From the perspective of Ukraine war, Taiwan is same case emergency.What position should we take on Taiwan?
2022-03-07
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What is a military demarcation line change?
What would happen if we looked at the Taiwan issue in response to NATO's unilateral move to the military demarcation line by joining Ukraine?The Japanese media have put Russia and China on the same page, and what if China invades Taiwan like Russia?Is this really the only way to build a theory?Why don't Japan and the U.S. want Taiwan to belong to China?This is because China want to shifted dramatically the military demarcation line.
Taiwan's emergency is Japan's emergency
In Japan, lawmakers argue that if Taiwan is taken, it will be the Senkaku Islands.In the Albanian resolution, the United Nations decided to make the People's Republic of China the representative government of China.The U.S. and Japan agree that the issue of representation itself does not mean that Taiwan will lose its independence, but neither Japan nor the U.S. has no agreement on document, and has no diplomatic relations with Taiwan and has not approved it.This is the basis for China's claim that Taiwan is China.Currently, only １５ countries have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.Among them, only １３ countries expressed their support for Taiwan's participation at the U.N. General Assembly in September ２０２１, without Japan and the United States.
Meaning of Taiwan's national recognition
In this case, the policy that Taiwan would be separated from China, recognized independently, established diplomatic relations, and signed a treaty with allies are similar to Russia's plan to protect Lugansk and Donetsk.On the contrary, China, like Ukraine, will criticize the U.S. and Japan and send defense forces.In other words, we are sitting on the Russian side of the Taiwan issue.
Change of the military demarcation line that threatens peace
Originally, Ukraine was considered a Taiwan issue, but it was a military demarcation line issue before the issue of national sovereignty.Past history has shown that unilateral changes in the military demarcation line could lead to war.What China wants to do is take over Taiwan and change the military demarcation line significantly.If NATO is in this situation, how can it defend Taiwan militarily?
POINT It goes without saying that Japan must cooperate with the U.S. to face China in order to defend Taiwan.We need to make it clear that we will not allow changes to the military demarcation line.
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Mr. Xi Jinping believes that Taiwan's independence is the trigger for his invasion of Taiwan - The timing of Taiwan's independence and the influence of elections in each country.
The term of office of the Chinese president is five years. In 2018, China's National People's Congress lifted the 10-year limit for two terms, making it possible for candidates to be re-elected as many times as they like. Xi Jinping is currently in his second term, and his term ends in 2023. Regarding the timing, if any, of China's invasion of Taiwan, in January 2021, the Chinese Minister of Defense made in-depth statements that Taiwan's independence would mean war. At the recent U.S.-China summit, Xi Jinping said, ``If Taiwan's independence forces cross the line, we will take decisive measures.''
In other words, the timing is Taiwan's independence. So, regardless of what kind of action or state one considers independence, Taiwan satisfies all the substantive requirements for becoming a state under international law. All that remains is to draft a declaration of independence and declare it to the international community as an independent country. The question is at what timing it will be done.
Regarding this, President Tsai Ing-wen has stated that Taiwan is "already independent," indicating that she has no intention of drafting a declaration of independence. Taiwan's 2024 presidential election will be held the year after Xi Jinping begins his third term. The Democratic Progressive Party candidates advocate Taiwan's independence, which means that Taiwan is not yet independent, which is a very different nuance from President Tsai Ing-wen's ``already independent'' statement.
If the Democratic Progressive Party candidate becomes Taiwan's president in 2024, there is a high possibility that he will draft a declaration of independence during his term. Xi Jinping, aiming for a third term, will support the Kuomintang, the opposition force to Taiwan's ruling party, and seek to become Taiwan's president. Obsessed with elections. The Nationalist Party is a pro-China party. 2024 is also the year of the US presidential election. Based on President Tsai Ing-wen's idea that the country is "already independent," it is unlikely that a declaration of independence will be drafted under the Tsai Ing-wen administration or the Biden administration.
Taiwan's presidential election and the US presidential election will begin in 2024, and Xi Jinping's third term will begin in 2023. It will be interesting to see if there is any movement after this time.
Since the term of office of Taiwan's president is four years, the term of office of the next president will expire in 2028, which will be Xi Jinping's fourth term. Xi Jinping will need to see results by at least 2027 to be re-elected to a fourth term. This timing is the 6th year that Commander Davidson said that war would occur within 6 years. If the US Republican Party wins in 2024, the situation will change dramatically.
The timing of Taiwan's declaration of independence may have a great deal to do with the elections in the three countries.
