The exchange won rate has not stopped falling.The No Japan movement is a campaign to buy domestic products.Nothing will change under the chaebol economy.
2022-02-08
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South Korean Industrial structure vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations
South Korea's trade dependence on GDP is more than ７０ percent, including the service sector.In other words, domestic demand is low and foreign exchange is directly affected.Even if foreign demand is received, it does not circulate at home and flows abroad.If the person who made the purchase contract increases the dollar by ５% at the time of payment, the payment will increase by ５%.The won-dollar exchange rate is １,２００ won, but it has been hovering around １,２００ won in recent days.
Default due to bulk purchases
In order to maintain international competitiveness, chaebol companies such as SAMSUNG buy parts in bulk and produce them in bulk to reduce costs and sell them at low prices.In this case, large debts are always carried out and large payments are repeated, and problems arise when the value of the currency changes significantly during that period.This is the so-called default.Under these circumstances, the won's international credit rating has not increased, and South Korean companies can trade in dollars depending on the L/C of Japanese commercial banks.
South Korea experienced two foreign exchange crises in １９９７ and ２００８.No country will experience two foreign exchange crises in １０ years.In other words, South Korea's industrial form is vulnerable, and in short, it is trading beyond its currency capabilities.
Considering what Moon Jae In wants to do, the real intention is to socialize, control the currency, and stabilize the value of the won.Do you think the boycott is a campaign to buy domestic goods if it is reversed?
MEMO South Korea is listed by the FRB as a currency manipulator.
Only chaebol companies can grow
The reason why domestic demand is not expanding is the existence of chaebol companies.The role of chaebol companies in driving the Korean economy is important, but on the other hand, investment in chaebol companies is concentrated and other industries are not growing.In addition to the businesses run by chaebol companies, how can Korean companies grow globally?It can only be done with its own money without investment.
The boycott Japan fundamentally solves nothing
This structure will not change even if there is a boycott Japan.As a currency manipulator, even if it leaves the liberal economy, it will not change.It is necessary for the government to take the lead in fostering domestic demand and to attract investment in what industries to foster domestic small and medium-sized enterprises.The boycott Japan does not mean that South Korean domestic companies' sales will increase.
POINT Moon Jae In's term of office is less than three months, and criticism from his country seems to be gathering.I think it's quite late from Japan view.
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Yun Seok - yue's manifesto aims to attract and circulate capital through a free economy.Will the National Assembly become a burden that hinders this?
South Korea is wavering between pro-China and pro-US
Original regime change through social policy
A country that thinks about what is better
Yin Seok-yue promotes free economy
Promoting free competition within the country and moving towards CPTPP
Legal development by the Diet is hopeless
Is South Korea wondering whether it should join China, which has achieved growth in recent years, or join the camp of free nations such as Japan, the United States, and Europe? I guess it's a question of which is better, but it seems like a very polarizing choice.
The Moon Jae-in administration completely abandoned its pride as a democratic country without hesitation and spent five years desperately trying to join China and North Korea, a country that violates human rights at its worst, but unfortunately there was no result. Ta.
The new president, Yun Seok-Yeol, has the exact opposite policy, aiming for Korea to be a member of the Japan-U.S. and liberal camp. This seems to be the composition of the right-wing and left-wing forces in South Korea.
The left tends to seek the enhancement of social institutions, while the right tends to seek free competition and liberal democracy. This is a question of the balance between social welfare and liberal economics, and a debate about competition versus distribution. This is an issue to be debated within a democratic country, and can be said to be a universal frame.
America's two-party system is very easy to understand. Republicans and Democrats can be broadly divided on the question of whether taxes should be primarily used for public welfare, or whether they should reduce taxes in the first place and increase competitiveness in a free economy. It is also expressed in the framework of big government and small government.
The choice of domestic social policy is not a question of which country will benefit you by following, but rather a matter of foreign policy. Prior to Japan's annexation of South Korea, there was intense conflict between pro-Russian and pro-Japanese factions on the Korean peninsula. Is nothing different from that era? Another characteristic of South Korea is that its foreign policy is also its domestic policy.
Looking at Yun Seok-Yue's manifesto from the perspective of economic policy, his economic policy is to bring back the capital that fled South Korea under the Moon Jae-in administration.
In particular, the focus is not on where to focus investment and foster industry, but rather the policy appears to be aimed at attracting investors by abolishing regulations and promoting a free economy and free competition.
It appears that the plan is to aim to join the CPTPP and other liberal nation frameworks based on this liberal economic frame, but in order to realize this, it will be necessary to obstruct the various free competitions that exist within Korea. Legislation must be put in place to abolish the regulations that apply.
This is the job of the National Diet, the legislative branch, but the opposition Democratic Party of Japan still holds nearly 60% of the seats. In other words, there are many hurdles for the time being in the economic policy advocated by Yun Seok-Yeol and cooperation with liberal countries. In other words, we will have to wait for the 2024 general election.
Last One Mile Support In addition to Taiwan and Vietnam, Japan will provide vaccines through COVAX: Cambodia, Laos, East Timor, Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Fiji, Kiribati, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon, Tonga, Vanuatu, Iran.
New target country of "Last One Mile Support" in cooperation with UNICEF: Ghana, Senegal, Mozambique, Malawi, Palestine, the Philippines and Mongolia."Last One Mile Support" will cover 59 countries and regions.
Korea is not a developing country, so it is likely that it will not be able to provide vaccines because now Korea is in the midst of the No Japan movement and Japan respected it and their passion.
