Can economic sanctions stop Russia's war?The cause of the war has not yet been discussed.
2022-03-12
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Will economic sanctions remain in effect after the war?
President Vladimir Putin has no intention of stopping the war amid economic sanctions imposed on Russia.In a telephone conversation with French President Jacques Macron, he said, "We will not stop attacking Ukraine until Russia has achieved its goals."Many media outlets, including Japan, predict that Russia will eventually end the war due to economic sanctions, but this is not the case.What is needed mainly to wage war is weapons to fight, fuel to power them, and food for soldiers.If these are missing, it will be difficult to continue the war.The idea that it is economically disadvantageous and profitable is a prewar discussion.
How was Japan in the past
I want you to remember Japan's past history.Japan was surrounded by ABCDs.This is a siege of A=America (USA), B=Britain (UK), C=China (China), and D=Dutch (Netherlands).As a result, Japan was blocked from ironwork, oil, and food, which were essential for the continuation of the war.What was the result?The Great East Asian War and the Pacific War began.The economic blockade is threatening the survival of the country, and Japan had been trying to build an Asian economic bloc by further promoting the idea of a "Great East Asian Co-prosperity Zone."The idea of a great East Asian co-prosperity zone was to expel Western colonial rule in Asia, and economic sanctions would compensate for the loss caused by developing the development of the great East Asian co-prosperity zone.
Russia capable of self-sufficiency in order to continue the war
When it comes to weapons, Russia is one of the world's leading military powers, and there are a lot of weapons already manufactured.In terms of fuel, Russia ranked seventh in the world in oil reserves and overtaken Saudi Arabia in ２０１０ as the world's largest oil producer.In terms of food, Russia's grain self-sufficiency rate is １２４%.In other words, what is needed to continue the war is mainly available in Russia.
Mining is also active, producing ３２% iron, ３１% nickel, ２７% tin, ２１% cobalt, and １４% uranium of global production, as well as copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, titanium, gold, platinum, and diamond.Moreover, exports of fuel and energy products, mainly oil and natural gas, account for two-thirds of Russia's total exports, and European countries cannot engage in economic activities without purchasing natural gas from Russia.Therefore, this part is not subject to economic sanctions.So, will this stop the war?
Even in the past, the only way to stop the war was to defeat the enemy or to eliminate the cause of the war.Economic sanctions did not stop Japan's military it had little resources at that time.
POINT Looking at the current situation in Russia, it seems that they have no intention of stopping the invasion of Ukraine.Attempts to persuade Putin should continue, but it seems impossible to stop the march unless the fundamental problem would be solved.
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Continued invasion of Ukraine - The Iraq War lasted for 8 years and 9 months with the participation of more than 40 countries.
There is a view that Russia is not as strong as expected as it was revealed in this invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has a population of about 44 million and the regular army has a population of about 210,000. Russia has a population of 140 million and the Russian army has a population of 900,000. Ukraine's GDP is 55th in the world, lower than Iraq. And in terms of location, it can be said that the Russian army is most likely to invade because it is a neighboring country. Belarus and Russia can also invade the capital Kyiv. Even so, even one month after the start of the war, it has not been suppressed. It is attracting attention in the sense that it is possible to fight so far just by providing weapons from developed countries.
The Iraq War lasted eight years and nine months. An airstrike on Baghdad by the US military was carried out on March 20, 2003, and Saddam Hussein was captured on December 13, 2003. More than 40 countries, including the United States and other developed countries, allies, and friendly countries, have made military intervention in Iraq. Still, it took eight years and nine months to conquer the whole of Iraq. What is different from Ukraine is that Iraq and its neighbors Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have not participated in the operation, and the countries that have conducted military intervention are dispatched to distant places.
After the capture of Hussein, destabilization in Iraq and guerrilla warfare continued. Even if we count the capture of Hussein, it will be about 9 months. Without nuclear weapons, it would take so much time to conquer a country even with modern weapons. And the common keyword is "national defense". In this sense, the Ukrainian war is likely to be prolonged if the goal is to control the whole country. On the other hand, Russia has said from the beginning that it is not thinking of controlling the whole of Ukraine. At what stage will the ceasefire agreement be reached? It presupposes that Russia's original goals will be achieved to some extent. There are many difficulties in the current negotiations as to how much Ukraine can accept Russia's demands.
