Ukrainian military shelling of Russian military clergy ? just a false bombing, or is the battle moving into the next phase?
2022-03-26
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Bombing Russian military priests
The Russian Orthodox Church said on the ２５th that a Russian military cleric was killed in a rocket attack from the Ukrainian side near the Ukrainian border in the southwest.
Will the war enter the next phase, or is this just a false bombing, or is it an intelligence war by Russia?Ukraine is currently defending itself.This is a defense against Russian aggression.When the Ukrainian attack is directed across the border at Russia, the situation enters the next phase.A defensive battle is a war of attrition that fights against an enemy who has invaded the country while suffering domestic damage.The fact that Japan does not allow anything other than self-defense is assumed to be such a battle.Although their military facilities, towns and infrastructure are destroyed, the enemy territory remains intact, so the fighting naturally becomes inferior.If the U.N. attacks Russia this time, it will be a phase of a clear all-out war.
Will the attack continue inside Russia
After Zelensky's speech to the U.S. House of Representatives, Biden announced that he would provide Ukraine with １００ attack drones.If attack drones and missile attacks are carried out on Russia in the future, Russian civilians will be killed in large numbers.And there will be many changes in public opinion in Russia.It is worrisome how public opinion in Russia will change when its own citizens begin to suffer from the damage.
POINT The longer the battle, the more disadvantageous it is.Japan's inferiority in the Pacific War was partly due to its inability to attack the U.S. mainland at all.
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Russia Takes Control of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Southern Ukraine, IAEA Says
According to the IAEA, Russia has taken control of the Zapolyja nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine.Russia's Defense Ministry has informed the IAEA of its control.Ukraine denies it, but if Russia controls the nuclear power plant, it will be the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine.It generates half of Ukraine's nuclear power plants and generates one-fifth of Ukraine's total electricity.If Russia takes control of Zapolizia, Russia will be able to obtain Azov Sea by taking control of the area from Lugansk, Donetsk to Zapolizia and Crimea.
It is said that one of Russia's purposes is the sea.For this reason, Zaporizhzhia is a connected area between Crimea and Donetsk, so it was controlled.In this way, Odessa is located in southwestern Ukraine, with 41.9% speaking Russian.If Odessa is overpowered, Russia will be able to seize the Black Sea by conquering Donetsk, Zapolizia, Crimea, Odessa and southern Ukraine.Then you can stare at Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria, focusing on the Black Sea.
The Black Sea is said to be Russia's main goal in the war, although the military heading to Kiev is now attracting attention.
Russia has historically sought an antifreeze port.It seems that obtaining the Black Sea will be remembered in Russian history.
The U.S. - Russia negotiations are expected to take place in the U.S. - Russia intelligence war. an outpost for the summit.
US President Biden announced on the 19th that Russia would invade Ukraine within the next few days, and President Putin said that he had decided to go to war. Russia has consistently stated that it has no intention of advancing into Ukraine. In an unprecedented move, President Putin made public a conversation he had with Foreign Minister Lavrov about the possibility of dialogue with Western countries. When Russia says it has withdrawn some of its troops, the US says it is increasing its troops. The purpose of this information warfare is currently a hot topic.
The only thing that is clear is that Ukraine has been militarily cut off from the West. President Biden immediately denied participation in the war, citing World War III. The longer this problem drags on, the more the Ukrainian economy will suffer. Currently, many foreign companies are withdrawing and foreigners are evacuating abroad. President Zelenskiy has ordered Western countries to refrain from making statements that suggest Russia is about to invade. In the first place, there was a strong view that Russia's original purpose was to shake up Zelensky's government. If the pro-American government continues, Russian troops will always be stationed on Ukraine's border, and if NATO membership becomes a reality, they will also deploy nuclear weapons to authoritarian Belarus.
At the U.S.-Russia summit meeting held on the 13th, Mr. Biden asked Mr. Putin first what Russia's demands were. There is criticism that it is impractical for diplomacy to listen to the other party's demands first. Therefore, Mr. Putin immediately demanded that NATO not expand to the east.
