The exchange won rate has not stopped falling.The No Japan movement is a campaign to buy domestic products.Nothing will change under the chaebol economy.
2022-02-08
Category:South Korea
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South Korean Industrial structure vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations
South Korea's trade dependence on GDP is more than 70 percent, including the service sector.In other words, domestic demand is low and foreign exchange is directly affected.Even if foreign demand is received, it does not circulate at home and flows abroad.If the person who made the purchase contract increases the dollar by 5% at the time of payment, the payment will increase by 5%.The won-dollar exchange rate is 1,200 won, but it has been hovering around 1,200 won in recent days.
Default due to bulk purchases
In order to maintain international competitiveness, chaebol companies such as SAMSUNG buy parts in bulk and produce them in bulk to reduce costs and sell them at low prices.In this case, large debts are always carried out and large payments are repeated, and problems arise when the value of the currency changes significantly during that period.This is the so-called default.Under these circumstances, the won's international credit rating has not increased, and South Korean companies can trade in dollars depending on the L/C of Japanese commercial banks.
South Korea experienced two foreign exchange crises in 1997 and 2008.No country will experience two foreign exchange crises in 10 years.In other words, South Korea's industrial form is vulnerable, and in short, it is trading beyond its currency capabilities.
Considering what Moon Jae In wants to do, the real intention is to socialize, control the currency, and stabilize the value of the won.Do you think the boycott is a campaign to buy domestic goods if it is reversed?
MEMO South Korea is listed by the FRB as a currency manipulator.
Only chaebol companies can grow
The reason why domestic demand is not expanding is the existence of chaebol companies.The role of chaebol companies in driving the Korean economy is important, but on the other hand, investment in chaebol companies is concentrated and other industries are not growing.In addition to the businesses run by chaebol companies, how can Korean companies grow globally?It can only be done with its own money without investment.
The boycott Japan fundamentally solves nothing
This structure will not change even if there is a boycott Japan.As a currency manipulator, even if it leaves the liberal economy, it will not change.It is necessary for the government to take the lead in fostering domestic demand and to attract investment in what industries to foster domestic small and medium-sized enterprises.The boycott Japan does not mean that South Korean domestic companies' sales will increase.
POINT Moon Jae In's term of office is less than three months, and criticism from his country seems to be gathering.I think it's quite late from Japan view.
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The new President Yoon Seok - yeol will be confused by many obstacles to its government.The general election will be held in 2024.
Yoon Seok-yul, the president, will be worried about the distortion with Congress.The Democratic Party which is ruling party has 172 seats (58.31 percent).It is still difficult to determine how the president can implement his policies in this power map.If you look at the presidential authority of the Korean Constitution, there are Articles 53, 73 and 74.Article 73 is the authority to sign diplomatic treaties and Article 74 is the command of the military.Article 53 provides the right to request reconsideration of a parliamentary resolution.Article 49 states that the bill will be approved by a majority of lawmakers and a majority of those present, but if the president requests reconsideration, it will require a majority of attendance and a 2/3 votes.If the figure is to rise from 58.31 percent to 67 percent, the ruling party will have to add to win 25 votes in favor.
The ruling party's bill is likely to be rejected if it is returned.However, since this is a request for reconsideration of the bill already approved in Congress, the bill submitted by the opposition party "People's Power" is likely to be overthrown by the ruling party in Congress.In other words, Yoon will have to wait for the 2024 general election to take effect.Before that, various bills could be rejected by Congress, and the Manifesto incident could be eliminated.In this environment, diplomatic rights such as strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance may be exercised to sign treaties or agreements.
Yoon Seok-yeol is also eager to improve relations between Korea and Japan.In response, Prime Minister Kishida said, "It is important to communicate closely with the new president and the new administration in order to restore sound relations based on Japan's consistent position.I want to see the new government's movements in the future and talk to the new government."Yoon Seok-yeol said in her manifesto, "Japan's apology and compensation are the prerequisite for improving relations between Korea and Japan," drawing attention to future developments."
In any case, he won the presidential election, but the difference in votes was less than 1 percent, 0.73 percent, and half of the people supported the opposition candidate.
It is difficult to determine how far policies can be implemented with presidential authority alone.Anti-Japanese forces are still strong.
The people's trial that began in the wake of the Itaewon accident - The horror of a country where all citizens think they are jurors
Is President Yoon responsible for the Itaewon accident?
A surprising public opinion poll
The police have administrative jurisdiction and are under the jurisdiction of the prefectural police
Is the president in charge of Halloween?
It appears that a candlelight demonstration was held in Itaewon, Seoul on Halloween in the name of commemorating the victims. South Korea is apparently the country of demonstrations, but organizers said ``50,000 people gathered.'' Police estimate the number of participants to be 9,000. The purpose seems to be to hold the current President Yoon's administration responsible for the Itaewon accident and demand his resignation.
