According to a Korean public opinion poll, the support rates for political parties are ４２.４% for both opposition parties, and ３９.６% for People's Power.The general election will be held this year.
2024-01-20
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Survey results showing high support for opposition parties
According to a Korean Realmeter opinion poll conducted in the fourth and fifth weeks of March 2020, the party support rate was 44.6% for the Democratic Party of Korea, and 30.0% for the United Future Party, the predecessor of People's Power. The Realmeter survey results announced on the 15th of this month show that the Democratic Party is 42.4%, and the People's Power is 39.6%.Although the gap has narrowed, the Democratic Party's approval rating has fallen by only 2.2 points. do not have.
The Democratic Party remains almost unchanged.
In the 2020 survey, 55.7% approved of Moon Jae-in, and in the current survey, 36.3% approved of President Yoon Seok-Yeol. Interpreting these figures literally, expectations for the power of the people in the legislature have increased, but the support rate for the Democratic Party has remained almost unchanged. Both parties are members of the Democratic Party, whose party is led by Lee Jae-myung, who miraculously survived the assassination that everyone thought was a farce and was discharged from the hospital after a long hospitalization. Lee Jae-myung is currently being indicted by prosecutors.
China's economy supports the bedrock support layer
These Democratic Party supporters can be seen as a rock-solid support group that will continue to support any party leader no matter what. Are these people who make a living through trade with China, and whose livelihoods are directly connected to their support for China? South Korea's trade dependence is 81.9% of GDP. The pro-Japanese and pro-American and pro-China and pro-North Korean compositions were one of the themes brought to light by Moon Jae-in, who stirred up the No Japan movement, but the essential issue is the economy. How far has the withdrawal from China's economy progressed?
Right-wing movement is declining
In the Facebook group of the author who co-authored ``Anti-Japanese Tribalism,'' it is clear that the number of posters and viewers has decreased dramatically since Yun Seok-yeo became president. Is it because the No Japan movement has subsided? In that case, would those people have been better off if the No Japan movement had disappeared? I wonder how many people out there just wish they could drink Japanese beer. In other words, were the pro-Japanese simply rebelling against the intense anti-Japanese movements that were taking place? At least what we can say is that the power of pro-China, pro-North Korean forces does not seem to be weakening.
Will there be another left-wing government?
If we go into the 2024 general election in this state, there is a high possibility that the Democratic Party will once again control the largest number of seats. If this is the case, the Yun Seok-Yue administration will be run in a twisted manner throughout his term. Anti-Japanese issues are also legal issues. South Korea is a country with no anti-Japanese convictions. Since the Democratic Party is the most powerful party in both countries, it is difficult to bring about social change through legislation, and there is a high possibility that an anti-Japanese leftist president will be elected again in the next presidential election.
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The exchange won rate has not stopped falling.The No Japan movement is a campaign to buy domestic products.Nothing will change under the chaebol economy.
South Korea's trade dependence on GDP is more than 70 percent, including the service sector.In other words, domestic demand is low and foreign exchange is directly affected.Even if foreign demand is received, it does not circulate at home and flows abroad.If the person who made the purchase contract increases the dollar by 5% at the time of payment, the payment will increase by 5%.The won-dollar exchange rate is 1,200 won, but it has been hovering around 1,200 won in recent days.
In order to maintain international competitiveness, chaebol companies such as SAMSUNG buy parts in bulk and produce them in bulk to reduce costs and sell them at low prices.In this case, large debts are always carried out and large payments are repeated, and problems arise when the value of the currency changes significantly during that period.This is the so-called default.Under these circumstances, the won's international credit rating has not increased, and South Korean companies can trade in dollars depending on the L/C of Japanese commercial banks.
South Korea experienced two foreign exchange crises in 1997 and 2008.No country will experience two foreign exchange crises in 10 years.In other words, South Korea's industrial form is vulnerable, and in short, it is trading beyond its currency capabilities.
