What has clearly changed due to the Japan - Korea issue - It is the Japanese sentiment toward Korea and the perception of Korea - It is not easy to overturn this.
2022-04-27
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What is clearly different before and after the Moon Jae-in administration
What kind of Japan-Korea relations will the new South Korean government build in the future? Since it is the administration after the Moon Jae-in administration, we must see a completely different point from other administrations. It is different from the Kim Dae Jung administration and the Park Geun-hye administration. The biggest difference is the Japanese national sentiment. Since the 1998 Japan-Korea Joint Declaration, the Japan-Korea World Cup has been held, and the Japanese have supported the success of this soccer tournament. What was introduced in Japan during this period was Korea with a good image. It is a Korean drama and K-POP. Of course, this is a creative and fictional world of entertainment, but many Korean fans were born in Japan, and this played a role of friendship between Japan and South Korea to a certain extent. However, what Moon Jae-in revealed was the exact opposite of South Korea, which is completely different from these. It is the earnest desire of the Korean people to pray for the destruction of Japan.
What is clearly different before and after the Moon Jae-in administration
The setting of the target point to return to the 1998 Japan-Korea Joint Declaration set by President-elect Yoon Seok-you should be evaluated to a certain extent. With the joint declaration of Keizo Obuchi and Kim Dae Jung, Japan-South Korea relations should have taken a normal direction. Then why couldn't we walk that way? This is an issue. In other words, Japan moved forward in line with the declaration, but South Korea retreated. Why is this? We have to think about this problem right now. If this is misunderstood, future negotiations between Japan and South Korea will not proceed well. On the contrary, not only the Korean government but also the Kishida administration will be blown away in an instant. China will be staring at it.
The improvement mood does not improve
History must probably repeat itself if the core issues disappear as a result of the long-lasting stress of the change of government from the left-wing South Korean government. It should be back in 1965, or maybe 100 years ago. At least in 1965, Japan and South Korea solved the problem comprehensively in the efforts of both countries. Japan and South Korea have reached an agreement for the future in Asia, which is suffering from postwar reconstruction that is incomparably difficult due to the current friction between Japan and South Korea.
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[South Korea] If you have the world's highest household debt, you don't have enough disposable income - If you don't spend money, it's just bad manners.
Private/government debt 254%
Household debt is 104.2% of GDP
Global trend of interest rate hikes
Mortgage reduces disposable income
A traveler who just has bad manners
In a statement distributed in advance of the conference, Professor Ham Joon-ho of Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies, who served as a member of the Bank of Korea's Financial and Monetary Committee, stated, ``Korea's macro leverage (private and government debt) level has expanded to 254% of GDP. ” he pointed out.
The household debt balance has continued to expand for 16 years, reaching a record high of 1,850.9 trillion won (approximately 176.9871 trillion yen) in the April-June 2021 period. According to a study by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), Japan's GDP ratio was 104.2%, the highest among 37 major countries and regions. Incidentally, the countries other than South Korea are followed by Hong Kong (92.0%), the UK (89.4%), and the US (79.2%).
On the 15th, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), the central bank of the United States, announced the first major interest rate hike in about 30 years. The policy rate will be raised by 0.75% to a range of 1.50 to 1.75%.
Prior to this, South Korea announced that it would raise its policy interest rate from 1.5% to 1.75% in May. The rate was set at 1.5% in April, making this the second consecutive month of interest rate hikes. This will also be a severe blow to those who are burdened with household debt.
South Korea's per capita GDP is approaching that of Japan. According to the 2021 IMF announcement, Japan's price is $39,340 and South Korea's price is $34,801. However, Japan's household debt is around 66-7%.
Housing loans are the largest component of household debt. The skyrocketing price of land in Seoul continues to skyrocket, forcing many to borrow large sums of money to purchase apartments. As a result, even if GDP and wages rise, most of the money goes toward repaying household debts, resulting in less disposable income. I don't have any money to spend.
Even after salaries are paid, the money goes straight through the tunnel and is returned to financial institutions, where it is returned to the market. This is the reality of GDP per capita in the Korean economy.
As the coronavirus pandemic begins to subside and overseas travel is gradually lifted, travel to Japan is expected to become a boom again in South Korea. It's not that they like Japan. The above reasons are largely responsible for why Japan is chosen as a nearby travel destination.
And just because you come to Japan doesn't mean you have to spend money. There are quite a few groups that find faults, point them out, and complain to each other. It is said that Korean tourists just have bad manners.
With only three days left before the South Korean presidential election, what is the contrast between the two manifestos and Japan - South Korea relations?
The Korean presidential election is only three days away.According to the latest opinion polls, the two seem to be at odds with each other's throats.In the past presidential election, it seems that the dominant candidate in the last poll won the election.Generally speaking, voter turnout is not the only way to go up.If the turnout is low, it will benefit the conservatives as well as the current administration.If voter turnout rises, those who are not usually interested in politics will participate in politics, which will be motivated to change the status quo.
Moon Jae In was working hard on how to get floating votes.This is the minimum wage increase and the feminist movement.And, it succeeded in winning floating votes for young people and women.The result is the worst policy, but the 2022 manifesto shows that there are many contrasting and worrying parts.Lee Jae-myung said, "It includes correcting Moon Jae In's mistakes.Specific industrial investments will create jobs, and urban functions would be dispersed as a countermeasure soaring land prices in Seoul.Yoon Seok-yeol, on the other hand, advocates attracting and increasing investment through the free economy.This is in contrast to industrial investment by large governments and job creation by small governments.
