Former Defense Minister Onodera implicitly criticized the Ukraine issue.Japan and Taiwan will be the same as Ukraine.
2022-02-24
Category:Ukraine
Photo by Secretary of Defense (licensed under CC0 1.0 )
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Former Defense Minister Onodera appeared on Sunday's report on the Ukraine incident and expressed his opinion.
Main remarks by Onodera
The Trump era did not exclude military resources.Biden ruled it out.Putin believes that the United States is just a mouthful.
The same thing happened in Afghanistan.It also happened in Ukraine.It could also happen in Taiwan.
Zelensky not only wants NATO to protect him, but also to protect his country.This will win the support of other countries.This is true of Japan, too.
I don't think we can do much about economic sanctions because we couldn't do anything during the Crimean Peninsula.
Taiwan has no military alliance with the United States.Looking at the present situation in the United States, Taiwan will eventually be abandoned.There is a trend in Taiwan to get along well with China.
The Ukraine issue is similar to the Taiwan issue, and Taiwan has not even declared independence.Neither the U.S. nor Japan has even approved it.In this relationship, we cannot help but be skeptical about what kind of legal framework the United States will use to defend Taiwan.In the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act, except for the provision of weapons to defend Taiwan, only the ambiguous phrase "appropriate action" is written.
Taiwan belongs to China internationally.The United Nations also defines the People's Republic of China as China's representative government[ref ].Taiwan's independence requires the international community to declare Taiwan a state of independence, and the countries concerned recognize it.We can form an alliance for the first time after national recognition.If China attacks before that, which country will help Taiwan?
POINT Trump would not have ruled out military options in Ukraine and would have approved Taiwan's independence.President Putin easily recognized the independence of pro-Russian forces.
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Is Russia sending 1,000 mercenaries to Ukraine?Are the troops attacking Kiev really regular?
There are many reports that Ukrainian troops are fighting well to prevent Russian aggression, but Russian soldiers captured by Ukrainian soldiers are questionable."I came all the way here without knowing where I was going," "I participated in the battle without any training."Surprisingly, soldiers who make video calls with their mother in Russia and cry, "I want to go back to Russia soon."It is clear that they are conscripts and trainees, but what percentage of them participate?
The question from the beginning is whether the Russian camp attacking Kiev is really a regular army.It seems this Russian soldiers are not professional combat groups.So where is the regular army?Will it be a second wave?
CNN reported that Russia is expected to send up to 1,000 mercenaries to Ukraine in the next few days or weeks.A high-ranking Western intelligence official said, "The Russian government warned that it could "subdue multiple cities by bombing," adding, "As the war intensifies, many civilians will be killed."Where will Russian professional soldiers engage in operations and how will 1,000 mercenaries be deployed in the future?
The procession to Kiev seems to be aimed at concentrating Ukrainian soldiers on the defense of the capital.Russia, on the other hand, is continuously suppressing Zapoliza and Helson in the region from Donbas to Crimea.Are they going to take the time to attacking Kiev and buy time, while you subdue other key points?
Russia seems to be invading Ukraine for several purposes.What will be done before the fall of the capital and what will the next troops to be deployed in the future?
The CIA asked Zelensky to flee the country.Zelensky, who stayed in Ukraine, became a hero.
The U.S. told through the CIA to Zelensky You are Russia's "first goal".The Washington Post (WP) reported that the CIA told that we are ready to evacuate you and your family abroad.CIA Director William Burns is known to have mentioned the above issues to President Zelensky during his visit to Ukraine.In response, Zelensky said he would remain in Ukraine, and in Korea, he was called a hero with courage.Now, let's look at the CIA's request again.This encourages the president of a country to seek asylum abroad.In which world will the president of a war-torn or dangerous country defect abroad?The last time such incidents occurred in Afghanistan, it was clearly considered a renunciation of power.Afghan President Gani fled the Taliban's invasion and fled the country, and the Taliban quickly overpowered Afghanistan.
The president has strong authority.The most important thing is martial law and the authority of the commander-in-chief of the army.If martial law is issued, it will be possible to impose extra-legal domestic regulations.As commander-in-chief of the military, there are many operations that cannot be carried out without the president's permission.In other words, the United States urged Zelensky to relinquish these powers and flee abroad.Does this mean that the president should resign and end the war?
America has been in a third-party position on the Ukurina issue since the beginning.NATO countries responded the same way early on, announcing that they would not send U.S. troops to Ukraine.
Negotiations on Ukraine broke down.Russia's goal is to neutralize and demilitarize Ukraine.NATO provides logistical support.
Negotiations on a ceasefire between Ukrainian and Russian delegations ended for five hours in Gomeri, southeastern Belarus, near the border with Ukraine.Ukraine has already notified of unconditional negotiations, and what this means is that it does not object to the recognition of independence of Lugansk and Donetsk.Russia seems to have offered conditions.
Russia's conditions are "neutralization" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine.This may seem like a peaceful settlement, but it is a completely different request."Neutralization" means Ukraine's non-NATO membership, and Ukraine's current intentions may be put aside but it would be accepted.However, "unarmed" means that there is no military, and that having an army is a legitimate right under international law included in a country's right to live, which means that it will no longer be a sovereign state.In other words, Russia has offered unacceptable conditions.As a result, the negotiations broke down and the negotiations were decided to negotiate next time.
