The new President Yoon Seok - yeol will be confused by many obstacles to its government.The general election will be held in ２０２４.
2022-03-10
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The new government begins in a twisted state
Yoon Seok-yul, the president, will be worried about the distortion with Congress.The Democratic Party which is ruling party has １７２ seats (５８.３１ percent).It is still difficult to determine how the president can implement his policies in this power map.If you look at the presidential authority of the Korean Constitution, there are Articles ５３, ７３ and ７４.Article ７３ is the authority to sign diplomatic treaties and Article ７４ is the command of the military.Article ５３ provides the right to request reconsideration of a parliamentary resolution.Article ４９ states that the bill will be approved by a majority of lawmakers and a majority of those present, but if the president requests reconsideration, it will require a majority of attendance and a ２/３ votes .If the figure is to rise from ５８.３１ percent to ６７ percent, the ruling party will have to add to win ２５ votes in favor.
Will the full launch be after ２０２４
The ruling party's bill is likely to be rejected if it is returned.However, since this is a request for reconsideration of the bill already approved in Congress, the bill submitted by the opposition party "People's Power" is likely to be overthrown by the ruling party in Congress.In other words, Yoon will have to wait for the ２０２４ general election to take effect.Before that, various bills could be rejected by Congress, and the Manifesto incident could be eliminated.In this environment, diplomatic rights such as strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance may be exercised to sign treaties or agreements.
Prime Minister Kishida is also eager to improve relations
Yoon Seok-yeol is also eager to improve relations between Korea and Japan.In response, Prime Minister Kishida said, "It is important to communicate closely with the new president and the new administration in order to restore sound relations based on Japan's consistent position.I want to see the new government's movements in the future and talk to the new government."Yoon Seok-yeol said in her manifesto, "Japan's apology and compensation are the prerequisite for improving relations between Korea and Japan," drawing attention to future developments."
The presidential election that divides the country
In any case, he won the presidential election, but the difference in votes was less than １ percent, ０.７３ percent, and half of the people supported the opposition candidate.
POINT It is difficult to determine how far policies can be implemented with presidential authority alone.Anti-Japanese forces are still strong.
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Prime Minister Kishida and South Korea's next president, Yoon Seok - Yeol, have a telephone conversation. Will there be any changes in foreign policy?
Regarding Yun Seok-Yeol's telephone talk with Prime Minister Kishida of Japan following the US, the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs' foreign policy states that ``we will strengthen mutual assistance with China, Japan, and Russia, centering on the South Korea-US alliance. ”, which indicates that the telephone conversation did not follow the order of current foreign policy.
Looking at South Korea's diplomatic white paper for 2021, it uses expressions for Japan that are a step above the terms ``closest neighbor'' and ``neighboring country,'' and after looking into it, it appears that this expression has been adopted in 2020.
Similarly, in 2020, Japan reinstated the expression "important neighbor", which had been removed in 2018 and 2019. Although this appears to be in response to South Korea's move, it is a step down from the "most important neighboring country" that was used up until 2017.
Since this was a telephone conversation to report on the election, I don't think it will have a direct impact on Japan's diplomatic blueprint for 2022, but since the South Korean president will be inaugurated in May, it is important for the country to be able to carry out full-fledged diplomatic activities. will be after that.
It may be necessary to check the 2022 edition of the Diplomatic Bluebook to see if there will be any changes in Japan's foreign policy in the future
President Yoon Seok - yeol said,
The Hankyoreh newspaper reported that the expectation that President-elect Yoon Suk-yuei will "do well" in state affairs has dropped for two weeks since taking office, raising the prospect that he will "do poorly.Moon Jae In Compared to 46.7 percent of the respondents said they are doing well, the expectations before taking office are low.
Yoon Suk-yuei said to move his President's office to another place, but before the inauguration of the president, the ruling Democratic Party of Korea and Moon Jae In have made it unable to move offices.
Meanwhile, the current president and the next president finally met on the 28th.Until then, the succession of the presidential office had not been realized in a tug-of-war between the ruling and opposition parties.The Hankyoreh newspaper seems to be advocating the Dalian government with the ruling party, but it seems to be quite unreasonable.This is because the election pledges of Yoon Seok-yeol and his rival Lee Jae-myung are water and oil , and there are few compatible factors.In the case of the Dalian administration, Cheong Wa Dae will have to make concessions to the ruling party in many respects, and it will end up being difficult to know what they are actually doing, even though they seem to have come together.
In order to resolve the strained situation, the power of the people must win the national election in 2024 and become the ruling party.It is highly likely that many legislative bills will not pass due to resistance from the ruling party even if they implement their own policies in a twisted state for the next two years.In that sense, nothing is expected to change for a while even if he is inaugurated as the new president.How to survive the two years and win the national election will all be after that.
Yoon Suk-yue is calling for improved relations with Japan and strengthening U.S.-South Korea relations, and the ruling party is insisting on keeping a distance from China.
Looking at Mr. Yoon Suk Yeol's argument, the content of the liberal camp, which is the opposite of the pro - China and pro - North Moon Jae In administration
- Regarding diplomacy: Diplomacy is not visible in the Moon Jae-in government. His philosophy and values are also unclear. A clear value system should make our future predictable, but this is lacking.
