A clever Russian strategy How many scenarios does Putin have for Ukraine?
2022-02-23
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Putin's several strategies.
Putin's purpose is, as he said, to the east, NATO's non-expansion.If you think about the purpose of the Russian troops stationed near the Ukrainian border, how many scenarios are there?How many scenarios did the Biden administration attempt to respond to?
The first possibility is that if Ukraine joins NATO, it will capture Kiev, Ukraine's capital.In response, NATO countries in Europe said they would not send troops to Ukraine, and Biden's administration said they would not send troops to Ukraine.Biden's tone is "all-out war," so he would not send troops.That is, Biden tried to put off the issue by saying Ukraine would not join NATO in the near future.
A vague solution and the crisis of war
From Russia's point of view, this is probably an ambiguous solution.However, if NATO forces do not enter Ukraine in the near future, Russia's immediate reason for its attack on Ukraine will be weakened, while the United States will continue to shout that Russia will attack and foreign companies withdrawed from Ukraine.Economic sanctions such as withdrawal at the civilian level have already begun.Russia claims to have withdrawn some of its troops, but the United States claims Russia is increasing its forces.Is this Biden's strategy?
Second scenario performed
Putin gets only economic blow.Therefore, the second scenario was to recognize the independence of the People's Republic of Lugansk and the People's Republic of Donetsk. We decided to bring back results.Russia is strongly opposed to Ukraine's NATO membership and is negotiating with Europe and U.S, which seemed different from case of Crimea aimed at some regions.Western countries are also responding to NATO versus Russia's all-out war.The theme is to avoid all-out war.
The negotiation card will be sent to Russia
Putin approved the independence of pro-Russian forces after the next U.S.-Russia summit was decided and before the talks.The timing was exquisite.As a result, Putin obtained two cards before the talks.Russian troops will station in Lugansk and Donetsk to pressure the West and Ukraine.Moreover, Russia would try to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO.Since the eastern half of Ukraine is inhabited by many Russians, this method can be used in the future.Did Biden get the card?I think it's the same as the beginning.
POINT President Putin seems to have done better this time.He succeeded in achieving results, and NATO even declared that it would not enter Ukraine.
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The U.S. - Russia negotiations are expected to take place in the U.S. - Russia intelligence war. an outpost for the summit.
US President Biden announced on the 19th that Russia would invade Ukraine within the next few days, and President Putin said that he had decided to go to war. Russia has consistently stated that it has no intention of advancing into Ukraine. In an unprecedented move, President Putin made public a conversation he had with Foreign Minister Lavrov about the possibility of dialogue with Western countries. When Russia says it has withdrawn some of its troops, the US says it is increasing its troops. The purpose of this information warfare is currently a hot topic.
The only thing that is clear is that Ukraine has been militarily cut off from the West. President Biden immediately denied participation in the war, citing World War III. The longer this problem drags on, the more the Ukrainian economy will suffer. Currently, many foreign companies are withdrawing and foreigners are evacuating abroad. President Zelenskiy has ordered Western countries to refrain from making statements that suggest Russia is about to invade. In the first place, there was a strong view that Russia's original purpose was to shake up Zelensky's government. If the pro-American government continues, Russian troops will always be stationed on Ukraine's border, and if NATO membership becomes a reality, they will also deploy nuclear weapons to authoritarian Belarus.
At the U.S.-Russia summit meeting held on the 13th, Mr. Biden asked Mr. Putin first what Russia's demands were. There is criticism that it is impractical for diplomacy to listen to the other party's demands first. Therefore, Mr. Putin immediately demanded that NATO not expand to the east.
If this trend had continued, the negotiations would have resulted in the withdrawal of Russian troops in exchange for canceling Ukraine's membership in NATO. Mr. Biden agreed to hold a second meeting with Mr. Putin. Sanctions against the Ukrainian and Russian economies have already begun due to information warfare. By strengthening this, it appears as if Mr. Biden is trying to turn his position from being at a disadvantage to an advantage.
