The right of collective self-defense assumes a Taiwanese emergency - Former Prime Minister Aso mentioned the possibility that an invasion of Taiwan would extend to the waters near the Senkaku Islands.
2021-07-08
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Taiwan emergency is Japan emergency
On July ５, former Prime Minister Aso gave a speech in Tokyo, stating that if China were to invade Taiwan, it would be recognized as an ``existence-endangering situation'' under national security-related laws, and the right of collective self-defense could be exercised to a limited extent. He acknowledged that it was possible. Currently, Japan does not recognize Taiwan as a state, so Taiwan itself is outside the scope of the right of collective self-defense, but both China and Taiwan claim territorial rights to the Senkaku Islands, and China has made an armed invasion of Taiwan. It can be interpreted to include the Senkaku Islands if a naval blockade of Taiwan is implemented.
American participation in the war is a condition
Will the premise be that the right of collective self-defense will be exercised under the condition that the United States enters the war, or will the Japan-U.S. alliance be activated while Japan exercises its right of self-defense in the event of a naval blockade? Is it? The United States uses the name Taiwan as a military name. The Biden administration has announced that there will be no change in its interpretation of the One China Policy. On the other hand, Japan has confirmed that the defense of the Senkaku Islands falls within the scope of the Japan-US Security Treaty. Regarding the defense of Taiwan, although the U.S.-Taiwan Relations Act mentions the provision of weapons, it does not specify whether the U.S. military will be involved in the defense of Taiwan, leaving some ambiguity.
MEMO If China were to invade Taiwan, there is a possibility that Japan would join the war, assuming that the U.S. military would join the war.
Military exercises are essential for practical defense
Considering the meaning of Deputy Prime Minister Aso's remarks, it is unlikely that they will be put into action unless they include military exercises between Japan, the United States, and Taiwan. Without military exercises, there is no way that the right of collective self-defense would be accompanied by the power to implement it. This will be a major focus in the future. We may see the Self-Defense Forces entering Taiwan for military exercises.
The US military has announced that it is conducting joint military exercises with Taiwan. It is not possible to create an action plan without conducting military exercises on-site to determine what kind of operations could be carried out in the terrain and environment of Taiwan's west coast in the event of an actual battle. There needs to be a concrete discussion about what is necessary for Japan to exercise its right of collective self-defense.
POINT In order to exercise the right of collective self-defense, the Self-Defense Forces will need military training that simulates the Taiwan Strait in order to function effectively.
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China's territorial waters violations started in 2012, and what is the cause? - The Senkaku Islands issue became apparent after nationalization. Where did the Senkaku Islands issue begin and where did it emerge? 1971 and 2012.In June 1971, Taiwan's Foreign Ministry claimed sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands.In response, the People's Republic of China claimed sovereignty in September 1971.The assumption began in 1969 when the U.N. ECAFE announced the possibility of oil reserves.At that time, Chiang Kai-shek claimed ownership of mainland China, and China claimed ownership of Taiwan, so it took only three months to declare ownership.
It is said that in 1972 Japan-China normalization of diplomatic relations, there was communication between the two sides that the Senkaku Islands issue would not be a problem if we did not make it a problem.It means the shelved agreement. The graph shows the number of Chinese ships invading territorial waters.It is clear that there will be no trouble for 40 years until September 2012.
In 2010, a Chinese fishing boat collided with a Japanese Coast Guard ship and arrested the captain of a Chinese ship.The captain of the Chinese ship claimed that the Japanese had been hitting his ship, and it turned into a confrontation between Japan and China.The Kan administration of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) released the captain for no reason and it has been criticized by public opinion. Meanwhile, four Japanese have been arrested and detained on suspicion of espionage in China.Tanigaki, then president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), who was the opposition party in questioning the Diet at the time, was needless arresting is incorrect. He pointed out that deportation was sufficient on the spot.
Due to opposition from China and criticism from Japan, the next Noda administration nationalized the Senkaku Islands in September 2012.As a result, the problem spreads and large-scale anti-Japanese riots erupt in China.Then Chinese ships began to invade their territorial waters.In other words, the two countries have claimed sovereignty from the beginning, and if Japan declares nationalization, it will mean abolishing the theory of shelving, and China will claim sovereignty head-on.