How a country surrounded by great powers in history can remain an independent country.The Kingdom of Thailand was not colonized.
Speaking of how a country sandwiched between two major powers manages itself, there is the Kingdom of Thailand, which maintained its independence during the Asian colonial era. The white Asian colonies were ruled by the United Kingdom, which centered on India, France, which centered on Vietnam and Cambodia, and the Netherlands, which centered on Indonesia, so that they were not adjacent to each other.
Due to its geographical condition of being sandwiched between British and French colonial areas, Thailand takes advantage of the fact that Britain and France dislike being adjacent to each other, and does not lean towards either side, but acts as a buffer zone and transit point for both. Traded as land and profited from it.
On the Korean Peninsula, the Treaty of Tianjin was signed after the Kashin Coup, and the Japanese and Qing forces withdrew from the peninsula. This has the same meaning as the neutralization that Russia is seeking from Ukraine, which was confirmed in a treaty between Japan and Qing. However, due to the rebellion of the Donghak Party, Queen Min upset the balance and the Sino-Japanese War broke out. Empress Min thought that she could not control the civil war that had broken out in her country, so she requested reinforcements from the Qing Dynasty.
After the Sino-Japanese War, the Korean Peninsula became an independent country and established the Korean Empire, but it was devoted to Russia and tried to keep Japan and Qing in check. The Russo-Japanese War was the result of Russia's advance southward. In this case, too, it was a war between Japan and Russia.
The Korean Peninsula has no interest in the benefits of being a buffer zone, and has constantly implemented policies that disrupt the balance. As a result, the Korean government, believing that it would be unable to prevent the expansion of Russian interests, signed the Japan-Korea Annexation Treaty. Japan and Korea are not at war here. What is different from the Ukraine issue is that the Korean Peninsula was not subject to military invasion, and the issue was resolved between the major powers involved (Japan-Qing, Japan-Russia).
In Ukraine, a pro-Russian president and a pro-Western president have alternated every election. The eastern part has many residents who benefit from the economy with Russia, while the western part does business with Europe. With regard to domestic economic issues, if a pro-Western president is inaugurated, economic policies will be focused on Western areas, and if a pro-Russian president is inaugurated, economic policies will be focused on eastern areas. It will be done.
Although it may appear to be a security issue, economics has a lot to do with national elections. And while the current Zelensky administration is pro-Western, it has also taken an anti-Russian line. As a result, the security balance in Europe was seriously disrupted by the NATO membership issue.
In any case, times are different now. Russia has faced much criticism from the international community for its military invasion of these issues.
Negotiations on Ukraine broke down.Russia's goal is to neutralize and demilitarize Ukraine.NATO provides logistical support.
Negotiations on a ceasefire between Ukrainian and Russian delegations ended for five hours in Gomeri, southeastern Belarus, near the border with Ukraine.Ukraine has already notified of unconditional negotiations, and what this means is that it does not object to the recognition of independence of Lugansk and Donetsk.Russia seems to have offered conditions.
Russia's conditions are "neutralization" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine.This may seem like a peaceful settlement, but it is a completely different request."Neutralization" means Ukraine's non-NATO membership, and Ukraine's current intentions may be put aside but it would be accepted.However, "unarmed" means that there is no military, and that having an army is a legitimate right under international law included in a country's right to live, which means that it will no longer be a sovereign state.In other words, Russia has offered unacceptable conditions.As a result, the negotiations broke down and the negotiations were decided to negotiate next time.
Russia's original demand is NATO's non-expansion to the east.This has not changed since the beginning.So why can't Ukraine compromise on the terms of "neutralization" that it can accept?This also seems to mean that there will be no will of Russia to negotiat with Ukraine.Russia has taken military action against the possibility of NATO's eastern expansion to Ukraine and the deployment of NATO forces near the Russian border.In other words, it is fundamentally a matter of NATO and Russia.
NATO has consistently said that it is up to the will of the applicant countries to join NATO.In other words, NATO's passive stance is that it is the will of the applicant countries rather than the will of NATO.However, the war is continuing.Perhaps what Russia wants to negotiate is NATO troops.NATO wants further commitment to the non-expansion of the East.In this sense, Ukraine may not be Russia's negotiating partner.NATO is trying to stop the Russian military by imposing economic sanctions and arousing international public opinion.
