Has Ukraine given up NATO membership? Zelensky says NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.
2022-03-10
Category:Ukraine
Photo by U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Jerry Morrison (licensed under CC0 1.0 )
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No longer seeking NATO membership
Zelensky said he no longer wants Ukraine to join NATO.This is one of the reasons why Russia invaded its pro-Western neighbors.NATO also said it was not ready to accept Ukraine.He said on February 24 he was ready to "compromise" on the status of two pro-Russian territories that President Vladimir Putin acknowledged as independent just before the invasion.Zelensky told NATO members through an interpreter that he did not want to be president of a "kneeling country."<--AFP Article Excerpt //>
Can NATO and Russia do business?
Western countries have consistently said they will not send troops to Ukraine.In response, Zelensky repeatedly appealed for NATO cooperation, but he calmly considered the current situation and thought it would be difficult to join NATO.At the same time, Zelensky is demanding Ukraine's security from both NATO and Russia, and how to achieve this will be a challenge.Have there been any examples of NATO-Russia agreements in the past?In other words, considering what would happen if one side broke its promise, we would have to be very cautious about the NATO-Russia deal.
Negotiations that changed the situation
In any case, the only solution is to protect Ukraine's security.How to achieve this is the key to solving this problem.In other words, Zelensky has begun to agree.
POINT What kind of response will NATO and Russia make to President Zelensky's message?
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Ukraine and World War II.How far will economic sanctions stop Russia?
Countries are tightening economic sanctions against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Russia's ruble fell to about 66 percent.Others are skeptical about whether economic sanctions will stop Russia's march and say sanctions are working.What do you think of past wars?In World War I, Germany was defeated and had to pay heavy compensation.After the Great Depression, the Nazis grew stronger in this envioroment and became the first party in Germany's economy.
After the Manchurian Incident, An ABCD encirclement network had established against Japan, and after the Nogokyo Incident, Japan's economy was completely surrounded.It is more like an economic blockade than an economic sanction.For Japan, where all supplies and oil were stopped and resources were scarce, it was like a food attack.As a result, the Nazis invaded all of Europe and Japan entered the Great East Asian War and the Pacific War.After World War II, postwar processing was based on international recognition that Germany's compensation in World War I eventually led to World War II. And China gave up its claim for compensation to Japan when diplomatic relations between China and Japan were normalized.
U.S. economic blockade against Japan
July 1939 (Showa 14) Notice of Abolition of the Japan-U.S. Trade and Navigation Treaty
In December 1939, we notified them to stop exporting aircraft gasoline manufacturing equipment and manufacturing technology rights as moral embago.
The Japan-U.S. Trade and Navigation Treaty expired in January 1940
June 1940 (Showa 15) Export license system for special machine tools, etc. to Japan
In July 1940, the Defense Enhancement Promotion Act was enacted (the president's authority to select export items)
July 26, 1940 (Showa 15) Enacted the Export Control Act on Steel and Steel Export Cutting Oil
August 1940 Export license system for petroleum products (mainly aviation fuel with octane value of 87 or higher), tetraethyl lead, iron and scrap iron for aviation gasoline addition
August 1940: Total embargo on aircraft fuel outside the Western Hemisphere
September 1940: Total embargo on scrap iron
December 1940 Export license system for aircraft lubricating oil manufacturing equipment and 15 other items
Oil export license system in June 1941
July 1941 Order for Freezing Japanese Assets in the United States
August 1941: Total oil embargo on JapanList Excerpt Wikipedia
It is unclear how the economic sanctions against Russia will work, but it is highly likely that the war will accelerate in the face of national survival.Or Russia may start to compensate for its economic losses by merging Moldova and Georgia, not just Ukraine.Can North Korea explain what it is doing under U.N. economic sanctions?Ironically, it was war that ended the war.Or eliminate the cause of the war.
The world seems to be doing exactly what was done 100 years ago.Russia says it will not stop the war until it completes its operation.
How will the Ukraine issue end?What's the possibility of a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine?Is there a way to solve it?
