Public opinion without examining Abenomics - there is no point in criticizing it based on contradictory premises.
2024-01-08
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Abenomics three arrows
There are some surveys and opinions in public opinion that Abenomics has ruined Japan, but is that true? First of all, what is Abenomics? Were you asking people who answered the same question as in the poll, or were you asking people you didn't know? I wonder if asking someone I don't know will give me the results I expected. First, let's review the three arrows of Abenomics.
Three arrows of Abenomics
Bold monetary policy
Flexible fiscal policy
Growth strategy to stimulate private investment Monetary policy is still ongoing, but former Prime Minister Abe has said that the consumption tax increase was decided in advance and was carried out at a time when it could not be postponed, so he was unable to fire a second arrow. In other words, Abenomics is actually the first arrow in a variety of environments. In other words, I would understand if there was an evaluation of the fact that it did not advance to the second stage, but I have doubts about evaluating Abenomics itself.
Results are rarely published
Next, I will list some of the achievements of Abenomics.
Main achievements of Abenomics
The total national and local tax revenue will reach a record high of １０７ trillion yen in fiscal ２０１９, up from ７８.７ trillion yen in fiscal ２０１２.
The stock price, which was around ８,０００ yen, rose to over ２４,０００ yen under the Abe administration.
Public pension investment profits increased by ５７.６ trillion yen in seven and a half years.
The effective job opening ratio was ８３ job openings for every １００ people in ２０１２, and １６４ job openings for every １００ people in ２０１９.
Business operators improved their treatment due to the labor shortage. The minimum hourly wage rose from ７４９ yen in ２０１２ to ９０１ yen in ２０１９.
The rate of children from single-parent households going on to university increased significantly from ２３.９% to ４１.９%. Sanaenomics three arrows
Sanaenomics (Japanese Economic Resilience Plan) will be published. Representative Sanae Takaichi announced a policy to carry on Abenomics during the last presidential election.
Sanaenomics three arrows
Financial easing
Flexible fiscal stimulus in times of emergency
Bold crisis management investment/growth investment What they have in common is that monetary easing policy will continue, and if the Takauchi Cabinet is elected, the government will implement aggressive fiscal policy.
The Japanese government had no balance sheet
The fact that the Japanese government's balance sheet was introduced for the first time in １９９５ means that the Japanese government did not have the concept of strategic investment, which companies take for granted. How can you invest without a balance sheet or cash flow statement? It was only a matter of being able to compare the income and expenditure for a single year, or the previous year. The term "primary balance" has come to be used like crazy. At that time, Japan believed that deregulation would revive the economy, and the government repeatedly took the approach of relaxing regulations through legal revisions.
Dual structure of industrial transfer and wages
As a result, the Japanese government was unable to rebuild the national economy or make strategic investments for economic growth after the collapse of the bubble, which was an unprecedented economic crisis. More than ３０ years have passed since we stubbornly closed the doors. Then, companies moved their manufacturing sectors to emerging countries, and GDP and tax revenues mainly went to neighboring countries such as China, creating a dual wage structure of dispatched labor in order to prevent an increase in the number of unemployed people in Japan. . The economic disparity that arose from this process is said to be one of the causes of the current declining birthrate.
Choosing the next president based on policy
So, has Abenomics ruined Japan? Would that also mean denying Sanaenomics? Or will we continue to turn down investments from the government as we have been doing, paying close attention to the primary balance under the guidance of the Ministry of Finance and listening to the beautiful words of fiscal consolidation? The point of contention should be to gather opinions on whether or not bold fiscal spending by the government is necessary. In any case, regardless of whether the policy is better or not, there are parts where it seems like the point at issue is not policy at all, but just an extension of a personal attack, which is unfortunate.
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Prime Minister Kishida sends off his visit to Yasukuni Shrine - a place beyond Japan's sovereignty.
I will not visit Yasukuni again this year
Current Prime Minister visited Yasukuni Shrine after the war
Where no incumbent national leader can step foot?
