With only three days left before the South Korean presidential election, what is the contrast between the two manifestos and Japan - South Korea relations?
2022-03-06
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Korea's presidential election is just around the corner
The Korean presidential election is only three days away.According to the latest opinion polls, the two seem to be at odds with each other's throats.In the past presidential election, it seems that the dominant candidate in the last poll won the election.Generally speaking, voter turnout is not the only way to go up.If the turnout is low, it will benefit the conservatives as well as the current administration.If voter turnout rises, those who are not usually interested in politics will participate in politics, which will be motivated to change the status quo.
Floating Moon Jae In
Moon Jae In was working hard on how to get floating votes.This is the minimum wage increase and the feminist movement.And, it succeeded in winning floating votes for young people and women.The result is the worst policy, but the ２０２２ manifesto shows that there are many contrasting and worrying parts.Lee Jae-myung said, "It includes correcting Moon Jae In's mistakes.Specific industrial investments will create jobs, and urban functions would be dispersed as a countermeasure soaring land prices in Seoul.Yoon Seok-yeol, on the other hand, advocates attracting and increasing investment through the free economy.This is in contrast to industrial investment by large governments and job creation by small governments.
Pro-China or pro-American
Lee Jae-myeong is pro-China and Yoon Seok-yeol is pro-U.S. in terms of diplomacy and defense.Yoon Seok-yeol mentioned the deployment of additional Saad.This means that the agreement with China will be scrapped.This means that China will confront China, but China is likely to impose economic sanctions on the Korean economy, which is highly dependent on China.Lee Jae-myeong did not mention the relationship with Japan, and Yoon demanded an apology and compensation from Japan.Does this mean that Japan-South Korea relations will be included in the U.S.-Japan relationship, rather than immediately restoring Japan-South Korea relations?In any case, if the right wins, there will be room for future negotiations from the Japanese side.However, relations between Japan and South Korea will end again when they demand an apology and compensation for the Japanese Military comfort woman issue.
POINT No matter which candidate wins, I don't think I can expect much about Japan-South Korea relations.
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processing trade What is the problem with Korea's trade deficit with Japan?The center of the Korean economy is processing trade.In other words, even if raw materials are purchased from Japan, they are sold to third countries with added value due to commercialization, so they are recorded as GDP in Korea.In other words, it's just added value and passed through.It may be trade deficit for example agricultural products imported from Japan and consumed in Korea are known, but they do not know what is wrong with processing trade.
If the cost of raw materials imported from Japan exceeds 50 percent of the cost of the product, Korea's added value will be less than 50 percent.However, this is not a trade deficit, but a cost management issue.In the first place, products that cost more than 50% of raw materials in the manufacturing industry it would hard to exist for lack of competitiveness.
Korea wants Japan to buy more products made from Japanese raw materials because of the trade deficit, but this is also meaningless.If Korea adds value to the cost of Japanese raw materials and Japan buys them, Japan will buy back the raw materials it sells, so there is no profit for Japan .This is not the cause of the trade deficit, but the competitiveness in the Japanese market.
Moon Jae In is a man who doesn't make no sense.
The exchange won rate has not stopped falling.The No Japan movement is a campaign to buy domestic products.Nothing will change under the chaebol economy.
South Korea's trade dependence on GDP is more than 70 percent, including the service sector.In other words, domestic demand is low and foreign exchange is directly affected.Even if foreign demand is received, it does not circulate at home and flows abroad.If the person who made the purchase contract increases the dollar by 5% at the time of payment, the payment will increase by 5%.The won-dollar exchange rate is 1,200 won, but it has been hovering around 1,200 won in recent days.
In order to maintain international competitiveness, chaebol companies such as SAMSUNG buy parts in bulk and produce them in bulk to reduce costs and sell them at low prices.In this case, large debts are always carried out and large payments are repeated, and problems arise when the value of the currency changes significantly during that period.This is the so-called default.Under these circumstances, the won's international credit rating has not increased, and South Korean companies can trade in dollars depending on the L/C of Japanese commercial banks.
South Korea experienced two foreign exchange crises in 1997 and 2008.No country will experience two foreign exchange crises in 10 years.In other words, South Korea's industrial form is vulnerable, and in short, it is trading beyond its currency capabilities.
Considering what Moon Jae In wants to do, the real intention is to socialize, control the currency, and stabilize the value of the won.Do you think the boycott is a campaign to buy domestic goods if it is reversed?
South Korea is listed by the FRB as a currency manipulator.
The reason why domestic demand is not expanding is the existence of chaebol companies.The role of chaebol companies in driving the Korean economy is important, but on the other hand, investment in chaebol companies is concentrated and other industries are not growing.In addition to the businesses run by chaebol companies, how can Korean companies grow globally?It can only be done with its own money without investment.
This structure will not change even if there is a boycott Japan.As a currency manipulator, even if it leaves the liberal economy, it will not change.It is necessary for the government to take the lead in fostering domestic demand and to attract investment in what industries to foster domestic small and medium-sized enterprises.The boycott Japan does not mean that South Korean domestic companies' sales will increase.
Moon Jae In's term of office is less than three months, and criticism from his country seems to be gathering.I think it's quite late from Japan view.
Moon Jae - in's words regarding Park Geun - hye's pardon are abstract; who is the one who created the division?
[Excerpt from Chosun Ilbo article (translation)]
On the 24th, former President Park Geun-hye expressed her gratitude to President Moon Jae-in for granting him a special pardon.