If this trend had continued, the negotiations would have resulted in the withdrawal of Russian troops in exchange for canceling Ukraine's membership in NATO. Mr. Biden agreed to hold a second meeting with Mr. Putin. Sanctions against the Ukrainian and Russian economies have already begun due to information warfare. By strengthening this, it appears as if Mr. Biden is trying to turn his position from being at a disadvantage to an advantage.
It will not be easy for the US to gain a negotiating advantage now that it has abandoned the military option. Economic sanctions have already begun.
Has Ukraine given up NATO membership? Zelensky says NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.
Zelensky said he no longer wants Ukraine to join NATO.This is one of the reasons why Russia invaded its pro-Western neighbors.NATO also said it was not ready to accept Ukraine.He said on February 24 he was ready to "compromise" on the status of two pro-Russian territories that President Vladimir Putin acknowledged as independent just before the invasion.Zelensky told NATO members through an interpreter that he did not want to be president of a "kneeling country."
Western countries have consistently said they will not send troops to Ukraine.In response, Zelensky repeatedly appealed for NATO cooperation, but he calmly considered the current situation and thought it would be difficult to join NATO.At the same time, Zelensky is demanding Ukraine's security from both NATO and Russia, and how to achieve this will be a challenge.Have there been any examples of NATO-Russia agreements in the past?In other words, considering what would happen if one side broke its promise, we would have to be very cautious about the NATO-Russia deal.
In any case, the only solution is to protect Ukraine's security.How to achieve this is the key to solving this problem.In other words, Zelensky has begun to agree.
What kind of response will NATO and Russia make to President Zelensky's message?
How will the Ukraine issue end?What's the possibility of a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine?Is there a way to solve it?
What is the root of Ukraine's problem?At first glance, Russia, angry at Ukraine's commitment to the West, launched a military invasion, but this is essentially a matter of military demarcation.NATO included Ukraine in its group of "future participants" in 2008.Membership is subject to unanimity of the Member States.Among them, Zelensky, who strongly urged NATO participation, was elected president in 2019, strengthening his influence on Europe and the United States.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference after an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in April 2021, "Ukraine has the right to apply for membership".Russia strongly criticized the USS (DDG-71) Ross, a U.S. naval missile destroyer, for entering the Black Sea on June 26 in the name of military exercises.
If Ukraine joins NATO, Europe's military demarcation line will be drastically changed.It is about 920 kilometers by land from Stapa, a city near the Romanian border, to Shotoska, a Ukrainian city near the Russian border.In other words, the military demarcation line will move at least 900 kilometers.NATO has repeatedly argued that this is Ukraine's intention, and NATO is on the side of accepting it.
For example, what would Japan say if Russia announced that it would build a large-scale military, naval and air base in the northern territories?Please, it can't be helped because it's Russia's right.I don't think so.The difference is that Japan does not take military action, but Russia tries to stop it by taking military action.This is Russia's mistake and to be criticized, but the war has actually begun.
The problem seems to be Ukraine's, but it is fundamentally NATO and Russia's.Joining NATO is own to Ukraine's will, NATO said it would not send troops to Ukraine, maintaining a third-party position.In a sense,NATO want to say this is not a NATO issue, but a Ukraine issue.Is that really the case?
What is the specific way to stop Russia's invasion?Currently, the world is imposing economic sanctions on Russia.How likely is this to stop Russia?It is said that the ruble has plummeted, but it has fallen by about 20 percent.Russia's main industrial structure is resource trade, making it more difficult to default than that of processing trade-oriented countries.The key is how long Russia's economy will last, but what is the time axis?
Anti-war demonstrations are taking place around the world.While they are effective in calling for a coalition of liberal countries and arousing international public opinion, the key is how much they can influence Russian public opinion.Russia is not a country with freedom of expression, and anti-war protesters in Russia are being arrested one after another.Only the Russian people can oust Putin.But Russia's next presidential election will be 2024.
