Will Ethiopia's default be the end of African investment? Debt trap derived from One Belt, One Road.
2024-01-13
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ethiopian default
China's One Belt, One Road initiative is set to go even further down the road after Africa's Ethiopia defaulted on the 2nd, unable to pay interest on its debt due in December. The countries circled on the map in the image are the countries where China is primarily investing. Ethiopia, which defaulted this time, is marked in red. One Belt, One Road is a route south to Italy in Europe, but Italy has announced its withdrawal from One Belt, One Road. This is the departure of the western base. Where is Kitaji's base? It is now Kiiv, the capital of Ukraine, which is currently at war.
One Belt, One Road debt trap
Yellow countries are those with excessive debt to China. Includes Sudan and Somalia. These are the countries along the Suez Sea, including Ethiopia, which follow the Suez Canal, and China was trying to gain control of the sea route to the Mediterranean Sea. The rationale is simple: once the One Belt, One Road project starts, we can make a lot of money, so why not borrow money and prepare?
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The acquisition of African countries by the world's underground financial institution AIIB is China's national strategy.
AIIB is the world's black finance. Lending money to developing countries to realize OBOR. They provide funds that cannot be repaid, and when they are unable to repay, they seize the country's ports and other facilities. If OBOR is realized, the countries in the area will become rich. That's why it's better to borrow more and more money.
With this financing, China bought up votes in the United Nations, including African countries.
Originally, the African continent was divided into two colonies, British and French, and the British Commonwealth and French Community held the vote in the United Nations, but what is the situation like now? OBOR is China's national takeover strategy.
Communism views capitalists and managers as enemies. Workers become subordinate to capital, and capitalists who acquire large amounts of capital become figures that shake up the nation. Therefore, Chinese companies are controlled by the state as state-owned or semi-state-owned.
In modern China, the state is the capitalist. They invest in domestic and international development in the name of investing in the region and the nation.
If you look at the fact that they are subjugating developing countries to capital, they are essentially no different from the capitalists they see as their enemies.
In fact, it's even worse.
road to south africa
South Africa has the highest GDP among African economies, and it can be seen that the countries on the land route to South Africa are also trying to keep it in check. Countries other than the ones circled account for 36.9% of China's investments in Africa, so it is spreading money to almost all countries. The purpose is to buy votes from the United Nations. African countries account for approximately 28.5% of the votes in the United Nations. This is what is behind China and the West, dismissing it as a minority opinion.
Related to the Taiwan Strait
This is actually related to the Taiwan Strait issue. Mainly African countries support China's "one China principle." Africa does not want to get into trouble with its creditor country, China, over a faraway island with which they do not have any exchanges.
If the countries along the Suez Sea default, the Belt and Road initiative will end for Africa.
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Will Xi Jinping's reform and opening-up policy continue to be revised in his third term? - There is no change in his ambition to unify Taiwan.
Xi Jinping's third term begins
Will the reform and opening-up policy continue to be revised?
Free industrial investment is essential for industrial growth
What is necessary to continue economic growth
No change in ambition to annex Taiwan
With the end of the Communist Party Congress and the start of Xi Jinping's third term, various reports have been made. Taken as a whole, it seems that the direction of revision of the reform and opening-up policy since Deng Xiaoping has been indicated. The results of Xi Jinping's economic policies are unclear in every sense, but it is clear that China's economy has grown due to the reform and opening-up path initiated by Deng Xiaoping, the partial introduction of market economic theory, and U.S.-China relations. Although Xi Jinping does not explicitly criticize these, what he is doing appears to be aiming for a return to the old style of Chinese socialism.
Although this is a country where individuals cannot own real estate, laws that allow individuals to buy and sell rented real estate are restricting growing real estate companies and forcing them into bankruptcy, and reining in the heads of growing companies like Alibaba. Does Xi Jinping think that these economic elements are a threat to China's socialist forces that were born on the path of reform and opening up? I have to say that his sense of being a threat is correct. This is because a liberal economy will destroy the socialist system.
In order for the economy to continue to grow, we must ensure as much freedom as possible. There are limits to simply investing in certain industries that the country has chosen as part of its national policy. A process in which these industrial investments are opened up to the private sector, private banks are free to make industrial investments, and private companies are free to commercialize services that have never existed before is an essential condition.
Various freedoms are essential for this, including freedom of speech, freedom of thought and belief, and academic freedom. This creates new social norms and new ways of living, which in turn leads to the creation of new products and services. Plants have a chance to flourish when they grow freely as intended.
Critics say that Xi Jinping has chosen stability over growth. What is worrisome, however, is that there has been no change to the ambition to unify Taiwan. Such restorationists are likely to advocate nationalism and wage wars of aggression. You can imagine this by looking at the current President Putin.
