The new President Yoon Seok - yeol will be confused by many obstacles to its government.The general election will be held in ２０２４.
2022-03-10
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The new government begins in a twisted state
Yoon Seok-yul, the president, will be worried about the distortion with Congress.The Democratic Party which is ruling party has １７２ seats (５８.３１ percent).It is still difficult to determine how the president can implement his policies in this power map.If you look at the presidential authority of the Korean Constitution, there are Articles ５３, ７３ and ７４.Article ７３ is the authority to sign diplomatic treaties and Article ７４ is the command of the military.Article ５３ provides the right to request reconsideration of a parliamentary resolution.Article ４９ states that the bill will be approved by a majority of lawmakers and a majority of those present, but if the president requests reconsideration, it will require a majority of attendance and a ２/３ votes .If the figure is to rise from ５８.３１ percent to ６７ percent, the ruling party will have to add to win ２５ votes in favor.
Will the full launch be after ２０２４
The ruling party's bill is likely to be rejected if it is returned.However, since this is a request for reconsideration of the bill already approved in Congress, the bill submitted by the opposition party "People's Power" is likely to be overthrown by the ruling party in Congress.In other words, Yoon will have to wait for the ２０２４ general election to take effect.Before that, various bills could be rejected by Congress, and the Manifesto incident could be eliminated.In this environment, diplomatic rights such as strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance may be exercised to sign treaties or agreements.
Prime Minister Kishida is also eager to improve relations
Yoon Seok-yeol is also eager to improve relations between Korea and Japan.In response, Prime Minister Kishida said, "It is important to communicate closely with the new president and the new administration in order to restore sound relations based on Japan's consistent position.I want to see the new government's movements in the future and talk to the new government."Yoon Seok-yeol said in her manifesto, "Japan's apology and compensation are the prerequisite for improving relations between Korea and Japan," drawing attention to future developments."
The presidential election that divides the country
In any case, he won the presidential election, but the difference in votes was less than １ percent, ０.７３ percent, and half of the people supported the opposition candidate.
POINT It is difficult to determine how far policies can be implemented with presidential authority alone.Anti-Japanese forces are still strong.
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Kim Koo and Moon Jae In Kim Koo went to North Korea to oppose trust rule and advocate reunification and independence of the two Koreas, but Kim Il Sung did not seem to deal with him.It was also abandoned by the United States.Moon Jae In is very similar.Moon Jae In names Kim Gu as the most respected politician.Do you mean that the right and left sides of Korea are Lee Seung-man and Kim Gu?Either way, they are anti-Japanese.
According to a Korean public opinion poll, the support rates for political parties are 42.4% for both opposition parties, and 39.6% for People's Power.The general election will be held this year.
According to a Korean Realmeter opinion poll conducted in the fourth and fifth weeks of March 2020, the party support rate was 44.6% for the Democratic Party of Korea, and 30.0% for the United Future Party, the predecessor of People's Power. The Realmeter survey results announced on the 15th of this month show that the Democratic Party is 42.4%, and the People's Power is 39.6%.Although the gap has narrowed, the Democratic Party's approval rating has fallen by only 2.2 points. do not have.
In the 2020 survey, 55.7% approved of Moon Jae-in, and in the current survey, 36.3% approved of President Yoon Seok-Yeol. Interpreting these figures literally, expectations for the power of the people in the legislature have increased, but the support rate for the Democratic Party has remained almost unchanged. Both parties are members of the Democratic Party, whose party is led by Lee Jae-myung, who miraculously survived the assassination that everyone thought was a farce and was discharged from the hospital after a long hospitalization. Lee Jae-myung is currently being indicted by prosecutors.
These Democratic Party supporters can be seen as a rock-solid support group that will continue to support any party leader no matter what. Are these people who make a living through trade with China, and whose livelihoods are directly connected to their support for China? South Korea's trade dependence is 81.9% of GDP. The pro-Japanese and pro-American and pro-China and pro-North Korean compositions were one of the themes brought to light by Moon Jae-in, who stirred up the No Japan movement, but the essential issue is the economy. How far has the withdrawal from China's economy progressed?
In the Facebook group of the author who co-authored ``Anti-Japanese Tribalism,'' it is clear that the number of posters and viewers has decreased dramatically since Yun Seok-yeo became president. Is it because the No Japan movement has subsided? In that case, would those people have been better off if the No Japan movement had disappeared? I wonder how many people out there just wish they could drink Japanese beer. In other words, were the pro-Japanese simply rebelling against the intense anti-Japanese movements that were taking place? At least what we can say is that the power of pro-China, pro-North Korean forces does not seem to be weakening.
