyoto Tachibana High School to the Double Ten Festival? - Taiwan's future entrusted to future generations.
Kyoto Tachibana High School where Taiwan was crazy
Japan's national defense and the Taiwan Strait issue are inseparable
Taiwan's democratization is a recent event
Danger of being swallowed up by China in the next election
Japan should convey the value of democracy
Regarding why Kyoto Tachibana High School's brass band (Orange Devil) was invited to Taiwan's National Foundation Day ceremony, President Tsai Ing-wen looked ahead to the presidential election in 2024 and asked the next generation who will have the right to vote at that time. It appears that Kyoto Tachibana High School was entrusted with a strong message. In the last presidential election in Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen came from behind to win despite being at an overwhelming disadvantage. The Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party itself analyzes that the reason for this is that young people are heading to the polls. It is said that the younger generation in Taiwan is starting to develop a sense of democratic values.
Japan should think more seriously about its national defense. There is no objection to considering the Taiwan Strait as an issue that is inseparable from Japan's national defense. What is needed to achieve this is strengthening Japan-US relations and discussing constitutional revision. But is that enough?
Taiwan's democratization began with the direct election of the president in 1996. It was written by former President Lee Teng-hui, who passed away recently. Has Taiwan followed the path of democratization smoothly since then? The first summit meeting between China and Taiwan was held under former President Ma Ying-jeou before President Tsai Ing-wen. There, former President Ma Ying-jeou and Xi Jinping held a meeting, reaffirming the 92 joint formula and returning to the one-China principle. That was in 2015.
Although Taiwan is a young democratic country, it is on the verge of strong growth. If the Democratic Progressive Party loses in the 2024 presidential election, Taiwan, one of the few democratic countries in Asia, may never smile again. Xi Jinping will try to intervene in Taiwan's presidential election in every possible way.
Kyoto Tachibana High School showed that there are many things Japan can do. Our goal is to show young Taiwanese through a variety of content that on the path to democracy there is a world where free people can realize their dreams. Taiwan considers Japan to be its democratic predecessor. The Japanese media, which should be primarily responsible for this, seems to be controlled by China.
China continues to intimidate
And the presidential election is just over a week away. China has been carrying out various intimidation and threats in the run-up to the Taiwan presidential election. The threat is that if China invades Taiwan, you young people will be the ones fighting on the battlefield. This is the Chinese Communist Party's reasoning. The Taiwan Strait is a sea lane through which oil tankers from the Middle East, which is Japan's lifeline, pass. If the Kuomintang wins, China will gain control of the Taiwan Strait. What has the Kishida administration done about this?
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Xi Jinping sends a congratulatory message to Taiwan Nationalist Party Chairman Zhu Li-Lun - The purpose of shaking Taiwanese public opinion is the 2024 Taiwan presidential election.
Xi Jinping sent a telegram of congratulations to Mr. Zhu Li-Lun, who took office as the head of the Taiwan Nationalist Party on September 26th, and expressed that both parties share a common political commitment to oppose Taiwan's independence, aiming for peace in the Taiwan Strait, national reunification, and national rejuvenation. He expressed his hope for cooperation on this basis. Mr. Zhu Lilun said that in recent years, under the Democratic Progressive Party government, ``anti-China'' policies were adopted, which led to the deterioration of the situation on both sides of the strait. He responded that he opposed Taiwanese independence and wanted to deepen cooperation while respecting each other's differences. In other words, both sides confirmed that the current Taiwan Strait issue was caused by the Democratic Progressive Party, which denies the ``92 common sense'' and ``one country, two systems.''
Xi Jinping and the Nationalist Party have concluded that the Taiwan Strait issue is an issue caused by President Tsai Ing-wen and the independence faction of the Democratic Progressive Party.
Although the Biden administration's Taiwan Strait policy appears to be a continuation of the Trump administration, it is actually different. Biden, don't cause trouble while he's president. It looks like that's all he's saying. Indo-Pacific Coordinator Campbell's statement that he does not support Taiwan's independence is not the government's official position, but does this mean that even if Taiwan were to declare independence, it would not recognize it? The idea is to maintain three joint communiques.