It will not be easy for the US to gain a negotiating advantage now that it has abandoned the military option. Economic sanctions have already begun.
Continued invasion of Ukraine - The Iraq War lasted for 8 years and 9 months with the participation of more than 40 countries.
There is a view that Russia is not as strong as expected as it was revealed in this invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has a population of about 44 million and the regular army has a population of about 210,000. Russia has a population of 140 million and the Russian army has a population of 900,000. Ukraine's GDP is 55th in the world, lower than Iraq. And in terms of location, it can be said that the Russian army is most likely to invade because it is a neighboring country. Belarus and Russia can also invade the capital Kyiv. Even so, even one month after the start of the war, it has not been suppressed. It is attracting attention in the sense that it is possible to fight so far just by providing weapons from developed countries.
The Iraq War lasted eight years and nine months. An airstrike on Baghdad by the US military was carried out on March 20, 2003, and Saddam Hussein was captured on December 13, 2003. More than 40 countries, including the United States and other developed countries, allies, and friendly countries, have made military intervention in Iraq. Still, it took eight years and nine months to conquer the whole of Iraq. What is different from Ukraine is that Iraq and its neighbors Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have not participated in the operation, and the countries that have conducted military intervention are dispatched to distant places.
After the capture of Hussein, destabilization in Iraq and guerrilla warfare continued. Even if we count the capture of Hussein, it will be about 9 months. Without nuclear weapons, it would take so much time to conquer a country even with modern weapons. And the common keyword is "national defense". In this sense, the Ukrainian war is likely to be prolonged if the goal is to control the whole country. On the other hand, Russia has said from the beginning that it is not thinking of controlling the whole of Ukraine. At what stage will the ceasefire agreement be reached? It presupposes that Russia's original goals will be achieved to some extent. There are many difficulties in the current negotiations as to how much Ukraine can accept Russia's demands.
How a country surrounded by great powers in history can remain an independent country.The Kingdom of Thailand was not colonized.
Speaking of how a country sandwiched between two major powers manages itself, there is the Kingdom of Thailand, which maintained its independence during the Asian colonial era. The white Asian colonies were ruled by the United Kingdom, which centered on India, France, which centered on Vietnam and Cambodia, and the Netherlands, which centered on Indonesia, so that they were not adjacent to each other.
Due to its geographical condition of being sandwiched between British and French colonial areas, Thailand takes advantage of the fact that Britain and France dislike being adjacent to each other, and does not lean towards either side, but acts as a buffer zone and transit point for both. Traded as land and profited from it.
On the Korean Peninsula, the Treaty of Tianjin was signed after the Kashin Coup, and the Japanese and Qing forces withdrew from the peninsula. This has the same meaning as the neutralization that Russia is seeking from Ukraine, which was confirmed in a treaty between Japan and Qing. However, due to the rebellion of the Donghak Party, Queen Min upset the balance and the Sino-Japanese War broke out. Empress Min thought that she could not control the civil war that had broken out in her country, so she requested reinforcements from the Qing Dynasty.
After the Sino-Japanese War, the Korean Peninsula became an independent country and established the Korean Empire, but it was devoted to Russia and tried to keep Japan and Qing in check. The Russo-Japanese War was the result of Russia's advance southward. In this case, too, it was a war between Japan and Russia.
The Korean Peninsula has no interest in the benefits of being a buffer zone, and has constantly implemented policies that disrupt the balance. As a result, the Korean government, believing that it would be unable to prevent the expansion of Russian interests, signed the Japan-Korea Annexation Treaty. Japan and Korea are not at war here. What is different from the Ukraine issue is that the Korean Peninsula was not subject to military invasion, and the issue was resolved between the major powers involved (Japan-Qing, Japan-Russia).
In Ukraine, a pro-Russian president and a pro-Western president have alternated every election. The eastern part has many residents who benefit from the economy with Russia, while the western part does business with Europe. With regard to domestic economic issues, if a pro-Western president is inaugurated, economic policies will be focused on Western areas, and if a pro-Russian president is inaugurated, economic policies will be focused on eastern areas. It will be done.
