Yoon Seok - yeol wins the ２０th presidential election...with a narrow margin of １ percentage point.
2022-03-10
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Yoon Seok-yeol will be the president of Korea
Yoon Seok-yeol of the opposition party won the ２０th presidential election by a narrow margin of １ percent.Conservative parties have taken back the chair where pro-China and pro-North Korean left-wing presidents sat for five years.Yoon strongly criticized the Moon Jae In administration's policies and is eager to improve relations with Japan by taking a pro-U.S. stance.However, there are many concerns.
In the beginning, there are many difficulties
The future of the Korean economy, which relies heavily on the Chinese economy, is uncertain because the Democratic Party won about ６０% of the seats in the ２０２０ general elections and Yoon Seok-yeol mentioned the deployment of THAAD.And even if Japan is eager to improve relations, it is based on Japan's apology and compensation, and in fact, it is drawing a starting line in the same place as the Moon Jae In administration.
The Japanese government is expected to remain parallel for a while because it is difficult to change its position that it has already been resolved through the Japan-South Korea Claim Agreement and the Japanese Military Sexual Slavery Agreement.However, the anti-Japanese movement is expected to subside as Korea's anti-Japanese sentiment is limited to Japanese Military Sexual Slavery and recruitment issues, but the Japanese government is expected to use U.S. power to demand an apology from Japan.
Anti-Japanese areas support Lee Jae-myeong
The election results are close to １%, so regions with significant results are:
North Gyeongsang Province: ７２.８３% for Yoon Seok-yeol, ２３.７３% for Lee Jae-myeong
North Jeolla Province: ８３.０５% for Lee Jae-myeong, １４.３６% for Yoon Seok-yeol
South Jeolla Province: Lee Jae-myeong ８６.２２%, Yoon Seok-yeol １１.３４%
Gwangju Metropolitan City: Lee Jae-myeong ８５%, Yoon Seok-yeol １２.５６%
The difference is between ５% and ２０% at most, regardless of which of the four regions is dominant.In any case, Lee Jae-myung's approval rating is close to １ percent depending on the Honam region.Lee Jae-myung won only in Gyeonggi Province, Sejong Special Self-Governing Province, and Jeju Special Self-Governing Province.I heard that Moon Jae In also became president with the support of the Honam region.This is an enthusiastic pro-China anti-Japanese area, and this is probably the central area where they want to sell their seafood by inciting harmful rumors of Fukushima Prefecture seafood and criticizing Fukushima treated water.
POINT First of all, it's a good thing that a conservative president takes office as a choice for better one, but Japan needs to calmly identify the other person.
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It's okay to win even if you commit a foul. Don't expect anything from a country with a different concept of sports.
In Japan, there is no question that sports are played to train the mind and body, and this is sought after in all walks of life. On top of that, the champions of each sport are also expected to have good personalities, so Japanese people are very careful when interviewing the winners.
Physical education is distinguished from sports in that it incorporates physical exercise as a part of education and aims not only to train the body but also to improve the mind and personality. Sports are said to be purely about enjoying the competition and the wins and losses. In order to have fun, you can only enjoy victory and defeat within the fairness that comes from following the rules. It is also expressed as sportsmanship.
If you think about whether Korea does physical education or sports, unfortunately it seems like they are failing at both. Even though it is said that political statements should not be brought into sports, athletes who can't stand it anymore and make a big fuss over the Rising Sun flag or claim territory on the field are seen as heroes. He doesn't mind taking fouls in order to win. Do they think that the rules are something that is followed when the referee is watching? There is no concept of sportsmanship here.
I'm sure some people will argue that this is something that some players do, but the relative number of fouls committed by Korean players is too high. And that is what athletes who participate in international competitions do. As I wrote at the beginning, in Japan, sports are viewed as physical education from elementary school onwards, and the higher a player becomes, the more they continue to train, and as a representative of the country, they are expected to act without shame. It can be said that there are almost no players who commit such foul acts when they reach the level of participating in international tournaments.
It is said that all sports are supervised by an organization called the Korea Athletic Association, but it seems that they are more passionate about anti-Japan activities than athletics, and that way of thinking is quite different even internationally.
The exchange won rate has not stopped falling.The No Japan movement is a campaign to buy domestic products.Nothing will change under the chaebol economy.
