The new President Yoon Seok - yeol will be confused by many obstacles to its government.The general election will be held in 2024.
2022-03-10
Category:South Korea
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The new government begins in a twisted state
Yoon Seok-yul, the president, will be worried about the distortion with Congress.The Democratic Party which is ruling party has 172 seats (58.31 percent).It is still difficult to determine how the president can implement his policies in this power map.If you look at the presidential authority of the Korean Constitution, there are Articles 53, 73 and 74.Article 73 is the authority to sign diplomatic treaties and Article 74 is the command of the military.Article 53 provides the right to request reconsideration of a parliamentary resolution.Article 49 states that the bill will be approved by a majority of lawmakers and a majority of those present, but if the president requests reconsideration, it will require a majority of attendance and a 2/3 votes .If the figure is to rise from 58.31 percent to 67 percent, the ruling party will have to add to win 25 votes in favor.
Will the full launch be after 2024
The ruling party's bill is likely to be rejected if it is returned.However, since this is a request for reconsideration of the bill already approved in Congress, the bill submitted by the opposition party "People's Power" is likely to be overthrown by the ruling party in Congress.In other words, Yoon will have to wait for the 2024 general election to take effect.Before that, various bills could be rejected by Congress, and the Manifesto incident could be eliminated.In this environment, diplomatic rights such as strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance may be exercised to sign treaties or agreements.
Prime Minister Kishida is also eager to improve relations
Yoon Seok-yeol is also eager to improve relations between Korea and Japan.In response, Prime Minister Kishida said, "It is important to communicate closely with the new president and the new administration in order to restore sound relations based on Japan's consistent position.I want to see the new government's movements in the future and talk to the new government."Yoon Seok-yeol said in her manifesto, "Japan's apology and compensation are the prerequisite for improving relations between Korea and Japan," drawing attention to future developments."
The presidential election that divides the country
In any case, he won the presidential election, but the difference in votes was less than 1 percent, 0.73 percent, and half of the people supported the opposition candidate.
POINT It is difficult to determine how far policies can be implemented with presidential authority alone.Anti-Japanese forces are still strong.
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[related article]
[Korea] A major failure in the nuclear phase - out policy highlighted by the rise in electricity prices - Passing the blame on to the people and giving them cold water.
South Korea will raise electricity prices
Korea Electric Power fell into a large deficit
Moon Jae-in's obvious mismanagement
Is the Fukushima prefecture product a commotion to distract people?
Countries with anti-Japanese spinal reflexes
The day you regain your composure
The South Korean government has decided to raise household electricity rates by 5 won per kWh starting in July. This year's additional measures are expected to raise prices by about 15%.
KEPCO posted an operating deficit of 5.86 trillion won last year, the largest in its history. The deficit in the first quarter of this year was already 7.8 trillion won, and unless the tariffs are raised, the annual deficit is expected to reach 20 trillion to 30 trillion won. Therefore, the idea is to transfer that deficit to the people as usage fees.
The Moon Jae-in government is being held responsible for its policy of ``phasing out nuclear power without increasing electricity rates.'' KEPCO, which had a surplus of several trillion won, became a loss-making company under the Moon government. During the five years of the Moon administration, KEPCO's debt increased by 41 trillion won. There are reports that if we phase out nuclear power, electricity costs will have to rise by 2.6% every year, and by 40% by 2030.
Korea Electric Power is South Korea's public power company. Japan's ban on importing seafood from Fukushima, the release of treated water into the ocean, and the controversy surrounding athletes' meals at the Tokyo Olympics are all efforts to cover up the failures of energy policy under the Moon Jae-in administration and distract the public. It looks like it was a festival.
They completely ignore scientific evidence, create sensationalism, and link it to anti-Japanese sentiment. When this happens, the Korean people lose their cool and become overheated. This is the result of anti-Japanese education, and is like an anti-Japanese switch that the South Korean government often uses.
The anti-Japanese mood seems to have eased somewhat with the arrival of the Yun Seok-Yeong administration, but will the public bear the burden of the Moon Jae-in administration's failures in energy policy, which will further dampen the anti-Japanese fervor? Regarding the causal relationship between cause and effect, in Korean society the problem shifts to Japan. Japan has nothing to do with the failure of energy policy. Even if people say things have calmed down, I feel like it's already too late.