Ukraine is negotiating a ceasefire with Russia. Will this stop the war?One of the conditions Russia is proposing to Ukraine is "demilitarization."I don't think Ukraine will drink this.And, as mentioned above, it is doubtful whether Ukraine is an opportunity for Russia and a negotiating partner.Russia has always said the problem is NATO's expansion to the east.
If this is a matter of military demarcation, who is involved?That is NATO and Russia.The most fundamental solution is to reach a truce agreement through consultations between the two parties and Ukraine.But NATO will not change its position as a third party.International public opinion is moving toward anti-war movements based on sympathy for Ukraine, but another direction for international public opinion is to bring NATO to the negotiating table, regardless of whether it is good or bad.
Ukraine is not a NATO member, so I understand that Western countries will not participate in the war, but will they never sit at the negotiating table?If not, there is a high possibility that the invasion of Ukraine will not stop.
Negotiations on Ukraine broke down.Russia's goal is to neutralize and demilitarize Ukraine.NATO provides logistical support.
Negotiations on a ceasefire between Ukrainian and Russian delegations ended for five hours in Gomeri, southeastern Belarus, near the border with Ukraine.Ukraine has already notified of unconditional negotiations, and what this means is that it does not object to the recognition of independence of Lugansk and Donetsk.Russia seems to have offered conditions.
Russia's conditions are "neutralization" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine.This may seem like a peaceful settlement, but it is a completely different request."Neutralization" means Ukraine's non-NATO membership, and Ukraine's current intentions may be put aside but it would be accepted.However, "unarmed" means that there is no military, and that having an army is a legitimate right under international law included in a country's right to live, which means that it will no longer be a sovereign state.In other words, Russia has offered unacceptable conditions.As a result, the negotiations broke down and the negotiations were decided to negotiate next time.
Russia's original demand is NATO's non-expansion to the east.This has not changed since the beginning.So why can't Ukraine compromise on the terms of "neutralization" that it can accept?This also seems to mean that there will be no will of Russia to negotiat with Ukraine.Russia has taken military action against the possibility of NATO's eastern expansion to Ukraine and the deployment of NATO forces near the Russian border.In other words, it is fundamentally a matter of NATO and Russia.
NATO has consistently said that it is up to the will of the applicant countries to join NATO.In other words, NATO's passive stance is that it is the will of the applicant countries rather than the will of NATO.However, the war is continuing.Perhaps what Russia wants to negotiate is NATO troops.NATO wants further commitment to the non-expansion of the East.In this sense, Ukraine may not be Russia's negotiating partner.NATO is trying to stop the Russian military by imposing economic sanctions and arousing international public opinion.
If NATO agrees on non-expansion to the East ,and Ukraine as a neutral country, Ukraine's sovereignty and peace will be maintained, and both Russia and NATO will have important buffer states.If NATO or Russia sends troops to Ukraine, it will be a war between NATO and Russia.Then the military balance will be maintained.Indeed, for NATO, Ukraine's membership has little advantage.Therefore, Western countries immediately announced that they would not send troops to Ukraine to avoid war.
In Japanese history, there is a Tianjin Treaty signed with Qing in 1885.This means that the two sides will withdraw from the Korean Peninsula in order to ease tensions between Japan and China after the Kim Ok-kyun Gapsin Incident.In other words, the Korean Peninsula is considered a neutral military zone of military neutrality.As a result, Queen Min, who failed to suppress the Donghak Party's rebellion on the Korean Peninsula, asked Qing for reinforcements, which triggered the Japan-Qing War.Without such a blunder, Ukraine could become an independent country, and on the contrary, a stable and protected country between Russia and NATO.
Russia's request is simple and nothing has changed.NATO Western countries have become third parties to economic sanctions without participating in the war.Will NATO negotiate with Russia?
