Continued invasion of Ukraine - The Iraq War lasted for ８ years and ９ months with the participation of more than ４０ countries.
2022-04-06
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Invasion that does not end after one month
There is a view that Russia is not as strong as expected as it was revealed in this invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has a population of about ４４ million and the regular army has a population of about ２１０,０００. Russia has a population of １４０ million and the Russian army has a population of ９００,０００. Ukraine's GDP is ５５th in the world, lower than Iraq. And in terms of location, it can be said that the Russian army is most likely to invade because it is a neighboring country. Belarus and Russia can also invade the capital Kyiv. Even so, even one month after the start of the war, it has not been suppressed. It is attracting attention in the sense that it is possible to fight so far just by providing weapons from developed countries.
Long-term Iraq War
The Iraq War lasted eight years and nine months. An airstrike on Baghdad by the US military was carried out on March ２０, ２００３, and Saddam Hussein was captured on December １３, ２００３. More than ４０ countries, including the United States and other developed countries, allies, and friendly countries, have made military intervention in Iraq. Still, it took eight years and nine months to conquer the whole of Iraq. What is different from Ukraine is that Iraq and its neighbors Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have not participated in the operation, and the countries that have conducted military intervention are dispatched to distant places.
The key is at what stage the ceasefire agreement is reached
After the capture of Hussein, destabilization in Iraq and guerrilla warfare continued. Even if we count the capture of Hussein, it will be about ９ months. Without nuclear weapons, it would take so much time to conquer a country even with modern weapons. And the common keyword is "national defense". In this sense, the Ukrainian war is likely to be prolonged if the goal is to control the whole country. On the other hand, Russia has said from the beginning that it is not thinking of controlling the whole of Ukraine. At what stage will the ceasefire agreement be reached? It presupposes that Russia's original goals will be achieved to some extent. There are many difficulties in the current negotiations as to how much Ukraine can accept Russia's demands.
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The U.S. - Russia negotiations are expected to take place in the U.S. - Russia intelligence war. an outpost for the summit.
US President Biden announced on the 19th that Russia would invade Ukraine within the next few days, and President Putin said that he had decided to go to war. Russia has consistently stated that it has no intention of advancing into Ukraine. In an unprecedented move, President Putin made public a conversation he had with Foreign Minister Lavrov about the possibility of dialogue with Western countries. When Russia says it has withdrawn some of its troops, the US says it is increasing its troops. The purpose of this information warfare is currently a hot topic.
The only thing that is clear is that Ukraine has been militarily cut off from the West. President Biden immediately denied participation in the war, citing World War III. The longer this problem drags on, the more the Ukrainian economy will suffer. Currently, many foreign companies are withdrawing and foreigners are evacuating abroad. President Zelenskiy has ordered Western countries to refrain from making statements that suggest Russia is about to invade. In the first place, there was a strong view that Russia's original purpose was to shake up Zelensky's government. If the pro-American government continues, Russian troops will always be stationed on Ukraine's border, and if NATO membership becomes a reality, they will also deploy nuclear weapons to authoritarian Belarus.
At the U.S.-Russia summit meeting held on the 13th, Mr. Biden asked Mr. Putin first what Russia's demands were. There is criticism that it is impractical for diplomacy to listen to the other party's demands first. Therefore, Mr. Putin immediately demanded that NATO not expand to the east.
If this trend had continued, the negotiations would have resulted in the withdrawal of Russian troops in exchange for canceling Ukraine's membership in NATO. Mr. Biden agreed to hold a second meeting with Mr. Putin. Sanctions against the Ukrainian and Russian economies have already begun due to information warfare. By strengthening this, it appears as if Mr. Biden is trying to turn his position from being at a disadvantage to an advantage.
It will not be easy for the US to gain a negotiating advantage now that it has abandoned the military option. Economic sanctions have already begun.
The CIA asked Zelensky to flee the country.Zelensky, who stayed in Ukraine, became a hero.
The U.S. told through the CIA to Zelensky You are Russia's "first goal".The Washington Post (WP) reported that the CIA told that we are ready to evacuate you and your family abroad.CIA Director William Burns is known to have mentioned the above issues to President Zelensky during his visit to Ukraine.In response, Zelensky said he would remain in Ukraine, and in Korea, he was called a hero with courage.Now, let's look at the CIA's request again.This encourages the president of a country to seek asylum abroad.In which world will the president of a war-torn or dangerous country defect abroad?The last time such incidents occurred in Afghanistan, it was clearly considered a renunciation of power.Afghan President Gani fled the Taliban's invasion and fled the country, and the Taliban quickly overpowered Afghanistan.
The president has strong authority.The most important thing is martial law and the authority of the commander-in-chief of the army.If martial law is issued, it will be possible to impose extra-legal domestic regulations.As commander-in-chief of the military, there are many operations that cannot be carried out without the president's permission.In other words, the United States urged Zelensky to relinquish these powers and flee abroad.Does this mean that the president should resign and end the war?