The Last Emperor who appeared at the Tokyo Trials The last emperor of the Qing Dynasty and the first emperor of Manchukuo looked at the times.
The Last Emperor appeared at the Tokyo Trial
The Xinhai Revolution was a Chinese revolution supported by Japan
A revolution that had no choice but to join forces with the old dynasty forces
Russia's hand extended to the continent and peninsula
The idea of harmony between the five tribes of Manchukuo
The last emperor of the Qing Dynasty was Aixinjueluo Puyi. He was also called the Last Emperor and appeared at the Tokyo Trials. There, in front of GHQ, he praised Sun Yat-sen's Xinhai Revolution as an innovative move for China, and said that the Qing bureaucracies at the time were deeply corrupt.
The Xinhai Revolution was a Sino-Japanese joint revolution that was supported by important Japanese figures to modernize China under the rule of the former dynasty. Sun Yat-sen is Sun Yat-sen. Nakayama is a Japanese name, and it was the name of his time in exile in Japan. Puyi understood this very well.
Manchuria was a territory of the Qing Dynasty that Russia came to take over. The Qing Dynasty was a Chinese dynasty founded by the Manchu people, that is, by Puyi's ancestors.
The Xinhai Revolution had to rely on Yuan Shikai's help to suppress the Beiyang warlords, and it cannot be denied that it was a half-hearted revolution, so Puyi's conditions of residence in the Forbidden City were revoked and he was exiled.
The conflict between Russia's interests in Manchuria and the conflict on the Korean Peninsula progressed simultaneously. Russia thought it would be a good idea to colonize China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan in the same way as Northeast Asian nations.
The Russo-Japanese War not only stopped the Russian colonization of the Korean Peninsula, but also eliminated Russian interests from Manchuria and led to the establishment of Manchukuo. Puyi then became the first emperor of Manchukuo.
Puyi, a Manchurian, was expelled from the Forbidden City and ascended the throne again in his homeland. Many workers came and went from the Korean peninsula to Manchuria, and many people from the Korean peninsula immigrated to cultivate the fertile land of Manchuria. Manchukuo's spirit of ``Five Tribes Harmony'' is an ideal that was built on the reality that these ethnic groups coexist: Japan, Korea, Manchuria, Mongolia, and the Han Chinese.
It is said that Japan was carrying out plunder and genocide on the Korean Peninsula. It's strange.
The Taiwanese emergency is a Senkaku emergency - Chinese military lieutenant general who did not deny the argument shifts responsibility by saying that it is up to Taiwan.
By the 9th, He Lei, former vice president (lieutenant general) of the Academy of Military Sciences, a Chinese military think tank, gave an exclusive interview to Kyodo News and clarified that he ``doesn't want war, but I'm not afraid of it'' regarding the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture. Personally, I am concerned about this statement by the lieutenant general.When I asked him about the possibility of unifying Taiwan and seizing the Senkakus at the same time based on China's claim that the Senkakus are part of the "Taiwan Province," he replied, "It is not logical. If you do that, then yes,” he said without denying it.
Taiwan was the first to claim sovereignty over Uotsuri Island. Since Taiwan was in June 1971 and China was in September of the same year, it appears that China hastily raised its hand to the international community three months later. During this period, a dispute over the representative government was being held at the United Nations, and the United Nations Resolution on Albania was adopted in October 1971, which established the People's Republic of China as the representative government of China. In response to this, Japan established diplomatic relations with China in 1972, but it is said that there was an agreement to shelve the issue of the Senkaku Islands so that it would not become an issue by not making it an issue.
The graph shown shows the number of territorial sea violations by China, and it can be seen that there were almost no cases up until 2012. It began with the nationalization of the Senkaku Islands by the Noda administration in September 2012. In other words, China's reasoning is that Japan has made an issue that had been shelved. They argue that for this reason, China will also openly make territorial claims. Before that, it is Japanese territory in the first place.
The circumstances surrounding this nationalization by the Noda administration were so pathetic that they released the captain of a Chinese fishing boat that rammed the Japan Coast Guard for unknown reasons, and were unable to withstand public criticism. At the time, Governor Tanigaki argued that if he was going to be released, he should have just deported him on the spot instead of arresting him in the first place.
A statement by a lieutenant general from a Chinese military think tank places the Senkakus as Taiwan's responsibility. If the one country, two systems principle is followed, Senkaku will become Taiwan. Xi Jinping has repeatedly stated that Taiwan's independence is a trigger for an invasion of Taiwan.
The Taiwan emergency included the Senkaku issue within the Japan emergency, and there were many questions about how the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty would be activated if China publicly stated that it would maintain navigation through the Taiwan Strait and there was no attack on the Senkaku Islands. This time, China has publicly stated that the Senkaku Islands are part of it. In other words, the only objective is the small island of Senkaku, which is part of Taiwanese territory, and the question is whether the United States will participate in the war just for this island.