What is the root of Ukraine's problem?At first glance, Russia, angry at Ukraine's commitment to the West, launched a military invasion, but this is essentially a matter of military demarcation.NATO included Ukraine in its group of "future participants" in 2008.Membership is subject to unanimity of the Member States.Among them, Zelensky, who strongly urged NATO participation, was elected president in 2019, strengthening his influence on Europe and the United States.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference after an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in April 2021, "Ukraine has the right to apply for membership".Russia strongly criticized the USS (DDG-71) Ross, a U.S. naval missile destroyer, for entering the Black Sea on June 26 in the name of military exercises.
If Ukraine joins NATO, Europe's military demarcation line will be drastically changed.It is about 920 kilometers by land from Stapa, a city near the Romanian border, to Shotoska, a Ukrainian city near the Russian border.In other words, the military demarcation line will move at least 900 kilometers.NATO has repeatedly argued that this is Ukraine's intention, and NATO is on the side of accepting it.
For example, what would Japan say if Russia announced that it would build a large-scale military, naval and air base in the northern territories?Please, it can't be helped because it's Russia's right.I don't think so.The difference is that Japan does not take military action, but Russia tries to stop it by taking military action.This is Russia's mistake and to be criticized, but the war has actually begun.
The problem seems to be Ukraine's, but it is fundamentally NATO and Russia's.Joining NATO is own to Ukraine's will, NATO said it would not send troops to Ukraine, maintaining a third-party position.In a sense,NATO want to say this is not a NATO issue, but a Ukraine issue.Is that really the case?
What is the specific way to stop Russia's invasion?Currently, the world is imposing economic sanctions on Russia.How likely is this to stop Russia?It is said that the ruble has plummeted, but it has fallen by about 20 percent.Russia's main industrial structure is resource trade, making it more difficult to default than that of processing trade-oriented countries.The key is how long Russia's economy will last, but what is the time axis?
Anti-war demonstrations are taking place around the world.While they are effective in calling for a coalition of liberal countries and arousing international public opinion, the key is how much they can influence Russian public opinion.Russia is not a country with freedom of expression, and anti-war protesters in Russia are being arrested one after another.Only the Russian people can oust Putin.But Russia's next presidential election will be 2024.
Ukraine is negotiating a ceasefire with Russia. Will this stop the war?One of the conditions Russia is proposing to Ukraine is "demilitarization."I don't think Ukraine will drink this.And, as mentioned above, it is doubtful whether Ukraine is an opportunity for Russia and a negotiating partner.Russia has always said the problem is NATO's expansion to the east.
If this is a matter of military demarcation, who is involved?That is NATO and Russia.The most fundamental solution is to reach a truce agreement through consultations between the two parties and Ukraine.But NATO will not change its position as a third party.International public opinion is moving toward anti-war movements based on sympathy for Ukraine, but another direction for international public opinion is to bring NATO to the negotiating table, regardless of whether it is good or bad.
Ukraine is not a NATO member, so I understand that Western countries will not participate in the war, but will they never sit at the negotiating table?If not, there is a high possibility that the invasion of Ukraine will not stop.
Did the introduction of attack drones into eastern Ukraine create an excuse for the Russian invasion?
Looking at the situation in Ukraine and having seen it for some time before, there are many doubts about Zelensky's foreign policy.Did he understand the implications of not having talks with Putin and not having summit talks with neighboring countries?The Japan-South Korea issue is nothing more than a diplomatic conflict that does not develop into a so-called war within the U.S.-Japan military alliance, but will it be same in this sensitive area of Ukraine?
Perhaps because he was too confident that he could join NATO only through verbal negotiations with Europe and the U.S., Ukraine's military staff announced on October 26, 2021 that they had launched an attack on forces in eastern Ukraine with an attack drone, TB2.Russia warned on 27 that the conflict could escalate.Since countries with conflicts cannot join NATO, did they physically try to end the conflict?Attack drones are said to be game changers for air warfare around the world, and their range of operations is unknown, and they are weapons that countries have been paying attention to in recent years.The cancellation of the Minsk agreement was done by Ukraine.Ninety thousand Russian troops gathered near the border just days after the launch of an attack drone into eastern Ukraine.
What would happen if President Tsai Ying-wen physically attacked an election area seeking integration with China in Taiwan and China?It only gives an excuse for China's armed invasion.Why don't Taiwan declare its independence while building close relations with Japan and the United States?This is because President Chae himself understands that he has not reached the phase of a military alliance.
