Prime Minister Kishida and South Korea's next president, Yoon Seok - Yeol, have a telephone conversation. Will there be any changes in foreign policy?
2022-03-12
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Second telephone conversation
Regarding Yun Seok-Yeol's telephone talk with Prime Minister Kishida of Japan following the US, the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs' foreign policy states that ``we will strengthen mutual assistance with China, Japan, and Russia, centering on the South Korea-US alliance. ”, which indicates that the telephone conversation did not follow the order of current foreign policy.
Expression of foreign policy of both countries
Looking at South Korea's diplomatic white paper for ２０２１, it uses expressions for Japan that are a step above the terms ``closest neighbor'' and ``neighboring country,'' and after looking into it, it appears that this expression has been adopted in ２０２０.
Similarly, in ２０２０, Japan reinstated the expression "important neighbor", which had been removed in ２０１８ and ２０１９. Although this appears to be in response to South Korea's move, it is a step down from the "most important neighboring country" that was used up until ２０１７.
Since this was a telephone conversation to report on the election, I don't think it will have a direct impact on Japan's diplomatic blueprint for ２０２２, but since the South Korean president will be inaugurated in May, it is important for the country to be able to carry out full-fledged diplomatic activities. will be after that.
POINT It may be necessary to check the ２０２２ edition of the Diplomatic Bluebook to see if there will be any changes in Japan's foreign policy in the future
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Another South Korean Army member fleeing to North Korea? The reality of the 22nd Infantry Division, which is in charge of sloppy border security.
On January 1st of the new year, an unidentified person climbed over the iron fence from the South Korean side and entered the North Korean side, leading to the attack on South Korean troops including the 22nd Infantry Division of the South Korean Army on the Eastern Front in the area where this incident occurred. The Army is on emergency alert.
The 22nd Infantry Division, a unit located on this border, has caused various problems in the past. In June 1984, there was another incident involving a large firearm that resulted in 23 casualties.
In June 2004, a private on duty at battalion headquarters left his post with a firearm and 15 rounds of live ammunition and was captured eight hours later.
In October 2008, a private second class on guard duty committed suicide with a rifle.
On March 28, 2012, a soldier was found dead with a gunshot wound to the head.
In 2005, two reserve sergeants and others were arrested a month later after seizing two K-2 rifles, six grenades, and 7,000 live rounds.
In 2005, a vessel believed to be a fishing boat headed for North Korea, and in October 2009, it was revealed that civilians had cut through iron fences and headed north.
In 2012, the so-called "knock defection incident" caused a stir in society. On October 2, 2012, North Korean soldiers crossed the border and knocked on the door of the living quarters, asking for asylum, but it turned out that the troops were unaware of the fact that the iron fence had been cut until then, and two generals Two territorial officers were reprimanded.
The 22nd Division has been involved in many incidents in the past, and is said to account for the majority of incidents that occur within the South Korean military, with some deriding it as an encyclopedia of military incidents.
The terrain is also difficult. The front boundary stretches for tens of kilometers, surrounded by rugged mountain ranges.
``Many soldiers are said to suffer from knee pain because the iron fence border line is very steep and goes up and down.As a result, guard duty is more difficult than in other divisions.This is also the reason why defections and incidents of North Korea are so common.
Although security near the border is thorough, it seems that there are many cases of people defecting or fleeing from South Korea or North Korea.
With only three days left before the South Korean presidential election, what is the contrast between the two manifestos and Japan - South Korea relations?
The Korean presidential election is only three days away.According to the latest opinion polls, the two seem to be at odds with each other's throats.In the past presidential election, it seems that the dominant candidate in the last poll won the election.Generally speaking, voter turnout is not the only way to go up.If the turnout is low, it will benefit the conservatives as well as the current administration.If voter turnout rises, those who are not usually interested in politics will participate in politics, which will be motivated to change the status quo.
Moon Jae In was working hard on how to get floating votes.This is the minimum wage increase and the feminist movement.And, it succeeded in winning floating votes for young people and women.The result is the worst policy, but the 2022 manifesto shows that there are many contrasting and worrying parts.Lee Jae-myung said, "It includes correcting Moon Jae In's mistakes.Specific industrial investments will create jobs, and urban functions would be dispersed as a countermeasure soaring land prices in Seoul.Yoon Seok-yeol, on the other hand, advocates attracting and increasing investment through the free economy.This is in contrast to industrial investment by large governments and job creation by small governments.
Lee Jae-myeong is pro-China and Yoon Seok-yeol is pro-U.S. in terms of diplomacy and defense.Yoon Seok-yeol mentioned the deployment of additional Saad.This means that the agreement with China will be scrapped.This means that China will confront China, but China is likely to impose economic sanctions on the Korean economy, which is highly dependent on China.Lee Jae-myeong did not mention the relationship with Japan, and Yoon demanded an apology and compensation from Japan.Does this mean that Japan-South Korea relations will be included in the U.S.-Japan relationship, rather than immediately restoring Japan-South Korea relations?In any case, if the right wins, there will be room for future negotiations from the Japanese side.However, relations between Japan and South Korea will end again when they demand an apology and compensation for the Japanese Military comfort woman issue.