Lawyer Yoo Yong-ha, a close aide to former President Park, met with reporters in front of Samsung Seoul Hospital in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, where former President Park was hospitalized, and relayed former President Park's words on his behalf.
Regarding former President Park's health condition, attorney Yoo said, ``It looks like she will be receiving treatment at a hospital for the time being,'' but added, ``I cannot comment on the specific health condition right now.''
Regarding former President Park's future plans, lawyer Yoo said, ``Right now, he is concentrating on treating a new disease.He told me that he would not meet with anyone.''
On this day, to celebrate the new year of 2022, the government granted a special pardon to former President Park, who is currently in prison after being found guilty in the National Agricultural Organization Incident.
``We must overcome the pain of last year and move on to a new era,'' President Moon said, ``I hope that this will be the beginning of a new era of unity and harmony that transcends differences and pros and cons.'' .
President Moon said, ``Rather than being buried in the past and fighting each other, it is time for us to boldly work together toward the future.''Especially given the many challenges facing us, we must strive for national unity and humility.'' There is an urgent need for inclusiveness."
[Excerpt above]
Moon Jae-in's words have an abstract meaning: the people will come together as one and create a new era.
It is said that Moon Jae-in himself was the one who created the cause of the nation's division in the first place. The main argument of the opposition parties is that Moon Jae-in became president after taking advantage of Park Geun-hye's impeachment, and that the current left-wing government is the one that carried out various schemes surrounding the impeachment.
There are many people who feel that it is strange that this pardon was decided for the exact same reason as the previous pardon was not granted.
In South Korea, the president is arrested every time there is a change of government. Perhaps because of the culture of grudges, there is a history of retaliation for retaliation.
Many people take this to mean that Moon Jae-in is asking for a pardon and the charges against him to be reduced.
Moon Jae-in's term remains until next year's presidential election. Many people seem to feel uncomfortable about being pardoned at this timing.
[Korea] The mystery of Han Dong-hoon, chairman of the emergency response committee, who was supposed to have resigned, becoming party leader
This person is Han Dong-hoon, who is currently the leader of the ruling party of South Korea, the People Power Party. After the People Power Party lost the general election in April this year, he resigned from his position as emergency response committee chairman, but later ran for the party's leadership election on July 23rd and became its leader. Before the election, some Seoul city council members belonging to the party proposed to "repeal the ordinance that restricts the use of symbols of Japanese imperialism such as the Rising Sun Flag in public places," and in response to the party's declaration that it "strongly opposes the repeal of the ordinance," Han said that he would take strict disciplinary action, and the city council members withdrew the ordinance in just one day.
Han Dong-hoon said, "The use of symbols of Japanese imperialism in public places is absolutely unacceptable. The city council members who proposed the repeal of the ordinance will be investigated by the party and will take strict measures." And before the general election, a conflict arose between him and the First Lady over their differences in views, and the Blue House asked him to resign from his position as an emergency response committee member. Does this person's becoming the party leader mean that the balance of power within the ruling party, the People's Power Party, is changing dramatically?
First of all, this person seems to be claiming that they cannot win the election unless they incorporate the left-wing forces in South Korea, and by left-wing forces, they mean so-called anti-Japanese forces. In other words, comfort women groups and groups that support the forced labor issue. The People's Power Party has followed a pro-American and pro-Japanese path, but in the end, it seems that they are shifting the blame for their major election defeat to that.
The background to this is that these anti-Japanese groups worked together with the right wing, and the Korean right wing was a party with strong anti-Japanese tendencies, but the comfort women agreement was concluded during the Park Geun-hye administration, and the text of this agreement called for the establishment of a new foundation to resolve the comfort women issue, meaning that the previous comfort women group, the Korean Council for Justice and Remembrance for the Issues of Military Sexual Slavery by Japan, now the Korean Council for Justice and Remembrance for the Issues of Military Sexual Slavery by Japan, would lose their position completely, and the Moon Jae-in administration incorporated this.
This is how the left wing became an anti-Japanese party. Moreover, it became an even more extreme left wing party than ever before, and instigated the No Japan movement.
Yoon Seok - yeol (41.4%), [KSOI Korea]Lee Jae - myung (36.2%), and Lee Seok - yeol (41.4%), respectively. According to a survey of 1,004 adult voters nationwide from June 14 to 15, 41.4 percent of Yoon, 36.2 percent of Lee and 9.6 percent of Ahn.Yoon's approval rating rose 6.2 percentage points from Jeonju, while Jung's approval rating dropped 5.5 percentage points from 15.1 percent.Lee also lost 1.4 percentage points.Sim Sang Jung Justice Party candidate Kim Dong-young and Shinbo candidate Kim Dong-young received 3.6 percent and 0.9 percent respectively.
The approval rating gap between Lee and Yoon is 5.2 percentage points, but Yoon's approval rating has recovered to 40 percent in five weeks.Yoon also recorded 44.6 percent in Seoul, ahead of Lee (35.5 percent).
In the survey, 24 percent of respondents said they were progressive, the lowest percentage since February last year.Conservative tendencies were 34.8 percent, middle-income groups 24.9 percent, and unknown groups 6.3 percent.Regarding the nature of the next presidential election, 50.3 percent of the respondents chose "regime trial" and 36.5 percent chose "regime re-creation."Regarding the influence of television discussions on candidates, 60.8 percent said they would have an impact, while 35.4 percent said they would not.The survey was conducted using ARS (Automatic Response System) using mobile phone virtual numbers provided by telecommunications companies.