It is natural that the Ukrainian people are not responsible at all.Their right to live their daily lives should be protected and their actions to kill civilians should be condemned.However, the most puzzling thing is that reports from each country are explained in a series by the story that Russia suddenly gathered 90,000 people near the border.
A clever Russian strategy How many scenarios does Putin have for Ukraine?
Putin's purpose is, as he said, to the east, NATO's non-expansion.If you think about the purpose of the Russian troops stationed near the Ukrainian border, how many scenarios are there?How many scenarios did the Biden administration attempt to respond to?
The first possibility is that if Ukraine joins NATO, it will capture Kiev, Ukraine's capital.In response, NATO countries in Europe said they would not send troops to Ukraine, and Biden's administration said they would not send troops to Ukraine.Biden's tone is "all-out war," so he would not send troops.That is, Biden tried to put off the issue by saying Ukraine would not join NATO in the near future.
From Russia's point of view, this is probably an ambiguous solution.However, if NATO forces do not enter Ukraine in the near future, Russia's immediate reason for its attack on Ukraine will be weakened, while the United States will continue to shout that Russia will attack and foreign companies withdrawed from Ukraine.Economic sanctions such as withdrawal at the civilian level have already begun.Russia claims to have withdrawn some of its troops, but the United States claims Russia is increasing its forces.Is this Biden's strategy?
Putin gets only economic blow.Therefore, the second scenario was to recognize the independence of the People's Republic of Lugansk and the People's Republic of Donetsk. We decided to bring back results.Russia is strongly opposed to Ukraine's NATO membership and is negotiating with Europe and U.S, which seemed different from case of Crimea aimed at some regions.Western countries are also responding to NATO versus Russia's all-out war.The theme is to avoid all-out war.
Putin approved the independence of pro-Russian forces after the next U.S.-Russia summit was decided and before the talks.The timing was exquisite.As a result, Putin obtained two cards before the talks.Russian troops will station in Lugansk and Donetsk to pressure the West and Ukraine.Moreover, Russia would try to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO.Since the eastern half of Ukraine is inhabited by many Russians, this method can be used in the future.Did Biden get the card?I think it's the same as the beginning.
President Putin seems to have done better this time.He succeeded in achieving results, and NATO even declared that it would not enter Ukraine.
Four Ukrainian regions apply to be annexed to Russia - An area three times the size of Kyushu will be annexed to Russia.
Four Ukrainian regions apply for annexation to Russia
A huge area will be annexed
How do we measure the war situation
The former Soviet Union had the highest number of war deaths in the world
What will be the target value at the end of the war?
Referendums were held in four Ukrainian oblasts, and on the 28th, pro-Russian factions in the four oblasts officially applied to Russian President Vladimir Putin for annexation, claiming that the majority of votes were in favor of annexation to Russia. Mr. Putin is scheduled to declare the country's annexation to Russia on the 30th. It is reported that Russia is at a disadvantage in the war, and a partial mobilization order for 300,000 people has been issued, sparking much criticism at home and abroad.
The four oblasts scheduled to be annexed to Russia are Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. The total area was 108,840 km2. This area is approximately three times the size of Kyushu, Japan. South Korea has an area of 100,200 km2, so it's probably close in area. All of this will be annexed to Russia.
Opinions on whether the war situation is superior or inferior differ depending on the scale. Should we think in terms of the number of soldiers killed or in terms of territory? As an example, in World War II, the former Soviet Union drove back the advancing Nazis and ultimately led the Allies to victory.
The former Soviet Union had the highest number of deaths in World War II, estimated at 21.8 million to 28 million people. For Germany, it's between 7 million and 9 million people. The number of Japanese war dead is said to be between 2.62 million and 3.12 million. Still, Russia is a victorious country. As a result, the Nazis retreated, Hitler committed suicide, and the war ended because of the many sacrifices made by the former Soviet Union, but in other words, the outcome of the war cannot be said to be determined by the number of deaths. .
What will be interesting to watch in the future is whether Ukraine will attempt to take back these four regions. If future ceasefire negotiations include the return of these four states, the ceasefire will likely become hopeless. If that happens, it will also include the return of Crimea. In other words, there seems to be no other way than to get it back through combat. The Russian constitution stipulates that the president may not sign treaties that would result in the surrender of national territory.
