Ukrainian army retakes strategic Liman in Donetsk region - will attack on annexed region push Russia into a state of war?
2022-10-03
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Ukraine regains eastern Liman
Ukraine has recaptured the strategic town of Liman in the eastern Donetsk region. It seems that they have advanced further since Kharkiv the other day. What is surprising is the operational capabilities of the Ukrainian military, as well as the weakness of the Russian military. Russian army is too weak. After the mobilization order for ３００,０００ people was issued, there is no end to the number of Russians fleeing near the border, and Russian soldiers who were captured from the beginning said, ``I want to see my mother, I want to go home.'' Cried.
Will the division strategy become an enemy?
From the beginning, Russia marched in an arc across the east, attempting to divide the Ukrainian army. However, the situation is now reversed, with the Ukrainian military now targeting areas where it is weak. It has been pointed out that this way of positioning is effective when going on the offensive, but it puts you at a disadvantage when going on the defensive.
Will Russia declare war?
What will be interesting to see in the retaking of Liman is whether Russia will declare a state of war. Currently, Russia is framing this as a special military operation aimed at peacekeeping operations. In other words, the people are not directly involved in this, it is a military operation and a policy of the Russian government. That is why the sudden partial mobilization order for ３００,０００ people caused so much unrest.
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Continued invasion of Ukraine - The Iraq War lasted for 8 years and 9 months with the participation of more than 40 countries.
There is a view that Russia is not as strong as expected as it was revealed in this invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has a population of about 44 million and the regular army has a population of about 210,000. Russia has a population of 140 million and the Russian army has a population of 900,000. Ukraine's GDP is 55th in the world, lower than Iraq. And in terms of location, it can be said that the Russian army is most likely to invade because it is a neighboring country. Belarus and Russia can also invade the capital Kyiv. Even so, even one month after the start of the war, it has not been suppressed. It is attracting attention in the sense that it is possible to fight so far just by providing weapons from developed countries.
The Iraq War lasted eight years and nine months. An airstrike on Baghdad by the US military was carried out on March 20, 2003, and Saddam Hussein was captured on December 13, 2003. More than 40 countries, including the United States and other developed countries, allies, and friendly countries, have made military intervention in Iraq. Still, it took eight years and nine months to conquer the whole of Iraq. What is different from Ukraine is that Iraq and its neighbors Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have not participated in the operation, and the countries that have conducted military intervention are dispatched to distant places.
After the capture of Hussein, destabilization in Iraq and guerrilla warfare continued. Even if we count the capture of Hussein, it will be about 9 months. Without nuclear weapons, it would take so much time to conquer a country even with modern weapons. And the common keyword is "national defense". In this sense, the Ukrainian war is likely to be prolonged if the goal is to control the whole country. On the other hand, Russia has said from the beginning that it is not thinking of controlling the whole of Ukraine. At what stage will the ceasefire agreement be reached? It presupposes that Russia's original goals will be achieved to some extent. There are many difficulties in the current negotiations as to how much Ukraine can accept Russia's demands.
If Russia is attacked
In the event of a state of war, martial law would be imposed and military conscription could be carried out at random. That is exactly the situation in Ukraine. Liman is in a region that was recently incorporated into Russia, so in theory it means that Russia was attacked. It is also said that Mr. Putin's decision to annex Russia was to raise the country to a state of war.
Putin's power domestically
If Putin is unable to declare a state of war, it would mean that his power in domestic politics has weakened. If martial law were to be declared, the sons of politicians would also have to be sent to the battlefield.
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Is Ukraine a liberal country? Wait a minute. How was the North Korean nuclear missile made?
There are many questions about whether Ukraine is a democratic country. Ukrainian democracy is said to have been after the Orange Revolution. It was 2005. During the Cold War, it was the same country as the former Soviet Union, and corruption and corruption were widespread, and the content was almost unchanged. During the former Soviet Union, there were many nuclear and military facilities in Ukraine.