South Korea's trade dependence on GDP is more than 70 percent, including the service sector.In other words, domestic demand is low and foreign exchange is directly affected.Even if foreign demand is received, it does not circulate at home and flows abroad.If the person who made the purchase contract increases the dollar by 5% at the time of payment, the payment will increase by 5%.The won-dollar exchange rate is 1,200 won, but it has been hovering around 1,200 won in recent days.
In order to maintain international competitiveness, chaebol companies such as SAMSUNG buy parts in bulk and produce them in bulk to reduce costs and sell them at low prices.In this case, large debts are always carried out and large payments are repeated, and problems arise when the value of the currency changes significantly during that period.This is the so-called default.Under these circumstances, the won's international credit rating has not increased, and South Korean companies can trade in dollars depending on the L/C of Japanese commercial banks.
South Korea experienced two foreign exchange crises in 1997 and 2008.No country will experience two foreign exchange crises in 10 years.In other words, South Korea's industrial form is vulnerable, and in short, it is trading beyond its currency capabilities.
Considering what Moon Jae In wants to do, the real intention is to socialize, control the currency, and stabilize the value of the won.Do you think the boycott is a campaign to buy domestic goods if it is reversed?
South Korea is listed by the FRB as a currency manipulator.
The reason why domestic demand is not expanding is the existence of chaebol companies.The role of chaebol companies in driving the Korean economy is important, but on the other hand, investment in chaebol companies is concentrated and other industries are not growing.In addition to the businesses run by chaebol companies, how can Korean companies grow globally?It can only be done with its own money without investment.
This structure will not change even if there is a boycott Japan.As a currency manipulator, even if it leaves the liberal economy, it will not change.It is necessary for the government to take the lead in fostering domestic demand and to attract investment in what industries to foster domestic small and medium-sized enterprises.The boycott Japan does not mean that South Korean domestic companies' sales will increase.
Moon Jae In's term of office is less than three months, and criticism from his country seems to be gathering.I think it's quite late from Japan view.
The president Moon Jae In's last resistance to the relocation of the president's office.cloud over election pledges.
They seem to be at odds over the relocation of the presidential office in South Korea.Yoon Seok-yeol, who is scheduled to become the next president in the presidential election, will not work at Cheong Wa Dae.He promised to relocate.The current Moon Jae In administration has made moving stop.Specifically, the government was about to start the relocation work after obtaining approval for the reserve fund expenditure at a Cabinet meeting scheduled for March 22, but it seems that it is not possible to obtain the reserve fund budget.The current presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said, "It is impossible to move the presidential office before the new administration takes office."Yoon Seok-yeol said, "If Moon Jae In refuses to cooperate on the most representative transition tasks, there is no way to enforce them."
Yoon Seok-yeol and the party "the power of the people" expressed their anger at President Moon, who said they could not agree to move the Ministry of National Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff due to security instability."The situation in which the president cannot enter the office and cannot be properly guarded will cause the security crisis of the Republic of Korea. Cheong Wa Dae's refusal to compile a budget on the grounds of a security vacuum is nothing more than a hindrance to the inauguration of the new government."
After all, it seems that the plan to relocate Cheong Wa Dae on May 10, when the administration takes office, was unreasonable.Moon Jae In The administration seems to say that it is impossible to transfer security and Cheong Wa Dae functions by that date, and whether it is correct or not, the relocation of Cheong Wa Dae should have been done at the right time after taking office.In other words, the first item in the election pledge has already been nullified by the ruling party.At least where the presidential office is held is not a matter, and it seems to be nothing more than a dispute that lacks substance.
Mr. Yoon Seok-yeol also seems to have been a bit slow to read.The current president is a Democrat with 58 percent of the seats in the National Assembly.I don't think I can get their help.
Another South Korean Army member fleeing to North Korea? The reality of the 22nd Infantry Division, which is in charge of sloppy border security.
On January 1st of the new year, an unidentified person climbed over the iron fence from the South Korean side and entered the North Korean side, leading to the attack on South Korean troops including the 22nd Infantry Division of the South Korean Army on the Eastern Front in the area where this incident occurred. The Army is on emergency alert.
The 22nd Infantry Division, a unit located on this border, has caused various problems in the past. In June 1984, there was another incident involving a large firearm that resulted in 23 casualties.
In June 2004, a private on duty at battalion headquarters left his post with a firearm and 15 rounds of live ammunition and was captured eight hours later.
In October 2008, a private second class on guard duty committed suicide with a rifle.
On March 28, 2012, a soldier was found dead with a gunshot wound to the head.
