Can economic sanctions stop Russia's war?The cause of the war has not yet been discussed.
2022-03-12
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Will economic sanctions remain in effect after the war?
President Vladimir Putin has no intention of stopping the war amid economic sanctions imposed on Russia.In a telephone conversation with French President Jacques Macron, he said, "We will not stop attacking Ukraine until Russia has achieved its goals."Many media outlets, including Japan, predict that Russia will eventually end the war due to economic sanctions, but this is not the case.What is needed mainly to wage war is weapons to fight, fuel to power them, and food for soldiers.If these are missing, it will be difficult to continue the war.The idea that it is economically disadvantageous and profitable is a prewar discussion.
How was Japan in the past
I want you to remember Japan's past history.Japan was surrounded by ABCDs.This is a siege of A=America (USA), B=Britain (UK), C=China (China), and D=Dutch (Netherlands).As a result, Japan was blocked from ironwork, oil, and food, which were essential for the continuation of the war.What was the result?The Great East Asian War and the Pacific War began.The economic blockade is threatening the survival of the country, and Japan had been trying to build an Asian economic bloc by further promoting the idea of a "Great East Asian Co-prosperity Zone."The idea of a great East Asian co-prosperity zone was to expel Western colonial rule in Asia, and economic sanctions would compensate for the loss caused by developing the development of the great East Asian co-prosperity zone.
Russia capable of self-sufficiency in order to continue the war
When it comes to weapons, Russia is one of the world's leading military powers, and there are a lot of weapons already manufactured.In terms of fuel, Russia ranked seventh in the world in oil reserves and overtaken Saudi Arabia in ２０１０ as the world's largest oil producer.In terms of food, Russia's grain self-sufficiency rate is １２４%.In other words, what is needed to continue the war is mainly available in Russia.
Mining is also active, producing ３２% iron, ３１% nickel, ２７% tin, ２１% cobalt, and １４% uranium of global production, as well as copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, titanium, gold, platinum, and diamond.Moreover, exports of fuel and energy products, mainly oil and natural gas, account for two-thirds of Russia's total exports, and European countries cannot engage in economic activities without purchasing natural gas from Russia.Therefore, this part is not subject to economic sanctions.So, will this stop the war?
Even in the past, the only way to stop the war was to defeat the enemy or to eliminate the cause of the war.Economic sanctions did not stop Japan's military it had little resources at that time.
POINT Looking at the current situation in Russia, it seems that they have no intention of stopping the invasion of Ukraine.Attempts to persuade Putin should continue, but it seems impossible to stop the march unless the fundamental problem would be solved.
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Continued invasion of Ukraine - The Iraq War lasted for 8 years and 9 months with the participation of more than 40 countries.
There is a view that Russia is not as strong as expected as it was revealed in this invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has a population of about 44 million and the regular army has a population of about 210,000. Russia has a population of 140 million and the Russian army has a population of 900,000. Ukraine's GDP is 55th in the world, lower than Iraq. And in terms of location, it can be said that the Russian army is most likely to invade because it is a neighboring country. Belarus and Russia can also invade the capital Kyiv. Even so, even one month after the start of the war, it has not been suppressed. It is attracting attention in the sense that it is possible to fight so far just by providing weapons from developed countries.
The Iraq War lasted eight years and nine months. An airstrike on Baghdad by the US military was carried out on March 20, 2003, and Saddam Hussein was captured on December 13, 2003. More than 40 countries, including the United States and other developed countries, allies, and friendly countries, have made military intervention in Iraq. Still, it took eight years and nine months to conquer the whole of Iraq. What is different from Ukraine is that Iraq and its neighbors Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have not participated in the operation, and the countries that have conducted military intervention are dispatched to distant places.
After the capture of Hussein, destabilization in Iraq and guerrilla warfare continued. Even if we count the capture of Hussein, it will be about 9 months. Without nuclear weapons, it would take so much time to conquer a country even with modern weapons. And the common keyword is "national defense". In this sense, the Ukrainian war is likely to be prolonged if the goal is to control the whole country. On the other hand, Russia has said from the beginning that it is not thinking of controlling the whole of Ukraine. At what stage will the ceasefire agreement be reached? It presupposes that Russia's original goals will be achieved to some extent. There are many difficulties in the current negotiations as to how much Ukraine can accept Russia's demands.
Is Russia sending 1,000 mercenaries to Ukraine?Are the troops attacking Kiev really regular?
There are many reports that Ukrainian troops are fighting well to prevent Russian aggression, but Russian soldiers captured by Ukrainian soldiers are questionable."I came all the way here without knowing where I was going," "I participated in the battle without any training."Surprisingly, soldiers who make video calls with their mother in Russia and cry, "I want to go back to Russia soon."It is clear that they are conscripts and trainees, but what percentage of them participate?
The question from the beginning is whether the Russian camp attacking Kiev is really a regular army.It seems this Russian soldiers are not professional combat groups.So where is the regular army?Will it be a second wave?
CNN reported that Russia is expected to send up to 1,000 mercenaries to Ukraine in the next few days or weeks.A high-ranking Western intelligence official said, "The Russian government warned that it could "subdue multiple cities by bombing," adding, "As the war intensifies, many civilians will be killed."Where will Russian professional soldiers engage in operations and how will 1,000 mercenaries be deployed in the future?