Considering what Moon Jae In wants to do, the real intention is to socialize, control the currency, and stabilize the value of the won.Do you think the boycott is a campaign to buy domestic goods if it is reversed?
South Korea is listed by the FRB as a currency manipulator.
The reason why domestic demand is not expanding is the existence of chaebol companies.The role of chaebol companies in driving the Korean economy is important, but on the other hand, investment in chaebol companies is concentrated and other industries are not growing.In addition to the businesses run by chaebol companies, how can Korean companies grow globally?It can only be done with its own money without investment.
This structure will not change even if there is a boycott Japan.As a currency manipulator, even if it leaves the liberal economy, it will not change.It is necessary for the government to take the lead in fostering domestic demand and to attract investment in what industries to foster domestic small and medium-sized enterprises.The boycott Japan does not mean that South Korean domestic companies' sales will increase.
Moon Jae In's term of office is less than three months, and criticism from his country seems to be gathering.I think it's quite late from Japan view.
South Korean President with 28% Approval Rating - Breaks Promises to China if Seeking Relations with Japan - Country that Breaks Promises to Japan if China [Contents]
South Korea's new president with low approval rating
It's advantageous if you don't make achievements
Anti-Japanese Appeal on the Takeshima Issue
China just waits and sees
Change of government will change things
President Yoon Seok-yeol's approval rating is 28% (according to Gallup Korea survey), and he has been facing a tough fight since he took office. Since the administration began as a lame duck in the first place, there is no change in the situation where the government cannot move unless the power of the people wins the 2024 general election.
Looking ahead to 2024, the Democratic Party of Korea, which is the enemy, will be at a disadvantage if President Yoon produces results and achievements. There is no mistake in going on the offensive of not letting the president do anything.
Although President Yoon Seok-yue has appealed for the improvement of Japan-South Korea relations, he is willing to make concessions on the Takeshima issue, such as by conducting marine surveys around Takeshima. Even at this stage, he is ridiculed as a pro-Japanese president or a betrayal president. In any case, from a Japanese point of view, it can only be seen as a double standard.
As for China, as was the case with Moon Jae-in, it seems that they are just watching the future of this administration.
The deployment of THAAD under the Park Geun-hye administration cooled relations between China and South Korea, but under the Moon Jae-in administration, they exchanged promises with China about the three non-compliances, and the current president has declared that he does not know about the three non-compliances.
Right-wing and left-wing South Korea have a unique structure of pro-U.S./pro-Japan and pro-China conflicts, and they seem to understand well that a change in government can lead to a major change in diplomatic policy.
In the first place, isn't there a question in South Korea about where the national ideology of South Korea, which goes back and forth between liberal democracy and socialist dictatorship, lies? On the contrary, they are constantly intimidatingly questioning each other about meaningless alternatives, whether they are pro-Japanese or anti-Japanese.
South Korea, where anti-Japan precedes the national ideology of democracy or socialism. Any problem can be dwarfed by anti-Japan fire, making it a very easy tool to use politically.
Japan - South Korea relations, in which historical issues arise.Korea is rejecting Japan, which is becoming a historical issue.
What is the Japan-South Korea issue?It's a historical issue.This is a historical issue 77 years ago.The Japanese government established a joint research committee on Japan-South Korea history to make it a historical issue, not a political one, but South Korea rejected it halfway.So what will happen if Japan-South Korea relations are segregated before and after World War II?Japan and South Korea established diplomatic relations in 1965, and there was no public cultural exchange until the Japan-South Korea Joint Declaration in 1998.Japan-South Korea relations ignore the 1965 agreement, the Japan-South Korea Joint Declaration, and various other promises made by Japan and South Korea, and continue to deal with historical issues more than 77 years ago, regardless of culture or economy.
I don't know why Korea, which continues to cry out for historical issues, refuses to accept the Japanese government's attempt to turn it into a historical issue into a historical issue.Korean politicians often use the term "two-track strategy," but it is only a false diplomacy from the perspective of Japan.Japan has already proposed a two-track strategy.It is not the idea of using what is available, but simply separating historical and political issues.