South Korea's Next Presidential Candidate "I Love the Japanese People" and Continuous Anti - Japanese Remarks.
Lee Jae-myung, a candidate running for South Korea's next presidential election, said on November 25th, ``I love the Japanese people and respect their civility,'' and added, ``Japan invaded South Korea and attacked dozens of people. "He has a history of dominating and expropriating Korea for many years." "He is still dreaming of becoming a military power and is provoking that Dokdo, which South Korea effectively controls, is his own territory. He is also clear about historical issues. It doesn't seem like he is sincerely remorseful, so of course I'm worried."
Lee Jae-myung, an anti-Japanese force who said he loves the Japanese people. What followed was a series of incoherent statements.
First of all, he does not seem to understand the root of the current problems in Japan-Korea relations. This is not a historical issue from the beginning. The problem is that South Korea was taking advantage of its position as a friendly country and taking advantage of its position as a white country to divert strategic materials imported from Japan that require strict control to third countries. .
Then there is the issue of the state of the abrogation of the claims agreement, which is the basis of Japan-South Korea diplomatic relations, by reviving individual claims and issuing compensation orders to the Japanese government and Japanese companies in domestic courts. Without understanding that this is not a problem of the past but an ongoing one, saying that we love the Japanese people will not improve Japan-Korea relations.
The five years of Moon Jae-in created an irreparable rift in Japan-Korea relations. Do they think that if the anti-Japanese mood as a national sentiment subsides, things will be manageable on the surface? Japan has given up on relations with South Korea due to anti-Japanese activities since Moon Jae-in took office, and has continued to build relations with other neighboring countries.
Commitments and work with his new partner are occurring one after another. If you don't fully understand these things, you'll just think it's a childish and shallow idea.
Japan has been putting up with South Korea for many years, but since it was excluded from the white list, it has created partners other than South Korea. Will South Korea ever return to being our most important neighbor?
The South Korean government is lying about holding the Japan - Korea summit meeting - A country that lies about the results of diplomatic negotiations It is full of lies to begin with.
Japan-Korea summit meeting is another lie
Japan reacts to lies
Korea prioritizes pride
What all historical questions have in common
Kim Tae-hyo, First Deputy Director-General of the National Security Office of the South Korean presidential palace, announced that they had agreed to hold a summit meeting in conjunction with the General Debate Address at the United Nations General Assembly, which will be held in New York from the 20th of this month, and that they are coordinating the time. According to the presidential office, the meeting is expected to last about 30 minutes, and the agenda has not yet been decided. Regarding the announcement that Japan had agreed to hold a Japan-South Korea summit, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said at a press conference on the same day, ``Nothing has been decided at this point.'' What I personally noticed about this issue was the difference in the reactions of the people of the two countries.
Japanese people's reaction is largely a reaction to their government blatantly lying about the content of diplomatic negotiations between countries. Up until now, the American and Japanese governments have often denied that the South Korean government has agreed to diplomatic negotiations, even though they have not, or that they have agreed on the direction of the deal. I have the impression that this is the case again, but what Japanese people react to is the act of lying.
Looking at South Korea's reaction, they told us not to flatter Japan and why they wanted to hold a Japan-Korea summit meeting. Don't embarrass the Korean people. That is the criticism. In other words, even though there are various circumstances surrounding this issue with the Korean government, the people of both countries are focusing on completely different aspects of the same fact.
This problem seems to be related to historical awareness. I can't help but feel that there are completely different emotions about the same fact, or that the facts are changed by those emotions. Not only historical understanding, but even the details of the most recent negotiations between the two countries are being fabricated.
With only three days left before the South Korean presidential election, what is the contrast between the two manifestos and Japan - South Korea relations?
The Korean presidential election is only three days away.According to the latest opinion polls, the two seem to be at odds with each other's throats.In the past presidential election, it seems that the dominant candidate in the last poll won the election.Generally speaking, voter turnout is not the only way to go up.If the turnout is low, it will benefit the conservatives as well as the current administration.If voter turnout rises, those who are not usually interested in politics will participate in politics, which will be motivated to change the status quo.
Moon Jae In was working hard on how to get floating votes.This is the minimum wage increase and the feminist movement.And, it succeeded in winning floating votes for young people and women.The result is the worst policy, but the 2022 manifesto shows that there are many contrasting and worrying parts.Lee Jae-myung said, "It includes correcting Moon Jae In's mistakes.Specific industrial investments will create jobs, and urban functions would be dispersed as a countermeasure soaring land prices in Seoul.Yoon Seok-yeol, on the other hand, advocates attracting and increasing investment through the free economy.This is in contrast to industrial investment by large governments and job creation by small governments.
Lee Jae-myeong is pro-China and Yoon Seok-yeol is pro-U.S. in terms of diplomacy and defense.Yoon Seok-yeol mentioned the deployment of additional Saad.This means that the agreement with China will be scrapped.This means that China will confront China, but China is likely to impose economic sanctions on the Korean economy, which is highly dependent on China.Lee Jae-myeong did not mention the relationship with Japan, and Yoon demanded an apology and compensation from Japan.Does this mean that Japan-South Korea relations will be included in the U.S.-Japan relationship, rather than immediately restoring Japan-South Korea relations?In any case, if the right wins, there will be room for future negotiations from the Japanese side.However, relations between Japan and South Korea will end again when they demand an apology and compensation for the Japanese Military comfort woman issue.
No matter which candidate wins, I don't think I can expect much about Japan-South Korea relations.