America has been in a third-party position on the Ukurina issue since the beginning.NATO countries responded the same way early on, announcing that they would not send U.S. troops to Ukraine.
Putin issued a special alert to the nuclear deterrent force.Putin's apparent mistake in his later years.nuclear intimidation.
Putin ordered strategic nuclear deterrent forces to be "special alert.He said "This is because Western countries have taken "unfriendly action" against Russia.
This is a far-fetched idea, and NATO countries are strongly criticizing it.Putin's previous invasion of Ukraine has been carefully calculated, and Putin has achieved his many goals successfully.In addition, Putin ordered its nuclear deterrent forces against G7 and other countries which would exclude Russia from the SWIFT and other economy .It is a special warning, it simply means that nuclear weapons should be prepared to be used at any time.
Russia has not suffered any military damage in their country.The Ukrainian army is responsible for the internal defense of Ukraine, and the death of Russian soldiers in Ukraine have been caused by Ukrainian troops in Ukraine.The order for the nuclear deterrent forces is to prepare nuclear weapons in response to economic sanctions.
This is clearly Putin's mistake.Putin's personal isolation from the international community will be more serious than Russia's isolation.Putin is rumored to be aiming for a fifth term in Russia's 2024 presidential election, but even if he becomes president, no heads of state may negotiate with Putin.
This time, it is seen as a nuclear threat to the international community, and it can be such a big mistake that doubts about Putin's personality arise.
Can economic sanctions stop Russia's war?The cause of the war has not yet been discussed.
President Vladimir Putin has no intention of stopping the war amid economic sanctions imposed on Russia.In a telephone conversation with French President Jacques Macron, he said, "We will not stop attacking Ukraine until Russia has achieved its goals."Many media outlets, including Japan, predict that Russia will eventually end the war due to economic sanctions, but this is not the case.What is needed mainly to wage war is weapons to fight, fuel to power them, and food for soldiers.If these are missing, it will be difficult to continue the war.The idea that it is economically disadvantageous and profitable is a prewar discussion.
I want you to remember Japan's past history.Japan was surrounded by ABCDs.This is a siege of A=America (USA), B=Britain (UK), C=China (China), and D=Dutch (Netherlands).As a result, Japan was blocked from ironwork, oil, and food, which were essential for the continuation of the war.What was the result?The Great East Asian War and the Pacific War began.The economic blockade is threatening the survival of the country, and Japan had been trying to build an Asian economic bloc by further promoting the idea of a "Great East Asian Co-prosperity Zone."The idea of a great East Asian co-prosperity zone was to expel Western colonial rule in Asia, and economic sanctions would compensate for the loss caused by developing the development of the great East Asian co-prosperity zone.
When it comes to weapons, Russia is one of the world's leading military powers, and there are a lot of weapons already manufactured.In terms of fuel, Russia ranked seventh in the world in oil reserves and overtaken Saudi Arabia in 2010 as the world's largest oil producer.In terms of food, Russia's grain self-sufficiency rate is 124%.In other words, what is needed to continue the war is mainly available in Russia.
Mining is also active, producing 32% iron, 31% nickel, 27% tin, 21% cobalt, and 14% uranium of global production, as well as copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, titanium, gold, platinum, and diamond.Moreover, exports of fuel and energy products, mainly oil and natural gas, account for two-thirds of Russia's total exports, and European countries cannot engage in economic activities without purchasing natural gas from Russia.Therefore, this part is not subject to economic sanctions.So, will this stop the war?
Even in the past, the only way to stop the war was to defeat the enemy or to eliminate the cause of the war.Economic sanctions did not stop Japan's military it had little resources at that time.
Looking at the current situation in Russia, it seems that they have no intention of stopping the invasion of Ukraine.Attempts to persuade Putin should continue, but it seems impossible to stop the march unless the fundamental problem would be solved.
Biden Emphasizes Polish Defense - Defense as NATO's Right to Collective Self - Defense.
In a meeting with President Duda in Poland on Wednesday, Biden stressed that as a member of NATO, he will take responsibility for the defense of Poland in connected with Ukraine."We see Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty as a sacred obligation.I don't care if you trust me," he said.Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the right to collective self-defense of NATO members.Shouldn't he have issued a statement immediately after the invasion of Ukraine instead of making a promise at the summit?
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty
Contracting States agree to regard armed attacks on one or more Contracting States in Europe or North America as attacks on all Contracting States.Consequently, the Contracting States agree that, in the event of such an armed attack, each Party shall assist the attacked Party by exercising the right of individual or collective self-defense permitted under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, individually and immediately.
Any such armed attack and any resulting action shall be immediately reported to the Security Council.Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken necessary measures to restore and maintain international peace and security.
This will allow NATO to exercise its right to collective self-defense against attacks on member states.This is why NATO is a powerful military alliance.After Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, it should have been the first to refer to this Article 5.By the way, after Trump took office, there was widespread concern that member states would not fulfill their defense obligations unless they increased their defense spending, but in June, at a joint press conference with Romanian President Johannes, he declared his support for Article 5.
