Will Ethiopia's default be the end of African investment? Debt trap derived from One Belt, One Road.
2024-01-13
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ethiopian default
China's One Belt, One Road initiative is set to go even further down the road after Africa's Ethiopia defaulted on the ２nd, unable to pay interest on its debt due in December. The countries circled on the map in the image are the countries where China is primarily investing. Ethiopia, which defaulted this time, is marked in red. One Belt, One Road is a route south to Italy in Europe, but Italy has announced its withdrawal from One Belt, One Road. This is the departure of the western base. Where is Kitaji's base? It is now Kiiv, the capital of Ukraine, which is currently at war.
One Belt, One Road debt trap
Yellow countries are those with excessive debt to China. Includes Sudan and Somalia. These are the countries along the Suez Sea, including Ethiopia, which follow the Suez Canal, and China was trying to gain control of the sea route to the Mediterranean Sea. The rationale is simple: once the One Belt, One Road project starts, we can make a lot of money, so why not borrow money and prepare?
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The acquisition of African countries by the world's underground financial institution AIIB is China's national strategy.
AIIB is the world's black finance. Lending money to developing countries to realize OBOR. They provide funds that cannot be repaid, and when they are unable to repay, they seize the country's ports and other facilities. If OBOR is realized, the countries in the area will become rich. That's why it's better to borrow more and more money.
With this financing, China bought up votes in the United Nations, including African countries.
Originally, the African continent was divided into two colonies, British and French, and the British Commonwealth and French Community held the vote in the United Nations, but what is the situation like now? OBOR is China's national takeover strategy.
Communism views capitalists and managers as enemies. Workers become subordinate to capital, and capitalists who acquire large amounts of capital become figures that shake up the nation. Therefore, Chinese companies are controlled by the state as state-owned or semi-state-owned.
In modern China, the state is the capitalist. They invest in domestic and international development in the name of investing in the region and the nation.
If you look at the fact that they are subjugating developing countries to capital, they are essentially no different from the capitalists they see as their enemies.
In fact, it's even worse.
road to south africa
South Africa has the highest GDP among African economies, and it can be seen that the countries on the land route to South Africa are also trying to keep it in check. Countries other than the ones circled account for ３６.９% of China's investments in Africa, so it is spreading money to almost all countries. The purpose is to buy votes from the United Nations. African countries account for approximately ２８.５% of the votes in the United Nations. This is what is behind China and the West, dismissing it as a minority opinion.
Related to the Taiwan Strait
This is actually related to the Taiwan Strait issue. Mainly African countries support China's "one China principle." Africa does not want to get into trouble with its creditor country, China, over a faraway island with which they do not have any exchanges.
If the countries along the Suez Sea default, the Belt and Road initiative will end for Africa.
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China's biggest weakness is its vast territory - We are dispersed - What is the biggest advantage of QUAD?
Advantages of the Japan-Soviet Non-Aggression Treaty
China continues to acquire underdeveloped countries
Japan at its limit along the first island chain
Make the most of the country's large land area
The biggest weakness is that the country is large
Threat to China is a deterrent
The Japan-Soviet non-aggression pact during World War II had benefits for both sides. The Soviet Union's weakness was its vast territory. If the Japanese army invaded from the east while fighting the Nazis in the west, the Soviet army would have no choice but to disperse and would have no choice. After the Nazis surrendered on May 7, the Soviet Union entered the war against Japan.
The image above shows China's archipelago strategy and its maritime route to Pakistan, known as the String of Pearls. Currently, the Spratly Islands are under control, Sri Lanka's Hampantota port has been leased to China for 99 years, and, strangely enough, a coup d'etat occurred in Myanmar and China has secured access to the Bay of Bengal by land. The Solomon Islands government has been taken over and has signed a security agreement with China, refusing to accept foreign naval vessels. It's just a stone's throw from Australia.
Japan is currently debating the defense of its first island chain. As long as Japan and Taiwan are protected, that's fine. That may be the correct answer in terms of national defense, but if China considers it difficult to capture the first island chain, it will simply put it off until later and steadily advance its maritime strategy to the west. The Chinese Communist Party gains power each time it acquires concessions, and it is unable to stop the relative increase in threats to Japan's national defense.
