Has Ukraine given up NATO membership? Zelensky says NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.
2022-03-10
Category:Ukraine
Photo by U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Jerry Morrison (licensed under CC0 1.0 )
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No longer seeking NATO membership
Zelensky said he no longer wants Ukraine to join NATO.This is one of the reasons why Russia invaded its pro-Western neighbors.NATO also said it was not ready to accept Ukraine.He said on February ２４ he was ready to "compromise" on the status of two pro-Russian territories that President Vladimir Putin acknowledged as independent just before the invasion.Zelensky told NATO members through an interpreter that he did not want to be president of a "kneeling country."<--AFP Article Excerpt //>
Can NATO and Russia do business?
Western countries have consistently said they will not send troops to Ukraine.In response, Zelensky repeatedly appealed for NATO cooperation, but he calmly considered the current situation and thought it would be difficult to join NATO.At the same time, Zelensky is demanding Ukraine's security from both NATO and Russia, and how to achieve this will be a challenge.Have there been any examples of NATO-Russia agreements in the past?In other words, considering what would happen if one side broke its promise, we would have to be very cautious about the NATO-Russia deal.
Negotiations that changed the situation
In any case, the only solution is to protect Ukraine's security.How to achieve this is the key to solving this problem.In other words, Zelensky has begun to agree.
POINT What kind of response will NATO and Russia make to President Zelensky's message?
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Continued invasion of Ukraine - The Iraq War lasted for 8 years and 9 months with the participation of more than 40 countries.
There is a view that Russia is not as strong as expected as it was revealed in this invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has a population of about 44 million and the regular army has a population of about 210,000. Russia has a population of 140 million and the Russian army has a population of 900,000. Ukraine's GDP is 55th in the world, lower than Iraq. And in terms of location, it can be said that the Russian army is most likely to invade because it is a neighboring country. Belarus and Russia can also invade the capital Kyiv. Even so, even one month after the start of the war, it has not been suppressed. It is attracting attention in the sense that it is possible to fight so far just by providing weapons from developed countries.
The Iraq War lasted eight years and nine months. An airstrike on Baghdad by the US military was carried out on March 20, 2003, and Saddam Hussein was captured on December 13, 2003. More than 40 countries, including the United States and other developed countries, allies, and friendly countries, have made military intervention in Iraq. Still, it took eight years and nine months to conquer the whole of Iraq. What is different from Ukraine is that Iraq and its neighbors Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have not participated in the operation, and the countries that have conducted military intervention are dispatched to distant places.
After the capture of Hussein, destabilization in Iraq and guerrilla warfare continued. Even if we count the capture of Hussein, it will be about 9 months. Without nuclear weapons, it would take so much time to conquer a country even with modern weapons. And the common keyword is "national defense". In this sense, the Ukrainian war is likely to be prolonged if the goal is to control the whole country. On the other hand, Russia has said from the beginning that it is not thinking of controlling the whole of Ukraine. At what stage will the ceasefire agreement be reached? It presupposes that Russia's original goals will be achieved to some extent. There are many difficulties in the current negotiations as to how much Ukraine can accept Russia's demands.
Japan, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and the EU announced sanctions against Russia.The content is limited, not enough to corner Russia.
Sanctions include (1) suspension of visa issuance and freezing of property for two "Republic" , (2) prohibition of import and export of two "Republics", and (3) prohibition of the issuance and distribution of new sovereign bonds in Japan.
Before that Japan's Foreign Minister Hayashi announced Japan will do sanctions in line with the G7, but the sanctions are not very strong.
German Chancellor Helmut Scholtz said on Wednesday he would suspend the approval process for a new gas pipeline (Nordstream 2) in Germany and Russia.Nordstream 2 is a pipeline that imports natural gas from Russia in the future without going through Ukraine, but will be suspended.However, it is doubtful how effective the sanctions will be because the current pipeline is exported to European countries via Ukraine.
The sanctions announced by the U.S. government are very limited.Pro-Russian-controlled areas are prohibited from doing economic transactions with the U.S. It was not sanctions against Russia.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has imposed sanctions on five banks and three Russian billionaires, saying they will be banned from traveling to Britain.
The EU said it agreed to target 27 individuals and organizations that "play a role in weakening or threatening Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence."
In any case, it is not a comprehensive plan to corner Russia's economy, but a partial, limited, and future solution.
Russia was subject to economic sanctions over the Crimean Peninsula last time, and based on its experience and current economic relations between the U.S. and Europe, it predicted the size of the sanctions and decided to send troops to Donetsk and Lugansk.Territorial disputes will benefit the region permanently after its conquest.Crimea ,Donetsk and Lugansk have 3,796,000 people, and after all Russia will occupy their economy.
Economic sanctions against territorial aggression cannot be used as a countermeasure from the beginning.Unless Russia returns it, losses from economic sanctions will be recovered from the region.
Poland's supply of fighter jets is in trouble.Ukraine says it will accept neutrality.
