Under the Ukrainian Constitution, NATO and EU membership are required.Many hurdles to Ukraine's neutrality.
2022-03-30
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Revision of the Constitution under President Poroshenko
During the ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey, Ukraine expressed its willingness to accept neutrality on the premise of establishing new security, but the problem does not appear to be easy.For one thing, Russian delegation leader Vladimir Mezinski says NATO members need to attend and agree on a joint meeting to ensure Ukraine's security.Another difficult issue is the Ukrainian Constitution.In February 2019, Ukraine revised the Constitution and revised and added the following articles.
Ukraine Constitution Article 102
The President of Ukraine is the head of state and have to act as a representative.
The President of Ukraine is a guarantor of national sovereignty, territorial integrity of Ukraine, compliance with the Constitution of Ukraine, and human rights and civil rights and freedoms.
The President of Ukraine must ensure the implementation of the State's strategic course towards full accession of Ukraine to the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
In other words, the Constitution stipulates that NATO and EU membership are obligations that Ukrainian presidents must aim for.If the Constitution guarantees neutrality, the Ukrainian president is guilty of violation of the Constitution .It is highly likely that the negotiations itself are against the Constitution.
Provide obligations other than The President
Article 85 provides for the implementation of a national strategic course for full membership of Ukraine in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and Article 116 provides for the implementation of a strategic course for membership of the EU and NATO.These are the same as amendments to Article 102.In other words, not only the president but also the diplomatic and cabinet members must make efforts to join.In other words, this constitution needs to be revised .To change the Constitution they need two-thirds of Diet members pass and hold a referendum, according to Article 156 states.
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A clever Russian strategy How many scenarios does Putin have for Ukraine?
Putin's purpose is, as he said, to the east, NATO's non-expansion.If you think about the purpose of the Russian troops stationed near the Ukrainian border, how many scenarios are there?How many scenarios did the Biden administration attempt to respond to?
The first possibility is that if Ukraine joins NATO, it will capture Kiev, Ukraine's capital.In response, NATO countries in Europe said they would not send troops to Ukraine, and Biden's administration said they would not send troops to Ukraine.Biden's tone is "all-out war," so he would not send troops.That is, Biden tried to put off the issue by saying Ukraine would not join NATO in the near future.
From Russia's point of view, this is probably an ambiguous solution.However, if NATO forces do not enter Ukraine in the near future, Russia's immediate reason for its attack on Ukraine will be weakened, while the United States will continue to shout that Russia will attack and foreign companies withdrawed from Ukraine.Economic sanctions such as withdrawal at the civilian level have already begun.Russia claims to have withdrawn some of its troops, but the United States claims Russia is increasing its forces.Is this Biden's strategy?
Putin gets only economic blow.Therefore, the second scenario was to recognize the independence of the People's Republic of Lugansk and the People's Republic of Donetsk. We decided to bring back results.Russia is strongly opposed to Ukraine's NATO membership and is negotiating with Europe and U.S, which seemed different from case of Crimea aimed at some regions.Western countries are also responding to NATO versus Russia's all-out war.The theme is to avoid all-out war.
Putin approved the independence of pro-Russian forces after the next U.S.-Russia summit was decided and before the talks.The timing was exquisite.As a result, Putin obtained two cards before the talks.Russian troops will station in Lugansk and Donetsk to pressure the West and Ukraine.Moreover, Russia would try to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO.Since the eastern half of Ukraine is inhabited by many Russians, this method can be used in the future.Did Biden get the card?I think it's the same as the beginning.
President Putin seems to have done better this time.He succeeded in achieving results, and NATO even declared that it would not enter Ukraine.
Ukrainian military shelling of Russian military clergy ? just a false bombing, or is the battle moving into the next phase?
The Russian Orthodox Church said on the 25th that a Russian military cleric was killed in a rocket attack from the Ukrainian side near the Ukrainian border in the southwest.
Will the war enter the next phase, or is this just a false bombing, or is it an intelligence war by Russia?Ukraine is currently defending itself.This is a defense against Russian aggression.When the Ukrainian attack is directed across the border at Russia, the situation enters the next phase.A defensive battle is a war of attrition that fights against an enemy who has invaded the country while suffering domestic damage.The fact that Japan does not allow anything other than self-defense is assumed to be such a battle.Although their military facilities, towns and infrastructure are destroyed, the enemy territory remains intact, so the fighting naturally becomes inferior.If the U.N. attacks Russia this time, it will be a phase of a clear all-out war.
After Zelensky's speech to the U.S. House of Representatives, Biden announced that he would provide Ukraine with 100 attack drones.If attack drones and missile attacks are carried out on Russia in the future, Russian civilians will be killed in large numbers.And there will be many changes in public opinion in Russia.It is worrisome how public opinion in Russia will change when its own citizens begin to suffer from the damage.
The longer the battle, the more disadvantageous it is.Japan's inferiority in the Pacific War was partly due to its inability to attack the U.S. mainland at all.
90,000 Russian troops gather near the border. Will there be an invasion of Ukraine? Relationship between Putin and Zelensky.
Regarding his neighboring country Ukraine, President Putin appealed that ``Russians and Ukrainians are one people,'' and on July 12, he published a paper on the ``historical unity'' of the two countries. In a televised dialogue with the people on June 30, Mr. Putin was asked about relations with Ukraine, and he said, ``I don't think the Ukrainian people are unfriendly to us,'' and said, both peoples. said, ``We are one nation.''. On the other hand, he claimed that ``Ukraine's leadership is unfriendly,'' and argued that the problem lies with Zelensky's government, which is under Western influence.