Yasukuni Shrine is not a border issue
Violation of national sovereignty, not historical issues
Historical issues cannot be resolved without sovereignty
Prime Minister Kishida refrained from visiting Yasukuni Shrine and paid the tamagushi fee with his own funds. Some people in other countries even think that Yasukuni Shrine is located outside of Japan. This is because the leaders of a country cannot imagine that there are public places within their country that they cannot set foot in.
[Current Prime Minister who visited Yasukuni Shrine after the war]
The 43rd King Higashikuninomiya Toshihiko
The 44th Kijuro Shidehara
45th, 48th-51st Shigeru Yoshida
56th-57th Nobusuke Kishi
58th-60th Hayato Ikeda
61st-63rd Eisaku Sato
64th-65th Kakuei Tanaka
66th Takeo Miki
The 67th Takeo Fukuda
68th-69th Masayoshi Ohira
70th Yoshiyuki Suzuki
71st-73rd Yasuhiro Nakasone
82nd-83rd Ryutaro Hashimoto
87th-89th Junichiro Koizumi
90th and 96th Shinzo Abe
Will President Xi Jinping be able to visit Taiwan? I wonder if it can't be done? People from outside would normally think that if it can't be done in the first place, then it's not China. A sitting president cannot set foot in certain parts of the United States. Everyone would think that this is an area beyond the reach of American sovereignty.
In areas and islands with territorial disputes near borders, there are places where national leaders cannot set foot. In Japan, these include Takeshima, the Senkaku Islands, and the Northern Territories. However, former South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has landed on Takeshima, and former Russian Prime Minister Medvedev has visited Etorofu Island. Their only purpose is to assert national sovereignty.
Let's say that the reason the Japanese prime minister does not visit these areas is to avoid border disputes. But Yasukuni Shrine is located in Tokyo, the capital of Japan.
Before discussing what the Yasukuni issue is, the problem is that it obscures the fact that it is under the sovereignty of the Japanese state. In other words, other countries are restricting Japan's sovereignty by giving orders to the current leader, the prime minister, to visit public facilities in the capital of Japan. Yasukuni Shrine is originally a Japanese religious facility within Japan, and anyone is welcome to visit it.
Whether or not it is a problem because it enshrines a class A war criminal is not for other countries to decide in the first place. This can also be said to be Japan's decision under its sovereignty as a nation. It would be different if Yasukuni Shrine was located in China or South Korea.
Will increased defense spending enable Japan to create innovations never seen before? - Amendment to Article 9 of the Constitution, revival of the military industry, and technological development.
Aims after constitutional amendment
Japan becomes a military power
The history of weapon development is a history of technological innovation
A world of innovation that cannot be imagined in everyday life
Japan should revise Article 9 of its constitution and revive its military industry. As I recall, Congressman Takaichi was the first member of the Diet to speak clearly about this issue. Amendments to Article 9 of the Constitution will expand Japan's military power and increase its defense capabilities, which will greatly reduce the risk of war. My personal opinion from the beginning has been that simply reducing the risk is a failure, and that technological innovation will be born by developing various military technologies in the name of military budgets.
If that happens, there will be countries and people who ridicule Japan's efforts to become a military power and try to get in the way, but it would be better to say clearly, ``Japan will become a military power.'' No engineer is aiming for second or third place in the technological development competition. When it comes to Japanese technology, it is normal to aim for the top in the world. Too many people think that if they developed a weapon, they would be murderers.
What exactly are the bronze tools used for thousands of years BC? It is a weapon and a vessel. What is iron? This is also used as a weapon, agricultural tool, and various decorations. These processing techniques were developed to defeat the enemy in war. Countries that acquired these processing techniques gained supremacy over their regions and acquired cultures such as bronzeware and iron-related crafts.
What exactly is an aircraft? Don't stop thinking just because the Wright Brothers achieved their dream of flying. The development of airplanes progressed with the investment of national funds for use in the war, making them faster, safer, lighter, and larger, and they were put into practical use during World War I. What exactly are passenger planes commonly used today? Grumman and Boeing are in the military industry.