If NATO agrees on non-expansion to the East ,and Ukraine as a neutral country, Ukraine's sovereignty and peace will be maintained, and both Russia and NATO will have important buffer states.If NATO or Russia sends troops to Ukraine, it will be a war between NATO and Russia.Then the military balance will be maintained.Indeed, for NATO, Ukraine's membership has little advantage.Therefore, Western countries immediately announced that they would not send troops to Ukraine to avoid war.
In Japanese history, there is a Tianjin Treaty signed with Qing in 1885.This means that the two sides will withdraw from the Korean Peninsula in order to ease tensions between Japan and China after the Kim Ok-kyun Gapsin Incident.In other words, the Korean Peninsula is considered a neutral military zone of military neutrality.As a result, Queen Min, who failed to suppress the Donghak Party's rebellion on the Korean Peninsula, asked Qing for reinforcements, which triggered the Japan-Qing War.Without such a blunder, Ukraine could become an independent country, and on the contrary, a stable and protected country between Russia and NATO.
Russia's request is simple and nothing has changed.NATO Western countries have become third parties to economic sanctions without participating in the war.Will NATO negotiate with Russia?
The CIA asked Zelensky to flee the country.Zelensky, who stayed in Ukraine, became a hero.
The U.S. told through the CIA to Zelensky You are Russia's "first goal".The Washington Post (WP) reported that the CIA told that we are ready to evacuate you and your family abroad.CIA Director William Burns is known to have mentioned the above issues to President Zelensky during his visit to Ukraine.In response, Zelensky said he would remain in Ukraine, and in Korea, he was called a hero with courage.Now, let's look at the CIA's request again.This encourages the president of a country to seek asylum abroad.In which world will the president of a war-torn or dangerous country defect abroad?The last time such incidents occurred in Afghanistan, it was clearly considered a renunciation of power.Afghan President Gani fled the Taliban's invasion and fled the country, and the Taliban quickly overpowered Afghanistan.
The president has strong authority.The most important thing is martial law and the authority of the commander-in-chief of the army.If martial law is issued, it will be possible to impose extra-legal domestic regulations.As commander-in-chief of the military, there are many operations that cannot be carried out without the president's permission.In other words, the United States urged Zelensky to relinquish these powers and flee abroad.Does this mean that the president should resign and end the war?
America has been in a third-party position on the Ukurina issue since the beginning.NATO countries responded the same way early on, announcing that they would not send U.S. troops to Ukraine.
90,000 Russian troops gather near the border. Will there be an invasion of Ukraine? Relationship between Putin and Zelensky.
Regarding his neighboring country Ukraine, President Putin appealed that ``Russians and Ukrainians are one people,'' and on July 12, he published a paper on the ``historical unity'' of the two countries. In a televised dialogue with the people on June 30, Mr. Putin was asked about relations with Ukraine, and he said, ``I don't think the Ukrainian people are unfriendly to us,'' and said, both peoples. said, ``We are one nation.''. On the other hand, he claimed that ``Ukraine's leadership is unfriendly,'' and argued that the problem lies with Zelensky's government, which is under Western influence.
President Putin criticizes current President Zelenskiy by name.
President Zelenskiy became president in 2019 with high approval ratings, but he is currently requesting that he join NATO. At a press conference on November 26, Mr. Zelenskiy said he had received information that a coup d'état was being planned for December 1, and also mentioned the possibility that Russia and top business conglomerates were involved.
I wonder if Russia will directly invade Ukraine in the form of war, as 90,000 Russian soldiers are currently gathered near the border. The supply of natural gas destined for Europe is said to be limited to about 4%.
The Communtern's strategy is to provoke other countries into internal conflict. Taking advantage of the internal conflict created, they intervene under the pretext of protecting Russians. The same pattern as in Crimea can be considered. Since Mr. Zelensky's approval rating is currently around 20%, it appears that Mr. Putin is trying to shake up Ukraine in order to oust Mr. Zelensky.
Russia also appears to be trying to shake up Zelenskiy's government from within Ukraine by applying military pressure on Ukraine.