President Putin criticizes current President Zelenskiy by name.
President Zelenskiy became president in 2019 with high approval ratings, but he is currently requesting that he join NATO. At a press conference on November 26, Mr. Zelenskiy said he had received information that a coup d'état was being planned for December 1, and also mentioned the possibility that Russia and top business conglomerates were involved.
I wonder if Russia will directly invade Ukraine in the form of war, as 90,000 Russian soldiers are currently gathered near the border. The supply of natural gas destined for Europe is said to be limited to about 4%.
The Communtern's strategy is to provoke other countries into internal conflict. Taking advantage of the internal conflict created, they intervene under the pretext of protecting Russians. The same pattern as in Crimea can be considered. Since Mr. Zelensky's approval rating is currently around 20%, it appears that Mr. Putin is trying to shake up Ukraine in order to oust Mr. Zelensky.
Russia also appears to be trying to shake up Zelenskiy's government from within Ukraine by applying military pressure on Ukraine.
The CIA asked Zelensky to flee the country.Zelensky, who stayed in Ukraine, became a hero.
The U.S. told through the CIA to Zelensky You are Russia's "first goal".The Washington Post (WP) reported that the CIA told that we are ready to evacuate you and your family abroad.CIA Director William Burns is known to have mentioned the above issues to President Zelensky during his visit to Ukraine.In response, Zelensky said he would remain in Ukraine, and in Korea, he was called a hero with courage.Now, let's look at the CIA's request again.This encourages the president of a country to seek asylum abroad.In which world will the president of a war-torn or dangerous country defect abroad?The last time such incidents occurred in Afghanistan, it was clearly considered a renunciation of power.Afghan President Gani fled the Taliban's invasion and fled the country, and the Taliban quickly overpowered Afghanistan.
The president has strong authority.The most important thing is martial law and the authority of the commander-in-chief of the army.If martial law is issued, it will be possible to impose extra-legal domestic regulations.As commander-in-chief of the military, there are many operations that cannot be carried out without the president's permission.In other words, the United States urged Zelensky to relinquish these powers and flee abroad.Does this mean that the president should resign and end the war?
America has been in a third-party position on the Ukurina issue since the beginning.NATO countries responded the same way early on, announcing that they would not send U.S. troops to Ukraine.
Negotiations on Ukraine broke down.Russia's goal is to neutralize and demilitarize Ukraine.NATO provides logistical support.
Negotiations on a ceasefire between Ukrainian and Russian delegations ended for five hours in Gomeri, southeastern Belarus, near the border with Ukraine.Ukraine has already notified of unconditional negotiations, and what this means is that it does not object to the recognition of independence of Lugansk and Donetsk.Russia seems to have offered conditions.
Russia's conditions are "neutralization" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine.This may seem like a peaceful settlement, but it is a completely different request."Neutralization" means Ukraine's non-NATO membership, and Ukraine's current intentions may be put aside but it would be accepted.However, "unarmed" means that there is no military, and that having an army is a legitimate right under international law included in a country's right to live, which means that it will no longer be a sovereign state.In other words, Russia has offered unacceptable conditions.As a result, the negotiations broke down and the negotiations were decided to negotiate next time.
Russia's original demand is NATO's non-expansion to the east.This has not changed since the beginning.So why can't Ukraine compromise on the terms of "neutralization" that it can accept?This also seems to mean that there will be no will of Russia to negotiat with Ukraine.Russia has taken military action against the possibility of NATO's eastern expansion to Ukraine and the deployment of NATO forces near the Russian border.In other words, it is fundamentally a matter of NATO and Russia.
NATO has consistently said that it is up to the will of the applicant countries to join NATO.In other words, NATO's passive stance is that it is the will of the applicant countries rather than the will of NATO.However, the war is continuing.Perhaps what Russia wants to negotiate is NATO troops.NATO wants further commitment to the non-expansion of the East.In this sense, Ukraine may not be Russia's negotiating partner.NATO is trying to stop the Russian military by imposing economic sanctions and arousing international public opinion.
If NATO agrees on non-expansion to the East ,and Ukraine as a neutral country, Ukraine's sovereignty and peace will be maintained, and both Russia and NATO will have important buffer states.If NATO or Russia sends troops to Ukraine, it will be a war between NATO and Russia.Then the military balance will be maintained.Indeed, for NATO, Ukraine's membership has little advantage.Therefore, Western countries immediately announced that they would not send troops to Ukraine to avoid war.
In Japanese history, there is a Tianjin Treaty signed with Qing in 1885.This means that the two sides will withdraw from the Korean Peninsula in order to ease tensions between Japan and China after the Kim Ok-kyun Gapsin Incident.In other words, the Korean Peninsula is considered a neutral military zone of military neutrality.As a result, Queen Min, who failed to suppress the Donghak Party's rebellion on the Korean Peninsula, asked Qing for reinforcements, which triggered the Japan-Qing War.Without such a blunder, Ukraine could become an independent country, and on the contrary, a stable and protected country between Russia and NATO.
Russia's request is simple and nothing has changed.NATO Western countries have become third parties to economic sanctions without participating in the war.Will NATO negotiate with Russia?
