What are your expectations for President Yun Seok-yue? Twisted National Assembly is a thorny road - Should Japan approve or wait and see? - South Korea's general election will be held in 2024.
2022-05-07
Category:South Korea
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Positive theory of Japan-Korea relations and wait-and-see theory
Looking at Japanese public opinion regarding the prospects for Japan-Korea relations since the inauguration of the Yun Seok-Yeol administration, there are some positive views toward improving relations and a wait-and-see view seen mainly on the right. As always, the affirmative opinion has no concrete content, and since the other party is asking for an improvement in the relationship, things will probably get better. It's just a matter of trying to get along because we're neighboring countries.
It will remain twisted until 2024
The wait-and-see theory is based on the points of the Korean unified local elections in June and the national election in 2024, and that the Democratic Party (a pro-China, anti-Japanese party) holds the majority of the Korean National Assembly.Twisted state Therefore, unless the ruling party wins the power of the people in the 2024 general election, no bill will be passed, so nothing can be done. Until then, Japan should do nothing and wait and see.
The least I can say is that I don't expect Japan-Korea relations to deteriorate any further during the next five years of the next administration. Personally, I think that if things don't get any worse, there's no need for them to get any better. In other words, there is a necessary distance between Japan and South Korea. This may be the best distance relationship.
Will true speech be freed under the new administration
In the long run, it would be most effective if the speech of pro-Japanese groups was liberated, rather than if the anti-Japanese movement subsided on the surface. In addition to those who prefer Japanese culture in South Korea, pro-Japanese speech is another form of speech that has been suppressed regarding the annexation of Japan and South Korea and Japan's support for South Korea after the war. Japan has no choice but to wait for South Korea to change, but there is no sign of that happening at all. The appearance of calm on the surface is only a temporary phenomenon. The root of Japan-Korea relations lies within South Korea, where freedom of speech is not recognized regarding the past history of Japan and South Korea. It is impossible to publicly state the fact that the Korean Peninsula modernized under Japanese rule.
Korean society will be denounced if it affirms Japanese rule
Under Japanese rule, slaves, who accounted for half of the population, were liberated, the class system was abolished, a school education system was established, food self-sufficiency increased, starvation deaths decreased sharply, sanitary conditions improved, and cholera and typhoid fever were reduced. The number of deaths due to such things has decreased dramatically. These are facts that do not exist in Korea .
Another history of being exiled from society
In South Korea's historical perspective, those who affirmed Japanese rule were expelled from academia in order to make the history of being enslaved and violated by Japan into a fact. He was also expelled from politics and government, and media outlets were also blocked. This is an unobjective view of history that only accepts one opinion, and is not academic in the first place. At the root of Japan-Korea relations is this unilaterally created view of history and the education of history based on that view. Unless this changes, we can see that even if the government continues to work together as it has done in the past, it will crumble like a sandcastle. This is exactly what history has proven.
A country where there is no freedom of speech about history
In other words, improving Japan-Korea relations means that South Korea itself will gain academic and speech freedom, that scholars who support Japanese rule will return to academia, that they will return to politics, and that South Korea will become a democratic country where people can have free discussions. . Without this, anti-Japanese education will never disappear. This is an issue that requires the process of South Korea maturing as a democratic country, so it will take a very long time. Therefore, Japan should continue to keep its distance and not approach them easily.
POINT If we look at the past, we are skeptical that politics will improve Japan-Korea relations. This problem is that academic and freedom of speech have not been secured in South Korea in the history of Japan and South Korea.
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Excited about swapping
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Special treatment is over
South Korean Foreign Minister Park, who is visiting Japan, emphasized that regarding the issue of labor recruitment lawsuits, ``We are making efforts within South Korea to find a desirable solution before cashing out,'' and added, ``The Japanese side also responded with a sincere response.'' I would appreciate it if you could give me that."
Mr. Nukaga, who met with him after the meeting, told reporters that he "intended to respect" the 2015 comfort women agreement that confirmed the "final and irreversible resolution" of the comfort women issue. I made it.
The current Yun Seok-Yue administration appears to be eager to repair relations with Japan. Before he took office as president, he sent a delegation of members of Congress to express his sincerity, and after taking office, the Minister of Foreign Affairs has shown an attitude of fully accepting the intentions of the Japanese side. But don't let your guard down.
The South Korean government's approach so far has been to extract some kind of concession from Japan, take it as a diplomatic credit, and then try to make a temporary move, and the pattern is to come back to it again and again.
