Will Xi Jinping's reform and opening-up policy continue to be revised in his third term? - There is no change in his ambition to unify Taiwan.
2022-10-29
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Xi Jinping's third term begins
With the end of the Communist Party Congress and the start of Xi Jinping's third term, various reports have been made. Taken as a whole, it seems that the direction of revision of the reform and opening-up policy since Deng Xiaoping has been indicated. The results of Xi Jinping's economic policies are unclear in every sense, but it is clear that China's economy has grown due to the reform and opening-up path initiated by Deng Xiaoping, the partial introduction of market economic theory, and U.S.-China relations. Although Xi Jinping does not explicitly criticize these, what he is doing appears to be aiming for a return to the old style of Chinese socialism.
Will the reform and opening-up policy continue to be revised?
Although this is a country where individuals cannot own real estate, laws that allow individuals to buy and sell rented real estate are restricting growing real estate companies and forcing them into bankruptcy, and reining in the heads of growing companies like Alibaba. Does Xi Jinping think that these economic elements are a threat to China's socialist forces that were born on the path of reform and opening up? I have to say that his sense of being a threat is correct. This is because a liberal economy will destroy the socialist system.
Free industrial investment is essential for industrial growth
In order for the economy to continue to grow, we must ensure as much freedom as possible. There are limits to simply investing in certain industries that the country has chosen as part of its national policy. A process in which these industrial investments are opened up to the private sector, private banks are free to make industrial investments, and private companies are free to commercialize services that have never existed before is an essential condition.
What is necessary to continue economic growth
Various freedoms are essential for this, including freedom of speech, freedom of thought and belief, and academic freedom. This creates new social norms and new ways of living, which in turn leads to the creation of new products and services. Plants have a chance to flourish when they grow freely as intended.
No change in ambition to annex Taiwan
Critics say that Xi Jinping has chosen stability over growth. What is worrisome, however, is that there has been no change to the ambition to unify Taiwan. Such restorationists are likely to advocate nationalism and wage wars of aggression. You can imagine this by looking at the current President Putin.
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China's expansion policy is a historical necessity - Japan is the only neighboring country that did not listen.
Japan is probably the only East Asian country that has been not under Chinese control.Prince Shotoku's personal letter, "The Emperor of the rising Sun send a letter to you who is Emperor of the sun set ". declared that Japan was not a subordinate country to China.The Huns, Sun Fei, Khitan, Yeojin, Manchuria, and Mongolia were a threat to the Han nationality, and the era of the 16th Kingdom of the Five Kingdoms was a time when many ethnic groups owned the country.The Sunbae people established the Sui and Tang dynasties, the Nujin and the Manchurians established the Qing dynasties during the King Jin dynasties.
Originally, China was conscious of the northern and western continents.In order to guard against foreign invasion, the capital was relocated from Xi'an to Beijing and the Great Wall was built.The Korean Peninsula has not shown its willingness to invade China.Although it was a subordinate country, it maintained its ethnic area as a country.Unlike nomads in the northern part of the peninsula, they settled down.Due to the small area of flat land and the lack of agricultural technology, the land is poor and the number of slaves is large.When the nomadic people eat up, they just move to the next place.At the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics, the video of foreigners praising China was the essence of China, and as a result of conquest, China now exists.
The identity of China itself in history was to conquest Asia.
Mongolia, which unified the northern peoples in the past, invaded China and established a Yuan dynasties.This is the time when China's expansionary policy is the most important.To the north, the Duchy of Novgorod and other major Russian states were under control, and to the west, Poland was attacked three times.As a result, Poland became a ruined country, although it originally withdrew its troops.During this period, the Goryeo dynasties collapsed on the Korean Peninsula and returned to their original rule.
Aggression to Japan was carried out as part of Yuan's expansionary policy.As a result, the Yuan army was destroyed and Japan maintained its independence after two attacks.Historically, China has a strong belief that Asian countries are under Chinese rule.This is because China was unified by conquering Asia.Only Japan is different.China has never beaten Japan in history.
Japan is a rare country that repelled this during China's expansion and defended its independence against Western colonialism.
China's strategy for archipelago warfare.upside - down map reveals one's ambition to enter the Pacific Ocean
This is a map of the archipelago line from China.From China's point of view, the First Archipelago Line is designed to contain China in the ocean.The presence of American troops in Okinawa is also an important point.China cannot break through the line without the understanding of other countries, and on the contrary, it is said that U.S. nuclear submarines can easily cross the first archipelago line into Chinese territorial waters.
Now China is trying to make all the inside of the First Archipelago Line belong to China.That's Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, and the Nansha Islands .The second archipelago line runs all the way to Guam.In recent years, many Chinese ships have been seen in Japan's Ogasawara Islands.The Ogasawara Islands are located almost on the second archipelago line from the Japanese archipelago to Guam.
The Third Archipelago Line leads to Hawaii .The U.S. military has already sealed China close to China, but China aims to acquire Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands, reach the second and third islands, and eventually acquire Hawaii.If China takes over Hawaii, it will be able to attack the U.S. mainland based there.
If Taiwan is recognized by the state and Japan and Taiwan are included in the alliance, the South China Sea will be covered from the north, while China will not be able to enter the Pacific Ocean.In other words, the QUAD and Taiwan policies advocated by former Prime Minister Abe are correct .In QUAD, it would be even stronger if the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam could be introduced from Australia and India across the sea.Collaboration between Japan, the United States and Taiwan will also be able to function as part of this.
Don't let China go to the Pacific Ocean.Japan is in danger of Chinese ships and submarines from all directions.
