Did the introduction of attack drones into eastern Ukraine create an excuse for the Russian invasion?
2022-03-25
Category:Ukraine
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Ukraine without diplomatic negotiations with Russia
Looking at the situation in Ukraine and having seen it for some time before, there are many doubts about Zelensky's foreign policy.Did he understand the implications of not having talks with Putin and not having summit talks with neighboring countries?The Japan-South Korea issue is nothing more than a diplomatic conflict that does not develop into a so-called war within the U.S.-Japan military alliance, but will it be same in this sensitive area of Ukraine?
A drone attack on eastern Ukraine
Perhaps because he was too confident that he could join NATO only through verbal negotiations with Europe and the U.S., Ukraine's military staff announced on October 26, 2021 that they had launched an attack on forces in eastern Ukraine with an attack drone, TB2.Russia warned on 27 that the conflict could escalate.Since countries with conflicts cannot join NATO, did they physically try to end the conflict?Attack drones are said to be game changers for air warfare around the world, and their range of operations is unknown, and they are weapons that countries have been paying attention to in recent years.The cancellation of the Minsk agreement was done by Ukraine.Ninety thousand Russian troops gathered near the border just days after the launch of an attack drone into eastern Ukraine.
What would happen if President Tsai Ying-wen physically attacked an election area seeking integration with China in Taiwan and China?It only gives an excuse for China's armed invasion.Why don't Taiwan declare its independence while building close relations with Japan and the United States?This is because President Chae himself understands that he has not reached the phase of a military alliance.
Why did the war start
It is natural that the Ukrainian people are not responsible at all.Their right to live their daily lives should be protected and their actions to kill civilians should be condemned.However, the most puzzling thing is that reports from each country are explained in a series by the story that Russia suddenly gathered 90,000 people near the border.
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[related article]
How a country surrounded by great powers in history can remain an independent country.The Kingdom of Thailand was not colonized.
Speaking of how a country sandwiched between two major powers manages itself, there is the Kingdom of Thailand, which maintained its independence during the Asian colonial era. The white Asian colonies were ruled by the United Kingdom, which centered on India, France, which centered on Vietnam and Cambodia, and the Netherlands, which centered on Indonesia, so that they were not adjacent to each other.
Due to its geographical condition of being sandwiched between British and French colonial areas, Thailand takes advantage of the fact that Britain and France dislike being adjacent to each other, and does not lean towards either side, but acts as a buffer zone and transit point for both. Traded as land and profited from it.
On the Korean Peninsula, the Treaty of Tianjin was signed after the Kashin Coup, and the Japanese and Qing forces withdrew from the peninsula. This has the same meaning as the neutralization that Russia is seeking from Ukraine, which was confirmed in a treaty between Japan and Qing. However, due to the rebellion of the Donghak Party, Queen Min upset the balance and the Sino-Japanese War broke out. Empress Min thought that she could not control the civil war that had broken out in her country, so she requested reinforcements from the Qing Dynasty.
After the Sino-Japanese War, the Korean Peninsula became an independent country and established the Korean Empire, but it was devoted to Russia and tried to keep Japan and Qing in check. The Russo-Japanese War was the result of Russia's advance southward. In this case, too, it was a war between Japan and Russia.
The Korean Peninsula has no interest in the benefits of being a buffer zone, and has constantly implemented policies that disrupt the balance. As a result, the Korean government, believing that it would be unable to prevent the expansion of Russian interests, signed the Japan-Korea Annexation Treaty. Japan and Korea are not at war here. What is different from the Ukraine issue is that the Korean Peninsula was not subject to military invasion, and the issue was resolved between the major powers involved (Japan-Qing, Japan-Russia).
In Ukraine, a pro-Russian president and a pro-Western president have alternated every election. The eastern part has many residents who benefit from the economy with Russia, while the western part does business with Europe. With regard to domestic economic issues, if a pro-Western president is inaugurated, economic policies will be focused on Western areas, and if a pro-Russian president is inaugurated, economic policies will be focused on eastern areas. It will be done.
Although it may appear to be a security issue, economics has a lot to do with national elections. And while the current Zelensky administration is pro-Western, it has also taken an anti-Russian line. As a result, the security balance in Europe was seriously disrupted by the NATO membership issue.
In any case, times are different now. Russia has faced much criticism from the international community for its military invasion of these issues.
Ukraine crisis as seen from Cuban crisis. Cuba protected but Ukraine isolated.
After Castro's successful Cuban Revolution in 1959, Cuba decided to pursue a socialist path and joined the socialist camp, and American capital was expelled.In 1961, President Eisenhauer broke off diplomatic relations with Cuba.Kennedy, the next president, failed in his attempt to overthrow Castro's revolutionary government by organizing Cubans who had defected to the United States to invade Cuba.In response, Castro stepped up his anti-U.S. stance and approached the Soviet Union, while Khrushchev deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba to gain an advantage over the U.S. by deploying nuclear weapons.
In October 1962, a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance plane discovered that a Soviet missile base was under construction.The range covered the entire United States and made it easier to attack the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons.In a televised address on TV, President Kennedy declared that he would block the waters and airspace around Cuba to prevent the Soviet Union from bringing in weapons and ammunition and supplies used to make nuclear weapons.The Soviet Union was already in the process of sending ships loaded with goods and weapons to Cuba.Breaking through the U.S. blockade of the sea would have resulted in direct clashes, and the nuclear war crisis was imminent.The two leaders negotiated behind the scenes, and Khrushchev told Kennedy that the U.S. would remove its missile base in exchange for not invading Cuba. The agreement was reached on Oct. 27 to avoid a nuclear war crisis.