The three joint communiqués are a compilation of the 1972 dialogue between President Nixon and Prime Minister Chou Enlai.
Let's assume that relations between China and Taiwan proceed peacefully until the next Taiwan presidential election in 2024, as Xi Jinping said. If the Democratic Progressive Party advocates Taiwan independence during the presidential election, the Kuomintang is sure to stir up public opinion by repeatedly attacking them and asking why they are making claims that would lead to war when peace has finally come. Chinese hackers will attack the PCs of Democratic Progressive Party members to sniff out scandals, and they will interfere in elections in every possible way.
Elections are only a process, not a goal. Unless a declaration of independence is drafted, this problem will arise every time Taiwan has a presidential election. The Biden administration in the United States will run until January 2025. What would it mean for Xi Jinping if Trump were to return to office? Xi Jinping has his sights firmly set on Taiwan's 2024 presidential election.
While the Taiwan Strait issue will end with Taiwan's declaration of independence, it is highly likely that it will lead to war.
Democracy in Taiwan
At the first-ever Sino-Taiwan summit in November 2015, President Ma Ying-jeou and Xi Jinping confirmed that mainland China and Taiwan belong to China and maintain the "one China" principle and the "ninety-two common knowledge."The birth of President Tsai Ying was in May 2016, so it happened only half a year ago.
President Lee Teng-hui's "two countries" (China and Taiwan are different countries) were easily overturned here, returning to the position of one country, two systems, and one China.With the birth of President Tsai Ying-cheng and the current trend of leaving China, Taiwan's independence theory is still in its infancy.The dramatic reversal of Tsai's re-election in 2020 is that the Kuomintang candidate had a higher approval rating until just before.
Taiwan's first direct presidential election was in 1996.It's been about 25 years.
Biden said, "China should have a good conversation with Taiwan's democratically elected leader.I said.What does this mean?In Taiwan's presidential election in 2024, the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang received 28.3 percent and 21.9 percent respectively.Historically, Taiwan has been leaning toward China or moving toward independence, but this pendulum-like problem will continue as long as it holds elections as a democratic country.Only the annexation of China or the declaration of independence can end the problem.The Biden administration is in favor of "one China policy."
China's "one China principle " and the United States' "one China policy " are different.China regards Taiwan as part of China's "one China principle," the U.S. "one China policy" means recognizing China's representative government as the People's Republic of China, not Taiwan as part of China.It is only acknowledged that China is making such a claim.At first glance, East Asia's policies seem to follow Trump's, but they are fundamentally different.It also implicitly conveys that if the pro-China faction wins again in Taiwan, the U.S. will not interfere.
If Taiwan does not specify independence, it will be asked whether it will reach China or independence every election, and that will be an opportunity for China to take advantage of it.
Yoichi Hatta has achieved great achievements in Taiwan. Taiwan still grateful. Yoichi Hatta developed Taiwan as the Governor-General of Taiwan. The most famous is the paddy field development in the Kanan Plain. The vast plains were often drought due to inadequate irrigation facilities. He did Tam construction and waterway development there. The total distance of the waterways he created exceeds the total distance of the Great Wall of China.
When the Great Kanto Earthquake struck Japan and financial cuts from Japan became unavoidable, Hatta was worried about him and announced the dismissal of personnel. They were Taiwanese who thought they would be fired, but the people who were fired were Japanese. When a Taiwanese worker asked Hatta why, Hatta replied, "I'm making farmland for Taiwanese. It doesn't make sense unless it's made by Taiwanese." Agricultural land development has been successful, and it seems that delicious rice can still be obtained.
In response to the request to build a statue in praise of Hatta's contribution, Hatta refused, but he was requested again and said, "I don't like the statue standing in a big way." Therefore, the statue of Hatta was sitting, and it became the statue that Taiwanese at that time often saw and thought of.
