A clever Russian strategy How many scenarios does Putin have for Ukraine?
2022-02-23
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Putin's several strategies.
Putin's purpose is, as he said, to the east, NATO's non-expansion.If you think about the purpose of the Russian troops stationed near the Ukrainian border, how many scenarios are there?How many scenarios did the Biden administration attempt to respond to?
The first possibility is that if Ukraine joins NATO, it will capture Kiev, Ukraine's capital.In response, NATO countries in Europe said they would not send troops to Ukraine, and Biden's administration said they would not send troops to Ukraine.Biden's tone is "all-out war," so he would not send troops.That is, Biden tried to put off the issue by saying Ukraine would not join NATO in the near future.
A vague solution and the crisis of war
From Russia's point of view, this is probably an ambiguous solution.However, if NATO forces do not enter Ukraine in the near future, Russia's immediate reason for its attack on Ukraine will be weakened, while the United States will continue to shout that Russia will attack and foreign companies withdrawed from Ukraine.Economic sanctions such as withdrawal at the civilian level have already begun.Russia claims to have withdrawn some of its troops, but the United States claims Russia is increasing its forces.Is this Biden's strategy?
Second scenario performed
Putin gets only economic blow.Therefore, the second scenario was to recognize the independence of the People's Republic of Lugansk and the People's Republic of Donetsk. We decided to bring back results.Russia is strongly opposed to Ukraine's NATO membership and is negotiating with Europe and U.S, which seemed different from case of Crimea aimed at some regions.Western countries are also responding to NATO versus Russia's all-out war.The theme is to avoid all-out war.
The negotiation card will be sent to Russia
Putin approved the independence of pro-Russian forces after the next U.S.-Russia summit was decided and before the talks.The timing was exquisite.As a result, Putin obtained two cards before the talks.Russian troops will station in Lugansk and Donetsk to pressure the West and Ukraine.Moreover, Russia would try to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO.Since the eastern half of Ukraine is inhabited by many Russians, this method can be used in the future.Did Biden get the card?I think it's the same as the beginning.
POINT President Putin seems to have done better this time.He succeeded in achieving results, and NATO even declared that it would not enter Ukraine.
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Attacks on Ukrainian military installations began.Russia claims to be a peacekeeping mission.Japan should improve its ability to attack enemy bases.
Russia is attacking Ukrainian military facilities throughout Ukraine.Russia's Defense Ministry said it has attacked more than 80 Ukrainian military facilities, including 11 airports.Military facilities in the suburbs of Kiev were attacked by cruise missiles, as well as Kramatorsk, Ukraine's eastern stronghold, and military facilities in the south.
Putin justified the attack, saying, "There is no alternative," adding, "We are safe because we have not attacked the private sector."Russia's defense of the two states, Lugansk and Donetsk, is believed to have been based on the premise that Ukrainian troops will be dispatched to prevent the attack.Currently, pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are controlling a part of the two states and trying to control all of the two states and Russia support them in the rear.
Japan, led by Europe and the U.S., has also announced economic sanctions, but economic sanctions cannot physically stop Russia's march.Ukrainian President Zelensky said he would "consider" breaking off diplomatic relations with Russia, but this would be meaningless.At the same time, he said he would "defend Ukraine" and did not mention war with Russia.Perhaps just a matter of time, the two eastern states will belong to Russia.Ukraine's military facilities have been destroyed and Russia's military facilities have remained intact.
The Japanese government has also expressed its opinion that the Japanese Defense Minister is within the scope of self-defense, but there are still many objections.In other words, we can see in real time how unrealistic and vulnerable only doing defense is.
military aggression is a physical problem, and economic sanctions are just economic sanctions.The ongoing problem is the issue of military aggression.
Did the introduction of attack drones into eastern Ukraine create an excuse for the Russian invasion?
Looking at the situation in Ukraine and having seen it for some time before, there are many doubts about Zelensky's foreign policy.Did he understand the implications of not having talks with Putin and not having summit talks with neighboring countries?The Japan-South Korea issue is nothing more than a diplomatic conflict that does not develop into a so-called war within the U.S.-Japan military alliance, but will it be same in this sensitive area of Ukraine?
Perhaps because he was too confident that he could join NATO only through verbal negotiations with Europe and the U.S., Ukraine's military staff announced on October 26, 2021 that they had launched an attack on forces in eastern Ukraine with an attack drone, TB2.Russia warned on 27 that the conflict could escalate.Since countries with conflicts cannot join NATO, did they physically try to end the conflict?Attack drones are said to be game changers for air warfare around the world, and their range of operations is unknown, and they are weapons that countries have been paying attention to in recent years.The cancellation of the Minsk agreement was done by Ukraine.Ninety thousand Russian troops gathered near the border just days after the launch of an attack drone into eastern Ukraine.
What would happen if President Tsai Ying-wen physically attacked an election area seeking integration with China in Taiwan and China?It only gives an excuse for China's armed invasion.Why don't Taiwan declare its independence while building close relations with Japan and the United States?This is because President Chae himself understands that he has not reached the phase of a military alliance.