If we go into the 2024 general election in this state, there is a high possibility that the Democratic Party will once again control the largest number of seats. If this is the case, the Yun Seok-Yue administration will be run in a twisted manner throughout his term. Anti-Japanese issues are also legal issues. South Korea is a country with no anti-Japanese convictions. Since the Democratic Party is the most powerful party in both countries, it is difficult to bring about social change through legislation, and there is a high possibility that an anti-Japanese leftist president will be elected again in the next presidential election.
The Korean won is falling.It exceeded 1,240 won. The reason that Japan must not make promises with the new Korean president prematurely .
The won fell to 1,243 won against the dollar.If the Fed raises interest rates in real terms, it will fall further.The main reason is that Russia's economic prospects are pessimistic. And Yoon Seok-yeol won the presidential election on March 9 and became president on May 10.Yoon called for strengthening the U.S.-South Korea alliance and mentioned the deployment of THAAD.China accounted for 24.8 percent of Korea's exports, twice as much as the U.S., the second largest exporter.When the Park Geun Hye administration decided to deploy THAAD, China imposed severe economic sanctions.China's economic sanctions are only pessimistic for investors, so Korean investment is likely to rise further and the won is likely to fall further.
Next time, South Korea will break its promise with China
The South Korean government is responsible for the Korean government's refusal to allow its nationals to repatriate - Japan protected them out of human rights considerations.
The issue of forced labor and the issue of residents in Japan are related. Conscription on the Korean Peninsula took place from August 1944 until the end of the war the following year. Until then, Koreans on the Korean peninsula were not subject to conscription or conscription. Employment at Japanese companies is highly sought after, and despite being conscripted, Mitsubishi Mining received seven times as many applications as recruitment.
Normally, those living in Japan would be forced to leave because they are foreigners, but the reason why this is not the case is because of the 1965 Japan-Korea Status of Forces Agreement. The South Korean government at the time received a huge amount of aid, but refused to allow its citizens to return home. Since all Koreans in Japan were believed to be slave laborers who had been forcibly taken away from Japan, it would have been inconvenient for a large number of people who had experienced a different reality to return home. Japan restored diplomatic relations out of human rights considerations and guaranteed the Koreans' status in Japan.
As was made clear in the Gunkanjima issue, the recruitment at that time was legal recruitment under ILO standards. In terms of human rights issues, it lies with the South Korean government, which has refused to allow large numbers of its own citizens to return and has discarded them. That is a human rights issue. And what is being made a fuss about all this is the issue of conscripted labor.
Korean tourists rush to travel to Japan after the visa - free ban is lifted - Where did the No Japan movement disappear?
Diplomatic relations restored despite dislike
South Korean government does not communicate details of restoration of diplomatic relations
Same as Japan-Korea annexation
Korean tourists flock to Japan, which they hate
Many Japanese wonder why they restored diplomatic relations if they hated it so much. Did the South Korean government explain to the people the reason for the restoration of diplomatic relations? There could be many reasons.
(1) We have entered an era in which it is essential to restore diplomatic relations between Japan and South Korea amidst postwar South Korea-US relations and international trends. ? Because it was judged that restoring diplomatic relations with Japan would have great economic benefits for the economy, which had suffered after the Korean War. ?The conditions presented by the Japanese side for the restoration of diplomatic relations were beneficial for Korea's future, and the benefits of concluding the treaty were recognized.
? and ? are the prerequisites for the restoration of diplomatic relations, but ? is something that cannot be explained to the public. As a result, its contents have never been explained to this day. South Korea seems to want to be in the position of reluctantly restoring diplomatic relations, but the content of the agreement was almost like a unilateral contract that contained only the benefits for South Korea. If you think about it, the same thing can be said about the annexation of Japan and Korea.
The background to the annexation of Japan and Korea is as follows:
(1) It became impossible to stop Russia's interests. ? Domestic turmoil made it impossible to collect information. ? I thought it would be beneficial to consider national stability by being incorporated into Japan.
Regarding this, the purpose of the above-mentioned annexation is clearly stated in the imperial admonition issued by the Sun Song Dynasty (the last emperor of the Joseon Dynasty) at the time of the annexation, but the story is that Japan annexed it by force. That's the translation.
As a result, during the annexation era, the Korean peninsula reluctantly accepted modernization, its population grew reluctantly, and it reluctantly went to school, and now it reluctantly negotiates with Japan and reluctantly trades with Japan. And I have no choice but to reluctantly go on a trip to Japan. Is the No Japan movement a movement that tells people not to buy Japanese products if they don't want to? It is understandable in that sense, but the government changed and Koreans reluctantly began traveling to Japan.