Hitler was passionate about automobile development and invested a large amount of state funds. At that time, automobiles were the pinnacle of industrial technology, and were connected to the drive and performance of military vehicles and tanks. Winning in automobile races increased national prestige. Why are BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, and Volks still so strong?During this era, Germany won the technological competition.
What are nuclear weapons? A bomb that uses the enormous energy released during nuclear fission. So what is a nuclear power plant? The electricity for the PC I am currently using is also generated by nuclear power.
Is the country that developed the coronavirus vaccine a medical technology powerhouse? Completely different. These are countries that conduct military research into bacterial and viral weapons.
The technology to defeat the enemy in war is a technological innovation for survival that assumes the extraordinary, and has no taboos. Human history has proven that this is a field where innovations and paradigm shifts that cannot occur in everyday life can occur in the sense of achieving a goal using various methods. In other words, Japan should seriously aim to become a military power. This is because, at the same time, unimaginable technological innovations that can be used for peaceful purposes will be born.
Just because there is a labor shortage doesn't mean it's okay to collect labor from anywhere - let alone anti - Japanese countries.
Even if we overcome deflation and restore international competitiveness through the fiscal stimulus advocated by the late Mr. Abe and Mr. Takaichi, and even if the total amount of money increases and wages rise, if the economy becomes rich, this means that domestic production will rise. , it is said that even with the current production volume, it will no longer be possible to make things as the population declines, so if the production volume increases, there will be an even greater shortage of personnel.
The current dual wage structure for dispatched workers is simply a measure to compensate for the domestic unemployment rate by relocating production bases to emerging countries due to the strong yen. On the other hand, if the yen depreciates, it will become possible to move production bases back to Japan, and some companies have actually returned to Japan amid the current depreciation of the yen. If production bases return, GDP and tax revenue will increase.
In other words, this is the economic growth that the people want, but what is crucially lacking is human resources. It is difficult to believe that Japan's industrial structure, which is dominated by manufacturing, will be easily replaced by AI. While Japan's competitiveness will increase if Abenomics and Mr. Takaichi's economic policies are implemented, I imagine that it will also lead to a shortage of labor in Japan.
Although there was a shortage of soldiers during the Greater East Asia War, it is said that only about 1.6% of recruited soldiers from the peninsula were able to join the Japanese army. If they don't understand the Japanese language, Japanese culture, or the purpose of war, the entire unit will suffer. Even Japanese women were able to work under the Women's Volunteer Corps Ordinance after passing various hurdles, and those who passed were given the approval of the local governor at the time.
There are people in Europe and America who think it would be a good idea to make immigrants and illegal immigrants work, but do they want to make the same mistakes and go down the path of creating social unrest? If human resources are absolutely necessary, the host countries should be limited by considering cultural background, historical and diplomatic compatibility, and Japan should even be involved in the education of Japanese language and culture. It would be better to abandon ideas such as procuring labor from countries that provide anti-Japanese education now.
How many natural resources are there in the waters near Japan? Possibility of Japan including EEZ.
Trauma of Japan, a country without resources
Japan's area is not small
Is Japan 52.4% of mainland China?
Rare earths, oil, these are just the beginning
Cabinet Secretariat “The Future of the Sea”
Are undersea resources a treasure trove to save Japan?
Japan is in a state where it can be said that marine resource development is almost untouched. As a country lacking in natural resources, it relies on foreign sources for many natural resources, including oil. During World War II, Japan was surrounded by ABCD as a country with no natural resources, and was in a situation similar to a food raid. They lost the war due to America's overwhelming amount of supplies. One cannot help but wonder why marine resource development did not progress after the war. Since we lost the war because we didn't have the resources, there may be many people who argue that searching for resources means starting another war, but this is a completely different story.
Japan's land area is 380,000 km2, ranking it 62nd out of 196 countries in the world. Japanese people tend to think of Japan as a small country because they tend to focus on top-tier countries such as the United States, China, and Russia, but Germany, Finland, and Poland are smaller in area. However, Japan is a maritime nation. When looking at the total of territorial sea, contiguous zone, and EEZ, Japan ranks 6th in the world in terms of ocean area with 4.47 million km2. And if you add the extended continental shelf, it is 4.65 million km2. If Japan's land area is added to this, the area that Japan can independently mine is 5.03 million km2.