In other words, China is making the most of its vast territory and expanding its reach into surrounding areas. Will the countries threatened by China defend themselves with their own strength? In other words, the enemy is a mass of 14 billion people, and we are unaware that they are scattered.
The important point about QUAD, which was proposed by former Prime Minister Abe, is that it draws India in. If China and India clash in Kashmir, communist forces will disperse to the west. Military power is nothing more than a total number, and some people compare numbers and say things like that, but in this case it is meaningless. Could troops in Sichuan province participate in the invasion of Taiwan? China's biggest weakness is its vast territory.
China's maritime expansion is intended to be a game changer for the world. Simply defending the first island chain in order to counter this would be a completely different level of thinking. The theory of dividing China will only be effective on a scale that confronts China's global expansion. For China, the absolute threat of ``If you don't act, I'll surround you and tear you apart'' is itself a deterrent.
Both state capitalism and communism have failed in China - Unemployment rate continues to increase.
The reason why it's funny that the number of unemployed people in China is increasing is because China is a socialist and communist country. Communism rejects capitalists and defines them as the root cause of social evil that exploits people. The state confiscates the produced goods. In other words, the state controls businesses and other things that produce social benefits. Even land is not private property. The state distributes the income generated from this. Therefore, the governments of communist countries have tremendous power. Because there is only the nation and the people.
Capitalism has a completely different structure. Based on a free economy, free competition produces people who drop out and become unemployed. To prevent this, we will reduce the unemployment rate by increasing new employment. To achieve this, it is necessary to promote industry and develop new fields. Viewed in this way, both communism and capitalism have one thing in common: the economic policies carried out by the state boil down to employment policies. Companies seek sales, but the nation seeks to secure employment for all its citizens.
In that sense, communism operates from a system design that does not inherently create unemployment, whereas capitalist countries, on the other hand, have a system design that creates unemployment, and fill it with economic growth and employment policies. That's what it means.
So why is there so many unemployed people in China? In capitalist countries, when the economy is in decline, the only way to reduce the unemployment rate is to foster industry and increase employment, but communist countries must have a system designed and operated in which the state forcibly distributes goods.
In other words, the original distribution is not working. Or, vested interests have increased and they cannot control it, and communism is no longer possible. And as a result of continuing something like state capitalism, all of these things are failing.
Four basic documents and four agreements between Japan and China - The difference between Japan - China diplomacy and Japan - Korea diplomacy is that Japan and Korea do not have accumulated diplomat
Four agreements between Japan and China signed with former Prime Minister Abe
Four basic documents during Japan and China
History of diplomacy since the restoration of diplomatic relations
The key to diplomacy amid difficult Japan-China relations
There are no accumulated assets in Japan-Korea relations
In response to the news of Prime Minister Abe's death, a Chinese spokesperson said that he had made a great contribution to the development of Japan-China relations. In 2012, the issue of the Senkaku Islands came to light and anti-Japanese demonstrations broke out, and Prime Minister Abe held a Japan-China summit meeting in APAC and reached an agreement on four points.
Four agreements between Japan and ChinaBoth sides will abide by the principles and spirit of the four basic documents between Japan and China, and They confirmed that they would continue to develop a mutually beneficial strategic relationship.
Both sides reached some consensus on the need to face history squarely, follow the spirit of looking toward the future, and overcome the political difficulties affecting bilateral relations.
Both sides recognize that they have different views on the recent tense situation in the waters of the East China Sea, including the Senkaku Islands, and through dialogue and consultation, prevent the situation from deteriorating and establish a crisis management mechanism. There was a consensus on the need to avoid unforeseen situations.
Both sides agreed to gradually resume political, diplomatic, and security dialogue by utilizing various multilateral and bilateral channels, and to strive to build a relationship of mutual political trust.
These are the four agreements that China often refers to. The four basic documents in item 1 are:
Four basic documents between Japan and China1972 Japan-China Joint Declaration1978 Japan-China Treaty of Peace and Friendship 1998 Japan-China Joint Declaration on Building a Partnership of Friendship and Cooperation for Peace and Development 2008 Japan-China Joint Statement on the Comprehensive Promotion of “Mutually Beneficial Relations”
means.