Russia's original demand is NATO's non-expansion to the east.This has not changed since the beginning.So why can't Ukraine compromise on the terms of "neutralization" that it can accept?This also seems to mean that there will be no will of Russia to negotiat with Ukraine.Russia has taken military action against the possibility of NATO's eastern expansion to Ukraine and the deployment of NATO forces near the Russian border.In other words, it is fundamentally a matter of NATO and Russia.
NATO has consistently said that it is up to the will of the applicant countries to join NATO.In other words, NATO's passive stance is that it is the will of the applicant countries rather than the will of NATO.However, the war is continuing.Perhaps what Russia wants to negotiate is NATO troops.NATO wants further commitment to the non-expansion of the East.In this sense, Ukraine may not be Russia's negotiating partner.NATO is trying to stop the Russian military by imposing economic sanctions and arousing international public opinion.
If NATO agrees on non-expansion to the East ,and Ukraine as a neutral country, Ukraine's sovereignty and peace will be maintained, and both Russia and NATO will have important buffer states.If NATO or Russia sends troops to Ukraine, it will be a war between NATO and Russia.Then the military balance will be maintained.Indeed, for NATO, Ukraine's membership has little advantage.Therefore, Western countries immediately announced that they would not send troops to Ukraine to avoid war.
In Japanese history, there is a Tianjin Treaty signed with Qing in 1885.This means that the two sides will withdraw from the Korean Peninsula in order to ease tensions between Japan and China after the Kim Ok-kyun Gapsin Incident.In other words, the Korean Peninsula is considered a neutral military zone of military neutrality.As a result, Queen Min, who failed to suppress the Donghak Party's rebellion on the Korean Peninsula, asked Qing for reinforcements, which triggered the Japan-Qing War.Without such a blunder, Ukraine could become an independent country, and on the contrary, a stable and protected country between Russia and NATO.
Russia's request is simple and nothing has changed.NATO Western countries have become third parties to economic sanctions without participating in the war.Will NATO negotiate with Russia?
Has Ukraine given up NATO membership? Zelensky says NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.
Zelensky said he no longer wants Ukraine to join NATO.This is one of the reasons why Russia invaded its pro-Western neighbors.NATO also said it was not ready to accept Ukraine.He said on February 24 he was ready to "compromise" on the status of two pro-Russian territories that President Vladimir Putin acknowledged as independent just before the invasion.Zelensky told NATO members through an interpreter that he did not want to be president of a "kneeling country."
Western countries have consistently said they will not send troops to Ukraine.In response, Zelensky repeatedly appealed for NATO cooperation, but he calmly considered the current situation and thought it would be difficult to join NATO.At the same time, Zelensky is demanding Ukraine's security from both NATO and Russia, and how to achieve this will be a challenge.Have there been any examples of NATO-Russia agreements in the past?In other words, considering what would happen if one side broke its promise, we would have to be very cautious about the NATO-Russia deal.
In any case, the only solution is to protect Ukraine's security.How to achieve this is the key to solving this problem.In other words, Zelensky has begun to agree.
What kind of response will NATO and Russia make to President Zelensky's message?
What is the cause of Ukraine's problems?What triggered the war?Why did war break out in the past?
The Ukraine issue is a confrontation between liberalism, authoritarianism, and hegemonism, but it is of paramount importance.In terms of a wide-area Europe, including Russia, this is due to the military imbalance between NATO and Russia.The war broke out after diplomatic negotiations broke down.Diplomatic negotiations vary, but what is most likely to lead to war is a change in military balance.The reason why Japan is calling for a revision of Article 9 of the Constitution is that East Asia's military balance between China's military expansion and North Korea's nuclear and missile development has been greatly undermined.
The Bush administration, which has failed to catch up with the U.S. public opinion since the September 11 terrorist attacks on Iraq, had launched a war on the grounds of intervention with Al Qaeda and possession of nuclear weapons.The U.S. and Britain entered the war without conclusive evidence of nuclear weapons during the U.N. inspection.Liberal countries were directly or indirectly involved in the war, with 116,000 civilian casualties in Iraq.As a result of many casualties, Iraq had no nuclear weapons.Eventually, the U.S. military arrested Saddam Hussein, established a puppet regime in Iraq, and Saddam Hussein was executed by Iraqi justice.Russia's current operations in Ukraine are small in scale, but one of the objectives seems to be Zelensky's head.So what is the difference between the Iraq War and Ukraine?
The reason why the Russo-Japanese War began was that Russia's military balance toward the south of the Korean Peninsula had changed.The Iraq War was a war in which the U.S. overreacted to the change in the military balance of possessing nuclear weapons in the Middle East, resulting in no nuclear weapons.Underlying the Nazi invasion is a change in military balance.All wars in the past have this problem at heart.On the contrary, if the regional military balance is stable, war is unlikely.
Although various anti-war movements by liberal countries will work to sway public opinion around the world and Russia, it will not be a real solution unless NATO and Russia establish a space balance of peace.
Russian military aggression is never allowed.However, if you misjudge what the original solution is, the problem will not be solved forever.