The procession to Kiev seems to be aimed at concentrating Ukrainian soldiers on the defense of the capital.Russia, on the other hand, is continuously suppressing Zapoliza and Helson in the region from Donbas to Crimea.Are they going to take the time to attacking Kiev and buy time, while you subdue other key points?
Russia seems to be invading Ukraine for several purposes.What will be done before the fall of the capital and what will the next troops to be deployed in the future?
Russia Takes Control of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Southern Ukraine, IAEA Says
According to the IAEA, Russia has taken control of the Zapolyja nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine.Russia's Defense Ministry has informed the IAEA of its control.Ukraine denies it, but if Russia controls the nuclear power plant, it will be the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine.It generates half of Ukraine's nuclear power plants and generates one-fifth of Ukraine's total electricity.If Russia takes control of Zapolizia, Russia will be able to obtain Azov Sea by taking control of the area from Lugansk, Donetsk to Zapolizia and Crimea.
It is said that one of Russia's purposes is the sea.For this reason, Zaporizhzhia is a connected area between Crimea and Donetsk, so it was controlled.In this way, Odessa is located in southwestern Ukraine, with 41.9% speaking Russian.If Odessa is overpowered, Russia will be able to seize the Black Sea by conquering Donetsk, Zapolizia, Crimea, Odessa and southern Ukraine.Then you can stare at Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria, focusing on the Black Sea.
The Black Sea is said to be Russia's main goal in the war, although the military heading to Kiev is now attracting attention.
Russia has historically sought an antifreeze port.It seems that obtaining the Black Sea will be remembered in Russian history.
Daily cost of invasion of Ukraine is 2.4 trillion yen - Compared with the cost of fighting terrorism.
It is estimated that Russia's daily war expenses due to the invasion of Ukraine will exceed 2 trillion yen. This seems to be based on an analysis by Britain, but it is said that Russia's economic sanctions will come into effect and the war will not be able to continue.
In September 2021, a research team at the University of Brown compiled a report that the cost of a series of wars on terrorism would amount to $ 8 trillion (about 880 trillion yen) in the 20 years after the 9/11 attacks in the United States. .. The breakdown is $ 2.3 trillion (about 250 trillion yen) in Afghanistan and Pakistan, $ 2.1 trillion (about 230 trillion yen) in Iraq and Syria, and $ 2.2 trillion in medical treatment for veterans. It is (about 240 trillion yen). Estimating at 480 trillion yen excluding medical expenses for veterans, it will be 65.7 billion yen per day. If the cost of 230 trillion yen in Iraq and Syria is 8 years and 9 months, it will be about 720 yen per day. It looks like some digits are different.
Of course, if the number of soldiers put in, the fighters used, missiles, the price of ammunition, etc. differ greatly, the war cost will change significantly, but what is the difference in this war cost when those factors are excluded? It also seems to be effective in the sense that it shakes Russian public opinion. If the domestic economy is exhausted due to economic sanctions while spending a huge amount of war expenses per day, it is natural that criticism of the expenses caused by the war will arise. In any case, various information warfare is currently taking place.
The U.S. - Russia negotiations are expected to take place in the U.S. - Russia intelligence war. an outpost for the summit.
US President Biden announced on the 19th that Russia would invade Ukraine within the next few days, and President Putin said that he had decided to go to war. Russia has consistently stated that it has no intention of advancing into Ukraine. In an unprecedented move, President Putin made public a conversation he had with Foreign Minister Lavrov about the possibility of dialogue with Western countries. When Russia says it has withdrawn some of its troops, the US says it is increasing its troops. The purpose of this information warfare is currently a hot topic.
The only thing that is clear is that Ukraine has been militarily cut off from the West. President Biden immediately denied participation in the war, citing World War III. The longer this problem drags on, the more the Ukrainian economy will suffer. Currently, many foreign companies are withdrawing and foreigners are evacuating abroad. President Zelenskiy has ordered Western countries to refrain from making statements that suggest Russia is about to invade. In the first place, there was a strong view that Russia's original purpose was to shake up Zelensky's government. If the pro-American government continues, Russian troops will always be stationed on Ukraine's border, and if NATO membership becomes a reality, they will also deploy nuclear weapons to authoritarian Belarus.
At the U.S.-Russia summit meeting held on the 13th, Mr. Biden asked Mr. Putin first what Russia's demands were. There is criticism that it is impractical for diplomacy to listen to the other party's demands first. Therefore, Mr. Putin immediately demanded that NATO not expand to the east.
If this trend had continued, the negotiations would have resulted in the withdrawal of Russian troops in exchange for canceling Ukraine's membership in NATO. Mr. Biden agreed to hold a second meeting with Mr. Putin. Sanctions against the Ukrainian and Russian economies have already begun due to information warfare. By strengthening this, it appears as if Mr. Biden is trying to turn his position from being at a disadvantage to an advantage.
It will not be easy for the US to gain a negotiating advantage now that it has abandoned the military option. Economic sanctions have already begun.