A public opinion poll was conducted, and found that the government was responsible for the Itaewon disaster.73.1% said it was responsible, 23.3% said it was not responsible, and 53% said it was extremely responsible. Considering whether the decision should be based on public opinion polls in the first place, I wonder if South Korea's famous all-citizen jury trial system has started again. In the first place, it must be said that he is in a state of cessation of thinking, meaning that he does not have the composure to analyze the responsibility and causes of the problem.
Japan's police force is handled by the National Police Agency, which has administrative jurisdiction. The National Police Agency will be positioned as a special organization within the Public Safety Commission, which is an external bureau of the Cabinet. Rather than directing and supervising the National Police Agency on individual cases, the Public Safety Commission sets general policies and supervises whether they are being operated appropriately.
As it is an administrative organ, the main body of work lies with local governments, and prefectural police are responsible for accidents and incidents that occur under their jurisdiction. Hyogo Prefectural Police was held responsible for the Akashi fireworks display accident, and Nara Prefectural Police was held responsible for Abe's assassination.
They seem to be claiming that the president is responsible for the Itaewon accident, but that is not the case at all under Japanese law. What about Korean law? Normally, responsibility should be assumed by the person in charge, but does this mean that President Yoon should grasp the details of the security system and issue instructions regarding Halloween security? Or should we have decided by presidential order that this is how we should enjoy the Halloween festival?
Yoon Seok - yeol's digital strategy in Korea.World - class? Does he know what 6G and AI mean? This is an excerpt from an article made by Yun Seok-Yeol of the opposition People's Power, who is running in the Korean presidential election. It seems that Japan is aiming to become a digital hegemony. And South Korea will lead the way in 6G...
Presidential candidate Yoon Seok-yeol announced on the 28th that Korea will become a digital economic hegemon by training ``1 million digital talents.'' Candidate Yoon pledged to create a flexible work environment that suits the characteristics of the IT industry, and raised the need for flexible work, saying, ``Is it possible to restrict people from working from home for more than eight hours?'' I emphasized it again.
Candidate Yoon's comments are expected to be controversial as the Labor Standards Act already restricts working hours to over eight hours. Candidate Yoon held a press conference in Yeouido, saying, ``In order to reduce the technological gap with developed countries, we will raise next-generation artificial intelligence technology to the highest level in the world.'' We will introduce solutions and build the best AI system."
It seems that within three years we will reduce the technological gap with developed countries and raise it to the highest level in the world. I don't understand the meaning at all.
Candidate Yoon's vision is for South Korea to build the world's fastest and most powerful digital platform, export it to countries around the world, and become a digital economic hegemon. Developing an artificial intelligence industry was mentioned as one of the six practical tasks for this purpose. In detail, he explained that the company will build the world's largest cloud computing infrastructure for AI that can be used jointly by universities, research institutes, and companies. For the development of the software industry, he promised, ``The digital platform government will welcome the government, introduce public software innovation products for great national service, and help the growth of capable software companies.''
Candidate Yoon pledged to build a digital infrastructure that would upgrade the national 5G network and lead the world standard for 6G, and also offered a pledge to revitalize the ``My Data'' industry, which would allow citizens to receive custom benefits. He also pledged to support the semiconductor and mobility industries and build a cyber safety net. This means building a unified cyber response system for an integrated response during a cyber crisis, and building an integrated cyber response system that utilizes artificial intelligence.
I thought what the ruling party candidates were saying was a big deal, but the opposition candidates are also making a big deal about it in other areas. Is it enough to just win the Korean presidential election?
Prime Minister Kishida and South Korea's next president, Yoon Seok - Yeol, have a telephone conversation. Will there be any changes in foreign policy?
Regarding Yun Seok-Yeol's telephone talk with Prime Minister Kishida of Japan following the US, the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs' foreign policy states that ``we will strengthen mutual assistance with China, Japan, and Russia, centering on the South Korea-US alliance. ”, which indicates that the telephone conversation did not follow the order of current foreign policy.
Looking at South Korea's diplomatic white paper for 2021, it uses expressions for Japan that are a step above the terms ``closest neighbor'' and ``neighboring country,'' and after looking into it, it appears that this expression has been adopted in 2020.
Similarly, in 2020, Japan reinstated the expression "important neighbor", which had been removed in 2018 and 2019. Although this appears to be in response to South Korea's move, it is a step down from the "most important neighboring country" that was used up until 2017.
Since this was a telephone conversation to report on the election, I don't think it will have a direct impact on Japan's diplomatic blueprint for 2022, but since the South Korean president will be inaugurated in May, it is important for the country to be able to carry out full-fledged diplomatic activities. will be after that.