Chinese aircraft carriers, fighters, missiles, etc. were provided by Ukraine. North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile development is being carried out by nuclear researchers from Russia and Ukraine. In 2017, a total of nine Ukrainian researchers were listed on the list, which the North Korean defectors who served for the North Korean secret police and the Ministry of State Security revealed as "Ukrainian scientists working in North Korea." In 2007, North Korea disassembled one 2,800-ton class and one 3,000-ton class submarine from Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula and carried them to North Korea. In other words, it will be clear which country it is. The weapons of China and North Korea that threaten us and other Asian countries are brought by Ukraine. Currently, in Kyiv, a railway from Wuhan has been constructed as a key point north of the Belt and Road Initiative, and China is ranked first in terms of both imports and exports by trade.
There is no dispute that the Ukrainians who are currently invaded should be saved, but the media's tone of being a liberal camp against Ukraine makes me very uncomfortable. Most of them were indifferent to human rights issues during the Iraq War. There was controversy over the participation of the Self-Defense Forces as logistical support, but the murder of Iraqi citizens was dismissed as a false bomb as reported by the United States. In other words, the Iraqi people can't help being killed, and the Ukrainians are pitiful. And he criticizes every time North Korea launches a missile. This is the current public opinion in Japan.
Former President Trump praised Putin as a
Former President Donald Trump praised Putin's move as "savvy" and "genius."President Vladimir Putin may be a genius given the speed, timing, and results of his strategic implementation, regardless of what he has done since the Russian military was stationed near the Ukrainian border.On the other hand, the situation in Europe and the United States is regrettable.NATO members in Europe and the United States have declared in advance that they will not send troops to Ukraine.That would have been a card that didn't need to be shown.This is a huge negotiation card.
This is a way of persuading Russia to stop attacking Ukraine because NATO will not send troops to Ukraine.The way to discourage Putin is to do economic sanctions and arms aid to Ukraine.President Zelensky's desire to join NATO after the Crimean crisis is natural, but how was the process designed? He seems to have approached the U.S. or rushed to apply for NATO membership.Ukraine is the country that knows Russia's intentions best, and it seems that it has suddenly abandoned its role as a buffer between Western Europe and Russia.What are the benefits of buffer countries?Ukraine is the country that can enjoy its benefits between EU and Russia.
In terms of profits, what do NATO think?What are the benefits of Ukraine joining NATO?Or what are the advantages of Ukraine's entry into the Western economic bloc?It is hard to believe that Ukraine has proposed these proposals in detail and detail.If Ukraine had continued to build alliances with other countries in its one-to-one relationship, and if NATO membership has existed in the future, where is this process?As a result, Western Europe openly abandoned Ukraine ,and the United States also in an instant.Putin had carefully observed these relationships ,and seems to have recognized the independence of pro-Russian forces in Ukraine.
Ukraine has lost part of its country, and is there still a way to join NATO?They need to prepare for Putin's next strategy.
How a country surrounded by great powers in history can remain an independent country.The Kingdom of Thailand was not colonized.
Speaking of how a country sandwiched between two major powers manages itself, there is the Kingdom of Thailand, which maintained its independence during the Asian colonial era. The white Asian colonies were ruled by the United Kingdom, which centered on India, France, which centered on Vietnam and Cambodia, and the Netherlands, which centered on Indonesia, so that they were not adjacent to each other.
Due to its geographical condition of being sandwiched between British and French colonial areas, Thailand takes advantage of the fact that Britain and France dislike being adjacent to each other, and does not lean towards either side, but acts as a buffer zone and transit point for both. Traded as land and profited from it.
On the Korean Peninsula, the Treaty of Tianjin was signed after the Kashin Coup, and the Japanese and Qing forces withdrew from the peninsula. This has the same meaning as the neutralization that Russia is seeking from Ukraine, which was confirmed in a treaty between Japan and Qing. However, due to the rebellion of the Donghak Party, Queen Min upset the balance and the Sino-Japanese War broke out. Empress Min thought that she could not control the civil war that had broken out in her country, so she requested reinforcements from the Qing Dynasty.
After the Sino-Japanese War, the Korean Peninsula became an independent country and established the Korean Empire, but it was devoted to Russia and tried to keep Japan and Qing in check. The Russo-Japanese War was the result of Russia's advance southward. In this case, too, it was a war between Japan and Russia.
