Yoon Seok - yeol wins the ２０th presidential election...with a narrow margin of １ percentage point.
2022-03-10
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Yoon Seok-yeol will be the president of Korea
Yoon Seok-yeol of the opposition party won the ２０th presidential election by a narrow margin of １ percent.Conservative parties have taken back the chair where pro-China and pro-North Korean left-wing presidents sat for five years.Yoon strongly criticized the Moon Jae In administration's policies and is eager to improve relations with Japan by taking a pro-U.S. stance.However, there are many concerns.
In the beginning, there are many difficulties
The future of the Korean economy, which relies heavily on the Chinese economy, is uncertain because the Democratic Party won about ６０% of the seats in the ２０２０ general elections and Yoon Seok-yeol mentioned the deployment of THAAD.And even if Japan is eager to improve relations, it is based on Japan's apology and compensation, and in fact, it is drawing a starting line in the same place as the Moon Jae In administration.
The Japanese government is expected to remain parallel for a while because it is difficult to change its position that it has already been resolved through the Japan-South Korea Claim Agreement and the Japanese Military Sexual Slavery Agreement.However, the anti-Japanese movement is expected to subside as Korea's anti-Japanese sentiment is limited to Japanese Military Sexual Slavery and recruitment issues, but the Japanese government is expected to use U.S. power to demand an apology from Japan.
Anti-Japanese areas support Lee Jae-myeong
The election results are close to １%, so regions with significant results are:
North Gyeongsang Province: ７２.８３% for Yoon Seok-yeol, ２３.７３% for Lee Jae-myeong
North Jeolla Province: ８３.０５% for Lee Jae-myeong, １４.３６% for Yoon Seok-yeol
South Jeolla Province: Lee Jae-myeong ８６.２２%, Yoon Seok-yeol １１.３４%
Gwangju Metropolitan City: Lee Jae-myeong ８５%, Yoon Seok-yeol １２.５６%
The difference is between ５% and ２０% at most, regardless of which of the four regions is dominant.In any case, Lee Jae-myung's approval rating is close to １ percent depending on the Honam region.Lee Jae-myung won only in Gyeonggi Province, Sejong Special Self-Governing Province, and Jeju Special Self-Governing Province.I heard that Moon Jae In also became president with the support of the Honam region.This is an enthusiastic pro-China anti-Japanese area, and this is probably the central area where they want to sell their seafood by inciting harmful rumors of Fukushima Prefecture seafood and criticizing Fukushima treated water.
POINT First of all, it's a good thing that a conservative president takes office as a choice for better one, but Japan needs to calmly identify the other person.
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South Korea has always opposed registration as a World Heritage Site. The meaning of culture is different from the rest of the world. People from all over the world come to Japan for a variety of reasons, including culture, history, anime and manga, cat cafes, maid cafes, traditional Japanese food, and other gourmet food. These are evaluated within the framework of culture. If we look at the definition of culture, we find that `culture is a system of ideas and value standards shared within a society, and a unique style possessed by a group.'
Cultural heritage must be something that has survived for a certain period of time, and can be thought of as something that has had a major impact on subsequent eras, and can be considered to be the "culture" of each country. It can be said that it exists within the range of value standards and definitions. Furthermore, Japan has registered 20 World Cultural Heritage Sites.
In this sense, South Korea is the only country to raise questions about Japan's registration as a World Cultural Heritage Site. This is not a historical issue, but simply a difference in the definition and framework of culture. Can they explain why Auschwitz in Germany and the Colosseum in Italy are world heritage sites? The Colosseum is an arena for killing each other.
If the common concept of ``culture'' in each country is the premise of world cultural heritage, then no Japanese person would object to the fact that Auschwitz and the Colosseum are cultural heritage sites. This is the Japanese way of thinking. In other words, it is different from Korea.
People visiting Japan come to see that there is almost no garbage left on the roads all over the country, and to see that the natural environment is still kept clean in one of the world's most developed countries, which is unique in the world. Although it can be said that this is Japanese culture that cannot be seen, there is no framework or precedent for considering such a culture that spreads throughout the nation as a cultural heritage.