Japan should negotiate without losing its stance that there is nothing Japan can do. In reality, the issue of post-war compensation has already been resolved in all agreements between Japan and South Korea.
The Korean won continues to be at a low price with no signs of rising. Due to the impact of interest rate hikes and the Bank of Korea trying to recover the won spent during the coronavirus pandemic, corporate investment will slow down. Since the won is not depreciating as sharply as before, it seems that the price is not falling off a cliff and is managing to cope even with the price dropping to around 1,300 won.
The US Federal Reserve has also begun withdrawing dollars from the market and raising interest rates. The Korean government wants to carry out another swap and looks at the American expression, but its expression remains firm. That's why it's Japan. I would like to somehow conclude a swap with the key currency to provide peace of mind.
Although South Korea has experienced economic growth, its industrial structure is a chaebol economy that generates profits through processing trade through bulk purchases and bulk sales, so domestic demand never grows, and it is greatly affected by exchange rate fluctuations. The national debt is increasing, household debt has exceeded GDP, and land prices in Seoul continue to soar, making it difficult to see when they will rebound. There is nothing wrong with the fact that Won is vulnerable.
The Japan-Korea issue is not just about the forced labor issue or the comfort women issue. In addition to the Takeshima issue, South Korea has broken all of the agreements that Japan and South Korea have concluded to date. The Japan-Korea joint declaration was left blank. The issue of excluding countries from the White List stems from concerns about the transfer of funds to North Korea and third countries.
Just because the issue of forced labor, which is about to be turned into cash, and the issue of comfort women, where statues of comfort women are being erected all over the world, are recent issues, it is normalization because these two issues have been resolved. Would you? In the first place, when South Korea refers to normalization, it means that they want to go back to the days when they were given special treatment.
Why did South Korea become a white country? Why did Japan do swaps during two economic collapses? This is only because Korea was given special treatment. It should be made clear that there will never again be a time when relations are treated as special even though they have been normalized.
[Korea] Yoon Seok - you's inauguration speech to democracy and liberalism [full text]
Respected and dear people,
7.5 million overseas compatriots,
And to all the world citizens who love freedom
I am here today with an epoch-making vocation that must rebuild this country as a country where the people are the true masters on the basis of liberal democracy and the market economy system, and make it a country that plays a role and responsibility in the international community. I stood up.
We would like to thank all the people who have been with us in the historical setting.
Tora Wen, Former President Park Megumi, President Jacob of Singapore, President of the Central African Republic of Tuadera, Vice President of China Wang Qishan, Former President of Indonesia Megawati, Vice President Harris Emhoff Harris, Senator George Fury of Canada, We would like to express our deep gratitude to Japan's Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and other congratulatory missions from around the world and to all the guests from Japan and abroad.
We would like to take this opportunity to pay tribute to the people who have endured great pain in the process of overcoming the pandemic of the new coronavirus infection for the past two years.
We would also like to thank all the medical staff for their dedication.
Respected people,
World citizens
Now, the whole world is one country alone or only a few countries participating, such as the pandemic crisis, changes in trade order and restructuring of supply networks, climate change, food and energy crisis, and retreat of peaceful resolution of conflicts. Faced with difficult challenges.
Various crises cast a complex shadow on human society.
In addition, many countries, including South Korea, are swaying and breaking down the cohesiveness of their communities due to ultra-low growth, large-scale unemployment, deepening polarization and diverse social conflicts.
On the other hand, politics that must solve such problems are failing to function due to the so-called democratic crisis.
Anti-intellectualism is cited as the biggest cause.
Science and truth must be a prerequisite for people with different views to coordinate and compromise with each other.
That is rationalism and intellectualism that support democracy.
Excessive collective conflict between nations and within nations distorts the truth, and anti-intellectualism, which selects only the facts that each person wants to see and hear and suppresses the opinions of others with a large number of forces, puts democracy in jeopardy and democracy. It undermines trust in the principle.
This situation makes it even more difficult to solve the problems we are facing.
But we can.
Looking back on history, the Korean people are on the verge of many crises, but each time they have worked together to overcome them wisely and courageously.
At this moment, I am grateful to be given the responsibility to overcome such a crisis and I am confident that we can overcome it proudly with our great people.
We also believe that we can work together with the world's citizens to resolve crises and challenges at home and abroad.
Respected people,
World citizens
I think it is very important for us to share universal values ??in order to solve this difficulty.
It is "freedom".
We must recognize the value of freedom correctly and accurately.
We must rediscover the value of freedom.
Looking back on the history of mankind, where free political rights and free markets were alive, prosperity and affluence always flourished.