Taiwan Strait seen from the withdrawal of Kyiv - Will Taiwan be able to defend itself? Submarine lurking in the Taiwan Strait. Russia withdraws from Kyiv without taking air superiority
Russia is expected to abandon the capture of Kieu and head for Mariupol and later Odessa. The reason why Kyiv's capture failed is probably that he could not take air superiority. The Army marched on and continued to be bombarded even though it could not take air superiority. It will be China who is watching this battle carefully. Most Chinese weapons are modifications of the former Soviet Union and were obtained from Ukraine. You may be appalled about how well it works with the state-of-the-art weapons of the Western world.
It's even harder to cross the Taiwan Strait
Ukraine is a land-based invasion of neighboring countries, and it is difficult to capture Taiwan because of the Taiwan Strait. Can China take control of Taiwan? Even if they take air superiority, the Chinese army must cross the Taiwan Strait using an amphibious ship to land. The problem is the command of the sea. President Tsai Ing-wen began building his first submarine in Kaohsiung in November 2020. A total of eight ships are planned to be built, and the test voyage is scheduled for 2025. If the submarine is in the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese landing ship will be sunk by an invisible enemy. China has vehemently opposed this plan.
Will Taiwan be able to defend itself?
Before that, if we see the withdrawal of Kyiv, it is more likely that China will not be able to take air superiority. The key is likely to be an unmanned attack aircraft. Although China has an unmanned attack aircraft, its performance is inferior to that made in Russia. With the reinforcement of a large number of unmanned attack aircraft and surface-to-air missiles from the United States, and the purchase of submarines from the United States, it seems that considerable defense is possible just by providing weapons without the participation of the United States. Of note is the performance of the submarines manufactured by Taiwan. Chinese submarines are noisy and are often detected and surfaced from Japan. If you can find it and you can't find it, you can sink your opponent's submarine.Chinese troops cannot land in Taiwan without taking command of the sea.
Is the orange devil that is so popular in Taiwan a brilliant strategy of President Tsai Ing - wen? Japan should also learn from Taiwan.
Orange devil is very popular in Taiwan
Free youth is a symbol of democracy
Shocking dignified high school student
Are you considering lowering the voting age?
It seems that the Kyoto Tachibana High School boom in Taiwan has not subsided yet. Japanese high school students, known as the ``orange devils,'' were invited to Taiwan's Double Ten Festival and gave a spectacular performance to appeal for friendship between Japan and Taiwan.
The Double Ten Festival is a ceremony that celebrates Taiwan's National Foundation Day, and it is unusual for a high school student from a foreign country to appear as the main event. What's more, there was even a surprise appearance by President Tsai Ing-wen during the tour of the Presidential Palace. In Taiwan, Japan is a senior country in liberal democracy, and as we were once the same country for 50 years, there is a lot of interest in Japan.
It appears that this ``orange devil'' was invited to the ceremony as a symbol of liberal democracy. In other words, this is an excellent performance by the Tsai Ing-wen administration. In the 2024 presidential election, Taiwanese people will choose a national ideology. It is not an election about which side will be economically richer, but a choice between liberal democracy and Chinese-style socialism.
What the young people of Taiwan saw was a marching band, which is just a part of a high school club activity, displaying overwhelming musical ability, and proudly performing at a ceremony attended by the president of another country. Taiwanese people seemed surprised by this. The question is whether it will be a liberal democracy where talent flourishes freely or a socialism that is embraced by Xi Jinping's plump belly.
The lowering of the voting age in Taiwan to 18 years old in March 2022 also has a lot to do with this. Taiwanese high school students of the same generation as the Orange Devil will head to the polls in 2024. The fact that it has become so popular means President Tsai Ing-wen's production was a great success. President Tsai Ing-wen is much smarter than Xi Jinping. By the way, if you paste a video related to the "Orange Devil" in Taiwan on Facebook, it will be deleted as a violation of the community rules. I don't know much about the relationship between the Chinese Communist Party and Facebook, but it seems certain that it's not a good fit.
Will Miss. Chou Ting's message reach Taiwanese youth? - What is the ripple effect of his declaration of asylum in Canada?
After Miss. Chou Ting announced his intention to seek asylum in Canada, Hong Kong police said they would do everything in their power to arrest him since the December 29 deadline for his return to the country had passed. Mr. Shuba also mentioned the existence of secret police and the danger of being targeted by spies. He went to Canada to study abroad in September 2023.