Even if such a cultural framework were to match the world's definition, only South Korea would be opposed to it.
The Korean won is falling.It exceeded 1,240 won. The reason that Japan must not make promises with the new Korean president prematurely .
The won fell to 1,243 won against the dollar.If the Fed raises interest rates in real terms, it will fall further.The main reason is that Russia's economic prospects are pessimistic. And Yoon Seok-yeol won the presidential election on March 9 and became president on May 10.Yoon called for strengthening the U.S.-South Korea alliance and mentioned the deployment of THAAD.China accounted for 24.8 percent of Korea's exports, twice as much as the U.S., the second largest exporter.When the Park Geun Hye administration decided to deploy THAAD, China imposed severe economic sanctions.China's economic sanctions are only pessimistic for investors, so Korean investment is likely to rise further and the won is likely to fall further.
Next time, South Korea will break its promise with China
The exchange won rate has not stopped falling.The No Japan movement is a campaign to buy domestic products.Nothing will change under the chaebol economy.
South Korea's trade dependence on GDP is more than 70 percent, including the service sector.In other words, domestic demand is low and foreign exchange is directly affected.Even if foreign demand is received, it does not circulate at home and flows abroad.If the person who made the purchase contract increases the dollar by 5% at the time of payment, the payment will increase by 5%.The won-dollar exchange rate is 1,200 won, but it has been hovering around 1,200 won in recent days.
In order to maintain international competitiveness, chaebol companies such as SAMSUNG buy parts in bulk and produce them in bulk to reduce costs and sell them at low prices.In this case, large debts are always carried out and large payments are repeated, and problems arise when the value of the currency changes significantly during that period.This is the so-called default.Under these circumstances, the won's international credit rating has not increased, and South Korean companies can trade in dollars depending on the L/C of Japanese commercial banks.
South Korea experienced two foreign exchange crises in 1997 and 2008.No country will experience two foreign exchange crises in 10 years.In other words, South Korea's industrial form is vulnerable, and in short, it is trading beyond its currency capabilities.
Considering what Moon Jae In wants to do, the real intention is to socialize, control the currency, and stabilize the value of the won.Do you think the boycott is a campaign to buy domestic goods if it is reversed?
South Korea is listed by the FRB as a currency manipulator.
The reason why domestic demand is not expanding is the existence of chaebol companies.The role of chaebol companies in driving the Korean economy is important, but on the other hand, investment in chaebol companies is concentrated and other industries are not growing.In addition to the businesses run by chaebol companies, how can Korean companies grow globally?It can only be done with its own money without investment.
This structure will not change even if there is a boycott Japan.As a currency manipulator, even if it leaves the liberal economy, it will not change.It is necessary for the government to take the lead in fostering domestic demand and to attract investment in what industries to foster domestic small and medium-sized enterprises.The boycott Japan does not mean that South Korean domestic companies' sales will increase.
Moon Jae In's term of office is less than three months, and criticism from his country seems to be gathering.I think it's quite late from Japan view.
Representative Yuko Obuchi appeared at the Japan - Korea summit meeting *A wedge telling South Korea not to forget what she said. A meeting and dinner was held between Prime Minister Kishida and President Yun Seok-Yeol, and a press conference was held without a joint statement.
What has been decided is the resumption of shuttle diplomacy and the lifting of restrictions on three strategic items. In reality, the matter falls under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, but the actual content is that the leaders met together to confirm the matter.
Regarding the lifting of restrictions on strategic substances, in reality there will be no major changes in distribution from Japan, and the 2019 restrictions will not reduce or stop exports, so nothing will actually change.
In particular, President Yun Seok-Yeol raised the issue of North Korea and showed South Korea's cooperative attitude toward Japan, but this has only confirmed that this is back on track. This is natural since the North Korea issue is being dealt with through the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty and the U.S.-South Korea Security Treaty.
At the very least, future shuttle diplomacy should ask what South Korea can do for Japan, rather than the diplomatic relations that have been the case in the past, where Japan did something unilaterally.