The Korean Peninsula has no interest in the benefits of being a buffer zone, and has constantly implemented policies that disrupt the balance. As a result, the Korean government, believing that it would be unable to prevent the expansion of Russian interests, signed the Japan-Korea Annexation Treaty. Japan and Korea are not at war here. What is different from the Ukraine issue is that the Korean Peninsula was not subject to military invasion, and the issue was resolved between the major powers involved (Japan-Qing, Japan-Russia).
In Ukraine, a pro-Russian president and a pro-Western president have alternated every election. The eastern part has many residents who benefit from the economy with Russia, while the western part does business with Europe. With regard to domestic economic issues, if a pro-Western president is inaugurated, economic policies will be focused on Western areas, and if a pro-Russian president is inaugurated, economic policies will be focused on eastern areas. It will be done.
Although it may appear to be a security issue, economics has a lot to do with national elections. And while the current Zelensky administration is pro-Western, it has also taken an anti-Russian line. As a result, the security balance in Europe was seriously disrupted by the NATO membership issue.
In any case, times are different now. Russia has faced much criticism from the international community for its military invasion of these issues.
Japan, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and the EU announced sanctions against Russia.The content is limited, not enough to corner Russia.
Sanctions include (1) suspension of visa issuance and freezing of property for two "Republic" , (2) prohibition of import and export of two "Republics", and (3) prohibition of the issuance and distribution of new sovereign bonds in Japan.
Before that Japan's Foreign Minister Hayashi announced Japan will do sanctions in line with the G7, but the sanctions are not very strong.
German Chancellor Helmut Scholtz said on Wednesday he would suspend the approval process for a new gas pipeline (Nordstream 2) in Germany and Russia.Nordstream 2 is a pipeline that imports natural gas from Russia in the future without going through Ukraine, but will be suspended.However, it is doubtful how effective the sanctions will be because the current pipeline is exported to European countries via Ukraine.
The sanctions announced by the U.S. government are very limited.Pro-Russian-controlled areas are prohibited from doing economic transactions with the U.S. It was not sanctions against Russia.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has imposed sanctions on five banks and three Russian billionaires, saying they will be banned from traveling to Britain.
The EU said it agreed to target 27 individuals and organizations that "play a role in weakening or threatening Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence."
In any case, it is not a comprehensive plan to corner Russia's economy, but a partial, limited, and future solution.
Russia was subject to economic sanctions over the Crimean Peninsula last time, and based on its experience and current economic relations between the U.S. and Europe, it predicted the size of the sanctions and decided to send troops to Donetsk and Lugansk.Territorial disputes will benefit the region permanently after its conquest.Crimea ,Donetsk and Lugansk have 3,796,000 people, and after all Russia will occupy their economy.
Economic sanctions against territorial aggression cannot be used as a countermeasure from the beginning.Unless Russia returns it, losses from economic sanctions will be recovered from the region.
The fifth Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiation was held in Turkey and ended - Is there a possibility of multilateral negotiations in the future?
A ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia was held in Istanbul, Turkey on the 29th."We have decided to drastically reduce military operations around Kiev and in Chernihu in the north to achieve the goal of signing the treaty by enhancing mutual trust and setting the necessary conditions for the next round of negotiations," NHK reported.Ukraine said it would accept neutrality by establishing a new security framework.Turkey's Foreign Minister, Chausch 外相or, said, "We have reached agreement on several items and have made the most meaningful progress so far."
According to Russian reports, the reduction of military operations means a halt to fighting between Kiev and Chernihu.Chernihu is a city just south of the border between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, where it passes to capture Kiev from Russia and Belarus.But Russian journalist Yuri Vasiliev has said the suspension of the fighting in Chernihu does not mean a reduction in Russian military activity.In other words, the troops reduced in the region will be distributed to other regions.
"The possibility of a meeting of heads of state to sign the treaty will be discussed," said Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation.This is not an easy problem."Especially to make it a multilateral conference with the participation of countries that guarantee peace and security in Ukraine."
In any case, Ukraine seems to be seeking neutrality on the premise of building new European security.This would require security agreements, including NATO members, rather than negotiations between Ukraine and Russia alone.Attention is focusing on whether NATO will change its position as a third party to provide weapons.
