Former President Trump praised Putin as a
2022-02-23
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Trump praises Putin
Former President Donald Trump praised Putin's move as "savvy" and "genius."President Vladimir Putin may be a genius given the speed, timing, and results of his strategic implementation, regardless of what he has done since the Russian military was stationed near the Ukrainian border.On the other hand, the situation in Europe and the United States is regrettable.NATO members in Europe and the United States have declared in advance that they will not send troops to Ukraine.That would have been a card that didn't need to be shown.This is a huge negotiation card.
Europe and the United States negotiating with the remaining cards
This is a way of persuading Russia to stop attacking Ukraine because NATO will not send troops to Ukraine.The way to discourage Putin is to do economic sanctions and arms aid to Ukraine.President Zelensky's desire to join NATO after the Crimean crisis is natural, but how was the process designed? He seems to have approached the U.S. or rushed to apply for NATO membership.Ukraine is the country that knows Russia's intentions best, and it seems that it has suddenly abandoned its role as a buffer between Western Europe and Russia.What are the benefits of buffer countries?Ukraine is the country that can enjoy its benefits between EU and Russia.
The benefits of protecting Ukraine are uncertain
In terms of profits, what do NATO think?What are the benefits of Ukraine joining NATO?Or what are the advantages of Ukraine's entry into the Western economic bloc?It is hard to believe that Ukraine has proposed these proposals in detail and detail.If Ukraine had continued to build alliances with other countries in its one-to-one relationship, and if NATO membership has existed in the future, where is this process?As a result, Western Europe openly abandoned Ukraine ,and the United States also in an instant.Putin had carefully observed these relationships ,and seems to have recognized the independence of pro-Russian forces in Ukraine.
POINT Ukraine has lost part of its country, and is there still a way to join NATO?They need to prepare for Putin's next strategy.
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Four Ukrainian regions apply to be annexed to Russia - An area three times the size of Kyushu will be annexed to Russia.
Four Ukrainian regions apply for annexation to Russia
A huge area will be annexed
How do we measure the war situation
The former Soviet Union had the highest number of war deaths in the world
What will be the target value at the end of the war?
Referendums were held in four Ukrainian oblasts, and on the 28th, pro-Russian factions in the four oblasts officially applied to Russian President Vladimir Putin for annexation, claiming that the majority of votes were in favor of annexation to Russia. Mr. Putin is scheduled to declare the country's annexation to Russia on the 30th. It is reported that Russia is at a disadvantage in the war, and a partial mobilization order for 300,000 people has been issued, sparking much criticism at home and abroad.
The four oblasts scheduled to be annexed to Russia are Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. The total area was 108,840 km2. This area is approximately three times the size of Kyushu, Japan. South Korea has an area of 100,200 km2, so it's probably close in area. All of this will be annexed to Russia.
Opinions on whether the war situation is superior or inferior differ depending on the scale. Should we think in terms of the number of soldiers killed or in terms of territory? As an example, in World War II, the former Soviet Union drove back the advancing Nazis and ultimately led the Allies to victory.
The former Soviet Union had the highest number of deaths in World War II, estimated at 21.8 million to 28 million people. For Germany, it's between 7 million and 9 million people. The number of Japanese war dead is said to be between 2.62 million and 3.12 million. Still, Russia is a victorious country. As a result, the Nazis retreated, Hitler committed suicide, and the war ended because of the many sacrifices made by the former Soviet Union, but in other words, the outcome of the war cannot be said to be determined by the number of deaths. .
What will be interesting to watch in the future is whether Ukraine will attempt to take back these four regions. If future ceasefire negotiations include the return of these four states, the ceasefire will likely become hopeless. If that happens, it will also include the return of Crimea. In other words, there seems to be no other way than to get it back through combat. The Russian constitution stipulates that the president may not sign treaties that would result in the surrender of national territory.
Former Defense Minister Onodera implicitly criticized the Ukraine issue.Japan and Taiwan will be the same as Ukraine. Former Defense Minister Onodera appeared on Sunday's report on the Ukraine incident and expressed his opinion.
Main remarks by Onodera
The Trump era did not exclude military resources.Biden ruled it out.Putin believes that the United States is just a mouthful.
The same thing happened in Afghanistan.It also happened in Ukraine.It could also happen in Taiwan.
Zelensky not only wants NATO to protect him, but also to protect his country.This will win the support of other countries.This is true of Japan, too.
I don't think we can do much about economic sanctions because we couldn't do anything during the Crimean Peninsula.
Taiwan has no military alliance with the United States.Looking at the present situation in the United States, Taiwan will eventually be abandoned.There is a trend in Taiwan to get along well with China.
The Ukraine issue is similar to the Taiwan issue, and Taiwan has not even declared independence.Neither the U.S. nor Japan has even approved it.In this relationship, we cannot help but be skeptical about what kind of legal framework the United States will use to defend Taiwan.In the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act, except for the provision of weapons to defend Taiwan, only the ambiguous phrase "appropriate action" is written.
Taiwan belongs to China internationally.The United Nations also defines the People's Republic of China as China's representative government./?num=187.Taiwan's independence requires the international community to declare Taiwan a state of independence, and the countries concerned recognize it.We can form an alliance for the first time after national recognition.If China attacks before that, which country will help Taiwan?
