The Korean won is falling.It exceeded １,２４０ won. The reason that Japan must not make promises with the new Korean president prematurely .
2022-03-15
Category:South Korea
Photo by National Missile Defense image (licensed under CC0 1.0 )
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The won's depreciation has not stopped, and there are many uncertainties
The won fell to １,２４３ won against the dollar.If the Fed raises interest rates in real terms, it will fall further.The main reason is that Russia's economic prospects are pessimistic. And Yoon Seok-yeol won the presidential election on March ９ and became president on May １０.Yoon called for strengthening the U.S.-South Korea alliance and mentioned the deployment of THAAD.China accounted for ２４.８ percent of Korea's exports, twice as much as the U.S., the second largest exporter.When the Park Geun Hye administration decided to deploy THAAD, China imposed severe economic sanctions.China's economic sanctions are only pessimistic for investors, so Korean investment is likely to rise further and the won is likely to fall further.
Next time, South Korea will break its promise with China
The Moon Jae In administration has made a promise with China that it will not be included in the U.S. missile defense system, and that the U.S.-Japan security cooperation will not develop into a military alliance,and that the THAAD, which has already been deployed in South Korea without additional THAAD deployment, will not harm China's security.In other words, economic sanctions will inevitably be imposed if South Korea break their promise to China.The Democratic Party has ５８ percent of the seats in the ruling party, and domestic opposition is likely to be strong.If the won depreciates further, there will be more material to attack the president.
It's too early to get excited about improving Japan-South Korea relations
In Japan, it is reported that the president, who wants to improve Japan-South Korea relations, took office, but the environment is not that good.Even if the new president makes a simple promise between Korea and Japan, it is highly likely that Korean public opinion and parliament will not be able to fulfill it.On the contrary, if the won-dollar exchange rate exceeds １,３００ won, it will be out of control and even default again.
POINT All promises made in Japan and South Korea have been broken every time the president changes.The Japanese government should observe it a little calmly without rushing to achieve mere diplomatic results.
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The South Korean government is responsible for the Korean government's refusal to allow its nationals to repatriate - Japan protected them out of human rights considerations.
The issue of forced labor and the issue of residents in Japan are related. Conscription on the Korean Peninsula took place from August 1944 until the end of the war the following year. Until then, Koreans on the Korean peninsula were not subject to conscription or conscription. Employment at Japanese companies is highly sought after, and despite being conscripted, Mitsubishi Mining received seven times as many applications as recruitment.
Normally, those living in Japan would be forced to leave because they are foreigners, but the reason why this is not the case is because of the 1965 Japan-Korea Status of Forces Agreement. The South Korean government at the time received a huge amount of aid, but refused to allow its citizens to return home. Since all Koreans in Japan were believed to be slave laborers who had been forcibly taken away from Japan, it would have been inconvenient for a large number of people who had experienced a different reality to return home. Japan restored diplomatic relations out of human rights considerations and guaranteed the Koreans' status in Japan.
As was made clear in the Gunkanjima issue, the recruitment at that time was legal recruitment under ILO standards. In terms of human rights issues, it lies with the South Korean government, which has refused to allow large numbers of its own citizens to return and has discarded them. That is a human rights issue. And what is being made a fuss about all this is the issue of conscripted labor.
Masatoshi Muto, a former diplomat, says that making concessions to South Korea is a mistake and that South Korea needs a firm response.
Masatoshi Muto on his dealings with South Korea during his time as a diplomat. He says that he made a mistake by listening to everything and requesting as much as possible.
When asked about the anti-Japanese movement taking place in South Korea, Taro Aso, during his time as Prime Minister, asked, ``Does that have something to do with it?'' Japanese people don't care. As a result, the term ``virtual enemy country'' became popular. The view was that South Korea was conducting an anti-Japanese movement due to domestic circumstances.