It may be necessary to check the 2022 edition of the Diplomatic Bluebook to see if there will be any changes in Japan's foreign policy in the future
The preamble of the Constitution lies at the root of South Korea's anti - Japanese sentiment.The reason for affirming anti - Japanese sentiment and excluding pro - Japanese sentiments is found in the
The preamble of the Korean Constitution states that 3.1 the legal system of the provisional government of the Republic of Korea will be inherited. Then, what is the March 1 Provisional Government of the Republic of Korea? It is an organization that called itself the Provisional Government and was established in 1919 as an anti-Japanese force. Looking at the contents of the charter, we see that the oath is strongly anti-Japanese: ``We will fight to the last man to indoctrinate Japan from barbarism.''
The preamble of the constitution describes the principles that govern the entire constitution. The structure of this idea is to inherit the legal structure of the March 1 Charter of the Provisional Government of the Republic of Korea. If we interpret these without contradiction, Article 21 of the latter part of the Korean Constitution states freedom of speech and Article 22 states academic freedom, but if we read it based on the preamble of the Constitution, we can see that 3.1 Legal framework of the provisional government It can also be interpreted as allowing freedom of speech and academics on the premise of inheriting the law. This is actually the case in Korea today.
If you look at the oath of the provisional government quoted in the preamble of the constitution, it clearly states anti-Japanese ideology. In the first place, the constitution should not quote anything or include language that assumes other countries.
In any case, as long as South Korea is under this constitution, anti-Japanese activities are always legitimate, and on the contrary, pro-Japanese activities are criticized as acts that destroy the legal system of the March 1 Provisional Government Charter and the Constitution. If members of the Diet follow the principle of adhering to the Constitution, then anti-Japanese members are conducting legitimate parliamentary activities. This is the main reason why it is said that #anti-Japan is South Korea's national policy.
How can the preamble of the Constitution be consistent with fundamental human rights such as freedom of speech, thought and belief, and academic freedom? There appears to be no case where a legal interpretation has been obtained in the Constitutional Court through a lawsuit or controversy that has raised this point. The Korean government is free to expand its interpretation as much as it wants. This is the case now, as seen in the No Japan movement, where anti-Japanese activities are legitimate activities, and pro-Japanese speech is denounced as ``traitors.'' Is this an exception to basic human rights, with speech affirming the era of Japanese rule being suppressed, or is anti-Japanese a duty of every Korean citizen as written in the Provisional Government's oath?
Provisional Government OathOathTo my 2,000,000 fellow citizens whom I respect and loveMarch 1st year of the Republic of Korea One day, since the Korean nation declared its independence, men and women, young and old, all classes, and all sects, of course, have come together to fight under the inhumane violence of Japan, the Germany of the East. The sympathy of the world is now suddenly focused on our people because they have expressed the character of a nation that is extremely patient with fairness, longs for independence and freedom for its people, and loves truth, justice, and humanity. It was at this time that the government was organized with the mandate of all the people of the country. I hereby swear that this government, together with all the people of this country, will work wholeheartedly to fulfill the great mission of restoring the nation and establishing its identity as a nation, observing the provisions of the provisional constitution and the principles of international society. My fellow countrymen, be inspired. Every drop of blood we shed is the gift of freedom and fortune to our descendants. It is the precious foundation for building God's kingdom. The way of our people will surely edify Japan's wild horses. Our justice truly trumps Japan's violence. My brethren, rise and battleto the last man.
3.1 The provisional government was the result of an anti-Japanese movement that occurred on March 1, 1919 under Japanese rule, and after that, Syngman Rhee established a provisional government in Shanghai, where he was in exile. This provisional government is considered the legitimate root of the Korean government, and Syngman Rhee became the first president of Korea after Japan's defeat. In other words, the Korean government itself is based on anti-Japanese organizations. Therefore, the Constitution will inherit the legal system of the Provisional Government Charter.
It is no wonder why this story has not been reported in Japan, but it seems safe to assume that there are almost no members of the Korean Diet who are not anti-Japanese. On the contrary, he says that it is impossible to become a member of the Diet while advocating pro-Japan policy. Rather than saying, ``Many South Korean parliamentarians are anti-Japanese,'' it seems more accurate to say, ``South Korean parliamentarians exist because they are anti-Japanese.'' South Korea will never become a pro-Japanese country. That future will never come. Will the South Korean government or National Assembly propose a constitutional amendment and delete the text written in the preamble? If that happens, the roots and identity of the Korean government will disappear.
Anti-Japanese activities are legitimate activities that are affirmed by the Korean Constitution. Depending on the interpretation, it can also be considered to be outside the scope of freedom of speech. We need to think about South Korea with this in mind.