Will Xi Jinping's reform and opening-up policy continue to be revised in his third term? - There is no change in his ambition to unify Taiwan.
2022-10-29
Category:China
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Xi Jinping's third term begins
With the end of the Communist Party Congress and the start of Xi Jinping's third term, various reports have been made. Taken as a whole, it seems that the direction of revision of the reform and opening-up policy since Deng Xiaoping has been indicated. The results of Xi Jinping's economic policies are unclear in every sense, but it is clear that China's economy has grown due to the reform and opening-up path initiated by Deng Xiaoping, the partial introduction of market economic theory, and U.S.-China relations. Although Xi Jinping does not explicitly criticize these, what he is doing appears to be aiming for a return to the old style of Chinese socialism.
Will the reform and opening-up policy continue to be revised?
Although this is a country where individuals cannot own real estate, laws that allow individuals to buy and sell rented real estate are restricting growing real estate companies and forcing them into bankruptcy, and reining in the heads of growing companies like Alibaba. Does Xi Jinping think that these economic elements are a threat to China's socialist forces that were born on the path of reform and opening up? I have to say that his sense of being a threat is correct. This is because a liberal economy will destroy the socialist system.
Free industrial investment is essential for industrial growth
In order for the economy to continue to grow, we must ensure as much freedom as possible. There are limits to simply investing in certain industries that the country has chosen as part of its national policy. A process in which these industrial investments are opened up to the private sector, private banks are free to make industrial investments, and private companies are free to commercialize services that have never existed before is an essential condition.
What is necessary to continue economic growth
Various freedoms are essential for this, including freedom of speech, freedom of thought and belief, and academic freedom. This creates new social norms and new ways of living, which in turn leads to the creation of new products and services. Plants have a chance to flourish when they grow freely as intended.
No change in ambition to annex Taiwan
Critics say that Xi Jinping has chosen stability over growth. What is worrisome, however, is that there has been no change to the ambition to unify Taiwan. Such restorationists are likely to advocate nationalism and wage wars of aggression. You can imagine this by looking at the current President Putin.
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The Taiwanese emergency is a Senkaku emergency - Chinese military lieutenant general who did not deny the argument shifts responsibility by saying that it is up to Taiwan.
By the 9th, He Lei, former vice president (lieutenant general) of the Academy of Military Sciences, a Chinese military think tank, gave an exclusive interview to Kyodo News and clarified that he ``doesn't want war, but I'm not afraid of it'' regarding the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture. Personally, I am concerned about this statement by the lieutenant general.When I asked him about the possibility of unifying Taiwan and seizing the Senkakus at the same time based on China's claim that the Senkakus are part of the "Taiwan Province," he replied, "It is not logical. If you do that, then yes,” he said without denying it.
Taiwan was the first to claim sovereignty over Uotsuri Island. Since Taiwan was in June 1971 and China was in September of the same year, it appears that China hastily raised its hand to the international community three months later. During this period, a dispute over the representative government was being held at the United Nations, and the United Nations Resolution on Albania was adopted in October 1971, which established the People's Republic of China as the representative government of China. In response to this, Japan established diplomatic relations with China in 1972, but it is said that there was an agreement to shelve the issue of the Senkaku Islands so that it would not become an issue by not making it an issue.
The graph shown shows the number of territorial sea violations by China, and it can be seen that there were almost no cases up until 2012. It began with the nationalization of the Senkaku Islands by the Noda administration in September 2012. In other words, China's reasoning is that Japan has made an issue that had been shelved. They argue that for this reason, China will also openly make territorial claims. Before that, it is Japanese territory in the first place.
The circumstances surrounding this nationalization by the Noda administration were so pathetic that they released the captain of a Chinese fishing boat that rammed the Japan Coast Guard for unknown reasons, and were unable to withstand public criticism. At the time, Governor Tanigaki argued that if he was going to be released, he should have just deported him on the spot instead of arresting him in the first place.
A statement by a lieutenant general from a Chinese military think tank places the Senkakus as Taiwan's responsibility. If the one country, two systems principle is followed, Senkaku will become Taiwan. Xi Jinping has repeatedly stated that Taiwan's independence is a trigger for an invasion of Taiwan.
The Taiwan emergency included the Senkaku issue within the Japan emergency, and there were many questions about how the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty would be activated if China publicly stated that it would maintain navigation through the Taiwan Strait and there was no attack on the Senkaku Islands. This time, China has publicly stated that the Senkaku Islands are part of it. In other words, the only objective is the small island of Senkaku, which is part of Taiwanese territory, and the question is whether the United States will participate in the war just for this island.
