Public opinion without examining Abenomics - there is no point in criticizing it based on contradictory premises.
2024-01-08
Category:Japan
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Abenomics three arrows
There are some surveys and opinions in public opinion that Abenomics has ruined Japan, but is that true? First of all, what is Abenomics? Were you asking people who answered the same question as in the poll, or were you asking people you didn't know? I wonder if asking someone I don't know will give me the results I expected. First, let's review the three arrows of Abenomics.
Three arrows of Abenomics
Bold monetary policy
Flexible fiscal policy
Growth strategy to stimulate private investment
Monetary policy is still ongoing, but former Prime Minister Abe has said that the consumption tax increase was decided in advance and was carried out at a time when it could not be postponed, so he was unable to fire a second arrow. In other words, Abenomics is actually the first arrow in a variety of environments. In other words, I would understand if there was an evaluation of the fact that it did not advance to the second stage, but I have doubts about evaluating Abenomics itself.
Results are rarely published
Next, I will list some of the achievements of Abenomics.
Main achievements of Abenomics
The total national and local tax revenue will reach a record high of 107 trillion yen in fiscal 2019, up from 78.7 trillion yen in fiscal 2012.
The stock price, which was around 8,000 yen, rose to over 24,000 yen under the Abe administration.
Public pension investment profits increased by 57.6 trillion yen in seven and a half years.
The effective job opening ratio was 83 job openings for every 100 people in 2012, and 164 job openings for every 100 people in 2019.
Business operators improved their treatment due to the labor shortage. The minimum hourly wage rose from 749 yen in 2012 to 901 yen in 2019.
The rate of children from single-parent households going on to university increased significantly from 23.9% to 41.9%.
Sanaenomics three arrows
Sanaenomics (Japanese Economic Resilience Plan) will be published. Representative Sanae Takaichi announced a policy to carry on Abenomics during the last presidential election.
Sanaenomics three arrows
Financial easing
Flexible fiscal stimulus in times of emergency
Bold crisis management investment/growth investment
What they have in common is that monetary easing policy will continue, and if the Takauchi Cabinet is elected, the government will implement aggressive fiscal policy.
The Japanese government had no balance sheet
The fact that the Japanese government's balance sheet was introduced for the first time in 1995 means that the Japanese government did not have the concept of strategic investment, which companies take for granted. How can you invest without a balance sheet or cash flow statement? It was only a matter of being able to compare the income and expenditure for a single year, or the previous year. The term "primary balance" has come to be used like crazy. At that time, Japan believed that deregulation would revive the economy, and the government repeatedly took the approach of relaxing regulations through legal revisions.
Dual structure of industrial transfer and wages
As a result, the Japanese government was unable to rebuild the national economy or make strategic investments for economic growth after the collapse of the bubble, which was an unprecedented economic crisis. More than 30 years have passed since we stubbornly closed the doors. Then, companies moved their manufacturing sectors to emerging countries, and GDP and tax revenues mainly went to neighboring countries such as China, creating a dual wage structure of dispatched labor in order to prevent an increase in the number of unemployed people in Japan. . The economic disparity that arose from this process is said to be one of the causes of the current declining birthrate.
Choosing the next president based on policy
So, has Abenomics ruined Japan? Would that also mean denying Sanaenomics? Or will we continue to turn down investments from the government as we have been doing, paying close attention to the primary balance under the guidance of the Ministry of Finance and listening to the beautiful words of fiscal consolidation? The point of contention should be to gather opinions on whether or not bold fiscal spending by the government is necessary. In any case, regardless of whether the policy is better or not, there are parts where it seems like the point at issue is not policy at all, but just an extension of a personal attack, which is unfortunate.
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[related article]
Quad's strategy is geopolitically rational; simply dispersing the Chinese military will give it an advantage.
China causing border problems in all directions
Military expenditure is just the total amount
Regional dispersion reduces military strength by half
Chinese encirclement should be strengthened
China has long borders and its strategy should be to engage in peaceful diplomacy with neighboring countries, but for some reason the opposite is true for that country. In that respect, the United States is smart and has formed a North American alliance with Canada and Mexico, and among the countries with which they share borders, I think Russia is the only hostile element.
China is so selfish that it is happy to make enemies in all directions, but Quad is outwitting them. Comparing military expenditures by country is helpful, but it is on a different level from practical ability.