These include the rule of law, liberal democracy, the value of human rights, and a codified international legal order. We must maintain and develop relationships between countries that share this same understanding.
[Yin Seok-yue's claim]
Regarding historical issues: We must always clearly define past history based on truth, and point out what needs to be pointed out. In matters of reality and the future, the interests of the people and the nation must be considered. After all, it's for future generations.
About Kim Jong-un: Kim Jong-un is judged to be a dictator in the light of modern civilized nations and liberal democratic systems. At the same time, he is a very decisive figure for the denuclearization of North Korea, for the Korean peninsula and for sustainable world peace, so he is a partner who must keep an outlet for dialogue open.
Security and defense: The right direction is for the United States to strengthen the expansionary restraint it provides to friendly countries through intercontinental ballistic missiles.
About the United States: The Biden administration of the United States is determined to overwhelm China with cutting-edge technology and to bring its standards to China. Global business will be difficult to establish if companies turn their backs on the United States, so the government must lead companies with ``strategic clarity.''
THAAD: Regarding the deployment of the THAAD system, it is ``clearly our sovereign territory,'' but it is a ``horizontal relationship with China.''
Regarding China: In order to insist on withdrawal of THAAD deployment, China must first withdraw long-range radars deployed near its own borders. Fulfill the agreement to normalize relations between South Korea and China unless additional THAAD deployments are made.
Contents are normal. The impression is that it follows the trend of the latter half of the Park Geun-hye administration. Since it is difficult to win with the current point difference, the focus will be on how concrete this content can be and whether it can create a message that can gather floating votes.
President Yun Seok - Yeol was criticized for not demanding an apology from Japan during Korea Liberation Day! Countries demanding an apology on the day the war ended.
Enthusiasm to repair Japan-Korea relations
A country that expects grudge festival on the day of the end of the war
It is clear that it will change again if the government changes
Promises between Japan and South Korea that have been repeatedly broken
Background of countries that fail to keep their promises
It appears that President Yun Seok-Yeong's speech at Liberation Day is under attack. It is said that he only shouted for freedom 33 times in his speech on Liberation Day, but did not hear a single word demanding an apology on the 77th anniversary of Liberation Day.
In the first place, it can be said that it is abnormal that 77 years have passed and an apology is still being requested at a national ceremony.
Every country holds some type of event on Victory Day or the End of World War Day, but avoid using expressions that suggest that the country is still considered an enemy country. This is a matter of course if there are diplomatic relations, which is international common sense.
Will Israeli President Herzog give a speech on the anniversary of the end of the war, saying that Jews still hold a grudge against Germans? It can be said that this is a completely meaningless political action.
In any case, although President Yun Seok-Yeong's desire to improve Japan-Korea relations is highly commendable, even if we make some kind of promise with him, we have no idea what will happen once his term ends.
In Japan, it has been reported that the agreement between Japan and South Korea was broken during the era of former President Moon Jae-in, but diplomatic relations were restored in 1965, and the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration was issued in 1998, and concrete Japan-Korea exchanges were established. have started, but they are already in an invalid state. The Japan-Korea Joint Declaration collapsed within two years.
In other words, the fact remains that South Korea is not in a position to keep its promises. Therein lies the essential problem. The best-selling book Anti-Japanese Tribalism written by Korean professor Lee Yong-hoon describes anti-Japanese as shamanism that goes beyond logic. It is truly an anti-Japanese religion.
The Sino - Japanese issue is an intergovernmental issue. Japan and South Korea are civic issues. The people of Korea, a democratic country, cannot pretend to be innocent.
The difference between Sino-Japanese relations and Japan-South Korea relations is that Sino-Japanese relations are intergovernmental and Japan-South Korea relations is civic.As with the Takeshima issue, the Senkaku Islands issue is a territorial issue in Sino-Japanese relations.As for anti-Japanese education, both China and Korea have anti-Japanese education, and the two countries in the world are anti-Japanese.Although anti-Japanese, China and South Korea have completely different positions in history.Japan battled with China, and Korea was during the annexation of Japan and Korea, and above all, Japan didn't battle with Korea.
The Japanese do not criticize individual Chinese for the current Sino-Japanese issue.This is because the Chinese do not have the right to vote, and everyone knows that the expansion of the Communist Party of China's Xi Jinping policy is the cause.On the other hand, Japanese comments on Korea have attracted attention to the personality of Koreans.This is because the Japanese understand that the No Japan movement has become a social phenomenon in Korea beyond civic groups and that anti-Japanese education is the foundation of the issue.And most of all, Moon Jae In is a president elected by the people's votes.
It is natural that international relations will change somewhat if the regime changes.However, Moon Jae In hid behind the scenes and used private organizations to carry out anti-Japanese movements in the voice of citizens for political activities and diplomacy.That's all he's done for five years.Has he ever thought about how this would affect him in the future?
China and South Korea are both problematic countries for Japan, but the differences between the two countries need to be observed.