Now that China has made it clear that it will extend its reach to the Senkaku Islands in the event of a Taiwanese emergency, how will the Japanese government respond? Would you go and rent even 10 pandas? My thinking is almost the same as that student who yelled at the SEALDs meeting that I would drink alcohol and become better friends with him.
What do the People's Liberation Army think of U.S. aircraft carriers and landing attack ships?
Since the inauguration of the Biden administration, the U.S. has not only put pressure on China to restrict support for Chinese companies, but has also frequently dispatched military aircraft and warships to China to provoke them.
According to the Global Times, the U.S. has deployed the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson, the landing attack ship Esax, and the U.S. landing attack ship U.S.aircraft carriers Lincoln and Reagan.The Ohio-class strategic nuclear submarine Nevada also made an unusual appearance at a U.S. naval base in Guam.
It is unusual for the U.S. to deploy so much military force around China, giving the impression of dignity.Professor Wei Jung-woo of the Center for American Research at Fudan University said in an interview, "The U.S. is sending strategic nuclear submarines and aircraft carrier warships to the Indo-Pacific region to demonstrate its "power" and exercise military deterrence."
The U.S. is not the only military power in the world, but the U.S. is wrong in targeting China.Defense Ministry spokesman Oh Gyeom explained at a regular briefing on January 27 that the PLA's military training in 2022, emphasizing the need to strengthen military training and strengthen enemy suppression training and maintain full-time standby.We will accelerate the integration of training and practice so that we can fight at any time."
The behind-the-scenes stories of "the front line of military struggle" and "fight the enemy and train " are clear.The Global Times quoted an analyst as saying, "There have been experts so far."Despite the fact that the PLA took advantage of the opportunity to train against foreign troops, many netizens still regard it as "respectful."However, it has been confirmed that the Liberation Army is "using foreign troops to train."The U.S. did not expect such provocations around China to be the best training partner for the Liberation Army.This is to make up for the lack of combat experience.The U.S. is really shooting itself in the leg.
It seems that the U.S. military is a practical training partner for the People's Liberation Army's lack of practical experience.I don't understand what it means.
China's reaction to Taiwan's presidential election remains unchanged - authoritarian country claims it does not reflect the will of the people.
Looking at the tone of Chinese commentary, there are some that simply report the facts about the results of the Taiwanese election, and some that express dissatisfaction with Japan's congratulations to the winner of the Taiwanese presidential election, but overall they are not widely covered. The reason I don't think he is there is probably because Xi Jinping's state of mind is immeasurable. Xinhua News Agency introduced statements by Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, which is in charge of Taiwan policy in China.
“The results of these two elections in Taiwan show that the Democratic Progressive Party does not represent mainstream public opinion in Taiwan.Taiwan is China's Taiwan.This election reflects the basic pattern of cross-strait relations. The direction of development cannot be changed, the compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait cannot change the common desire to become closer and closer, and the general tendency for the motherland to ultimately maintain relations between the two countries You can't stop it. It will be unified, and it will inevitably be unified."
"Our position on resolving the Taiwan issue and achieving national reunification is consistent and our will is unwavering. We will firmly uphold the 1992 Consensus, which embodies the principle of one China. , resolutely opposes secessionist actions for "Taiwan independence" and interference by outside forces, and cooperates with relevant Taiwanese political parties, organizations, and people from all walks of life to promote mutual exchange. - Deepen cross-Strait exchanges and cooperation, deepen cross-Strait integrated development, jointly promote Chinese culture, promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations, and promote the great cause of national reunification. ”
This is the same spokesperson who said last year that ``Taiwan independence would mean war.'' Judging from this statement, the contents of this time are just long-winded, there is no change, and there is nothing new. Both one tone and two tone look lowered. Even if you claim that you do not represent mainstream public opinion, isn't your country a dictatorship with no regard for public opinion or the will of the people? President Xi Jinping was probably not chosen by the will of the people. China seems unable to hide its turmoil.
Can China's encirclement aim to divide China? - Cut off tax revenue for the increasingly obese Chinese Communist Party.
What is the population of China
Revival of the issue of national self-determination
Can China's autonomous regions become independent
China creates its own concept of ethnicity and promotes Hanization policy
The Uighur issue spreads to other autonomous regions
China became a Jain nation
China's weakness is its large territory
If Japan, the US, and Europe do not create a network of encirclement of China and seal it off, it will be a disaster
China is said to have a population of 1.4 billion, but the actual population is around 90 million. 90 million people is the number of Communist Party members. Isn't it possible to think of the other 1.3 billion people as workers ruled by the Chinese Communist Party, rather than citizens, assuming democratic values?