Although it may appear to be a security issue, economics has a lot to do with national elections. And while the current Zelensky administration is pro-Western, it has also taken an anti-Russian line. As a result, the security balance in Europe was seriously disrupted by the NATO membership issue.
In any case, times are different now. Russia has faced much criticism from the international community for its military invasion of these issues.
Ukraine crisis as seen from Cuban crisis. Cuba protected but Ukraine isolated.
After Castro's successful Cuban Revolution in 1959, Cuba decided to pursue a socialist path and joined the socialist camp, and American capital was expelled.In 1961, President Eisenhauer broke off diplomatic relations with Cuba.Kennedy, the next president, failed in his attempt to overthrow Castro's revolutionary government by organizing Cubans who had defected to the United States to invade Cuba.In response, Castro stepped up his anti-U.S. stance and approached the Soviet Union, while Khrushchev deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba to gain an advantage over the U.S. by deploying nuclear weapons.
In October 1962, a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance plane discovered that a Soviet missile base was under construction.The range covered the entire United States and made it easier to attack the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons.In a televised address on TV, President Kennedy declared that he would block the waters and airspace around Cuba to prevent the Soviet Union from bringing in weapons and ammunition and supplies used to make nuclear weapons.The Soviet Union was already in the process of sending ships loaded with goods and weapons to Cuba.Breaking through the U.S. blockade of the sea would have resulted in direct clashes, and the nuclear war crisis was imminent.The two leaders negotiated behind the scenes, and Khrushchev told Kennedy that the U.S. would remove its missile base in exchange for not invading Cuba. The agreement was reached on Oct. 27 to avoid a nuclear war crisis.
What is the difference between the Ukraine crisis and the Cuban crisis?The U.S. and Russia are in the opposite position.Castro approached the Soviet Union with the aim of building a socialist country and Zelensky approached NATO as a democratic country.This is also the opposite.And the same is true of the crisis, but why?The biggest difference was that Kennedy and Khrushchev had a conversation to avoid war and were avoided at the last minute.The United States has taken the position that it is not the party concerned this time.
The Cuban crisis was averted by dialogue between the United States and Russia.The U.S. has no intention of negotiating the Ukraine issue, only Ukraine was left behind
1,700 anti - war demonstrators arrested in 50 Russian cities.Will Ukraine's invasion affect Russia's 2024 presidential election?
Anti-war demonstrations are taking place in Russia over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.It was held in 50 cities and 1,700 people were detained.The reason for the arrest is that they put up placards.They are not mobbed.According to journalist Natalya Vasiliev, the authorities arrested the alleged protesters indiscriminately, and Vasiliev himself was temporarily detained even though he said he was a journalist.
Originally, there were speculations that Putin would invade Ukraine in order to secure domestic support in anticipation of the next presidential election in 2024, but there was a reaction.However, it is unclear whether the move is a Russian sentiment or a civic movement.In fact, some people have ordered an invasion of Ukraine.Russia has desired a strong leader in history.He is a leader who can unite the people, even with strong leadership and dictatorship.This is why Putin was elected president four times, despite growing anti-Putin public opinion.It is noteworthy how the current anti-war protests will spread.
Regarding the 2024 Russian presidential election, Putin hinted at running in December 2021, saying, "According to the Constitution, I have the right to run."In June 2021, he said, "It is my responsibility to recommend a successor.Regarding whether he will run in the 2024 presidential election, some say he will avoid destabilizing the country, while others say he will not run in the fifth term.
In any case, Russia is a democratic country, but it doesn't look like that way.In other words, he was arrested and arrested for holding placards during anti-war demonstrations.It can be said that the conventional wisdom of the socialist era has not disappeared at all.On the other hand, anti-war demonstrations in 50 cities are tantamount to people taking democratic action.Whether Russians want democracy or a strong leader in the next presidential election is drawing attention.
If anti-war demonstrations expand in Russia, Putin's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election will be reduced.Moving Russian citizens by international public opinion may be one of the strategies.