That's what makes for healthy diplomatic relations. I can't think of anything specific that South Korea has done for Japan. No one is looking for diplomatic relations that involve chatting at the table and asking for wads of money under the table.
The next day, the Japanese media focused on the meeting between Suga, president-elect of the Japan-Korea Parliamentary Federation, and President Yun Seok-yeoul, but what I wanted to draw attention to was the woman in the very edge of the photo.
She is Yuko Obuchi, a lawmaker, and the daughter of former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi. The reason I wondered why she was in this seat was because I remember her not holding any government-related positions.
What really struck me was the 1998 Japan-Korea Joint Declaration. President Yun Seok-Yeol insists that Japan-Korea relations should return to the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration, but the question is how to return. And Japan complies with all of the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration. Returning would be a problem only for the Korean side.
The points of the 1998 Japan-Korea Joint Declaration are as follows.
Japan-Korea Joint DeclarationHolding of the 2002 FIFA World Cup
Promoting Japan-Korea economic cooperation
Opening of Japanese culture in Korea
Fisheries agreement around Takeshima in accordance with the new United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
Response to North Korea issue
The holding of the Japan-Korea World Cup and the influx of Korean Wave content all stemmed from this joint declaration.
The Japan-Korea Joint Declaration was signed by President Kim Dae-jung, but the Japan-Korea World Cup was said to be the worst tournament in FIFA history, and it became unclear whether it was an anti-Japan movement or a soccer tournament.
Less than two years later, the South Korean National Assembly passed a resolution to invalidate this joint declaration. Japanese people must not forget that the area around Takeshima was subsequently filled with Korean fishing boats again, resulting in the current state of Takeshima.
The Japanese representative who concluded this agreement was former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi. South Korea has completely torn up not only the 1965 Agreement, but also the 1988 Agreement.
Was Representative Yuko Obuchi invited to this meeting as a symbolic icon? In other words, this seems to have driven a wedge that returning to the Japan-South Korea Joint Declaration is the goal of the talks. It's about not forgetting what I said. Does the Korean side actually understand the meaning of this? I don't think they understand.
In conclusion, returning to the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration would be a very high hurdle. This joint declaration was scrapped because of the Takeshima issue. Perhaps the Korean side only understands this declaration as a resumption of cultural exchange.
The number of malfunctions of the South Korean Air Force's F-35A fighter jets is 234, and 172 are unflyable - Expensive fighter jets are also useless. From last year, when the South Korean Air Force's most advanced fighter jet, the F-35A, began regular operations, to the first half of this year, it was judged to be in a condition not capable of flight (G-NORS) or not capable of carrying out specific missions (F-NORS) a total of 234 times. It was reported that this was found out. The breakdown is 172 G-NORS and 62 F-NORS.
F-35As affected by G-NORS were unable to perform missions for an average of 12 days last year and 11 days in the first half of this year. F-35As affected by F-NORS were restricted from performing missions for an average of 129 days last year and an average of 24 days in the first half of this year. The reason for the failure is that some problems occurred in procurement of repair accessories, and the manufacturer did not promptly procure repair accessories. In other words, the company is being investigated for being skimpy in procuring repair accessories.
The F-35A is a fifth-generation stealth fighter with a maximum speed of Mach 1.6 and a combat radius of 1,93 km, making it one of North Korea's most feared weapons, but is it practical if it has so many breakdowns? There are question marks attached to this situation.
The biggest problem is that Korea does not have the know-how to repair the F-35.The only base in Asia that can repair the F-35 is the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries factory in Aichi Prefecture, Japan. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is a company designated as a war criminal by South Korea. I wonder if it would be difficult to repair it in Japan within Korea, or maybe I would have to take it to America.
Or will they secretly bring it to Japan? Speaking of which, Japan is currently developing the F-3 fighter jet, which is also being developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. It would be impossible to purchase fighter jets from a war criminal company.
Japan will significantly increase its defense budget and advance military research. Since we do not have an alliance with South Korea, we must refrain from selling weapons to South Korea.