[Korea] The mystery of Han Dong-hoon, chairman of the emergency response committee, who was supposed to have resigned, becoming party leader
This person is Han Dong-hoon, who is currently the leader of the ruling party of South Korea, the People Power Party. After the People Power Party lost the general election in April this year, he resigned from his position as emergency response committee chairman, but later ran for the party's leadership election on July 23rd and became its leader. Before the election, some Seoul city council members belonging to the party proposed to "repeal the ordinance that restricts the use of symbols of Japanese imperialism such as the Rising Sun Flag in public places," and in response to the party's declaration that it "strongly opposes the repeal of the ordinance," Han said that he would take strict disciplinary action, and the city council members withdrew the ordinance in just one day.
Han Dong-hoon said, "The use of symbols of Japanese imperialism in public places is absolutely unacceptable. The city council members who proposed the repeal of the ordinance will be investigated by the party and will take strict measures." And before the general election, a conflict arose between him and the First Lady over their differences in views, and the Blue House asked him to resign from his position as an emergency response committee member. Does this person's becoming the party leader mean that the balance of power within the ruling party, the People's Power Party, is changing dramatically?
First of all, this person seems to be claiming that they cannot win the election unless they incorporate the left-wing forces in South Korea, and by left-wing forces, they mean so-called anti-Japanese forces. In other words, comfort women groups and groups that support the forced labor issue. The People's Power Party has followed a pro-American and pro-Japanese path, but in the end, it seems that they are shifting the blame for their major election defeat to that.
The background to this is that these anti-Japanese groups worked together with the right wing, and the Korean right wing was a party with strong anti-Japanese tendencies, but the comfort women agreement was concluded during the Park Geun-hye administration, and the text of this agreement called for the establishment of a new foundation to resolve the comfort women issue, meaning that the previous comfort women group, the Korean Council for Justice and Remembrance for the Issues of Military Sexual Slavery by Japan, now the Korean Council for Justice and Remembrance for the Issues of Military Sexual Slavery by Japan, would lose their position completely, and the Moon Jae-in administration incorporated this.
This is how the left wing became an anti-Japanese party. Moreover, it became an even more extreme left wing party than ever before, and instigated the No Japan movement.
South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin strives to resolve the forced labor and comfort women issue - What does the Korean economy, where the won continues to be weak, demand from Japan?
South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs is extremely knowledgeable
South Korea is keen on repairing Japan-Korea relations
Korea's diplomatic techniques that you can't let your guard down
True feelings about getting close to Japan
Excited about swapping
To what extent will the Japan-Korea issue be resolved
Clarify what relationship improvement means
Special treatment is over
South Korean Foreign Minister Park, who is visiting Japan, emphasized that regarding the issue of labor recruitment lawsuits, ``We are making efforts within South Korea to find a desirable solution before cashing out,'' and added, ``The Japanese side also responded with a sincere response.'' I would appreciate it if you could give me that."
Mr. Nukaga, who met with him after the meeting, told reporters that he "intended to respect" the 2015 comfort women agreement that confirmed the "final and irreversible resolution" of the comfort women issue. I made it.
The current Yun Seok-Yue administration appears to be eager to repair relations with Japan. Before he took office as president, he sent a delegation of members of Congress to express his sincerity, and after taking office, the Minister of Foreign Affairs has shown an attitude of fully accepting the intentions of the Japanese side. But don't let your guard down.
The South Korean government's approach so far has been to extract some kind of concession from Japan, take it as a diplomatic credit, and then try to make a temporary move, and the pattern is to come back to it again and again.
Japan should negotiate without losing its stance that there is nothing Japan can do. In reality, the issue of post-war compensation has already been resolved in all agreements between Japan and South Korea.
The Korean won continues to be at a low price with no signs of rising. Due to the impact of interest rate hikes and the Bank of Korea trying to recover the won spent during the coronavirus pandemic, corporate investment will slow down. Since the won is not depreciating as sharply as before, it seems that the price is not falling off a cliff and is managing to cope even with the price dropping to around 1,300 won.
The US Federal Reserve has also begun withdrawing dollars from the market and raising interest rates. The Korean government wants to carry out another swap and looks at the American expression, but its expression remains firm. That's why it's Japan. I would like to somehow conclude a swap with the key currency to provide peace of mind.