China is covered by countries such as Japan and Taiwan, and there are few oceans that China occupies. That's why they dream of expanding into the ocean, but China's land area is 9.6 million km2, and in fact, including the sea, Japan has about 52.4% of mainland China. is. Because China has a large land area, natural resources and oil are mined. However, Japan's seabed resources are still unknown.
In 2018, researchers from Waseda University and Tokyo University discovered that hundreds of years' worth of global demand for rare earths, which are essential for manufacturing precision equipment, is found on the ocean floor around Minamitorishima in the Ogasawara Islands. This was discovered through the team's investigation. A research team from Ibaraki University and Hokkaido University has announced that one of the world's largest oil fields may lie dormant off the coast of Ibaraki Prefecture's Goura coast in 2020.
Cabinet Secretariat Ocean Policy Headquarters Secretariat “The Future of the Sea” Excerpt
The Basic Law on Ocean Policy was enacted in April 2007 and came into effect in July of the same year. The Basic Law on Ocean Policy outlines the basic philosophy of harmonizing the development and use of the ocean with the conservation of the marine environment, as well as the responsibilities of the national and local governments. It also stipulates that a Basic Ocean Policy Plan be established approximately every five years, and that the Ocean Policy Headquarters, headed by the Prime Minister, be established in the Cabinet. The current Basic Plan on Ocean Policy, which was approved by the Cabinet in April 2013, clarifies ``the vision of Japan as a maritime nation'' and sets out initiatives that should be prioritized in light of changes in the social situation regarding the ocean. and indicates the direction of ocean-related measures. It also specifically describes the efforts that the government should comprehensively and systematically implement over a period of approximately five years in the 12 areas specified as "basic measures" in the Basic Act on Ocean Policy. The existence of energy and mineral resources such as oil, natural gas, methane hydrate, and submarine hydrothermal deposits has been confirmed in Japan's territorial waters, EEZ, and continental shelf, and the possibility of Japan becoming a resource superpower is hidden.
The 2007 Basic Law on Ocean Policy was formulated during the first Abe Cabinet, and Japan's exploration of seabed resources went into full swing. What if Japan becomes a resource-rich nation? I would never have thought of that. Because Japan is a small country... No. There is a high possibility that there will be a breakthrough in undersea exploration. There may come a time when Japanese people don't have to work so hard.
Three years of Japanese and Russian people living together in the Northern Territories - Return of the territory and current residents
Japan's territorial issues include Takeshima, the Senkaku Islands, and the Northern Territories. These three regions are completely different geopolitically, historically, in the relationship between the two countries, and in the process by which problems arise. To put the issue of the Northern Territories simply, Japan announced its surrender on August 15th, but it was officially announced on September 2nd that the Soviet Union later ratified the Potsdam Declaration, but it was not accepted internationally outside of the United States, Britain, China, and the Soviet Union. April 28, 1952, the day the San Francisco Peace Treaty went into effect. During that time, the former Soviet Union invaded and annexed the Northern Territories.
It was in 1948 that the Soviet Union ordered deportation to the Japanese islanders, so there was a period of about three years from 1945 when Soviet soldiers, Soviet immigrants, and Japanese people lived together. It is very interesting to hear the testimonies of Japanese islanders from that era.
``Russians were big and scary.'' ``Soldiers came to my house with shoes on and guns, and they said, ``Watch, watch!'' So I thought it was something, so I handed him the watch, and he said, ``Harasho, harasho,'' and was happy. So I went home.
Russian children were cute and cute and looked like angels. Her eyes were so white and big, and her green eyes were cute like a cat's. Japanese and Russian children played together, going back and forth to each other's homes. This is the testimony of former islanders and Japanese people.
I believe that former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the first prime minister to ask the Japanese people, who are demanding the return of the Northern Territories, where about 17,000 people currently live, whether they should expel the Russians currently living there. The Japanese people living in the Northern Territories at the time continued to demand the return of their territory, but the Russians living there never asked them to leave or take away their homes.