The Hong Kong protests are said to have been triggered by China's National People's Congress's decision in 2014 to restrict the number of candidates for the post of chief executive of Hong Kong. At this time, a large demonstration occurred and was also called the Umbrella Movement. Since then, demonstrations against the enactment of the Fugitive Offenders Act and the National Security Act have continued to grow in scale and have been reported around the world. Mr. Shutei is considered to be one of the central figures.
The enactment of these laws will be seen as a de facto collapse of one country, two systems, and investment in Hong Kong from various countries will be withdrawn one after another, accelerating China's current isolation. Mr. Shuba was subsequently arrested and detained, but the charges were relatively light and he was sentenced to 10 months in prison, although he was actually released after about 6 months.
It appeared to be an attempt by the Chinese government to suppress the demonstrations and appease the ringleaders. I wonder if it means that they don't want to provoke the students any more, or they don't want to provoke other countries, but what happened after that was Mr. Shuba's study abroad. I was honestly surprised by this as well. I wonder if a person who incited the people and caused a large-scale demonstration in China could study abroad.This seems like a placating measure, but I imagine that Taiwan could be an extension of this.
It is said that students from the Sunflower Movement in Taiwan taught Hong Kong students how to demonstrate. This led to large-scale demonstrations in Hong Kong, and the enthusiasm returned to Taiwan, leading to a dramatic come-from-behind victory in Taiwan's presidential election in 2017 for Tsai Ing-wen, who was said to be at a disadvantage. Taiwan will become the next Hong Kong. The younger generation's sense of crisis about the end of Taiwan's democracy had a major impact on electoral behavior. If the spark was smoldering in Hong Kong, it could once again influence Taiwan's elections. On the other hand, the fact that Mr. Zhou Ting is able to study abroad in Canada freely could be used to appeal to young Taiwanese people.
This is a de facto declaration of asylum at this timing. The timing of the Taiwan presidential election was probably decided to be at the end of this year because it was held on December 3rd, Miss. Chou Ting's birthday, and the deadline for returning to Japan was December 29th. is January 13, 2024. If the Chinese government had been aiming for a placating policy, the message that Mr. Zhouting's life was in danger was the complete opposite, and the news was sure to reach Taiwan as well. The goddess of democracy is alive and well.
Although the United States don't save Ukraine, will the United States save Taiwan?Taiwan's more complicated problem than Ukraine's
There was a question mark on how the Ukraine issue would affect the Taiwan issue and whether the U.S. would send U.S. troops to defend Taiwan if China advanced to Taiwan.Where does Ukraine belong? Ukraine is an independent country independent of the former Soviet Union in 1991.Is Taiwan independent or where does it belong?Taiwan was incorporated into Japan after the Sino-Japanese War and came under Japanese rule.It existed as Japan for 50 years until the end of World War II.Under the San Francisco Peace Treaty, Taiwan will be returned.It is unclear where it was returned.It only says that Japan renounces Taiwan.After the civil war, the Communist Party of China ruled the mainland and the government of the Republic of China fled to Taiwan.In 1949, the Communist Party of China established the People's Republic of China.This was established as a different government from the Republic of China.Since the San Francisco Peace Conference was held in 1951, the international community has not determined which government is more legitimate at this time, so the two governments have not participated in the peace conference.
The United Nations has been established as a coalition of victorious countries in World War II.China's representation was held by the Republic of China as a permanent member, but the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China will compete for representation.China's representative government was recognized as the People's Republic of China by the U.N. resolution in 1971, and the Republic of China will withdraw from the U.N.Japan and the United States had diplomatic relations with the Republic of China, but Japan established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China in 1972 and broke off diplomatic relations with the Republic of China.Since President Nixon's surprise visit to China in 1971, the United States established diplomatic relations with China in 1979 and severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
China now claims that Taiwan belongs to China because Japan had renounced Taiwan.However, there are many objections whether the U.N. resolution on Albania is interpreted as a matter of representation and determination to belong to Taiwan.If Taiwan was returned to the Republic of China, the Republic of China is Taiwan.Therefore, Taiwan insists that Taiwan is the successor to the Republic of China, while China insists that the People's Republic of China is the successor to the Republic of China.Now that we've come this far, it is hard to find a way at all, but the conclusion is that Ukraine's independence is much simpler.
Japan and the United States ,and the majority of countries do not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Contain with Japan and the United States and the majority of countries, the United Nations has ambiguoused Taiwan's attribution for long time.