Lee Jae-myeong is pro-China and Yoon Seok-yeol is pro-U.S. in terms of diplomacy and defense.Yoon Seok-yeol mentioned the deployment of additional Saad.This means that the agreement with China will be scrapped.This means that China will confront China, but China is likely to impose economic sanctions on the Korean economy, which is highly dependent on China.Lee Jae-myeong did not mention the relationship with Japan, and Yoon demanded an apology and compensation from Japan.Does this mean that Japan-South Korea relations will be included in the U.S.-Japan relationship, rather than immediately restoring Japan-South Korea relations?In any case, if the right wins, there will be room for future negotiations from the Japanese side.However, relations between Japan and South Korea will end again when they demand an apology and compensation for the Japanese Military comfort woman issue.
No matter which candidate wins, I don't think I can expect much about Japan-South Korea relations.
minimum wage In Korea, the minimum wage has increased by 35% in four years...
Apartment prices in Seoul have risen 93 percent over the past four years...
If the minimum wage is 8,720 won, is it 6,459 won four years ago?The increase in the minimum wage increases the number of self-employed businesses closing.Decrease in employment...
Usually, Increasing jobs come first.Wouldn't the minimum wage go up for companies to secure employment if the effective recruitment ratio goes up?I can't believe going to raise the minimum wage first.You're a fool.
Japan's minimum wage varies from prefecture to prefecture.Of course, if the minimum wage is raised, the government will carefully observe the price index and economic conditions of each region.It is unthinkable to raise the price by 35 percent across the board.
Another South Korean Army member fleeing to North Korea? The reality of the 22nd Infantry Division, which is in charge of sloppy border security.
On January 1st of the new year, an unidentified person climbed over the iron fence from the South Korean side and entered the North Korean side, leading to the attack on South Korean troops including the 22nd Infantry Division of the South Korean Army on the Eastern Front in the area where this incident occurred. The Army is on emergency alert.
The 22nd Infantry Division, a unit located on this border, has caused various problems in the past. In June 1984, there was another incident involving a large firearm that resulted in 23 casualties.
In June 2004, a private on duty at battalion headquarters left his post with a firearm and 15 rounds of live ammunition and was captured eight hours later.
In October 2008, a private second class on guard duty committed suicide with a rifle.
On March 28, 2012, a soldier was found dead with a gunshot wound to the head.
In 2005, two reserve sergeants and others were arrested a month later after seizing two K-2 rifles, six grenades, and 7,000 live rounds.
In 2005, a vessel believed to be a fishing boat headed for North Korea, and in October 2009, it was revealed that civilians had cut through iron fences and headed north.
In 2012, the so-called "knock defection incident" caused a stir in society. On October 2, 2012, North Korean soldiers crossed the border and knocked on the door of the living quarters, asking for asylum, but it turned out that the troops were unaware of the fact that the iron fence had been cut until then, and two generals Two territorial officers were reprimanded.
The 22nd Division has been involved in many incidents in the past, and is said to account for the majority of incidents that occur within the South Korean military, with some deriding it as an encyclopedia of military incidents.
The terrain is also difficult. The front boundary stretches for tens of kilometers, surrounded by rugged mountain ranges.
``Many soldiers are said to suffer from knee pain because the iron fence border line is very steep and goes up and down.As a result, guard duty is more difficult than in other divisions.This is also the reason why defections and incidents of North Korea are so common.
Although security near the border is thorough, it seems that there are many cases of people defecting or fleeing from South Korea or North Korea.
The exchange won rate has not stopped falling.The No Japan movement is a campaign to buy domestic products.Nothing will change under the chaebol economy.
South Korea's trade dependence on GDP is more than 70 percent, including the service sector.In other words, domestic demand is low and foreign exchange is directly affected.Even if foreign demand is received, it does not circulate at home and flows abroad.If the person who made the purchase contract increases the dollar by 5% at the time of payment, the payment will increase by 5%.The won-dollar exchange rate is 1,200 won, but it has been hovering around 1,200 won in recent days.
In order to maintain international competitiveness, chaebol companies such as SAMSUNG buy parts in bulk and produce them in bulk to reduce costs and sell them at low prices.In this case, large debts are always carried out and large payments are repeated, and problems arise when the value of the currency changes significantly during that period.This is the so-called default.Under these circumstances, the won's international credit rating has not increased, and South Korean companies can trade in dollars depending on the L/C of Japanese commercial banks.
South Korea experienced two foreign exchange crises in 1997 and 2008.No country will experience two foreign exchange crises in 10 years.In other words, South Korea's industrial form is vulnerable, and in short, it is trading beyond its currency capabilities.
Considering what Moon Jae In wants to do, the real intention is to socialize, control the currency, and stabilize the value of the won.Do you think the boycott is a campaign to buy domestic goods if it is reversed?
South Korea is listed by the FRB as a currency manipulator.
The reason why domestic demand is not expanding is the existence of chaebol companies.The role of chaebol companies in driving the Korean economy is important, but on the other hand, investment in chaebol companies is concentrated and other industries are not growing.In addition to the businesses run by chaebol companies, how can Korean companies grow globally?It can only be done with its own money without investment.
This structure will not change even if there is a boycott Japan.As a currency manipulator, even if it leaves the liberal economy, it will not change.It is necessary for the government to take the lead in fostering domestic demand and to attract investment in what industries to foster domestic small and medium-sized enterprises.The boycott Japan does not mean that South Korean domestic companies' sales will increase.
Moon Jae In's term of office is less than three months, and criticism from his country seems to be gathering.I think it's quite late from Japan view.
