The new President Yoon Seok - yeol will be confused by many obstacles to its government.The general election will be held in ２０２４.
2022-03-10
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The new government begins in a twisted state
Yoon Seok-yul, the president, will be worried about the distortion with Congress.The Democratic Party which is ruling party has １７２ seats (５８.３１ percent).It is still difficult to determine how the president can implement his policies in this power map.If you look at the presidential authority of the Korean Constitution, there are Articles ５３, ７３ and ７４.Article ７３ is the authority to sign diplomatic treaties and Article ７４ is the command of the military.Article ５３ provides the right to request reconsideration of a parliamentary resolution.Article ４９ states that the bill will be approved by a majority of lawmakers and a majority of those present, but if the president requests reconsideration, it will require a majority of attendance and a ２/３ votes .If the figure is to rise from ５８.３１ percent to ６７ percent, the ruling party will have to add to win ２５ votes in favor.
Will the full launch be after ２０２４
The ruling party's bill is likely to be rejected if it is returned.However, since this is a request for reconsideration of the bill already approved in Congress, the bill submitted by the opposition party "People's Power" is likely to be overthrown by the ruling party in Congress.In other words, Yoon will have to wait for the ２０２４ general election to take effect.Before that, various bills could be rejected by Congress, and the Manifesto incident could be eliminated.In this environment, diplomatic rights such as strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance may be exercised to sign treaties or agreements.
Prime Minister Kishida is also eager to improve relations
Yoon Seok-yeol is also eager to improve relations between Korea and Japan.In response, Prime Minister Kishida said, "It is important to communicate closely with the new president and the new administration in order to restore sound relations based on Japan's consistent position.I want to see the new government's movements in the future and talk to the new government."Yoon Seok-yeol said in her manifesto, "Japan's apology and compensation are the prerequisite for improving relations between Korea and Japan," drawing attention to future developments."
The presidential election that divides the country
In any case, he won the presidential election, but the difference in votes was less than １ percent, ０.７３ percent, and half of the people supported the opposition candidate.
POINT It is difficult to determine how far policies can be implemented with presidential authority alone.Anti-Japanese forces are still strong.
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Korea claims that the Korean Peninsula has been modernized even without the Japanese rule: Korea does not know the prerequisites for modernization
There was a YouTube video by a pro-Japanese Korean who showed South Korean youth photos of the country before and after the Japanese occupation, showing the state of development at that time. The performers were all surprised and said it was the first time they had seen it, and they were also surprised to hear that the population had doubled and lifespans had doubled.
However, they all said that although it is clear that the country developed during the Japanese colonial era, it is still true that Japan invaded. He was unable to explain the counterargument that the Korean Peninsula would have developed even without Japan.
The photo of a unicycle ridden by yangban (Korean aristocrats) is interestingly introduced as a photo of the time before development, but as I have posted in the past, this one photo explains everything about this answer. . At that time, there was no technology to make wheels on the Korean Peninsula. And four slaves are supporting a unicycle.
Modernization was triggered by the Industrial Revolution, and the Industrial Revolution was a revolution in power, and the steam engine was a mechanism and machine that transferred large amounts of energy to gears and converted it into another repetitive motion. If you can't make wheels, it's impossible to make any industrial machinery. However, this is a technical matter, and even if one were able to learn how to make one and create one, it would be impossible to modernize it.
A necessary condition for the industrial revolution is that a mobile labor force, the proletariat, must exist in society. Production becomes possible only when the labor force is replenished in industries that can develop. In the society of the time, where slaves were slaves to the yangban, this would have been impossible. These are things that always come up when explaining the industrial revolution.
The Meiji Restoration abolished the shogunate system and liberated citizens from the land, creating a mobile labor force. It was Kim Ok-gyun who tried to achieve these goals on the Korean peninsula, but the Gashin Coup failed and Kim Ok-gyun defected to Japan, but was assassinated in Shanghai. Unless the class system can be abolished from within the Korean peninsula, modernization will never be possible.
severance of diplomatic relations betwee There are many people in both Japan and South Korea calling for a break in diplomatic relations, but I thought that a break in diplomatic relations between Japan and South Korea should be expected from the beginning after the recruitment ruling and the exclusion of White countries.Former Prime Minister Abe already expressed his opinion on July 3, 2019, that the exclusion of White Country was not retaliation for the recruitment ruling, but a failure to keep his promise between countries.The 1965 Agreement is an agreement on claims in the treaty in which Japan and South Korea restored diplomatic relations.Abolition of this agreement is a loss of the premise of diplomatic relations, and it is obvious that diplomatic relations will break off.
Now, considering the specific problems of breaking off diplomatic relations at the private level, the video link I posted is a couple of Japanese and Taiwanese Youtuber.If private marriage is allowed, private economic activities are allowed.Strategic materials and military-related products that must be negotiated between governments will be regulated.It would be a substantial break in diplomatic relations if we could not communicate with each other at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics.
