Ukraine crisis as seen from Cuban crisis. Cuba protected but Ukraine isolated.
2022-03-20
Category:Ukraine
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Former Soviet Union deploys nuclear weapons in Cuba
After Castro's successful Cuban Revolution in 1959, Cuba decided to pursue a socialist path and joined the socialist camp, and American capital was expelled.In 1961, President Eisenhauer broke off diplomatic relations with Cuba.Kennedy, the next president, failed in his attempt to overthrow Castro's revolutionary government by organizing Cubans who had defected to the United States to invade Cuba.In response, Castro stepped up his anti-U.S. stance and approached the Soviet Union, while Khrushchev deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba to gain an advantage over the U.S. by deploying nuclear weapons.
A world that has taken a step closer to nuclear war
In October 1962, a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance plane discovered that a Soviet missile base was under construction.The range covered the entire United States and made it easier to attack the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons.In a televised address on TV, President Kennedy declared that he would block the waters and airspace around Cuba to prevent the Soviet Union from bringing in weapons and ammunition and supplies used to make nuclear weapons.The Soviet Union was already in the process of sending ships loaded with goods and weapons to Cuba.Breaking through the U.S. blockade of the sea would have resulted in direct clashes, and the nuclear war crisis was imminent.The two leaders negotiated behind the scenes, and Khrushchev told Kennedy that the U.S. would remove its missile base in exchange for not invading Cuba. The agreement was reached on Oct. 27 to avoid a nuclear war crisis.
similarities and differences
What is the difference between the Ukraine crisis and the Cuban crisis?The U.S. and Russia are in the opposite position.Castro approached the Soviet Union with the aim of building a socialist country and Zelensky approached NATO as a democratic country.This is also the opposite.And the same is true of the crisis, but why?The biggest difference was that Kennedy and Khrushchev had a conversation to avoid war and were avoided at the last minute.The United States has taken the position that it is not the party concerned this time.
POINT The Cuban crisis was averted by dialogue between the United States and Russia.The U.S. has no intention of negotiating the Ukraine issue, only Ukraine was left behind
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Putin recognized Ukraine's pro - Russian forces independence. This is the mean that Russia will not to attack Ukraine.
On February 22, Putin recognized the independence of the People's Republic of Lugansk and the People's Republic of Ukraine.The Minsk Agreement (Minsk Protocol) was signed on September 5, 2014 in the People's Republic of Lugansk, the Donetsk People's Republic, Ukraine, and Russia. The agreement was virtually nullified and the civil war resumed.
The Crimean Peninsula issue is based on the involvement of Russian troops in order to make Crimean Peninsula independent and protect Russian residents.As a result, Crimea decided to join Russia through a referendum.
Putin has consistently said he will not attack Ukraine, but this is the answer.They will not attack Ukraine, but they will attack Lugansk and Donetsk.For Russia, the region is not Ukraine.
There are 1,497,170 people in the People's Republic of Lukansk and 2,299,120 people in the People's Republic of Tonetsk, totaling 3,796,290 people.Ukraine has a population of 44.13 million, so 8.6% of the population will leave.population of 1,967,000 on the Crimean Peninsula, In this recalculation, Russia will get for 12.5% of Ukraine's population.
If Ukrainian troops attack the People's Republic of Lugansk and the People's Republic of Donetsk, Russia and Ukraine will start a war.Russia's will not attack on Ukraine and not lead to war, but Ukraine's attack on the People's Republic of Lugansk and Donetsk lead to war.
Above all, NATO membership requires that the country is not in a state of civil war.If Ukraine claims that Lugansk and Donetsk belong to their own territory, the armistice agreement will be nullified, and if Ukraine tries to suppress it, it will become civil war and will not be able to join NATO.
Putin have made it clear that he will not attack Ukraine.Mr. Putin seems to be one step better than Mr. Biden.
The fifth Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiation was held in Turkey and ended - Is there a possibility of multilateral negotiations in the future?
A ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia was held in Istanbul, Turkey on the 29th."We have decided to drastically reduce military operations around Kiev and in Chernihu in the north to achieve the goal of signing the treaty by enhancing mutual trust and setting the necessary conditions for the next round of negotiations," NHK reported.Ukraine said it would accept neutrality by establishing a new security framework.Turkey's Foreign Minister, Chausch 外相or, said, "We have reached agreement on several items and have made the most meaningful progress so far."
According to Russian reports, the reduction of military operations means a halt to fighting between Kiev and Chernihu.Chernihu is a city just south of the border between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, where it passes to capture Kiev from Russia and Belarus.But Russian journalist Yuri Vasiliev has said the suspension of the fighting in Chernihu does not mean a reduction in Russian military activity.In other words, the troops reduced in the region will be distributed to other regions.
"The possibility of a meeting of heads of state to sign the treaty will be discussed," said Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation.This is not an easy problem."Especially to make it a multilateral conference with the participation of countries that guarantee peace and security in Ukraine."
