Mr. Ruri Miura said that NATO's eastern expansion was not correct - Useless fanning - Mr. Trump would have been in harmony.
2022-04-09
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Mr. Miura said that NATO's eastern expansion was incorrect.
Ruri Miura, an international political scientist, said, "It wasn't right at all" when asked "Is NATO's eastern expansion correct?" It is a view that goes against the tone of the media. In terms of content, did Russia need to provoke unnecessarily when it was not sufficiently weakened and could still lead to war as a nuclear power? Is saying. In addition, in response to the question "What if Mr. Trump was the president?", He instructed NATO not to expand eastward if he was Mr. Trump, and said that it is highly likely that he had taken Russia's request. The reason is that he is not so interested in Ukraine. At least Mr. Trump wouldn't have gone to at least the invasion of Kyiv. In other words, the United States does not have many interests in Ukraine, has weak trade relations, whould be regarded as a problem in the former Eastern Europe, and NATO does not unnecessarily stimulate it.
Japan has a calm analysis
Japan, like the United States, has little substantial relationship with Ukraine. It is necessary to look at this problem calmly apart from Western countries. Looking at the tone of the media and the internet, this war is only talked about from a sentimental point of view. As Miura pointed out in an interview, "Wars of this scale have occurred many times around the world, but why is the Ukrainian issue the only focus? It is a war between developed countries. . "
As I have posted before, Ukraine's accession to NATO was a very risky attempt to completely siege Moscow. This would require a high degree of diplomatic reconciliation, but no attempt was made. In the opposite position, if a hostile nation deploys a missile ６００ km to the capital of the United States, the United States should invade the military instantly. It is necessary to separate the argument that the war is happening now and that it must be ended as soon as possible and the argument that the cause of the war has started. However, it goes without saying that Russia's actions cannot be justified. Most importantly, the road to the end of the war will only be long if the cause of the beginning of the war is not removed.
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How will the Ukraine issue end?What's the possibility of a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine?Is there a way to solve it?
What is the root of Ukraine's problem?At first glance, Russia, angry at Ukraine's commitment to the West, launched a military invasion, but this is essentially a matter of military demarcation.NATO included Ukraine in its group of "future participants" in 2008.Membership is subject to unanimity of the Member States.Among them, Zelensky, who strongly urged NATO participation, was elected president in 2019, strengthening his influence on Europe and the United States.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference after an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in April 2021, "Ukraine has the right to apply for membership".Russia strongly criticized the USS (DDG-71) Ross, a U.S. naval missile destroyer, for entering the Black Sea on June 26 in the name of military exercises.
If Ukraine joins NATO, Europe's military demarcation line will be drastically changed.It is about 920 kilometers by land from Stapa, a city near the Romanian border, to Shotoska, a Ukrainian city near the Russian border.In other words, the military demarcation line will move at least 900 kilometers.NATO has repeatedly argued that this is Ukraine's intention, and NATO is on the side of accepting it.
For example, what would Japan say if Russia announced that it would build a large-scale military, naval and air base in the northern territories?Please, it can't be helped because it's Russia's right.I don't think so.The difference is that Japan does not take military action, but Russia tries to stop it by taking military action.This is Russia's mistake and to be criticized, but the war has actually begun.
The problem seems to be Ukraine's, but it is fundamentally NATO and Russia's.Joining NATO is own to Ukraine's will, NATO said it would not send troops to Ukraine, maintaining a third-party position.In a sense,NATO want to say this is not a NATO issue, but a Ukraine issue.Is that really the case?
What is the specific way to stop Russia's invasion?Currently, the world is imposing economic sanctions on Russia.How likely is this to stop Russia?It is said that the ruble has plummeted, but it has fallen by about 20 percent.Russia's main industrial structure is resource trade, making it more difficult to default than that of processing trade-oriented countries.The key is how long Russia's economy will last, but what is the time axis?
Anti-war demonstrations are taking place around the world.While they are effective in calling for a coalition of liberal countries and arousing international public opinion, the key is how much they can influence Russian public opinion.Russia is not a country with freedom of expression, and anti-war protesters in Russia are being arrested one after another.Only the Russian people can oust Putin.But Russia's next presidential election will be 2024.