No matter which candidate wins, I don't think I can expect much about Japan-South Korea relations.
Japan - South Korea relations, in which historical issues arise.Korea is rejecting Japan, which is becoming a historical issue.
What is the Japan-South Korea issue?It's a historical issue.This is a historical issue 77 years ago.The Japanese government established a joint research committee on Japan-South Korea history to make it a historical issue, not a political one, but South Korea rejected it halfway.So what will happen if Japan-South Korea relations are segregated before and after World War II?Japan and South Korea established diplomatic relations in 1965, and there was no public cultural exchange until the Japan-South Korea Joint Declaration in 1998.Japan-South Korea relations ignore the 1965 agreement, the Japan-South Korea Joint Declaration, and various other promises made by Japan and South Korea, and continue to deal with historical issues more than 77 years ago, regardless of culture or economy.
I don't know why Korea, which continues to cry out for historical issues, refuses to accept the Japanese government's attempt to turn it into a historical issue into a historical issue.Korean politicians often use the term "two-track strategy," but it is only a false diplomacy from the perspective of Japan.Japan has already proposed a two-track strategy.It is not the idea of using what is available, but simply separating historical and political issues.
The Japan-South Korea Joint Research Committee on History, which was established under the Koizumi administration, is currently not active at all.How will this solve the historical problem?
Yoon Seok - yeol (41.4%), [KSOI Korea]Lee Jae - myung (36.2%), and Lee Seok - yeol (41.4%), respectively. According to a survey of 1,004 adult voters nationwide from June 14 to 15, 41.4 percent of Yoon, 36.2 percent of Lee and 9.6 percent of Ahn.Yoon's approval rating rose 6.2 percentage points from Jeonju, while Jung's approval rating dropped 5.5 percentage points from 15.1 percent.Lee also lost 1.4 percentage points.Sim Sang Jung Justice Party candidate Kim Dong-young and Shinbo candidate Kim Dong-young received 3.6 percent and 0.9 percent respectively.
The approval rating gap between Lee and Yoon is 5.2 percentage points, but Yoon's approval rating has recovered to 40 percent in five weeks.Yoon also recorded 44.6 percent in Seoul, ahead of Lee (35.5 percent).
In the survey, 24 percent of respondents said they were progressive, the lowest percentage since February last year.Conservative tendencies were 34.8 percent, middle-income groups 24.9 percent, and unknown groups 6.3 percent.Regarding the nature of the next presidential election, 50.3 percent of the respondents chose "regime trial" and 36.5 percent chose "regime re-creation."Regarding the influence of television discussions on candidates, 60.8 percent said they would have an impact, while 35.4 percent said they would not.The survey was conducted using ARS (Automatic Response System) using mobile phone virtual numbers provided by telecommunications companies.
Yoon Seok - yeol wins the 20th presidential election...with a narrow margin of 1 percentage point.
Yoon Seok-yeol of the opposition party won the 20th presidential election by a narrow margin of 1 percent.Conservative parties have taken back the chair where pro-China and pro-North Korean left-wing presidents sat for five years.Yoon strongly criticized the Moon Jae In administration's policies and is eager to improve relations with Japan by taking a pro-U.S. stance.However, there are many concerns.
The future of the Korean economy, which relies heavily on the Chinese economy, is uncertain because the Democratic Party won about 60% of the seats in the 2020 general elections and Yoon Seok-yeol mentioned the deployment of THAAD.And even if Japan is eager to improve relations, it is based on Japan's apology and compensation, and in fact, it is drawing a starting line in the same place as the Moon Jae In administration.
The Japanese government is expected to remain parallel for a while because it is difficult to change its position that it has already been resolved through the Japan-South Korea Claim Agreement and the Japanese Military Sexual Slavery Agreement.However, the anti-Japanese movement is expected to subside as Korea's anti-Japanese sentiment is limited to Japanese Military Sexual Slavery and recruitment issues, but the Japanese government is expected to use U.S. power to demand an apology from Japan.
The election results are close to 1%, so regions with significant results are:
North Gyeongsang Province: 72.83% for Yoon Seok-yeol, 23.73% for Lee Jae-myeong
North Jeolla Province: 83.05% for Lee Jae-myeong, 14.36% for Yoon Seok-yeol
South Jeolla Province: Lee Jae-myeong 86.22%, Yoon Seok-yeol 11.34%
Gwangju Metropolitan City: Lee Jae-myeong 85%, Yoon Seok-yeol 12.56%
The difference is between 5% and 20% at most, regardless of which of the four regions is dominant.In any case, Lee Jae-myung's approval rating is close to 1 percent depending on the Honam region.Lee Jae-myung won only in Gyeonggi Province, Sejong Special Self-Governing Province, and Jeju Special Self-Governing Province.I heard that Moon Jae In also became president with the support of the Honam region.This is an enthusiastic pro-China anti-Japanese area, and this is probably the central area where they want to sell their seafood by inciting harmful rumors of Fukushima Prefecture seafood and criticizing Fukushima treated water.
First of all, it's a good thing that a conservative president takes office as a choice for better one, but Japan needs to calmly identify the other person.
