Mr. Xi Jinping believes that Taiwan's independence is the trigger for his invasion of Taiwan - The timing of Taiwan's independence and the influence of elections in each country.

Photo by Encyclopedist (licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0)

The timing of the invasion of Taiwan is Taiwanese independence

The term of office of the Chinese president is five years. In ２０１８, China's National People's Congress lifted the １０-year limit for two terms, making it possible for candidates to be re-elected as many times as they like. Xi Jinping is currently in his second term, and his term ends in ２０２３. Regarding the timing, if any, of China's invasion of Taiwan, in January ２０２１, the Chinese Minister of Defense made in-depth statements that Taiwan's independence would mean war. At the recent U.S.-China summit, Xi Jinping said, ``If Taiwan's independence forces cross the line, we will take decisive measures.''

In other words, the timing is Taiwan's independence. So, regardless of what kind of action or state one considers independence, Taiwan satisfies all the substantive requirements for becoming a state under international law. All that remains is to draft a declaration of independence and declare it to the international community as an independent country. The question is at what timing it will be done.

The key point is the ２０２４ Taiwan presidential election

Regarding this, President Tsai Ing-wen has stated that Taiwan is "already independent," indicating that she has no intention of drafting a declaration of independence. Taiwan's ２０２４ presidential election will be held the year after Xi Jinping begins his third term. The Democratic Progressive Party candidates advocate Taiwan's independence, which means that Taiwan is not yet independent, which is a very different nuance from President Tsai Ing-wen's ``already independent'' statement.

If the Democratic Progressive Party candidate becomes Taiwan's president in ２０２４, there is a high possibility that he will draft a declaration of independence during his term. Xi Jinping, aiming for a third term, will support the Kuomintang, the opposition force to Taiwan's ruling party, and seek to become Taiwan's president. Obsessed with elections. The Nationalist Party is a pro-China party. ２０２４ is also the year of the US presidential election. Based on President Tsai Ing-wen's idea that the country is "already independent," it is unlikely that a declaration of independence will be drafted under the Tsai Ing-wen administration or the Biden administration.

Xi Jinping's re-election also has a big impact

Since the term of office of Taiwan's president is four years, the term of office of the next president will expire in ２０２８, which will be Xi Jinping's fourth term. Xi Jinping will need to see results by at least ２０２７ to be re-elected to a fourth term. This timing is the ６th year that Commander Davidson said that war would occur within ６ years. If the US Republican Party wins in ２０２４, the situation will change dramatically.