Ukraine is negotiating a ceasefire with Russia. Will this stop the war?One of the conditions Russia is proposing to Ukraine is "demilitarization."I don't think Ukraine will drink this.And, as mentioned above, it is doubtful whether Ukraine is an opportunity for Russia and a negotiating partner.Russia has always said the problem is NATO's expansion to the east.
If this is a matter of military demarcation, who is involved?That is NATO and Russia.The most fundamental solution is to reach a truce agreement through consultations between the two parties and Ukraine.But NATO will not change its position as a third party.International public opinion is moving toward anti-war movements based on sympathy for Ukraine, but another direction for international public opinion is to bring NATO to the negotiating table, regardless of whether it is good or bad.
Ukraine is not a NATO member, so I understand that Western countries will not participate in the war, but will they never sit at the negotiating table?If not, there is a high possibility that the invasion of Ukraine will not stop.
How a country surrounded by great powers in history can remain an independent country.The Kingdom of Thailand was not colonized.
Speaking of how a country sandwiched between two major powers manages itself, there is the Kingdom of Thailand, which maintained its independence during the Asian colonial era. The white Asian colonies were ruled by the United Kingdom, which centered on India, France, which centered on Vietnam and Cambodia, and the Netherlands, which centered on Indonesia, so that they were not adjacent to each other.
Due to its geographical condition of being sandwiched between British and French colonial areas, Thailand takes advantage of the fact that Britain and France dislike being adjacent to each other, and does not lean towards either side, but acts as a buffer zone and transit point for both. Traded as land and profited from it.
On the Korean Peninsula, the Treaty of Tianjin was signed after the Kashin Coup, and the Japanese and Qing forces withdrew from the peninsula. This has the same meaning as the neutralization that Russia is seeking from Ukraine, which was confirmed in a treaty between Japan and Qing. However, due to the rebellion of the Donghak Party, Queen Min upset the balance and the Sino-Japanese War broke out. Empress Min thought that she could not control the civil war that had broken out in her country, so she requested reinforcements from the Qing Dynasty.
After the Sino-Japanese War, the Korean Peninsula became an independent country and established the Korean Empire, but it was devoted to Russia and tried to keep Japan and Qing in check. The Russo-Japanese War was the result of Russia's advance southward. In this case, too, it was a war between Japan and Russia.
The Korean Peninsula has no interest in the benefits of being a buffer zone, and has constantly implemented policies that disrupt the balance. As a result, the Korean government, believing that it would be unable to prevent the expansion of Russian interests, signed the Japan-Korea Annexation Treaty. Japan and Korea are not at war here. What is different from the Ukraine issue is that the Korean Peninsula was not subject to military invasion, and the issue was resolved between the major powers involved (Japan-Qing, Japan-Russia).
In Ukraine, a pro-Russian president and a pro-Western president have alternated every election. The eastern part has many residents who benefit from the economy with Russia, while the western part does business with Europe. With regard to domestic economic issues, if a pro-Western president is inaugurated, economic policies will be focused on Western areas, and if a pro-Russian president is inaugurated, economic policies will be focused on eastern areas. It will be done.
Although it may appear to be a security issue, economics has a lot to do with national elections. And while the current Zelensky administration is pro-Western, it has also taken an anti-Russian line. As a result, the security balance in Europe was seriously disrupted by the NATO membership issue.
In any case, times are different now. Russia has faced much criticism from the international community for its military invasion of these issues.
Ukrainian sniper sniper at Russian general... Is Mr. Zelenski still in Kiev?
The British Independent quoted a military source as saying on August 3 (local time) that Andrei Sukhovetsky (47), commander of the 7th Airborne Division and deputy commander of the 41st Allied Forces, was shot dead by Ukrainian snipers.There are rumors on the Internet that Sukhovetsky was speaking to the invading army at the time of his death, but the exact place and time of his death are unknown.It is highly likely to shock the Russian military and Moscow leaders in terms of being the highest-ranking person killed in the war.
It seems that like as in Golgo 13 a sniper killed an important person .Ukrainian snipers killed Sukhovetsky at a rally surrounded by Russian troops.British media reports that 400 assassins are already in Kiev via Belarus and ready to kill Zelensky.The assassination team said they knew where Zelensky was and were awaiting instructions from the authorities.Then why hasn't the instruction been given yet, or under what circumstances will the instruction given?