The definition of the right to national self-determination has once again become a theme. Russia's invasion of Ukraine also uses this idea as a shield. Going back in time, the Nazis also began invading neighboring countries under the pretext of protecting Germans. On the other hand, it also functioned as the right of Asian countries to become independent from colonial rule, and under international law, independence from colonial rule was an exercise of the legitimate right to self-determination.
China has various autonomous regions, all of which are inhabited by different ethnic groups. Uighur, Tibet, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, etc. During a question session in the Japanese Diet about the right to self-determination for the Uyghur Autonomous Region, former Prime Minister Koizumi was ambiguous as to whether the right to self-determination advocated by the United Nations included the right to independence (within a non-colonial state). It cites examples such as the UN's adoption of Palestine's right to independence.
In other words, since this is what China is afraid of, it is eager to implement the Hanification policy. Han people have no relation to bloodline, and have established their own ethnic definition that if you accept Chinese style, culture, and customs, you are a Han ethnic group. On top of that, it is said that they are forcibly brainwashing the Uyghurs, calling them educational facilities.
If the Uighurs were to take up arms and exercise their right to self-determination and start a war of independence, international public opinion would once again be influenced by the United Nations' definition of the right to self-determination. Depending on the outcome, there is a strong possibility that this will spread to Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Zhuang, and other areas. If you add the population of China's autonomous regions, it will be about 100 million people. However, this ethnic area is also an important resource area for China. What would happen if they left? Taiwan is difficult here. It is difficult to say that Taiwan is a separate ethnic group from China.
At the same time, China is causing border problems in all directions. You can do whatever you want in the Spratly Islands. However, the other side of the coin is that China is completely surrounded by surrounding countries and regions that are frustrated with the Chinese Communist Party. The only reason why the surrounding areas are in suspense is because of the threat of China's 1.4 billion people. No. China has 90 million people. What would happen if you thought about it?.
China's military would be weakened if it was dispersed over a wide area. What would happen if other surrounding areas also started border disputes in the event of a Taiwanese emergency? Taiwan is no fun if it only defends Taiwan. Taiwan should take control of Fujian Province. This is to create a buffer zone. The Spratly Islands should be controlled together with the Philippines and Vietnam. Then, they should conquer Yunnan Province and liberate the Zhuang Autonomous Region. This is to create a buffer zone. India will control Kashmir. And we should take control of Sichuan Province. What will happen if Uighurs and Tibet go into a war of independence?
I would like Japan to work with the United States to engage in strategic diplomacy to seriously create a network of encirclement of China. The Chinese Communist Party is a monster that controls 1.3 billion people and siphons off tax revenue. The country receives 13 times more tax revenue than a country with 100 million people and 26 times more than a country with 50 million people, making it bloated. Where in the world is there a political party with 90 million people?
They simply refer to their area of control as a nation; they call it internal affairs. If a conflict were to start in all directions in the surrounding areas, the 1.3 billion people would have no independence in the first place and would be scattered and rendered powerless. The only way to seal this monster away is to divide the country and cut off tax revenue.
Will Ethiopia's default be the end of African investment? Debt trap derived from One Belt, One Road.
China's One Belt, One Road initiative is set to go even further down the road after Africa's Ethiopia defaulted on the 2nd, unable to pay interest on its debt due in December. The countries circled on the map in the image are the countries where China is primarily investing. Ethiopia, which defaulted this time, is marked in red. One Belt, One Road is a route south to Italy in Europe, but Italy has announced its withdrawal from One Belt, One Road. This is the departure of the western base. Where is Kitaji's base? It is now Kiiv, the capital of Ukraine, which is currently at war.
Yellow countries are those with excessive debt to China. Includes Sudan and Somalia. These are the countries along the Suez Sea, including Ethiopia, which follow the Suez Canal, and China was trying to gain control of the sea route to the Mediterranean Sea. The rationale is simple: once the One Belt, One Road project starts, we can make a lot of money, so why not borrow money and prepare?
South Africa has the highest GDP among African economies, and it can be seen that the countries on the land route to South Africa are also trying to keep it in check. Countries other than the ones circled account for 36.9% of China's investments in Africa, so it is spreading money to almost all countries. The purpose is to buy votes from the United Nations. African countries account for approximately 28.5% of the votes in the United Nations. This is what is behind China and the West, dismissing it as a minority opinion.
This is actually related to the Taiwan Strait issue. Mainly African countries support China's "one China principle." Africa does not want to get into trouble with its creditor country, China, over a faraway island with which they do not have any exchanges.
If the countries along the Suez Sea default, the Belt and Road initiative will end for Africa.