The Japan-South Korea Joint Research Committee on History, which was established under the Koizumi administration, is currently not active at all.How will this solve the historical problem?
severance of diplomatic relations betwee There are many people in both Japan and South Korea calling for a break in diplomatic relations, but I thought that a break in diplomatic relations between Japan and South Korea should be expected from the beginning after the recruitment ruling and the exclusion of White countries.Former Prime Minister Abe already expressed his opinion on July 3, 2019, that the exclusion of White Country was not retaliation for the recruitment ruling, but a failure to keep his promise between countries.The 1965 Agreement is an agreement on claims in the treaty in which Japan and South Korea restored diplomatic relations.Abolition of this agreement is a loss of the premise of diplomatic relations, and it is obvious that diplomatic relations will break off.
Now, considering the specific problems of breaking off diplomatic relations at the private level, the video link I posted is a couple of Japanese and Taiwanese Youtuber.If private marriage is allowed, private economic activities are allowed.Strategic materials and military-related products that must be negotiated between governments will be regulated.It would be a substantial break in diplomatic relations if we could not communicate with each other at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics.
On the other hand, countries without diplomatic relations have no further interests and do not lead to war.It is not the break of diplomatic relations that is in danger, but the travel ban order.Japan has a special relationship called Taiwan.The lack of intergovernmental exchanges has never been a problem at the private level.
Death toll from Halloween Shogi chess accident in Seoul rises to 151 - Different countries respond differently to similar accidents.
Deadly accident occurs on Halloween in Seoul
Akashi fireworks festival accident for which police were held responsible
Shanghai accident started with suspicious report
China's return to people's responsibility
How will South Korea sum up this issue
The number of people killed in a shogi accident during Halloween in Seoul has increased to 151. This is the worst accident in terms of man-made disasters. This accident reminds me of the Akashi fireworks festival accident in Japan and the New Year countdown accident on the Shanghai Bund in China. Shogi accidents occur when players are pushed from behind in a crowded crowd, or when they step on someone else's foot and lose their balance. This chain causes a major accident.
This also happened during the Akashi Fireworks Festival, and 11 people died. However, it is impossible for the people who disrupted that arrangement to be held responsible. Problems with the police and security were investigated day after day, and in the end, a civil court ordered Hyogo Prefectural Police and the security company to pay damages. The conclusion is that it was foreseeable and that the necessary measures were not taken. In the criminal trial, one police officer and one security company were sentenced to 2 years and 6 months in prison, and 3 city employees were sentenced to 2 years and 6 months in prison, suspended for 5 years was found guilty.
Next, regarding the incident in Shanghai Bund, I was in Shanghai on the day of the accident. A Chinese person I spoke to the next day asked me, didn't you go to the Bund last night? I found out when I was asked. According to the news reports after the accident, 36 people were said to have died. From then on, it turned out to be a complete lie. On New Year's Eve, Shanghai was in a state of chaos, with people rushing to the point where it was difficult to walk, not only on the Bund, but also everywhere, including the station premises, and it would have been no surprise if an accident occurred anywhere. . If it was an accident during the New Year's countdown on the Bund, it was clear that 36 people would not have been there.
Afterwards, I was looking into how this incident was summarized in China, and came across an article called Expert Opinion. "Increase public awareness of safety, avoid danger, and avoid crowded places." In other words, public responsibility for gathering too much. It was not intended to hold the government or police responsible.
There was clearly a problem with the accident in Seoul, and it was a catastrophe in which many people died. Maybe it's because it happened right after the accident, but when I look at articles from South Korea, there doesn't seem to be any complaints about the lack of police or security. In Japan, a ruling after the accident increased the responsibility of the police and security companies for events where large numbers of people gather, resulting in an increase in the safety of citizens.
Shogi falling accidents occur in various countries, but the way each country views and deals with the problem is completely different. How will South Korea summarize this accident?