It is natural that the Ukrainian people are not responsible at all.Their right to live their daily lives should be protected and their actions to kill civilians should be condemned.However, the most puzzling thing is that reports from each country are explained in a series by the story that Russia suddenly gathered 90,000 people near the border.
Daily cost of invasion of Ukraine is 2.4 trillion yen - Compared with the cost of fighting terrorism.
It is estimated that Russia's daily war expenses due to the invasion of Ukraine will exceed 2 trillion yen. This seems to be based on an analysis by Britain, but it is said that Russia's economic sanctions will come into effect and the war will not be able to continue.
In September 2021, a research team at the University of Brown compiled a report that the cost of a series of wars on terrorism would amount to $ 8 trillion (about 880 trillion yen) in the 20 years after the 9/11 attacks in the United States. .. The breakdown is $ 2.3 trillion (about 250 trillion yen) in Afghanistan and Pakistan, $ 2.1 trillion (about 230 trillion yen) in Iraq and Syria, and $ 2.2 trillion in medical treatment for veterans. It is (about 240 trillion yen). Estimating at 480 trillion yen excluding medical expenses for veterans, it will be 65.7 billion yen per day. If the cost of 230 trillion yen in Iraq and Syria is 8 years and 9 months, it will be about 720 yen per day. It looks like some digits are different.
Of course, if the number of soldiers put in, the fighters used, missiles, the price of ammunition, etc. differ greatly, the war cost will change significantly, but what is the difference in this war cost when those factors are excluded? It also seems to be effective in the sense that it shakes Russian public opinion. If the domestic economy is exhausted due to economic sanctions while spending a huge amount of war expenses per day, it is natural that criticism of the expenses caused by the war will arise. In any case, various information warfare is currently taking place.
Russia criticizes Romania for lending an airport as participating in the war.Romania is a member of NATO.
Democracy has weakened.Under the pressure of China's economy, liberal countries are only fighting defense.The world is trembling with China's expansion and with Russia's ongoing military aggression.This means that solidarity between democracies has weakened.At least there was strong unity during the Cold War in liberal countries, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, liberal countries focused on their economic activities.The loss of the enemy means peace.With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Union of Eastern European Union collapsed.Russia and Belarus are now continuing to defend the former Soviet forces of the Soviet Union.Is Russia now the Soviet Union?No, not the Soviet Union, but Russia.So what is going on now?Is the world asking itself this question?
What is the significance of NATO's existence?The world had lived half a century under tension that even a single shell could lead to World War III, confronting a military alliance called Warsaw Treaty Organization had centered on the Soviet Union.Biden repeatedly said, "We will not wage war with Russia because World War III will come."Romania was criticized by Russia.In other words, if Rumania continues to lend airports to Ukraine. military, it will be considered as joining a war.Romania is a member of NATO.What would happen if Romania were bombarded by Russia?In this case, we would surprise if Biden says, "I won't participate in the war because World War III will come." And I wondered what the Cold War was.
There is no end to the Russian invasion.Putin said there would be a ceasefire only if Ukraine accepted all Russian demands.This can also be seen as an ultimatum to the negotiations.Economic sanctions have backfired in Ukraine's invasion.Russia wants to compensate for the loss of economic sanctions through aggression.
Putin said, "Economic sanctions in developed countries are like declaring war."Ironically, Russia doesn't seem to want to stop the invasion in the future.
The 400 - strong Zelensky assassination unit was deployed in Kiev, Ukraine.What is the possibility of using strategic nuclear weapons? Russian President Vladimir Putin sent mercenaries from Africa to Kiev in order to kill 23 key figures, including Ukrainian President Zelensky.The Times reported on Feb 27.Putin is known to had sent 400 of his closest Russian mercenary agents to Kiev from Belarus.The unit uses mobile phones and other devices to "always know where President Zelensky is and is waiting for a green light from the client."
The murder squad is a dangerous story.But Ukraine's statement that the Russian army failed to invade Kiev.Russian army is stopped to be stuck 30 kilometers from Kiev.However, according to British intelligence, 400 assassins have already entered Kiev.Under this strategy, even if Europe and the United States announce that they will provide weapons to Ukraine, such weapons will not help much.The enemy is watching for a chance to kill Zelensky without knowing where the enemy is.
Another concern is that Putin has issued a special alert to the nuclear deterrent force.The order is to prepare for the use of nuclear weapons, but there are many kinds of nuclear weapons, and there are strategic nuclear weapons that can cause nuclear explosions and destroy small area.It is small enough to be equipped with fighter missiles, so there is no need to hit correctly the enemy.Aircraft carriers can destroy if they fall near them, and even in land warfare, if dropped in areas where enemy battalions are located, the troops will be destroyed.
There are some questions whether the Russian military will fail to attack Kiev, the closest neighboring country.If so, the Russian army will not be able to subdue any country.If we hear that Russian troops are withdrawing, we will think about the possibility of using strategic nuclear weapons.
It seems that Ukraine and Russia are currently negotiating a ceasefire on the Belarus border, but according to British intelligence, Russia is not willing to accept the ceasefire at all.