Although South Korea has experienced economic growth, its industrial structure is a chaebol economy that generates profits through processing trade through bulk purchases and bulk sales, so domestic demand never grows, and it is greatly affected by exchange rate fluctuations. The national debt is increasing, household debt has exceeded GDP, and land prices in Seoul continue to soar, making it difficult to see when they will rebound. There is nothing wrong with the fact that Won is vulnerable.
The Japan-Korea issue is not just about the forced labor issue or the comfort women issue. In addition to the Takeshima issue, South Korea has broken all of the agreements that Japan and South Korea have concluded to date. The Japan-Korea joint declaration was left blank. The issue of excluding countries from the White List stems from concerns about the transfer of funds to North Korea and third countries.
Just because the issue of forced labor, which is about to be turned into cash, and the issue of comfort women, where statues of comfort women are being erected all over the world, are recent issues, it is normalization because these two issues have been resolved. Would you? In the first place, when South Korea refers to normalization, it means that they want to go back to the days when they were given special treatment.
Why did South Korea become a white country? Why did Japan do swaps during two economic collapses? This is only because Korea was given special treatment. It should be made clear that there will never again be a time when relations are treated as special even though they have been normalized.
Meeting with South Korean parliamentarians and Foreign Minister Hayashi. Is it meaningful to deal with mere performance diplomacy? An unprecedented response between members of the Diet and government ministers
Foreign Minister Hayashi met at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the morning of the 25th with the "policy consultation delegation" sent by South Korean President-elect Yoon Seok-you to Japan. There have been criticisms within the Liberal Democratic Party of having a meeting between a mere parliamentary group that has not yet been established as a government and Japanese government ministers. Since it is unknown whether they are really delegations, will the Foreign Minister visit all of them when a foreign member visits Japan? And since I had an interview with the members of the Diet, there is no reason why Yoon Seok-you would not have an interview after taking office as president.
Interview in a state of violation of international law
Currently, the Japanese government is in a position not to negotiate unless the Korean government corrects the state of violation of international law, and the state of violation of international law has not changed yet. After that, They had a meeting with former Minister of Finance Fukushiro Nukaga of the Liberal Democratic Party and former Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Nakagawa of the Constitutional Democratic Party, who are the chairman of the Japan-Korea Parliamentary Union, at a hotel in Tokyo for about an hour and a half. One of the points that should be evaluated is that the Korean parliamentarians should return to the Japan-Korea relations at the time of the 1998 Japan-Korea Joint Declaration. In 1998, it became a joint declaration that embodied the ideal way of exchange between Japan and South Korea from the 1965 Japan-Korea Basic Treaty, such as the opening of Japanese culture in South Korea and the resolution of the problem of fishing rights in Takeshima. Even if it is simply said to improve Japan-South Korea relations, it is commendable that they have discussed them many times and have shown specific target points because the Korean side has destroyed everything for their own convenience. However, even if it returned to the time of the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration, this declaration was virtually invalidated by the National Assembly of South Korea in less than two years. How can we prevent it from being invalidated again even if it returns in 1998? That point is missing.
Do you make another promise with a country that does not keep your promise?
I think that the problem that South Korea does not keep its promise is that the country itself does not have a structure to keep its promise. Even if the president of that era considers the times and makes a promise with Japan through diplomatic immunity, Korean parliamentarians who have an anti-Japanese structure and an anti-Japanese constitution will invalidate them with the power of the legislature. Is the Kishida administration rushing for easy diplomatic achievements as it has no diplomatic achievements so far? Foreign Minister Hayashi is in a good mood playing the piano in the United Kingdom. Will he repeat the Japan-Korea relations that he has repeated over and over again?
Tokyo Olympic Summit With the possibility that Suga's general election will be held in September, is Moon Jae In trying to shake up the situation by citing summit talks and participation in the Olympics?To put it bluntly, holding a summit between Japan and South Korea will only have disadvantages for Prime Minister Kan.Shigeru Ishiba, who has been considered a candidate for the next prime minister in last year's general election, was criticized by the people as a result of his appeal for reconciliation with China and South Korea.Prime Minister Suga probably does not want to get involved before the general election.