Prosperity, affluence and economic growth are the expansion of freedom.
Freedom is a universal value.
All members of our society must be free citizens.
If the freedom of an individual is left unattended, the freedom of all of us members of the community will be threatened.
Freedom is by no means a winner's monopoly.
To be a free citizen, one must ensure a certain level of economic foundation, fair education and access to culture.
You cannot be a free citizen without this.
If one's freedom is not overrun or the conditions necessary to become a free citizen are not met, all free citizens must help in solidarity.
And if individual liberty is violated not only by individual nations but also internationally by hunger and poverty, illegal acts by public authority and military power, and a dignified life as a free citizen is not maintained, all world citizens will be free citizens. We must work together as a helper.
In order for everyone to be a free citizen, we must obey fair rules and have a spirit of solidarity and philanthropy.
Respected people,
I would like to talk about the direction that I consider important by looking at domestic issues.
In South Korea, excessive polarization and social conflict not only threaten freedom and democracy, but also hinder social development.
I don't think this problem can be solved without a leap and fast growth.
In the process of rapid growth, many people can find new opportunities and improve social mobility to eliminate the source of polarization and conflict.
Leap and fast growth can only be achieved through science, technology and innovation.
Science, technology and innovation protect our liberal democracy, expand our freedom and make our dignified life sustainable.
Science, technology, and innovation are difficult to achieve with the efforts of Japan alone.
By respecting freedom and creativity, we must work and solidarity with many countries that have achieved advances and innovations in science and technology.
Respected people,
World citizens
Liberal democracy creates peace, and peace protects freedom.
And peace is guaranteed by solidarity with the international community, which respects the values ??of freedom and human rights.
We must pursue sustainable peace that blossoms freedom and prosperity, not fragile peace that temporarily avoids war.
Nowhere in the world is free from the threat of freedom and peac
South Korean delegation insists on 'efforts from both countries' - Japan is fulfilling all its promises - South Korea is the one who is not making enough efforts
South Korea says efforts from both Japan and South Korea are necessary
Intentions of both countries passing each other
What is the destination that Korea envisions?
If we misunderstand the Korean issue, the government will tilt
Japan has already apologized many times
Japan fulfills all commitments
What does the effort of both countries mean?
While the recent South Korean delegation's visit to Japan has been reported as if the two countries have once again returned to the direction of improving Japan-Korea relations, the response of the Japanese government, including the prime minister, has been criticized. The South Korean side is keen to improve Japan-Korea relations, and as a result, interviews with the current prime minister, former prime minister, and other ministers were held. The most important point is that a gap that cannot be filled has been identified.
The rift is that while Japan is demanding that South Korea "fulfill its commitments," South Korea has consistently stated that "efforts from both sides are needed." This means that South Korea will not make unilateral concessions. More specifically, before the presidential election, President-elect Yoon Seok-Yeol met with Lee Yong-soo, a self-proclaimed representative of former comfort women, and said, ``We must demand an apology from Japan.'' has promised that he will receive it. That's probably what he's saying.
What kind of efforts does South Korea want from Japan? For example, is the Japanese Prime Minister going to South Korea, meeting with former comfort women, apologizing, and reporting the moving scene as an attempt to settle the matter? However, if South Korea's next government does not understand that this is an unlikely future, improving relations seems a long way off.
If Prime Minister Kishida were to do something like that, the Kishida administration would surely collapse, and even in this meeting with the parliamentary group, there are voices calling for Kishida to be removed from the position of prime minister. There are even voices saying that they will not vote for the Liberal Democratic Party in the next House of Councilors election. Reasons for this include the forced labor judgment and the abrogation of the Japan-Korea comfort women agreement.
Regarding the South Korean delegation's visit to Japan, since it was a group of parliamentarians before the inauguration of the new South Korean government, there were many opinions that Japan should also conduct the visit within the framework of parliamentary exchanges and that the government should not deal with it.
The comfort women agreement states, ``This is an issue that has deeply damaged the honor and dignity of many women, and from this perspective, the Japanese government is acutely aware of its responsibility.'' I would like to express my heartfelt apologies and remorse to the people of... Yun Seok-Yeol seems to think that since he has expressed his apology, it would be okay to apologize face-to-face. However, the agreement states, ``As the Japanese government declares the above and steadily implements the measures in (2) above (establishment of a foundation), this announcement will ensure that this issue will be finalized and irreversible.'' to make sure it is resolved."