Trump would not have ruled out military options in Ukraine and would have approved Taiwan's independence.President Putin easily recognized the independence of pro-Russian forces.
Russia Takes Control of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Southern Ukraine, IAEA Says
According to the IAEA, Russia has taken control of the Zapolyja nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine.Russia's Defense Ministry has informed the IAEA of its control.Ukraine denies it, but if Russia controls the nuclear power plant, it will be the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine.It generates half of Ukraine's nuclear power plants and generates one-fifth of Ukraine's total electricity.If Russia takes control of Zapolizia, Russia will be able to obtain Azov Sea by taking control of the area from Lugansk, Donetsk to Zapolizia and Crimea.
It is said that one of Russia's purposes is the sea.For this reason, Zaporizhzhia is a connected area between Crimea and Donetsk, so it was controlled.In this way, Odessa is located in southwestern Ukraine, with 41.9% speaking Russian.If Odessa is overpowered, Russia will be able to seize the Black Sea by conquering Donetsk, Zapolizia, Crimea, Odessa and southern Ukraine.Then you can stare at Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria, focusing on the Black Sea.
The Black Sea is said to be Russia's main goal in the war, although the military heading to Kiev is now attracting attention.
Russia has historically sought an antifreeze port.It seems that obtaining the Black Sea will be remembered in Russian history.
A clever Russian strategy How many scenarios does Putin have for Ukraine?
Putin's purpose is, as he said, to the east, NATO's non-expansion.If you think about the purpose of the Russian troops stationed near the Ukrainian border, how many scenarios are there?How many scenarios did the Biden administration attempt to respond to?
The first possibility is that if Ukraine joins NATO, it will capture Kiev, Ukraine's capital.In response, NATO countries in Europe said they would not send troops to Ukraine, and Biden's administration said they would not send troops to Ukraine.Biden's tone is "all-out war," so he would not send troops.That is, Biden tried to put off the issue by saying Ukraine would not join NATO in the near future.
From Russia's point of view, this is probably an ambiguous solution.However, if NATO forces do not enter Ukraine in the near future, Russia's immediate reason for its attack on Ukraine will be weakened, while the United States will continue to shout that Russia will attack and foreign companies withdrawed from Ukraine.Economic sanctions such as withdrawal at the civilian level have already begun.Russia claims to have withdrawn some of its troops, but the United States claims Russia is increasing its forces.Is this Biden's strategy?
Putin gets only economic blow.Therefore, the second scenario was to recognize the independence of the People's Republic of Lugansk and the People's Republic of Donetsk. We decided to bring back results.Russia is strongly opposed to Ukraine's NATO membership and is negotiating with Europe and U.S, which seemed different from case of Crimea aimed at some regions.Western countries are also responding to NATO versus Russia's all-out war.The theme is to avoid all-out war.
Putin approved the independence of pro-Russian forces after the next U.S.-Russia summit was decided and before the talks.The timing was exquisite.As a result, Putin obtained two cards before the talks.Russian troops will station in Lugansk and Donetsk to pressure the West and Ukraine.Moreover, Russia would try to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO.Since the eastern half of Ukraine is inhabited by many Russians, this method can be used in the future.Did Biden get the card?I think it's the same as the beginning.
President Putin seems to have done better this time.He succeeded in achieving results, and NATO even declared that it would not enter Ukraine.
1,700 anti - war demonstrators arrested in 50 Russian cities.Will Ukraine's invasion affect Russia's 2024 presidential election?
Anti-war demonstrations are taking place in Russia over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.It was held in 50 cities and 1,700 people were detained.The reason for the arrest is that they put up placards.They are not mobbed.According to journalist Natalya Vasiliev, the authorities arrested the alleged protesters indiscriminately, and Vasiliev himself was temporarily detained even though he said he was a journalist.
Originally, there were speculations that Putin would invade Ukraine in order to secure domestic support in anticipation of the next presidential election in 2024, but there was a reaction.However, it is unclear whether the move is a Russian sentiment or a civic movement.In fact, some people have ordered an invasion of Ukraine.Russia has desired a strong leader in history.He is a leader who can unite the people, even with strong leadership and dictatorship.This is why Putin was elected president four times, despite growing anti-Putin public opinion.It is noteworthy how the current anti-war protests will spread.
Regarding the 2024 Russian presidential election, Putin hinted at running in December 2021, saying, "According to the Constitution, I have the right to run."In June 2021, he said, "It is my responsibility to recommend a successor.Regarding whether he will run in the 2024 presidential election, some say he will avoid destabilizing the country, while others say he will not run in the fifth term.
In any case, Russia is a democratic country, but it doesn't look like that way.In other words, he was arrested and arrested for holding placards during anti-war demonstrations.It can be said that the conventional wisdom of the socialist era has not disappeared at all.On the other hand, anti-war demonstrations in 50 cities are tantamount to people taking democratic action.Whether Russians want democracy or a strong leader in the next presidential election is drawing attention.
If anti-war demonstrations expand in Russia, Putin's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election will be reduced.Moving Russian citizens by international public opinion may be one of the strategies.