In large countries, military power is dispersed. Will Yunnan's soldiers and tanks be able to participate in the fighting in Fujian? Even if it is counted as military expenditure, it is not a real military force.
If Japan, the United States, and Taiwan cooperate in the event of a Taiwanese emergency, many Chinese forces will head there, but what will happen if the Indian army invades the Kashmir region during that time?Australia, Vietnam, and the Philippines will suppress the Spratly Islands. be able to.
South Korea's geographical advantage in the Quad lies in its operations in the Northeast, but Moon Jae-in seems unable to understand this at all. In the event of a Taiwanese emergency, it would be a good idea for countries with border issues with China to close their borders one after another.
Internationally important elections will be held in 2024 - Japanese politics will be greatly influenced by these.
2024 is X-year. The US presidential election will be followed by the Taiwanese presidential election, Russian presidential election, and South Korean general election. The Russian presidential election is likely to be a close call, but everything else will have a big impact on Japan.
In Taiwan's presidential election, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has a slight lead, with the Kuomintang and People's Party trailing behind. The third party, the People's Party, has many points in common with the Democratic Progressive Party, but it is a strange party in that it receives political donations from China. There is no movement yet, but if the Kuomintang and the People's Party join together at the last minute, the Democratic Progressive Party will be completely defeated.
The Nationalist Party has made it clear that it will maintain the 92 common sense, which means that it will maintain the "one China principle." If pro-China forces win, the result will likely be the same as in Hong Kong.
South Korea's president is said to be a right-wing national force, but the majority of the National Assembly is left-wing and both Democrats. The majority of the National Assembly will be the pro-China, pro-North Korea, anti-American, anti-Japanese parties we witnessed during the Moon Jae-in era. If this party wins the general election, an anti-Japanese leftist president will be elected again in the next presidential election.
The big event in 2024 will be the US presidential election. If Biden, the Democratic Party of the United States, were to win here, the environment surrounding Japan would shift to the left, and Japan's cabinet would also become left-handed. China's One Belt, One Road initiative may end in failure, but the Free and Open Indo-Pacific concept advocated by former Prime Minister Abe will also become a mere shell.
On the other hand, if the Democratic Progressive Party wins in Taiwan, the power of the people wins in South Korea, and Trump becomes President of the United States, will Japanese politics become right-wing? At that time, the Indo-Pacific concept will progress and a prime minister will be needed to take over the initiative. Is today's Japan simply being swept away without being able to exert its influence even in Asia?
Does Japan procure labor from anti - Japanese countries? - Are you not considering the issues of immigration policy?
It is said that Europe and the United States are reconsidering their immigration policies due to failures, but the United States views immigration from South America as a problem with guns and drugs, not immigration from Canada or Europe. When considered as a white group, they tend to have a lower birthrate, and it is predicted that white people will become a minority in the United States by 2060.
If Europe is facing social unrest due to immigration from Muslim countries, it is certain that this will happen if it accepts immigrants from countries that can be described as hostile religions. In Europe, the periphery means Islamic countries or Africa due to location. However, travel and work within the EU are basically free, so EU countries accept foreigners. The reality is that the West is trying to prevent immigration from dangerous countries.
What is fatal for Japan is that historically it has not been blessed with neighboring countries. If Japan had the issue of which country to procure labor from based on this kind of thinking, then it would be a crazy idea to bring labor from a country that routinely provides anti-Japanese education to its citizens. There are members of parliament.
In Asia, at least in terms of cultural background and religion, there are countries that believe in Buddhism, countries that have an affinity with the Japanese imperial family as a kingdom, have a good level of education, are pro-Japanese countries, and have a strong acceptance of Japan. It would be desirable if there could be collaboration that would allow Japan to be involved with educational institutions in partner countries.
In any case, Japan's efforts to combat the declining birthrate will be over once the second baby boom generation fails to have children. Even if the competitiveness of Japanese companies increases due to the weak yen, they will not be able to bring their production bases back to Japan, and on the other hand, if they continue to flow to other countries, their GDP and tax revenues will simply become income for other countries.
Notes, condolence telegrams, and messages of condolence from leaders of various countries regarding the death of former Prime Minister Abe (added sequentially)
We will only post articles by current and past heads of state, prime ministers, etc. I will omit things at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs level. Since condolences also include posts on SNS, they will be written as "notebook," "condolence telegram," and "condolence message."