As a result, it can be said that the nationalization of the Senkaku Islands was correct in the current Xi Jinping administration.The declaration of nationalization will also lead to Japan-U.S. security.Tanigaki would have been more correct in dealing with a simple case of fishing boat clashes. In any case, the problem originated in Taiwan, but Senkaku Islands connected Japan and Taiwan, making it an important island for Japan-U.S. Taiwan cooperation.
Chinese Spring Festival delega Xi Jinping did not hide his ambition even though he had no track record, and his OBOR, which he pushed for, ended in failure and is now trying to be contained by other countries.Why is it that the Constitution has been revised to become president for life and there are no signs of his downfall?Xi Jinping criticized Hu Jintao, who tried to settle the Senkaku Islands peacefully with Japan, and led the anti-Japanese riot.As the riots overheated and the people were about to attack the regime, Hu Jintao hurriedly suppressed them.This is similar to Mao's strategy of going to Chiang Kai-shek.
Zhou Yongkang, China's former political enemy, was excluded in the name of eradicating corruption.Dongguan, known as the capital of China's sex, colluded with the police and led by Zhou Yongkang.In China, this is a natural collusion, but for this reason it was dragged down and excluded.In this way, Hu Jintao's faction was buried one after another.Even now, Xi's loud cry is to eradicate corruption.It's good to hear what Xi says, but that's what Xi Jinping is doing.The current head of the public security department is known to be responsible for almost all corruption and corruption.
In China, children with high athletic ability will be transferred to places where they will receive gifted education as athletes of the future national sports team.The same is true of the Communist Party.It is an honor to be selected as a class committee member at a Chinese school.It is the first major gateway to becoming a member of the Communist Party of the future.
The only thing the Chinese put before the state is their clan.If a good child is born, the clan will support him, and if the child becomes a member of the Communist Party, the clan will be rewarded.If you lose your position in the pursuit of corruption, there will be many sects behind you.Xi Jinping, who is advocating eradication of corruption, is slowly closing his eyes and using it to control people's minds.
It is said that the only scenario for Xi's downfall is assassination.Xi Jinping seems to be very wary of this.This is a group photo of the Spring Festival party held on February 20, 2021.Everyone is applauding the camera all at once, but several people are facing the other way around.This is the Great Hall of the People where I'm sure you only have your firiends isn't it?
Mr. Xi Jinping believes that Taiwan's independence is the trigger for his invasion of Taiwan - The timing of Taiwan's independence and the influence of elections in each country.
The term of office of the Chinese president is five years. In 2018, China's National People's Congress lifted the 10-year limit for two terms, making it possible for candidates to be re-elected as many times as they like. Xi Jinping is currently in his second term, and his term ends in 2023. Regarding the timing, if any, of China's invasion of Taiwan, in January 2021, the Chinese Minister of Defense made in-depth statements that Taiwan's independence would mean war. At the recent U.S.-China summit, Xi Jinping said, ``If Taiwan's independence forces cross the line, we will take decisive measures.''
In other words, the timing is Taiwan's independence. So, regardless of what kind of action or state one considers independence, Taiwan satisfies all the substantive requirements for becoming a state under international law. All that remains is to draft a declaration of independence and declare it to the international community as an independent country. The question is at what timing it will be done.
Regarding this, President Tsai Ing-wen has stated that Taiwan is "already independent," indicating that she has no intention of drafting a declaration of independence. Taiwan's 2024 presidential election will be held the year after Xi Jinping begins his third term. The Democratic Progressive Party candidates advocate Taiwan's independence, which means that Taiwan is not yet independent, which is a very different nuance from President Tsai Ing-wen's ``already independent'' statement.
If the Democratic Progressive Party candidate becomes Taiwan's president in 2024, there is a high possibility that he will draft a declaration of independence during his term. Xi Jinping, aiming for a third term, will support the Kuomintang, the opposition force to Taiwan's ruling party, and seek to become Taiwan's president. Obsessed with elections. The Nationalist Party is a pro-China party. 2024 is also the year of the US presidential election. Based on President Tsai Ing-wen's idea that the country is "already independent," it is unlikely that a declaration of independence will be drafted under the Tsai Ing-wen administration or the Biden administration.