On the other hand, countries without diplomatic relations have no further interests and do not lead to war.It is not the break of diplomatic relations that is in danger, but the travel ban order.Japan has a special relationship called Taiwan.The lack of intergovernmental exchanges has never been a problem at the private level.
Promise between Japan and Korea If you read the Korean news, They say that Japan and South Korea are using the Tokyo Olympics for political purposes, but they are not objective.This is because Japan has not done anything this time either.Prime minister Suga has done nothing but say that Moon Jae In will respond politely if she comes to Japan.Japan's attitude has not changed consistently, and the message has been conveyed to South Korea many times.Correction of violations of the 1965 Agreement, which was the basis for the restoration of diplomatic relations.This is all Japan has demanded, so there is no bargaining or anything.It was Moon Jae In who underestimated the issue and played tricks on it.
In addition, there are opinions that Japan and South Korea need to compromise and that the leaders of the two countries need to make a decision, but if Japan obscures the 1965 agreement, it will mean a break in diplomatic relations.The reason is that the agreement, which is a prerequisite for diplomatic relations, should be scrapped.The biggest problem is that the Korean people do not understand this and form public opinion.In other words, Japan will not budge an inch from implementing the 1965 agreement to prevent the South Korean government from breaking off diplomatic relations.In this respect, the act of drawing concessions from Japan itself is far from maintaining diplomatic relations.
Yun Seok - yue's manifesto aims to attract and circulate capital through a free economy.Will the National Assembly become a burden that hinders this?
South Korea is wavering between pro-China and pro-US
Original regime change through social policy
A country that thinks about what is better
Yin Seok-yue promotes free economy
Promoting free competition within the country and moving towards CPTPP
Legal development by the Diet is hopeless
Is South Korea wondering whether it should join China, which has achieved growth in recent years, or join the camp of free nations such as Japan, the United States, and Europe? I guess it's a question of which is better, but it seems like a very polarizing choice.
The Moon Jae-in administration completely abandoned its pride as a democratic country without hesitation and spent five years desperately trying to join China and North Korea, a country that violates human rights at its worst, but unfortunately there was no result. Ta.
The new president, Yun Seok-Yeol, has the exact opposite policy, aiming for Korea to be a member of the Japan-U.S. and liberal camp. This seems to be the composition of the right-wing and left-wing forces in South Korea.
The left tends to seek the enhancement of social institutions, while the right tends to seek free competition and liberal democracy. This is a question of the balance between social welfare and liberal economics, and a debate about competition versus distribution. This is an issue to be debated within a democratic country, and can be said to be a universal frame.
America's two-party system is very easy to understand. Republicans and Democrats can be broadly divided on the question of whether taxes should be primarily used for public welfare, or whether they should reduce taxes in the first place and increase competitiveness in a free economy. It is also expressed in the framework of big government and small government.
The choice of domestic social policy is not a question of which country will benefit you by following, but rather a matter of foreign policy. Prior to Japan's annexation of South Korea, there was intense conflict between pro-Russian and pro-Japanese factions on the Korean peninsula. Is nothing different from that era? Another characteristic of South Korea is that its foreign policy is also its domestic policy.
Looking at Yun Seok-Yue's manifesto from the perspective of economic policy, his economic policy is to bring back the capital that fled South Korea under the Moon Jae-in administration.
In particular, the focus is not on where to focus investment and foster industry, but rather the policy appears to be aimed at attracting investors by abolishing regulations and promoting a free economy and free competition.
It appears that the plan is to aim to join the CPTPP and other liberal nation frameworks based on this liberal economic frame, but in order to realize this, it will be necessary to obstruct the various free competitions that exist within Korea. Legislation must be put in place to abolish the regulations that apply.
This is the job of the National Diet, the legislative branch, but the opposition Democratic Party of Japan still holds nearly 60% of the seats. In other words, there are many hurdles for the time being in the economic policy advocated by Yun Seok-Yeol and cooperation with liberal countries. In other words, we will have to wait for the 2024 general election.
The Korean won is falling.It exceeded 1,240 won. The reason that Japan must not make promises with the new Korean president prematurely .
The won fell to 1,243 won against the dollar.If the Fed raises interest rates in real terms, it will fall further.The main reason is that Russia's economic prospects are pessimistic. And Yoon Seok-yeol won the presidential election on March 9 and became president on May 10.Yoon called for strengthening the U.S.-South Korea alliance and mentioned the deployment of THAAD.China accounted for 24.8 percent of Korea's exports, twice as much as the U.S., the second largest exporter.When the Park Geun Hye administration decided to deploy THAAD, China imposed severe economic sanctions.China's economic sanctions are only pessimistic for investors, so Korean investment is likely to rise further and the won is likely to fall further.
Next time, South Korea will break its promise with China