President Biden [United States of America] (bookkeeper)"It's a loss, not just to my family and the people of Japan, but to the world. A man of peace and decency, you will be missed." li>
Former President Trump [United States] (condolences)``His assassination is unforgivable. It's not just an atrocity, it's a tremendous loss to the entire world.'' ``He was a great leader. "A tough negotiator." "He has worked tirelessly for peace, freedom, and the irreplaceable bond between the United States and Japan." "I hope that we will pay a swift and heavy price for robbing the Earth of a great being. I wish.”
President Putin [Russia] (condolence telegram)“Respected Yoko AbeRespected Akie AbeYour son and husband Shinzo Abe We would like to express our deepest condolences on the passing of Mr. An outstanding politician who led the Japanese government for a long period of time at the hands of criminals and left many achievements in the development of good neighborly relations between Russia and Japan. I had regular contact with Shinzo, where his great personal and professional qualities were in full bloom.My memories of this remarkable man are the same as his. will remain forever in the hearts of everyone who knew him.With respect, Vladimir Putin"
President Tsai Ing-wen [Taiwan] (colored paper notes)“Taiwan’s eternal good friend, your contribution to Taiwan-Japan friendship and to democracy, freedom, human rights, and peace around the world. Thank you.”
Queen Elizabeth [Commonwealth] (condolence address to His Majesty the Emperor)“Our family is deeply saddened by the sudden and painful passing of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. It was clear that he loved him and wanted to strengthen his ties with Britain even closer than ever before. My deepest sympathies and sympathies go out to his family and to everyone in Japan."
Prime Minister Boris Johnson [United Kingdom] (Condolences)“Very sad news about former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.The global leadership he demonstrated during these unprecedented times is... He will be remembered by many. Our thoughts are with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's family, friends and the people of Japan. Britain stands with you at this dark and sad time."
President Xi Jinping [China] (Condolences, Condolences)“On behalf of the Chinese government and the Chinese people, and in my own name, I would like to express my condolences to the untimely death of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. We express our ``deepest condolences'' and extend our condolences to Prime Minister Abe's bereaved family. "I once reached an important agreement with him on building Sino-Japanese relations that meet the requirements of a new era. I deeply regret his sudden death." "I will continue to work with the Prime Minister. We would like to continue to develop good neighborly relations and friendly cooperation between Japan and China in accordance with the principles established in the four Japan-China political documents.''
Prime Minister Modi [India] (Condolences)“I am shocked and saddened beyond words by the tragic passing of one of my closest friends. "He was a world-class statesman and an outstanding leader." "We met again on a recent visit to Japan and discussed many issues. He was as witty and insightful as always. I never expected it to happen.'' ``To express our deep respect to Mr. Abe, the nation will mourn on the 9th.''
President Phuc [Vietnam] (Book)“We deeply mourn Mr. Shinzo Abe, a leader of international renown and a great and dear friend of Vietnam.”
Former President Duterte [Philippines] (Condolences)``I feel extremely regretful and deeply saddened to learn of the untimely death of my dear friend, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.'' I join the people of Japan in mourning the death of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and condemn this senseless act of violence." "Former Prime Minister Abe was not only the first foreign leader to visit the Philippines after my presidential election, but he also visited Davao City. He was also the only foreign leader to visit my home in Japan.'' ``I will always feel that former Prime Minister Abe is close to my heart, and I will cherish the time we spent together.''
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong [Singapore] (condolences)``I just had lunch with Mr. Abe in Tokyo in May.'' ``I am deeply shocked and saddened.'' .”
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha [Kingdom of Thailand] (condolences)``He was talented, intelligent, and experienced,'' ``He played an important role in promoting friendly relations between the two countries,'' ``For many years, Over the years, he has worked to strengthen the relationship between Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).''
President Joko Widodo [Indonesia] (Condolences)“We offer our deepest condolences to the deceased former Prime Minister Abe.”
Prime Minister Hun Sen [Cambodia] (condolences)``I am deeply shocked and deeply saddened'' ``Mr. Abe was an outstanding figure who contributed to peace, stability and prosperity in the region. Politician.''
