With only three days left before the South Korean presidential election, what is the contrast between the two manifestos and Japan - South Korea relations?
2022-03-06
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Korea's presidential election is just around the corner
The Korean presidential election is only three days away.According to the latest opinion polls, the two seem to be at odds with each other's throats.In the past presidential election, it seems that the dominant candidate in the last poll won the election.Generally speaking, voter turnout is not the only way to go up.If the turnout is low, it will benefit the conservatives as well as the current administration.If voter turnout rises, those who are not usually interested in politics will participate in politics, which will be motivated to change the status quo.
Floating Moon Jae In
Moon Jae In was working hard on how to get floating votes.This is the minimum wage increase and the feminist movement.And, it succeeded in winning floating votes for young people and women.The result is the worst policy, but the ２０２２ manifesto shows that there are many contrasting and worrying parts.Lee Jae-myung said, "It includes correcting Moon Jae In's mistakes.Specific industrial investments will create jobs, and urban functions would be dispersed as a countermeasure soaring land prices in Seoul.Yoon Seok-yeol, on the other hand, advocates attracting and increasing investment through the free economy.This is in contrast to industrial investment by large governments and job creation by small governments.
Pro-China or pro-American
Lee Jae-myeong is pro-China and Yoon Seok-yeol is pro-U.S. in terms of diplomacy and defense.Yoon Seok-yeol mentioned the deployment of additional Saad.This means that the agreement with China will be scrapped.This means that China will confront China, but China is likely to impose economic sanctions on the Korean economy, which is highly dependent on China.Lee Jae-myeong did not mention the relationship with Japan, and Yoon demanded an apology and compensation from Japan.Does this mean that Japan-South Korea relations will be included in the U.S.-Japan relationship, rather than immediately restoring Japan-South Korea relations?In any case, if the right wins, there will be room for future negotiations from the Japanese side.However, relations between Japan and South Korea will end again when they demand an apology and compensation for the Japanese Military comfort woman issue.
POINT No matter which candidate wins, I don't think I can expect much about Japan-South Korea relations.
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The Korean won is falling.It exceeded 1,240 won. The reason that Japan must not make promises with the new Korean president prematurely .
The won fell to 1,243 won against the dollar.If the Fed raises interest rates in real terms, it will fall further.The main reason is that Russia's economic prospects are pessimistic. And Yoon Seok-yeol won the presidential election on March 9 and became president on May 10.Yoon called for strengthening the U.S.-South Korea alliance and mentioned the deployment of THAAD.China accounted for 24.8 percent of Korea's exports, twice as much as the U.S., the second largest exporter.When the Park Geun Hye administration decided to deploy THAAD, China imposed severe economic sanctions.China's economic sanctions are only pessimistic for investors, so Korean investment is likely to rise further and the won is likely to fall further.
Next time, South Korea will break its promise with China
Voting for South Korea's unified local elections was held on June 1st, with the ruling party
Local elections won by the ruling party
Local administration launches anti-Japanese movement
The president is the head of the executive branch
Twisted power runs amok
Efforts to improve relationships are always destroyed
Adopts resolution that violates international commitments
South Korea cannot keep its promises
Voting for South Korea's unified local elections was held on June 1st, with the ruling party "People's Power" winning 12 out of 17 regions, and the "Tomo Democratic Party" winning 4 regions including Jeolla Province and Gyeonggi Province by a narrow margin. It is reported that the ruling party won by a landslide, winning only five regions. This appears to be a trend that will lead to a resolution of the kinks between local government, the president, and the cabinet.
The No Japan movement was largely led by local governments. Gyeonggi Province, Seoul City, and Busan City have passed ordinances stipulating ``war criminal company stickers'' or ``restrictions on the purchase of war criminal company products.'' This is a surprising ordinance that places stickers on the products of Japanese companies that have been unilaterally labeled as war criminal companies, and restricts the use and purchase of those products in government agencies and schools.
Local governments in South Korea not only decide local leaders, but also exercise a variety of powers, including issuing ordinances that can lead to diplomatic issues between countries.
Regarding the ban on imports from Fukushima Prefecture, fishing organizations in coastal areas such as Busan are putting tremendous pressure on local governments. This is a local economic issue, and we do not want to import Japanese seafood to South Korea. This is to protect Korean fishing organizations. It is clear from the beginning that this is not a scientific problem.
The president assumes the position of head of the executive branch. Since the president is the head of state who is directly elected by the votes of all citizens, he is given great powers, unlike the prime minister in a parliamentary system.
In a parliamentary system, the leader of the parliament with the largest majority is elected prime minister. Therefore, the Prime Minister, the Cabinet, and the Diet, which is the legislative branch, will not be distorted. If anything could be twisted, the House of Representatives and the House of Councilors would be twisted.
In South Korea, the current president is Yun Seok-Yeol, who ran for office based on ``the power of the people,'' and the Democratic Party of Korea holds 58% of the seats in the National Assembly, the legislative body. In other words, even if the president uses his prerogatives, Congress can pass one bill after another to nullify them.