The 1965 Claims Agreement, including the issue of forced labor, was already resolved. Japan is simply asking South Korea to faithfully implement these agreements. Japan has fulfilled all of its responsibilities, so all that remains is for South Korea to fulfill its own responsibilities. In other words, it is no longer an issue for both countries to make efforts.
Jeong Jin-seok, head of the South Korean delegation, claps his hands together and says that only by joining hands like this can relations be improved. Hearing these words, I can't help but think that South Korea's next new government may not even understand what the current situation is. This is because the efforts of these two countries resulted in the Claims Agreement in 1965, the Japan-South Korea Joint Declaration in 1998, and the Comfort Women Agreement in 2015, which is exactly the kind of hand-to-hand situation that Chung described. It is South Korea that unilaterally abolished these . Japan must not take a step back from this line.
If we look at Japan-South Korea relations after the restoration of diplomatic relations, South Korea has completely torn up all previous agreements. Is the next agreement really necessary?
President Yoon Seok - yeol said,
The Hankyoreh newspaper reported that the expectation that President-elect Yoon Suk-yuei will "do well" in state affairs has dropped for two weeks since taking office, raising the prospect that he will "do poorly.Moon Jae In Compared to 46.7 percent of the respondents said they are doing well, the expectations before taking office are low.
Yoon Suk-yuei said to move his President's office to another place, but before the inauguration of the president, the ruling Democratic Party of Korea and Moon Jae In have made it unable to move offices.
Meanwhile, the current president and the next president finally met on the 28th.Until then, the succession of the presidential office had not been realized in a tug-of-war between the ruling and opposition parties.The Hankyoreh newspaper seems to be advocating the Dalian government with the ruling party, but it seems to be quite unreasonable.This is because the election pledges of Yoon Seok-yeol and his rival Lee Jae-myung are water and oil , and there are few compatible factors.In the case of the Dalian administration, Cheong Wa Dae will have to make concessions to the ruling party in many respects, and it will end up being difficult to know what they are actually doing, even though they seem to have come together.
In order to resolve the strained situation, the power of the people must win the national election in 2024 and become the ruling party.It is highly likely that many legislative bills will not pass due to resistance from the ruling party even if they implement their own policies in a twisted state for the next two years.In that sense, nothing is expected to change for a while even if he is inaugurated as the new president.How to survive the two years and win the national election will all be after that.
Yoon Suk-yue is calling for improved relations with Japan and strengthening U.S.-South Korea relations, and the ruling party is insisting on keeping a distance from China.
Moon Jae - in's words regarding Park Geun - hye's pardon are abstract; who is the one who created the division?
[Excerpt from Chosun Ilbo article (translation)]
On the 24th, former President Park Geun-hye expressed her gratitude to President Moon Jae-in for granting him a special pardon.
Lawyer Yoo Yong-ha, a close aide to former President Park, met with reporters in front of Samsung Seoul Hospital in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, where former President Park was hospitalized, and relayed former President Park's words on his behalf.
Regarding former President Park's health condition, attorney Yoo said, ``It looks like she will be receiving treatment at a hospital for the time being,'' but added, ``I cannot comment on the specific health condition right now.''
Regarding former President Park's future plans, lawyer Yoo said, ``Right now, he is concentrating on treating a new disease.He told me that he would not meet with anyone.''
On this day, to celebrate the new year of 2022, the government granted a special pardon to former President Park, who is currently in prison after being found guilty in the National Agricultural Organization Incident.
``We must overcome the pain of last year and move on to a new era,'' President Moon said, ``I hope that this will be the beginning of a new era of unity and harmony that transcends differences and pros and cons.'' .
President Moon said, ``Rather than being buried in the past and fighting each other, it is time for us to boldly work together toward the future.''Especially given the many challenges facing us, we must strive for national unity and humility.'' There is an urgent need for inclusiveness."
[Excerpt above]
Moon Jae-in's words have an abstract meaning: the people will come together as one and create a new era.
It is said that Moon Jae-in himself was the one who created the cause of the nation's division in the first place. The main argument of the opposition parties is that Moon Jae-in became president after taking advantage of Park Geun-hye's impeachment, and that the current left-wing government is the one that carried out various schemes surrounding the impeachment.
There are many people who feel that it is strange that this pardon was decided for the exact same reason as the previous pardon was not granted.
In South Korea, the president is arrested every time there is a change of government. Perhaps because of the culture of grudges, there is a history of retaliation for retaliation.
Many people take this to mean that Moon Jae-in is asking for a pardon and the charges against him to be reduced.
Moon Jae-in's term remains until next year's presidential election. Many people seem to feel uncomfortable about being pardoned at this timing.