There is no doubt that South Korea's current enemy is primarily North Korea. The Korean War is not over yet, and there is currently a ceasefire. When we see public opinion in South Korea calling Japan an enemy country while facing each other across the 38th parallel, we can't help but wonder to what extent South Korea is escaping reality.
When considered within the same framework, China is on the side of South Korea's enemy in the Korean War frame. Until now, the South Korean government has not been able to resolve security issues, and has abandoned its military and continued to focus on Japan, which has not fought back, because if it expressed hostility toward North Korea, China, or the United States, it would immediately take retaliatory measures. It's here. This is to gain the public's attention by saying something powerful. In doing so, it is easy to use stories from the past annexation era. Japan understands this environment and has tacitly tolerated South Korea's anti-Japanese movements.
What we need to clarify is that all of these environments are always real problems for South Korea. It seems that as long as Koreans remain anti-Japanese, they can temporarily feel as if their problems are gone. Even now, when the anti-Japan flag goes up, I forget everything due to a spinal reflex.
The police investigated the chairman of the Independence Society.Scholarships for descendants of those who contributed to the anti - Japanese movement, and embezzlement of them?
The Chosun Ilbo reported that Kim Won-woong, chairman of the Independence Committee of Korea, embezzled tens of millions of won from social cafes to provide scholarships to children of independence fighters, and asked the police to investigate.The Ministry of Veterans and Veterans Affairs said, "The Independence Society raised 61 million won by raising false orders or over-calculating costs."
Independence Society is an organization established by activists and descendants who participated in the anti-Japanese independence movement during the annexation of Korea and Japan.Japan's anniversary of the end of World War II is called Independence Day in Korea, where President Moon Jae In congratulated and the chairman of the Independence Society also greeted.Even if it is a greeting, it is a speech of resentment and hostility toward Japan.
The Independence Society is closely related to left-wing forces and has been at the center of the anti-Japanese movement under the Democratic Party.Yoon Mi-hyang, the predecessor of the Justice and Memory Alliance, was indicted on charges of embezzlement, and this time she was accused of embezzlement by the chairman of the Independence Society.In the first place, the Japanese Military Sexual Slavery problem is that Lee Yong-soo, the symbol of Japanese Military Sexual Slavery, was taken away by the Japanese army, and is said to be a swindler.Yoon Mi-hyang embezzled donations through Wednesday's rally using Lee Yong-soo as an advertising tower, and the Independence Society established a "meaningless system" to provide scholarships to descendants of independence fighters.
As you can see, the anti-Japanese movement is likely to be a fraudulent organization originally caused by lies and incitement.And the head of the fraudulent group is a group that embezzles the money.
It has become clear that the anti-Japanese movement is based on fraud.I'm paying attention to how far it will be revealed.
Representative Yuko Obuchi appeared at the Japan - Korea summit meeting *A wedge telling South Korea not to forget what she said. A meeting and dinner was held between Prime Minister Kishida and President Yun Seok-Yeol, and a press conference was held without a joint statement.
What has been decided is the resumption of shuttle diplomacy and the lifting of restrictions on three strategic items. In reality, the matter falls under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, but the actual content is that the leaders met together to confirm the matter.
Regarding the lifting of restrictions on strategic substances, in reality there will be no major changes in distribution from Japan, and the 2019 restrictions will not reduce or stop exports, so nothing will actually change.
In particular, President Yun Seok-Yeol raised the issue of North Korea and showed South Korea's cooperative attitude toward Japan, but this has only confirmed that this is back on track. This is natural since the North Korea issue is being dealt with through the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty and the U.S.-South Korea Security Treaty.
At the very least, future shuttle diplomacy should ask what South Korea can do for Japan, rather than the diplomatic relations that have been the case in the past, where Japan did something unilaterally.
That's what makes for healthy diplomatic relations. I can't think of anything specific that South Korea has done for Japan. No one is looking for diplomatic relations that involve chatting at the table and asking for wads of money under the table.