Substantive exchanges between Japan and South Korea began in 1998, when the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration was signed. Until then, Japanese culture, anime, manga, dramas, etc. had been prohibited in South Korea, but this declaration will lift the ban on these. It was also during this period that Korean dramas and K-POP began to flow into Japan.
Also known as the Obuchi-Kim Dae-jung Declaration, it was a declaration that comprehensively resolved the Japan-Korea issue, including the joint hosting of the 2002 FIFA World Cup between Japan and Korea and the conclusion of a new fisheries agreement regarding the Takeshima issue. It will be deactivated immediately thereafter.
On July 18, 2001, the South Korean parliament passed a unanimous resolution calling on the South Korean government to abolish the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration. Then, a large number of Korean fishing boats appeared near Takeshima, and the territorial issue reignited and continues to this day, and the activities of civil society groups on issues such as the forced labor issue and the comfort women issue further expanded. This is despite the fact that the World Cup was co-hosted by Japan and South Korea in 2002.
Will Congress vote to invalidate the president's diplomatic promises with other countries? Such unbelievable things happen in the South Korean National Assembly.
This has hardly been reported in Japan. Japan was united towards the success of the Japan-Korea joint World Cup. And during the match of this tournament, an incident occurs where Korean players criticize the Rising Sun flag and promote Takeshima as Korean territory. The premise behind this was that South Korea was already trying to revoke the 1998 Joint Declaration.
In South Korea, the president's powers will only be effectively exercised if he wins the presidential election and unified local elections, and the ``power of the people'' wins the national election in 2024.
The issue of South Korean ships conducting investigations around Takeshima shortly before and immediately after the presidential inauguration became a problem. In other words, South Korea is not even equipped to keep its promises..
This is especially noticeable in anti-Japanese groups. In South Korea, members of both the ruling and opposition parties are basically anti-Japanese.. Even if the Diet tries to improve relations with Japan as a matter of policy, if its practical interests are endangered, it will easily turn into an anti-Japanese Diet.
In Japan, if things are twisted, things will not be decided, but in Korea, twisted power begins to run amok. It is an uncontrolled rampage that continues even if international agreements are broken.
Candidate Lee Jae - myung said that America was to blame for the division of the Korean peninsula - a victim mentality lacking in historical understanding.
What is this person saying? South Korean presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung told U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff that the Korean peninsula was divided without Japan being divided. It is America's fault that the Korean peninsula was divided into north and south. On top of that, it's a statement that says Japan should have been divided.
Losing a war does not always result in division. The former East and West Germany was divided into East and West by the socialist Soviet Union and liberal countries. Since the Soviet Union was largely responsible for Germany's defeat, the Soviet Union gained control of Eastern Europe, and Germany itself was divided into East and West. In multilateral wars, when the victorious nations were unable to come to terms on their merits and interests, the method of partition was adopted. Germany is a perfect example.
So what about Japan? Although it is still a multilateral war, Japan has won against all Western countries except the United States. Only America lost. The Soviet Union had nothing to do with the Japan-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact. The Soviet Union entered the war on August 9, 1945, just before the end of the war. How could the Soviet Union claim its interests against the United States?
So why did the Soviet Union claim interests in the Korean Peninsula? This is said to have been determined by the Yalta Secret Treaty, which determined the division along the 38th parallel. The question is at what point in time should a return to the status quo be made, based on the principle of restoration to its original state in post-war settlements. At the Yalta Conference, Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin discussed how to deal with the aftermath of World War II.
The fact that the San Francisco Peace Treaty recognized the return of Taiwan dates back to the Sino-Japanese War. On the Korean Peninsula, Gojong, the Emperor of the Korean Empire, negotiated with Russia to sell the interests of the Korean Peninsula. The Soviet Union built the transcontinental railroad and began colonizing East Asia. The theory is that if Japan had not interfered in the Russo-Japanese War, the Korean Peninsula would have belonged to the Soviet Union. In other words, they are claiming rights dating back to before the Russo-Japanese War.
Why is present-day South Korea a democratic country? This is based on the premise that the Korean Peninsula belonged to Japan, and it was the United States that forced Japan into defeat, so the United States claimed its rights. Therefore, Korea came under the control of GHQ. Based on this premise, the 38th parallel was established as a compromise line with the Soviet Union, dividing the country into north and south.
According to a Korean public opinion poll, the support rates for political parties are 42.4% for both opposition parties, and 39.6% for People's Power.The general election will be held this year.
According to a Korean Realmeter opinion poll conducted in the fourth and fifth weeks of March 2020, the party support rate was 44.6% for the Democratic Party of Korea, and 30.0% for the United Future Party, the predecessor of People's Power. The Realmeter survey results announced on the 15th of this month show that the Democratic Party is 42.4%, and the People's Power is 39.6%.Although the gap has narrowed, the Democratic Party's approval rating has fallen by only 2.2 points. do not have.