President Yun Seok-Yeol [South Korea] (condolence telegram)“I would like to express my condolences to the bereaved family and the Japanese people for the loss of a respected politician who was the longest-serving prime minister in the history of Japanese constitutional history. I would like to express my condolences.'' → What does it mean to be respected? This sparks huge criticism within South Korea.
``Forever good friend of Taiwan
Thank you for your friendship with Taiwan and your contributions to democracy, freedom, human rights, and peace around the world.
Tsai Ing-wen 2022/7/11”
(Colored paper written at the time of condolence) pic.twitter.com/VZFcnd9hfQ? Taiwan in Japan 台北駐日経済文化代表処 (@Taiwan_in_Japan) July 11, 2022
How many natural resources are there in the waters near Japan? Possibility of Japan including EEZ.
Trauma of Japan, a country without resources
Japan's area is not small
Is Japan 52.4% of mainland China?
Rare earths, oil, these are just the beginning
Cabinet Secretariat “The Future of the Sea”
Are undersea resources a treasure trove to save Japan?
Japan is in a state where it can be said that marine resource development is almost untouched. As a country lacking in natural resources, it relies on foreign sources for many natural resources, including oil. During World War II, Japan was surrounded by ABCD as a country with no natural resources, and was in a situation similar to a food raid. They lost the war due to America's overwhelming amount of supplies. One cannot help but wonder why marine resource development did not progress after the war. Since we lost the war because we didn't have the resources, there may be many people who argue that searching for resources means starting another war, but this is a completely different story.
Japan's land area is 380,000 km2, ranking it 62nd out of 196 countries in the world. Japanese people tend to think of Japan as a small country because they tend to focus on top-tier countries such as the United States, China, and Russia, but Germany, Finland, and Poland are smaller in area. However, Japan is a maritime nation. When looking at the total of territorial sea, contiguous zone, and EEZ, Japan ranks 6th in the world in terms of ocean area with 4.47 million km2. And if you add the extended continental shelf, it is 4.65 million km2. If Japan's land area is added to this, the area that Japan can independently mine is 5.03 million km2.
China is covered by countries such as Japan and Taiwan, and there are few oceans that China occupies. That's why they dream of expanding into the ocean, but China's land area is 9.6 million km2, and in fact, including the sea, Japan has about 52.4% of mainland China. is. Because China has a large land area, natural resources and oil are mined. However, Japan's seabed resources are still unknown.
In 2018, researchers from Waseda University and Tokyo University discovered that hundreds of years' worth of global demand for rare earths, which are essential for manufacturing precision equipment, is found on the ocean floor around Minamitorishima in the Ogasawara Islands. This was discovered through the team's investigation. A research team from Ibaraki University and Hokkaido University has announced that one of the world's largest oil fields may lie dormant off the coast of Ibaraki Prefecture's Goura coast in 2020.
Cabinet Secretariat Ocean Policy Headquarters Secretariat “The Future of the Sea” Excerpt
The Basic Law on Ocean Policy was enacted in April 2007 and came into effect in July of the same year. The Basic Law on Ocean Policy outlines the basic philosophy of harmonizing the development and use of the ocean with the conservation of the marine environment, as well as the responsibilities of the national and local governments. It also stipulates that a Basic Ocean Policy Plan be established approximately every five years, and that the Ocean Policy Headquarters, headed by the Prime Minister, be established in the Cabinet. The current Basic Plan on Ocean Policy, which was approved by the Cabinet in April 2013, clarifies ``the vision of Japan as a maritime nation'' and sets out initiatives that should be prioritized in light of changes in the social situation regarding the ocean. and indicates the direction of ocean-related measures. It also specifically describes the efforts that the government should comprehensively and systematically implement over a period of approximately five years in the 12 areas specified as "basic measures" in the Basic Act on Ocean Policy. The existence of energy and mineral resources such as oil, natural gas, methane hydrate, and submarine hydrothermal deposits has been confirmed in Japan's territorial waters, EEZ, and continental shelf, and the possibility of Japan becoming a resource superpower is hidden.
The 2007 Basic Law on Ocean Policy was formulated during the first Abe Cabinet, and Japan's exploration of seabed resources went into full swing. What if Japan becomes a resource-rich nation? I would never have thought of that. Because Japan is a small country... No. There is a high possibility that there will be a breakthrough in undersea exploration. There may come a time when Japanese people don't have to work so hard.