President Lee Teng-hui visited Kanazawa, the hometown of Hatta.
President Chen Shui-bian issued a reward to Hatta.
President Ma Ying-jeou participated in Hatta's memorial service at Wushantou Dam.
Hatta's wife, Sodaiki, was also awarded, and a statue was erected in Hatta Yoichi Memorial Park.
The Chinese Communist Party's economic takeover - dependence on the Chinese economy is the same as being taken over - young people with no vested interests are the key.
Xi Jinping's strategy
Will peaceful dialogue be possible
Reach for any target
Taiwan was one step away from unification
At the 110th Anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution, President Xi Jinping cited the "One China" principle and the "1992 Consensus" based on it, and stated that the two countries would "promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations." This is a worrisome statement, considering that he will never do the right thing in terms of Taiwan policy. On October 4, a record 56 Chinese aircraft entered Taiwan's airspace. Since the beginning of October, there have been a total of 149 airspace intrusions, but by the 5th, this had dropped sharply to just one aircraft.
Biden has called for peaceful dialogue with democratically elected leaders, but the issue remains focused on Taiwan's next presidential election. If Taiwan's next president becomes pro-China and moves toward unification with China, the United States will not interfere as long as the conclusion is reached through peaceful dialogue. It also means.
Direct bribery of politicians seems like something out of a TV drama, but China's strategy is much more elaborate. Communist Party members are reaching out to politicians' families, relatives, friends, politicians' support bases, and organizations.
If politicians' supporters were given huge amounts of wealth through business with China, they would easily turn over, and they would sniff out cheating, traffic accidents, tax evasion, minor legal violations, etc. of the politicians themselves and those around them. Collect information. To do this, they will use all sorts of methods, including hacking and wiretapping communication devices, and installing mechanisms to send information to the Chinese Communist Party into the communication devices themselves.
Before President Tsai Ing-wen, the era of President Ma Ying-jeou was one step closer to unification. Young people's votes played a key role in President Tsai Ing-wen's re-election. The key to the next election will be how to encourage young people, who have fewer business interests and other interests, to vote.
Taiwan Strait seen from the withdrawal of Kyiv - Will Taiwan be able to defend itself? Submarine lurking in the Taiwan Strait. Russia withdraws from Kyiv without taking air superiority
Russia is expected to abandon the capture of Kieu and head for Mariupol and later Odessa. The reason why Kyiv's capture failed is probably that he could not take air superiority. The Army marched on and continued to be bombarded even though it could not take air superiority. It will be China who is watching this battle carefully. Most Chinese weapons are modifications of the former Soviet Union and were obtained from Ukraine. You may be appalled about how well it works with the state-of-the-art weapons of the Western world.
It's even harder to cross the Taiwan Strait
Ukraine is a land-based invasion of neighboring countries, and it is difficult to capture Taiwan because of the Taiwan Strait. Can China take control of Taiwan? Even if they take air superiority, the Chinese army must cross the Taiwan Strait using an amphibious ship to land. The problem is the command of the sea. President Tsai Ing-wen began building his first submarine in Kaohsiung in November 2020. A total of eight ships are planned to be built, and the test voyage is scheduled for 2025. If the submarine is in the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese landing ship will be sunk by an invisible enemy. China has vehemently opposed this plan.
Will Taiwan be able to defend itself?
Before that, if we see the withdrawal of Kyiv, it is more likely that China will not be able to take air superiority. The key is likely to be an unmanned attack aircraft. Although China has an unmanned attack aircraft, its performance is inferior to that made in Russia. With the reinforcement of a large number of unmanned attack aircraft and surface-to-air missiles from the United States, and the purchase of submarines from the United States, it seems that considerable defense is possible just by providing weapons without the participation of the United States. Of note is the performance of the submarines manufactured by Taiwan. Chinese submarines are noisy and are often detected and surfaced from Japan. If you can find it and you can't find it, you can sink your opponent's submarine.Chinese troops cannot land in Taiwan without taking command of the sea.