Taiwan's presidential election and the US presidential election will begin in 2024, and Xi Jinping's third term will begin in 2023. It will be interesting to see if there is any movement after this time.
Since the term of office of Taiwan's president is four years, the term of office of the next president will expire in 2028, which will be Xi Jinping's fourth term. Xi Jinping will need to see results by at least 2027 to be re-elected to a fourth term. This timing is the 6th year that Commander Davidson said that war would occur within 6 years. If the US Republican Party wins in 2024, the situation will change dramatically.
The timing of Taiwan's declaration of independence may have a great deal to do with the elections in the three countries.
Democracy in Taiwan
At the first-ever Sino-Taiwan summit in November 2015, President Ma Ying-jeou and Xi Jinping confirmed that mainland China and Taiwan belong to China and maintain the "one China" principle and the "ninety-two common knowledge."The birth of President Tsai Ying was in May 2016, so it happened only half a year ago.
President Lee Teng-hui's "two countries" (China and Taiwan are different countries) were easily overturned here, returning to the position of one country, two systems, and one China.With the birth of President Tsai Ying-cheng and the current trend of leaving China, Taiwan's independence theory is still in its infancy.The dramatic reversal of Tsai's re-election in 2020 is that the Kuomintang candidate had a higher approval rating until just before.
Taiwan's first direct presidential election was in 1996.It's been about 25 years.
Biden said, "China should have a good conversation with Taiwan's democratically elected leader.I said.What does this mean?In Taiwan's presidential election in 2024, the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang received 28.3 percent and 21.9 percent respectively.Historically, Taiwan has been leaning toward China or moving toward independence, but this pendulum-like problem will continue as long as it holds elections as a democratic country.Only the annexation of China or the declaration of independence can end the problem.The Biden administration is in favor of "one China policy."
China's "one China principle " and the United States' "one China policy " are different.China regards Taiwan as part of China's "one China principle," the U.S. "one China policy" means recognizing China's representative government as the People's Republic of China, not Taiwan as part of China.It is only acknowledged that China is making such a claim.At first glance, East Asia's policies seem to follow Trump's, but they are fundamentally different.It also implicitly conveys that if the pro-China faction wins again in Taiwan, the U.S. will not interfere.
If Taiwan does not specify independence, it will be asked whether it will reach China or independence every election, and that will be an opportunity for China to take advantage of it.
From the perspective of Ukraine war, Taiwan is same case emergency.What position should we take on Taiwan?
What would happen if we looked at the Taiwan issue in response to NATO's unilateral move to the military demarcation line by joining Ukraine?The Japanese media have put Russia and China on the same page, and what if China invades Taiwan like Russia?Is this really the only way to build a theory?Why don't Japan and the U.S. want Taiwan to belong to China?This is because China want to shifted dramatically the military demarcation line.
In Japan, lawmakers argue that if Taiwan is taken, it will be the Senkaku Islands.In the Albanian resolution, the United Nations decided to make the People's Republic of China the representative government of China.The U.S. and Japan agree that the issue of representation itself does not mean that Taiwan will lose its independence, but neither Japan nor the U.S. has no agreement on document, and has no diplomatic relations with Taiwan and has not approved it.This is the basis for China's claim that Taiwan is China.Currently, only 15 countries have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.Among them, only 13 countries expressed their support for Taiwan's participation at the U.N. General Assembly in September 2021, without Japan and the United States.
In this case, the policy that Taiwan would be separated from China, recognized independently, established diplomatic relations, and signed a treaty with allies are similar to Russia's plan to protect Lugansk and Donetsk.On the contrary, China, like Ukraine, will criticize the U.S. and Japan and send defense forces.In other words, we are sitting on the Russian side of the Taiwan issue.
Originally, Ukraine was considered a Taiwan issue, but it was a military demarcation line issue before the issue of national sovereignty.Past history has shown that unilateral changes in the military demarcation line could lead to war.What China wants to do is take over Taiwan and change the military demarcation line significantly.If NATO is in this situation, how can it defend Taiwan militarily?
It goes without saying that Japan must cooperate with the U.S. to face China in order to defend Taiwan.We need to make it clear that we will not allow changes to the military demarcation line.