In the 2020 survey, 55.7% approved of Moon Jae-in, and in the current survey, 36.3% approved of President Yoon Seok-Yeol. Interpreting these figures literally, expectations for the power of the people in the legislature have increased, but the support rate for the Democratic Party has remained almost unchanged. Both parties are members of the Democratic Party, whose party is led by Lee Jae-myung, who miraculously survived the assassination that everyone thought was a farce and was discharged from the hospital after a long hospitalization. Lee Jae-myung is currently being indicted by prosecutors.
These Democratic Party supporters can be seen as a rock-solid support group that will continue to support any party leader no matter what. Are these people who make a living through trade with China, and whose livelihoods are directly connected to their support for China? South Korea's trade dependence is 81.9% of GDP. The pro-Japanese and pro-American and pro-China and pro-North Korean compositions were one of the themes brought to light by Moon Jae-in, who stirred up the No Japan movement, but the essential issue is the economy. How far has the withdrawal from China's economy progressed?
In the Facebook group of the author who co-authored ``Anti-Japanese Tribalism,'' it is clear that the number of posters and viewers has decreased dramatically since Yun Seok-yeo became president. Is it because the No Japan movement has subsided? In that case, would those people have been better off if the No Japan movement had disappeared? I wonder how many people out there just wish they could drink Japanese beer. In other words, were the pro-Japanese simply rebelling against the intense anti-Japanese movements that were taking place? At least what we can say is that the power of pro-China, pro-North Korean forces does not seem to be weakening.
If we go into the 2024 general election in this state, there is a high possibility that the Democratic Party will once again control the largest number of seats. If this is the case, the Yun Seok-Yue administration will be run in a twisted manner throughout his term. Anti-Japanese issues are also legal issues. South Korea is a country with no anti-Japanese convictions. Since the Democratic Party is the most powerful party in both countries, it is difficult to bring about social change through legislation, and there is a high possibility that an anti-Japanese leftist president will be elected again in the next presidential election.
South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin strives to resolve the forced labor and comfort women issue - What does the Korean economy, where the won continues to be weak, demand from Japan?
South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs is extremely knowledgeable
South Korea is keen on repairing Japan-Korea relations
Korea's diplomatic techniques that you can't let your guard down
True feelings about getting close to Japan
Excited about swapping
To what extent will the Japan-Korea issue be resolved
Clarify what relationship improvement means
Special treatment is over
South Korean Foreign Minister Park, who is visiting Japan, emphasized that regarding the issue of labor recruitment lawsuits, ``We are making efforts within South Korea to find a desirable solution before cashing out,'' and added, ``The Japanese side also responded with a sincere response.'' I would appreciate it if you could give me that."
Mr. Nukaga, who met with him after the meeting, told reporters that he "intended to respect" the 2015 comfort women agreement that confirmed the "final and irreversible resolution" of the comfort women issue. I made it.
The current Yun Seok-Yue administration appears to be eager to repair relations with Japan. Before he took office as president, he sent a delegation of members of Congress to express his sincerity, and after taking office, the Minister of Foreign Affairs has shown an attitude of fully accepting the intentions of the Japanese side. But don't let your guard down.
The South Korean government's approach so far has been to extract some kind of concession from Japan, take it as a diplomatic credit, and then try to make a temporary move, and the pattern is to come back to it again and again.
Japan should negotiate without losing its stance that there is nothing Japan can do. In reality, the issue of post-war compensation has already been resolved in all agreements between Japan and South Korea.
The Korean won continues to be at a low price with no signs of rising. Due to the impact of interest rate hikes and the Bank of Korea trying to recover the won spent during the coronavirus pandemic, corporate investment will slow down. Since the won is not depreciating as sharply as before, it seems that the price is not falling off a cliff and is managing to cope even with the price dropping to around 1,300 won.
The US Federal Reserve has also begun withdrawing dollars from the market and raising interest rates. The Korean government wants to carry out another swap and looks at the American expression, but its expression remains firm. That's why it's Japan. I would like to somehow conclude a swap with the key currency to provide peace of mind.
Although South Korea has experienced economic growth, its industrial structure is a chaebol economy that generates profits through processing trade through bulk purchases and bulk sales, so domestic demand never grows, and it is greatly affected by exchange rate fluctuations. The national debt is increasing, household debt has exceeded GDP, and land prices in Seoul continue to soar, making it difficult to see when they will rebound. There is nothing wrong with the fact that Won is vulnerable.
The Japan-Korea issue is not just about the forced labor issue or the comfort women issue. In addition to the Takeshima issue, South Korea has broken all of the agreements that Japan and South Korea have concluded to date. The Japan-Korea joint declaration was left blank. The issue of excluding countries from the White List stems from concerns about the transfer of funds to North Korea and third countries.
Just because the issue of forced labor, which is about to be turned into cash, and the issue of comfort women, where statues of comfort women are being erected all over the world, are recent issues, it is normalization because these two issues have been resolved. Would you? In the first place, when South Korea refers to normalization, it means that they want to go back to the days when they were given special treatment.
Why did South Korea become a white country? Why did Japan do swaps during two economic collapses? This is only because Korea was given special treatment. It should be made clear that there will never again be a time when relations are treated as special even though they have been normalized.