Will Ethiopia's default be the end of African investment? Debt trap derived from One Belt, One Road.
China's One Belt, One Road initiative is set to go even further down the road after Africa's Ethiopia defaulted on the 2nd, unable to pay interest on its debt due in December. The countries circled on the map in the image are the countries where China is primarily investing. Ethiopia, which defaulted this time, is marked in red. One Belt, One Road is a route south to Italy in Europe, but Italy has announced its withdrawal from One Belt, One Road. This is the departure of the western base. Where is Kitaji's base? It is now Kiiv, the capital of Ukraine, which is currently at war.
Yellow countries are those with excessive debt to China. Includes Sudan and Somalia. These are the countries along the Suez Sea, including Ethiopia, which follow the Suez Canal, and China was trying to gain control of the sea route to the Mediterranean Sea. The rationale is simple: once the One Belt, One Road project starts, we can make a lot of money, so why not borrow money and prepare?
South Africa has the highest GDP among African economies, and it can be seen that the countries on the land route to South Africa are also trying to keep it in check. Countries other than the ones circled account for 36.9% of China's investments in Africa, so it is spreading money to almost all countries. The purpose is to buy votes from the United Nations. African countries account for approximately 28.5% of the votes in the United Nations. This is what is behind China and the West, dismissing it as a minority opinion.
This is actually related to the Taiwan Strait issue. Mainly African countries support China's "one China principle." Africa does not want to get into trouble with its creditor country, China, over a faraway island with which they do not have any exchanges.
If the countries along the Suez Sea default, the Belt and Road initiative will end for Africa.
China's biggest weakness is its vast territory - We are dispersed - What is the biggest advantage of QUAD?
Advantages of the Japan-Soviet Non-Aggression Treaty
China continues to acquire underdeveloped countries
Japan at its limit along the first island chain
Make the most of the country's large land area
The biggest weakness is that the country is large
Threat to China is a deterrent
The Japan-Soviet non-aggression pact during World War II had benefits for both sides. The Soviet Union's weakness was its vast territory. If the Japanese army invaded from the east while fighting the Nazis in the west, the Soviet army would have no choice but to disperse and would have no choice. After the Nazis surrendered on May 7, the Soviet Union entered the war against Japan.
The image above shows China's archipelago strategy and its maritime route to Pakistan, known as the String of Pearls. Currently, the Spratly Islands are under control, Sri Lanka's Hampantota port has been leased to China for 99 years, and, strangely enough, a coup d'etat occurred in Myanmar and China has secured access to the Bay of Bengal by land. The Solomon Islands government has been taken over and has signed a security agreement with China, refusing to accept foreign naval vessels. It's just a stone's throw from Australia.
Japan is currently debating the defense of its first island chain. As long as Japan and Taiwan are protected, that's fine. That may be the correct answer in terms of national defense, but if China considers it difficult to capture the first island chain, it will simply put it off until later and steadily advance its maritime strategy to the west. The Chinese Communist Party gains power each time it acquires concessions, and it is unable to stop the relative increase in threats to Japan's national defense.
In other words, China is making the most of its vast territory and expanding its reach into surrounding areas. Will the countries threatened by China defend themselves with their own strength? In other words, the enemy is a mass of 14 billion people, and we are unaware that they are scattered.
The important point about QUAD, which was proposed by former Prime Minister Abe, is that it draws India in. If China and India clash in Kashmir, communist forces will disperse to the west. Military power is nothing more than a total number, and some people compare numbers and say things like that, but in this case it is meaningless. Could troops in Sichuan province participate in the invasion of Taiwan? China's biggest weakness is its vast territory.
China's maritime expansion is intended to be a game changer for the world. Simply defending the first island chain in order to counter this would be a completely different level of thinking. The theory of dividing China will only be effective on a scale that confronts China's global expansion. For China, the absolute threat of ``If you don't act, I'll surround you and tear you apart'' is itself a deterrent.
Korea has the largest ODA per population.China Appreciates Japan's Economic Aid
According to Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ODA to China totaled about 3.9 trillion yen from 1979 to 2016.More than 60% of China's foreign aid is from Japan.Shanghai Pudong International Airport, Beijing Capital International Airport, Lanzhou, Wuhan, and Xi'an airports were also built with Japanese aid.In addition, 5,200 kilometers of railways, Beijing sewage treatment plants, Sino-Japanese Friendship Hospital, Beijing Subway, Chongqing Railway, and major ports have been built and expanded.
Since the 2000s, JICA has been training more than 15,000 managers and HIDA has been training more than 22,000.Former General Secretary Deng Xiaoping and former General Secretary Hu Jintao officially thanked each other.Recently, Deputy Spokesman Hua Chunying thanked Japan, saying, "Japan's ODA has contributed greatly to China's reform and opening-up and economic development," adding, "We will discuss new cooperative relations with Japan."
Although there are territorial issues in Sino-Japanese relations, the Chinese government officially acknowledges that Japan has contributed greatly to China's development.
The amount of ODA to South Korea is 650.2 billion yen, but the total value of $500 million, including free financial cooperation and private cooperation, is said to be 2-3 trillion yen.Compared to China, South Korea has the most aid in terms of ODA costs per population.
Japan apologized to South Korea several times during the annexation of South Korea and Japan, but South Korea did not remember.I don't think Japan remembers being thanked by South Korea, but this is more true.On the contrary, after the end of ODA program for South Korea in 1990, the problem of recruiting workers and Japanese Military comfort woman grew.Is it just my imagination that they seem to have started after end of ODA.
Since the end of ODA to South Korea, the anti-Japanese movement in South Korea has become popular.Is this a coincidence?