The first of the four agreements promised that both sides would abide by the treaties and agreements they had signed so far. This also means that Japan-China relations are based on four documents that Chinese spokesmen frequently comment on. Although China is a country with many problems internationally, it is said that China is principled, and this is where the diplomatic axis between Japan and China lies.
Japan-China relations and Japan-Korea relations have completely different positions and histories. However, the biggest difference is that since South Korea has scrapped all previous agreements, there are no diplomatic assets that Japan and South Korea have accumulated politically and diplomatically.
Both China and South Korea have recently become Asian countries that neither of them want to associate with, but their diplomatic relations have completely different histories.
China's reaction to Taiwan's presidential election remains unchanged - authoritarian country claims it does not reflect the will of the people.
Looking at the tone of Chinese commentary, there are some that simply report the facts about the results of the Taiwanese election, and some that express dissatisfaction with Japan's congratulations to the winner of the Taiwanese presidential election, but overall they are not widely covered. The reason I don't think he is there is probably because Xi Jinping's state of mind is immeasurable. Xinhua News Agency introduced statements by Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, which is in charge of Taiwan policy in China.
“The results of these two elections in Taiwan show that the Democratic Progressive Party does not represent mainstream public opinion in Taiwan.Taiwan is China's Taiwan.This election reflects the basic pattern of cross-strait relations. The direction of development cannot be changed, the compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait cannot change the common desire to become closer and closer, and the general tendency for the motherland to ultimately maintain relations between the two countries You can't stop it. It will be unified, and it will inevitably be unified."
"Our position on resolving the Taiwan issue and achieving national reunification is consistent and our will is unwavering. We will firmly uphold the 1992 Consensus, which embodies the principle of one China. , resolutely opposes secessionist actions for "Taiwan independence" and interference by outside forces, and cooperates with relevant Taiwanese political parties, organizations, and people from all walks of life to promote mutual exchange. - Deepen cross-Strait exchanges and cooperation, deepen cross-Strait integrated development, jointly promote Chinese culture, promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations, and promote the great cause of national reunification. ”
This is the same spokesperson who said last year that ``Taiwan independence would mean war.'' Judging from this statement, the contents of this time are just long-winded, there is no change, and there is nothing new. Both one tone and two tone look lowered. Even if you claim that you do not represent mainstream public opinion, isn't your country a dictatorship with no regard for public opinion or the will of the people? President Xi Jinping was probably not chosen by the will of the people. China seems unable to hide its turmoil.
China's strategy for archipelago warfare.upside - down map reveals one's ambition to enter the Pacific Ocean
This is a map of the archipelago line from China.From China's point of view, the First Archipelago Line is designed to contain China in the ocean.The presence of American troops in Okinawa is also an important point.China cannot break through the line without the understanding of other countries, and on the contrary, it is said that U.S. nuclear submarines can easily cross the first archipelago line into Chinese territorial waters.
Now China is trying to make all the inside of the First Archipelago Line belong to China.That's Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, and the Nansha Islands .The second archipelago line runs all the way to Guam.In recent years, many Chinese ships have been seen in Japan's Ogasawara Islands.The Ogasawara Islands are located almost on the second archipelago line from the Japanese archipelago to Guam.
The Third Archipelago Line leads to Hawaii .The U.S. military has already sealed China close to China, but China aims to acquire Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands, reach the second and third islands, and eventually acquire Hawaii.If China takes over Hawaii, it will be able to attack the U.S. mainland based there.
If Taiwan is recognized by the state and Japan and Taiwan are included in the alliance, the South China Sea will be covered from the north, while China will not be able to enter the Pacific Ocean.In other words, the QUAD and Taiwan policies advocated by former Prime Minister Abe are correct .In QUAD, it would be even stronger if the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam could be introduced from Australia and India across the sea.Collaboration between Japan, the United States and Taiwan will also be able to function as part of this.
Don't let China go to the Pacific Ocean.Japan is in danger of Chinese ships and submarines from all directions.