What is the difference between the Ukraine crisis and the Cuban crisis?The U.S. and Russia are in the opposite position.Castro approached the Soviet Union with the aim of building a socialist country and Zelensky approached NATO as a democratic country.This is also the opposite.And the same is true of the crisis, but why?The biggest difference was that Kennedy and Khrushchev had a conversation to avoid war and were avoided at the last minute.The United States has taken the position that it is not the party concerned this time.
The Cuban crisis was averted by dialogue between the United States and Russia.The U.S. has no intention of negotiating the Ukraine issue, only Ukraine was left behind
Under the Ukrainian Constitution, NATO and EU membership are required.Many hurdles to Ukraine's neutrality.
During the ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey, Ukraine expressed its willingness to accept neutrality on the premise of establishing new security, but the problem does not appear to be easy.For one thing, Russian delegation leader Vladimir Mezinski says NATO members need to attend and agree on a joint meeting to ensure Ukraine's security.Another difficult issue is the Ukrainian Constitution.In February 2019, Ukraine revised the Constitution and revised and added the following articles.
Ukraine Constitution Article 102
The President of Ukraine is the head of state and have to act as a representative.
The President of Ukraine is a guarantor of national sovereignty, territorial integrity of Ukraine, compliance with the Constitution of Ukraine, and human rights and civil rights and freedoms.
The President of Ukraine must ensure the implementation of the State's strategic course towards full accession of Ukraine to the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
In other words, the Constitution stipulates that NATO and EU membership are obligations that Ukrainian presidents must aim for.If the Constitution guarantees neutrality, the Ukrainian president is guilty of violation of the Constitution .It is highly likely that the negotiations itself are against the Constitution.
Article 85 provides for the implementation of a national strategic course for full membership of Ukraine in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and Article 116 provides for the implementation of a strategic course for membership of the EU and NATO.These are the same as amendments to Article 102.In other words, not only the president but also the diplomatic and cabinet members must make efforts to join.In other words, this constitution needs to be revised .To change the Constitution they need two-thirds of Diet members pass and hold a referendum, according to Article 156 states.
The CIA asked Zelensky to flee the country.Zelensky, who stayed in Ukraine, became a hero.
The U.S. told through the CIA to Zelensky You are Russia's "first goal".The Washington Post (WP) reported that the CIA told that we are ready to evacuate you and your family abroad.CIA Director William Burns is known to have mentioned the above issues to President Zelensky during his visit to Ukraine.In response, Zelensky said he would remain in Ukraine, and in Korea, he was called a hero with courage.Now, let's look at the CIA's request again.This encourages the president of a country to seek asylum abroad.In which world will the president of a war-torn or dangerous country defect abroad?The last time such incidents occurred in Afghanistan, it was clearly considered a renunciation of power.Afghan President Gani fled the Taliban's invasion and fled the country, and the Taliban quickly overpowered Afghanistan.
The president has strong authority.The most important thing is martial law and the authority of the commander-in-chief of the army.If martial law is issued, it will be possible to impose extra-legal domestic regulations.As commander-in-chief of the military, there are many operations that cannot be carried out without the president's permission.In other words, the United States urged Zelensky to relinquish these powers and flee abroad.Does this mean that the president should resign and end the war?
America has been in a third-party position on the Ukurina issue since the beginning.NATO countries responded the same way early on, announcing that they would not send U.S. troops to Ukraine.
Poland's supply of fighter jets is in trouble.Ukraine says it will accept neutrality.
Poland's plan to supply Soviet-made fighter jets to Ukraine seems to be in trouble.The Polish government announced on August 8 that it would hand over fighter jets to the U.S. and provide them to Ukraine via the U.S., but the U.S. expressed its intention not to accept Poland's proposal for fear of Russian opposition.
The Ukrainian Air Force announced on August 1 that it would receive 28 MiG-29s from Poland, but Poland later denied the infomation handing them over.Poland's attempt to provide Mig-29 via the U.S. due to pressure from Russia but The U.S. rejected .Romania has been threatened by Russia, saying it recognizes Ukraine's use of the airport .It is clear that Europe is still supplying weapons to Ukraine, and fighter jets are one of its weapons, but is it different to say that fighter jets or air force aid?
Ukraine asked NATO to set up a no-fly zone, but NATO refused.The establishment of a no-fly zone means NATO's deployment of fighter jets to shoot down Russian aircraft, which means NATO's participation in the war.Ukraine's demand to do something about intensifying air strikes was not met, and furthermore, it is difficult to provide fighter jets from Poland.
Zelensky's ruling party, "People's Servant," announced on August 8 if neighboring countries, including NATO and Russia, will guarantee Ukraine's security and neutrality, Ukraine will accept the order of Russian neutrality .However, it is unclear how the negotiations will proceed as Russia demands Total abolition of Ukraine's army and Ukraine refuses to recognize the independence of Donetsk and the People's Republic of Lugansk.
In conclusion, after the Crimean crisis, Ukraine's intention to join NATO is a security issue, but if NATO and Russia guarantee Ukraine's neutrality and security, there will be no need to stick to NATO membership.And this may have been something to be negotiated before the war.The only solution to the issue is to treat Ukraine as a buffer zone and maintain peacefully.But the war has already begun, and the problem is much more complicated than before.Ukraine's ruling party's intentions are premised on negotiations between NATO and Russia.
If Ukraine is guaranteed peace as a neutral region, Russia will not be adjacent to NATO and will meet Russia's original requirements.