When former Defense Minister Morimoto appeared on TV, he said, "The Russian army would not capture Kiev at once."In other words, it is said that they surrounded and blocked Kiev and the food supply will be cut off weapons and ammunition, and make Kiev starve to death.Morimoto says Russia's purpose is to capture Zelensky and bring him to trial in Russia.In other words, the purpose is not to kill, but to capture alive.Russian army wait for Mr. Zelensky to surrender in exchange for saving the needy citizens of Kiev.
The appeal in Russia is a suspicion of Ukraine's genocide in the Donbas region.Russia claims that Zelensky ordered the killing of pro-Russian forces in Donbas to justify its invasion of Ukraine.
If Russia secures Mr. Zelensky, a trial may be held by all means, including forcing a confession.
Attacks on Ukrainian military installations began.Russia claims to be a peacekeeping mission.Japan should improve its ability to attack enemy bases.
Russia is attacking Ukrainian military facilities throughout Ukraine.Russia's Defense Ministry said it has attacked more than 80 Ukrainian military facilities, including 11 airports.Military facilities in the suburbs of Kiev were attacked by cruise missiles, as well as Kramatorsk, Ukraine's eastern stronghold, and military facilities in the south.
Putin justified the attack, saying, "There is no alternative," adding, "We are safe because we have not attacked the private sector."Russia's defense of the two states, Lugansk and Donetsk, is believed to have been based on the premise that Ukrainian troops will be dispatched to prevent the attack.Currently, pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are controlling a part of the two states and trying to control all of the two states and Russia support them in the rear.
Japan, led by Europe and the U.S., has also announced economic sanctions, but economic sanctions cannot physically stop Russia's march.Ukrainian President Zelensky said he would "consider" breaking off diplomatic relations with Russia, but this would be meaningless.At the same time, he said he would "defend Ukraine" and did not mention war with Russia.Perhaps just a matter of time, the two eastern states will belong to Russia.Ukraine's military facilities have been destroyed and Russia's military facilities have remained intact.
The Japanese government has also expressed its opinion that the Japanese Defense Minister is within the scope of self-defense, but there are still many objections.In other words, we can see in real time how unrealistic and vulnerable only doing defense is.
military aggression is a physical problem, and economic sanctions are just economic sanctions.The ongoing problem is the issue of military aggression.
1,700 anti - war demonstrators arrested in 50 Russian cities.Will Ukraine's invasion affect Russia's 2024 presidential election?
Anti-war demonstrations are taking place in Russia over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.It was held in 50 cities and 1,700 people were detained.The reason for the arrest is that they put up placards.They are not mobbed.According to journalist Natalya Vasiliev, the authorities arrested the alleged protesters indiscriminately, and Vasiliev himself was temporarily detained even though he said he was a journalist.
Originally, there were speculations that Putin would invade Ukraine in order to secure domestic support in anticipation of the next presidential election in 2024, but there was a reaction.However, it is unclear whether the move is a Russian sentiment or a civic movement.In fact, some people have ordered an invasion of Ukraine.Russia has desired a strong leader in history.He is a leader who can unite the people, even with strong leadership and dictatorship.This is why Putin was elected president four times, despite growing anti-Putin public opinion.It is noteworthy how the current anti-war protests will spread.
Regarding the 2024 Russian presidential election, Putin hinted at running in December 2021, saying, "According to the Constitution, I have the right to run."In June 2021, he said, "It is my responsibility to recommend a successor.Regarding whether he will run in the 2024 presidential election, some say he will avoid destabilizing the country, while others say he will not run in the fifth term.
In any case, Russia is a democratic country, but it doesn't look like that way.In other words, he was arrested and arrested for holding placards during anti-war demonstrations.It can be said that the conventional wisdom of the socialist era has not disappeared at all.On the other hand, anti-war demonstrations in 50 cities are tantamount to people taking democratic action.Whether Russians want democracy or a strong leader in the next presidential election is drawing attention.
If anti-war demonstrations expand in Russia, Putin's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election will be reduced.Moving Russian citizens by international public opinion may be one of the strategies.