The next day, the Japanese media focused on the meeting between Suga, president-elect of the Japan-Korea Parliamentary Federation, and President Yun Seok-yeoul, but what I wanted to draw attention to was the woman in the very edge of the photo.
She is Yuko Obuchi, a lawmaker, and the daughter of former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi. The reason I wondered why she was in this seat was because I remember her not holding any government-related positions.
What really struck me was the 1998 Japan-Korea Joint Declaration. President Yun Seok-Yeol insists that Japan-Korea relations should return to the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration, but the question is how to return. And Japan complies with all of the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration. Returning would be a problem only for the Korean side.
The points of the 1998 Japan-Korea Joint Declaration are as follows.
Japan-Korea Joint DeclarationHolding of the 2002 FIFA World Cup
Promoting Japan-Korea economic cooperation
Opening of Japanese culture in Korea
Fisheries agreement around Takeshima in accordance with the new United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
Response to North Korea issue
The holding of the Japan-Korea World Cup and the influx of Korean Wave content all stemmed from this joint declaration.
The Japan-Korea Joint Declaration was signed by President Kim Dae-jung, but the Japan-Korea World Cup was said to be the worst tournament in FIFA history, and it became unclear whether it was an anti-Japan movement or a soccer tournament.
Less than two years later, the South Korean National Assembly passed a resolution to invalidate this joint declaration. Japanese people must not forget that the area around Takeshima was subsequently filled with Korean fishing boats again, resulting in the current state of Takeshima.
The Japanese representative who concluded this agreement was former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi. South Korea has completely torn up not only the 1965 Agreement, but also the 1988 Agreement.
Was Representative Yuko Obuchi invited to this meeting as a symbolic icon? In other words, this seems to have driven a wedge that returning to the Japan-South Korea Joint Declaration is the goal of the talks. It's about not forgetting what I said. Does the Korean side actually understand the meaning of this? I don't think they understand.
In conclusion, returning to the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration would be a very high hurdle. This joint declaration was scrapped because of the Takeshima issue. Perhaps the Korean side only understands this declaration as a resumption of cultural exchange.
With only three days left before the South Korean presidential election, what is the contrast between the two manifestos and Japan - South Korea relations?
The Korean presidential election is only three days away.According to the latest opinion polls, the two seem to be at odds with each other's throats.In the past presidential election, it seems that the dominant candidate in the last poll won the election.Generally speaking, voter turnout is not the only way to go up.If the turnout is low, it will benefit the conservatives as well as the current administration.If voter turnout rises, those who are not usually interested in politics will participate in politics, which will be motivated to change the status quo.
Moon Jae In was working hard on how to get floating votes.This is the minimum wage increase and the feminist movement.And, it succeeded in winning floating votes for young people and women.The result is the worst policy, but the 2022 manifesto shows that there are many contrasting and worrying parts.Lee Jae-myung said, "It includes correcting Moon Jae In's mistakes.Specific industrial investments will create jobs, and urban functions would be dispersed as a countermeasure soaring land prices in Seoul.Yoon Seok-yeol, on the other hand, advocates attracting and increasing investment through the free economy.This is in contrast to industrial investment by large governments and job creation by small governments.
Lee Jae-myeong is pro-China and Yoon Seok-yeol is pro-U.S. in terms of diplomacy and defense.Yoon Seok-yeol mentioned the deployment of additional Saad.This means that the agreement with China will be scrapped.This means that China will confront China, but China is likely to impose economic sanctions on the Korean economy, which is highly dependent on China.Lee Jae-myeong did not mention the relationship with Japan, and Yoon demanded an apology and compensation from Japan.Does this mean that Japan-South Korea relations will be included in the U.S.-Japan relationship, rather than immediately restoring Japan-South Korea relations?In any case, if the right wins, there will be room for future negotiations from the Japanese side.However, relations between Japan and South Korea will end again when they demand an apology and compensation for the Japanese Military comfort woman issue.
No matter which candidate wins, I don't think I can expect much about Japan-South Korea relations.