Poland's plan to supply Soviet-made fighter jets to Ukraine seems to be in trouble.The Polish government announced on August 8 that it would hand over fighter jets to the U.S. and provide them to Ukraine via the U.S., but the U.S. expressed its intention not to accept Poland's proposal for fear of Russian opposition.
The Ukrainian Air Force announced on August 1 that it would receive 28 MiG-29s from Poland, but Poland later denied the infomation handing them over.Poland's attempt to provide Mig-29 via the U.S. due to pressure from Russia but The U.S. rejected .Romania has been threatened by Russia, saying it recognizes Ukraine's use of the airport .It is clear that Europe is still supplying weapons to Ukraine, and fighter jets are one of its weapons, but is it different to say that fighter jets or air force aid?
Ukraine asked NATO to set up a no-fly zone, but NATO refused.The establishment of a no-fly zone means NATO's deployment of fighter jets to shoot down Russian aircraft, which means NATO's participation in the war.Ukraine's demand to do something about intensifying air strikes was not met, and furthermore, it is difficult to provide fighter jets from Poland.
Zelensky's ruling party, "People's Servant," announced on August 8 if neighboring countries, including NATO and Russia, will guarantee Ukraine's security and neutrality, Ukraine will accept the order of Russian neutrality .However, it is unclear how the negotiations will proceed as Russia demands Total abolition of Ukraine's army and Ukraine refuses to recognize the independence of Donetsk and the People's Republic of Lugansk.
In conclusion, after the Crimean crisis, Ukraine's intention to join NATO is a security issue, but if NATO and Russia guarantee Ukraine's neutrality and security, there will be no need to stick to NATO membership.And this may have been something to be negotiated before the war.The only solution to the issue is to treat Ukraine as a buffer zone and maintain peacefully.But the war has already begun, and the problem is much more complicated than before.Ukraine's ruling party's intentions are premised on negotiations between NATO and Russia.
If Ukraine is guaranteed peace as a neutral region, Russia will not be adjacent to NATO and will meet Russia's original requirements.
Putin issued a special alert to the nuclear deterrent force.Putin's apparent mistake in his later years.nuclear intimidation.
Putin ordered strategic nuclear deterrent forces to be "special alert.He said "This is because Western countries have taken "unfriendly action" against Russia.
This is a far-fetched idea, and NATO countries are strongly criticizing it.Putin's previous invasion of Ukraine has been carefully calculated, and Putin has achieved his many goals successfully.In addition, Putin ordered its nuclear deterrent forces against G7 and other countries which would exclude Russia from the SWIFT and other economy .It is a special warning, it simply means that nuclear weapons should be prepared to be used at any time.
Russia has not suffered any military damage in their country.The Ukrainian army is responsible for the internal defense of Ukraine, and the death of Russian soldiers in Ukraine have been caused by Ukrainian troops in Ukraine.The order for the nuclear deterrent forces is to prepare nuclear weapons in response to economic sanctions.
This is clearly Putin's mistake.Putin's personal isolation from the international community will be more serious than Russia's isolation.Putin is rumored to be aiming for a fifth term in Russia's 2024 presidential election, but even if he becomes president, no heads of state may negotiate with Putin.
This time, it is seen as a nuclear threat to the international community, and it can be such a big mistake that doubts about Putin's personality arise.
Zelensky said he would die because of NATO.Next, all three Baltic countries. Zelensky urged Western countries to strengthen their military support for Ukraine, saying, "If Russia overcomes Ukraine, it could invade Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia next time."In response to NATO's denial of the possibility of establishing a no-fly zone in Ukraine on July 7, he said, "Many people will be killed because of NATO."The Baltic states are NATO members.Let's look at Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
North Atlantic Treaty
Article 5
Contracting States agree to regard armed attacks against one or more Contracting States in Europe or North America as attacks against all Contracting States.Accordingly, in the event of such armed attack, the Contracting States shall exercise their individual or collective right to self-defense (including the use of forces) as they deem necessary to restore and maintain security in the North Atlantic region.
The aforementioned armed attacks and all measures taken as a result shall be reported immediately to the Security Council.Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council takes necessary measures to restore and maintain international peace and security.
It can be seen from this that attacks on NATO members are considered attacks on NATO as a whole, and that the right to collective self-defense will be exercised.Russia's invasion of Ukraine was caused by Russia's reluctance to allow NATO troops to move near the Russian border, so Russia wants to create an environment that will not lead to war with NATO.Most importantly, Russia invaded Ukraine before NATO joined because it understood that Article 5 would be invoked.NATO's consistent stance of not entering Ukraine and not establishing a no-fly zone are aimed at avoiding an all-out war between Russia and NATO by exercising the right to collective self-defense.
Russia's next target is Moldova and Georgia, non-NATO members around the Black Sea, not the Baltic countries.
Russia is suppressing southeastern states in order to get the Black Sea.Non-NATO members around the Black Sea may be at risk rather than attacking NATO members.