In any case, Ukraine seems to be seeking neutrality on the premise of building new European security.This would require security agreements, including NATO members, rather than negotiations between Ukraine and Russia alone.Attention is focusing on whether NATO will change its position as a third party to provide weapons.
Four Ukrainian regions apply to be annexed to Russia - An area three times the size of Kyushu will be annexed to Russia.
Four Ukrainian regions apply for annexation to Russia
A huge area will be annexed
How do we measure the war situation
The former Soviet Union had the highest number of war deaths in the world
What will be the target value at the end of the war?
Referendums were held in four Ukrainian oblasts, and on the 28th, pro-Russian factions in the four oblasts officially applied to Russian President Vladimir Putin for annexation, claiming that the majority of votes were in favor of annexation to Russia. Mr. Putin is scheduled to declare the country's annexation to Russia on the 30th. It is reported that Russia is at a disadvantage in the war, and a partial mobilization order for 300,000 people has been issued, sparking much criticism at home and abroad.
The four oblasts scheduled to be annexed to Russia are Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. The total area was 108,840 km2. This area is approximately three times the size of Kyushu, Japan. South Korea has an area of 100,200 km2, so it's probably close in area. All of this will be annexed to Russia.
Opinions on whether the war situation is superior or inferior differ depending on the scale. Should we think in terms of the number of soldiers killed or in terms of territory? As an example, in World War II, the former Soviet Union drove back the advancing Nazis and ultimately led the Allies to victory.
The former Soviet Union had the highest number of deaths in World War II, estimated at 21.8 million to 28 million people. For Germany, it's between 7 million and 9 million people. The number of Japanese war dead is said to be between 2.62 million and 3.12 million. Still, Russia is a victorious country. As a result, the Nazis retreated, Hitler committed suicide, and the war ended because of the many sacrifices made by the former Soviet Union, but in other words, the outcome of the war cannot be said to be determined by the number of deaths. .
What will be interesting to watch in the future is whether Ukraine will attempt to take back these four regions. If future ceasefire negotiations include the return of these four states, the ceasefire will likely become hopeless. If that happens, it will also include the return of Crimea. In other words, there seems to be no other way than to get it back through combat. The Russian constitution stipulates that the president may not sign treaties that would result in the surrender of national territory.
International hacker groups target companies that do not withdraw from Russia.Japanese companies are among them.
On Twitter, the international hacker group Anonymous warned that its target would be a company that refuses to withdraw from Russia because it uses data collection from Russian companies to financially support Ukrainians.Among the companies receiving the warning are Japan's Dentsu International and Bridgestone.They wrote they give 48 hours to withdraw from Russia.We also tweeted that if you didn't withdraw, you would be under our target, and reported that we launched an unprecedented attack on the Russian government website.It increased its peak capacity from the previous 500GB and is now up to 1TB, two to three times more powerful than the most serious incidents.
The group also announced on March 18 that it tested 14,000 cameras around Kiev.We found vulnerabilities that are equally possible in Russia.He tweeted, adding that he would also proceed with camera intrusion tests in other major Ukrainian cities.On March 11th, anonymous called for a global boycott of Nestle products and claimed attacks on its site over the past few days against the company, which has more than 7,000 employees in Russia.Pizza chain Papa John's also criticized 190 Russian stores for continuing to operate.
On February 25, the group declared war on Russia, and on March 7, the group successfully hacked Russian state-run TV and online streaming sites, replacing images and reporting.
The image posted on twitter also includes Japanese companies.UNIQLO has also announced that it will not withdraw from Russia.
Russia criticizes Romania for lending an airport as participating in the war.Romania is a member of NATO.
Democracy has weakened.Under the pressure of China's economy, liberal countries are only fighting defense.The world is trembling with China's expansion and with Russia's ongoing military aggression.This means that solidarity between democracies has weakened.At least there was strong unity during the Cold War in liberal countries, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, liberal countries focused on their economic activities.The loss of the enemy means peace.With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Union of Eastern European Union collapsed.Russia and Belarus are now continuing to defend the former Soviet forces of the Soviet Union.Is Russia now the Soviet Union?No, not the Soviet Union, but Russia.So what is going on now?Is the world asking itself this question?
What is the significance of NATO's existence?The world had lived half a century under tension that even a single shell could lead to World War III, confronting a military alliance called Warsaw Treaty Organization had centered on the Soviet Union.Biden repeatedly said, "We will not wage war with Russia because World War III will come."Romania was criticized by Russia.In other words, if Rumania continues to lend airports to Ukraine. military, it will be considered as joining a war.Romania is a member of NATO.What would happen if Romania were bombarded by Russia?In this case, we would surprise if Biden says, "I won't participate in the war because World War III will come." And I wondered what the Cold War was.
There is no end to the Russian invasion.Putin said there would be a ceasefire only if Ukraine accepted all Russian demands.This can also be seen as an ultimatum to the negotiations.Economic sanctions have backfired in Ukraine's invasion.Russia wants to compensate for the loss of economic sanctions through aggression.
Putin said, "Economic sanctions in developed countries are like declaring war."Ironically, Russia doesn't seem to want to stop the invasion in the future.