In 2005, two reserve sergeants and others were arrested a month later after seizing two K-2 rifles, six grenades, and 7,000 live rounds.
In 2005, a vessel believed to be a fishing boat headed for North Korea, and in October 2009, it was revealed that civilians had cut through iron fences and headed north.
In 2012, the so-called "knock defection incident" caused a stir in society. On October 2, 2012, North Korean soldiers crossed the border and knocked on the door of the living quarters, asking for asylum, but it turned out that the troops were unaware of the fact that the iron fence had been cut until then, and two generals Two territorial officers were reprimanded.
The 22nd Division has been involved in many incidents in the past, and is said to account for the majority of incidents that occur within the South Korean military, with some deriding it as an encyclopedia of military incidents.
The terrain is also difficult. The front boundary stretches for tens of kilometers, surrounded by rugged mountain ranges.
``Many soldiers are said to suffer from knee pain because the iron fence border line is very steep and goes up and down.As a result, guard duty is more difficult than in other divisions.This is also the reason why defections and incidents of North Korea are so common.
Although security near the border is thorough, it seems that there are many cases of people defecting or fleeing from South Korea or North Korea.
Representative Yuko Obuchi appeared at the Japan - Korea summit meeting *A wedge telling South Korea not to forget what she said. A meeting and dinner was held between Prime Minister Kishida and President Yun Seok-Yeol, and a press conference was held without a joint statement.
What has been decided is the resumption of shuttle diplomacy and the lifting of restrictions on three strategic items. In reality, the matter falls under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, but the actual content is that the leaders met together to confirm the matter.
Regarding the lifting of restrictions on strategic substances, in reality there will be no major changes in distribution from Japan, and the 2019 restrictions will not reduce or stop exports, so nothing will actually change.
In particular, President Yun Seok-Yeol raised the issue of North Korea and showed South Korea's cooperative attitude toward Japan, but this has only confirmed that this is back on track. This is natural since the North Korea issue is being dealt with through the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty and the U.S.-South Korea Security Treaty.
At the very least, future shuttle diplomacy should ask what South Korea can do for Japan, rather than the diplomatic relations that have been the case in the past, where Japan did something unilaterally.
That's what makes for healthy diplomatic relations. I can't think of anything specific that South Korea has done for Japan. No one is looking for diplomatic relations that involve chatting at the table and asking for wads of money under the table.
The next day, the Japanese media focused on the meeting between Suga, president-elect of the Japan-Korea Parliamentary Federation, and President Yun Seok-yeoul, but what I wanted to draw attention to was the woman in the very edge of the photo.
She is Yuko Obuchi, a lawmaker, and the daughter of former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi. The reason I wondered why she was in this seat was because I remember her not holding any government-related positions.
What really struck me was the 1998 Japan-Korea Joint Declaration. President Yun Seok-Yeol insists that Japan-Korea relations should return to the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration, but the question is how to return. And Japan complies with all of the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration. Returning would be a problem only for the Korean side.
The points of the 1998 Japan-Korea Joint Declaration are as follows.
Japan-Korea Joint DeclarationHolding of the 2002 FIFA World Cup
Promoting Japan-Korea economic cooperation
Opening of Japanese culture in Korea
Fisheries agreement around Takeshima in accordance with the new United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
Response to North Korea issue
The holding of the Japan-Korea World Cup and the influx of Korean Wave content all stemmed from this joint declaration.
The Japan-Korea Joint Declaration was signed by President Kim Dae-jung, but the Japan-Korea World Cup was said to be the worst tournament in FIFA history, and it became unclear whether it was an anti-Japan movement or a soccer tournament.
Less than two years later, the South Korean National Assembly passed a resolution to invalidate this joint declaration. Japanese people must not forget that the area around Takeshima was subsequently filled with Korean fishing boats again, resulting in the current state of Takeshima.
The Japanese representative who concluded this agreement was former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi. South Korea has completely torn up not only the 1965 Agreement, but also the 1988 Agreement.
Was Representative Yuko Obuchi invited to this meeting as a symbolic icon? In other words, this seems to have driven a wedge that returning to the Japan-South Korea Joint Declaration is the goal of the talks. It's about not forgetting what I said. Does the Korean side actually understand the meaning of this? I don't think they understand.
In conclusion, returning to the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration would be a very high hurdle. This joint declaration was scrapped because of the Takeshima issue. Perhaps the Korean side only understands this declaration as a resumption of cultural exchange.