Now that China has made it clear that it will extend its reach to the Senkaku Islands in the event of a Taiwanese emergency, how will the Japanese government respond? Would you go and rent even 10 pandas? My thinking is almost the same as that student who yelled at the SEALDs meeting that I would drink alcohol and become better friends with him.
China's expansion policy is a historical necessity - Japan is the only neighboring country that did not listen.
Japan is probably the only East Asian country that has been not under Chinese control.Prince Shotoku's personal letter, "The Emperor of the rising Sun send a letter to you who is Emperor of the sun set ". declared that Japan was not a subordinate country to China.The Huns, Sun Fei, Khitan, Yeojin, Manchuria, and Mongolia were a threat to the Han nationality, and the era of the 16th Kingdom of the Five Kingdoms was a time when many ethnic groups owned the country.The Sunbae people established the Sui and Tang dynasties, the Nujin and the Manchurians established the Qing dynasties during the King Jin dynasties.
Originally, China was conscious of the northern and western continents.In order to guard against foreign invasion, the capital was relocated from Xi'an to Beijing and the Great Wall was built.The Korean Peninsula has not shown its willingness to invade China.Although it was a subordinate country, it maintained its ethnic area as a country.Unlike nomads in the northern part of the peninsula, they settled down.Due to the small area of flat land and the lack of agricultural technology, the land is poor and the number of slaves is large.When the nomadic people eat up, they just move to the next place.At the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics, the video of foreigners praising China was the essence of China, and as a result of conquest, China now exists.
The identity of China itself in history was to conquest Asia.
Mongolia, which unified the northern peoples in the past, invaded China and established a Yuan dynasties.This is the time when China's expansionary policy is the most important.To the north, the Duchy of Novgorod and other major Russian states were under control, and to the west, Poland was attacked three times.As a result, Poland became a ruined country, although it originally withdrew its troops.During this period, the Goryeo dynasties collapsed on the Korean Peninsula and returned to their original rule.
Aggression to Japan was carried out as part of Yuan's expansionary policy.As a result, the Yuan army was destroyed and Japan maintained its independence after two attacks.Historically, China has a strong belief that Asian countries are under Chinese rule.This is because China was unified by conquering Asia.Only Japan is different.China has never beaten Japan in history.
Japan is a rare country that repelled this during China's expansion and defended its independence against Western colonialism.
What China wants to get is more than necessary.Taiwan called them as
Chinese culture is one where extravagance is a virtue. It is hospitality to provide more food than you can eat, and leaving some leftover food means that you are full, and conversely, eating all of it means that you didn't have enough food, which is a cultural difference. I'm surprised.
When Japan withdrew from the war and the Republic of China (KMT) came to Taiwan, it was expressed as ``the dogs left and the pigs came.'' The meaning is that dogs (in Japan) are noisy but protect the house. It means that the pig (KMT) will only eat up. It is said that Taiwanese received Japanese education during the Japanese colonial period, and were taught the concepts of moderation, restraint, and patience. This brought order to Taiwanese society and reduced crime. For Taiwanese people, the rule by the Chinese Nationalist Party must have seemed too contrasting.
When I was a student, I worked part-time at a karaoke pub in Shibuya, and Mr. Li, a Chinese man working in the kitchen, was often scolded by the manager for eating food from the kitchen. The rule for the food provided by the store was that you could eat as much white rice as you wanted, but Mr. Lee was eating a pile of white rice on a platter similar to curry rice.
He ended up secretly eating an apple in the bathroom, which got him fired. The reason for this was that apple cores clogged the toilet and caused a flood. At that time, China was still poor, and my Japanese part-time friend said that it was a pity to be fired because China was poor, but I thought that no matter how poor someone was, if they were full, they wouldn't eat any more.
The Chinese believe that there is no problem because pigs eat leftover food left over by humans, and humans then eat the pigs. In China, it is considered polite to leave much of a meal uneaten, which is why there is no sense of guilt. When China began economic growth, the problem of garbage became a problem. I remember that a large amount of leftover food became impossible to dispose of, and a female newscaster on a Chinese news program shouted, ``Even pigs can't eat any more garbage!'' I wonder if she is also making a mistake with this caster. Leftover food from restaurants in the city is not sent to pig farms.
What I'm trying to say is that in Chinese culture, you need more than you need to be satisfied. Satisfaction can only be achieved when you have all of them. This means that even in times of poverty, the idea of moderation and moderation did not develop as a culture. When I think about it, I get a chill down my spine as I wonder how much of what China currently wants to obtain.
What current China wants to gain from its expansion policy. It's not what you need, it's more than you need.
