The fifth Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiation was held in Turkey and ended - Is there a possibility of multilateral negotiations in the future?
2022-03-30
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Fives ceasefire negotiations held in Turkey
A ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia was held in Istanbul, Turkey on the 29th."We have decided to drastically reduce military operations around Kiev and in Chernihu in the north to achieve the goal of signing the treaty by enhancing mutual trust and setting the necessary conditions for the next round of negotiations," NHK reported.Ukraine said it would accept neutrality by establishing a new security framework.Turkey's Foreign Minister, Chausch 外相or, said, "We have reached agreement on several items and have made the most meaningful progress so far."
Reports in Russia have different nuances
According to Russian reports, the reduction of military operations means a halt to fighting between Kiev and Chernihu.Chernihu is a city just south of the border between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, where it passes to capture Kiev from Russia and Belarus.But Russian journalist Yuri Vasiliev has said the suspension of the fighting in Chernihu does not mean a reduction in Russian military activity.In other words, the troops reduced in the region will be distributed to other regions.
"The possibility of a meeting of heads of state to sign the treaty will be discussed," said Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation.This is not an easy problem."Especially to make it a multilateral conference with the participation of countries that guarantee peace and security in Ukraine."
Will multilateral conferences be realized?
In any case, Ukraine seems to be seeking neutrality on the premise of building new European security.This would require security agreements, including NATO members, rather than negotiations between Ukraine and Russia alone.Attention is focusing on whether NATO will change its position as a third party to provide weapons.
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Biden Emphasizes Polish Defense - Defense as NATO's Right to Collective Self - Defense.
In a meeting with President Duda in Poland on Wednesday, Biden stressed that as a member of NATO, he will take responsibility for the defense of Poland in connected with Ukraine."We see Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty as a sacred obligation.I don't care if you trust me," he said.Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the right to collective self-defense of NATO members.Shouldn't he have issued a statement immediately after the invasion of Ukraine instead of making a promise at the summit?
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty
Contracting States agree to regard armed attacks on one or more Contracting States in Europe or North America as attacks on all Contracting States.Consequently, the Contracting States agree that, in the event of such an armed attack, each Party shall assist the attacked Party by exercising the right of individual or collective self-defense permitted under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, individually and immediately.
Any such armed attack and any resulting action shall be immediately reported to the Security Council.Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken necessary measures to restore and maintain international peace and security.
This will allow NATO to exercise its right to collective self-defense against attacks on member states.This is why NATO is a powerful military alliance.After Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, it should have been the first to refer to this Article 5.By the way, after Trump took office, there was widespread concern that member states would not fulfill their defense obligations unless they increased their defense spending, but in June, at a joint press conference with Romanian President Johannes, he declared his support for Article 5.
Russia Takes Control of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Southern Ukraine, IAEA Says
According to the IAEA, Russia has taken control of the Zapolyja nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine.Russia's Defense Ministry has informed the IAEA of its control.Ukraine denies it, but if Russia controls the nuclear power plant, it will be the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine.It generates half of Ukraine's nuclear power plants and generates one-fifth of Ukraine's total electricity.If Russia takes control of Zapolizia, Russia will be able to obtain Azov Sea by taking control of the area from Lugansk, Donetsk to Zapolizia and Crimea.
It is said that one of Russia's purposes is the sea.For this reason, Zaporizhzhia is a connected area between Crimea and Donetsk, so it was controlled.In this way, Odessa is located in southwestern Ukraine, with 41.9% speaking Russian.If Odessa is overpowered, Russia will be able to seize the Black Sea by conquering Donetsk, Zapolizia, Crimea, Odessa and southern Ukraine.Then you can stare at Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria, focusing on the Black Sea.
The Black Sea is said to be Russia's main goal in the war, although the military heading to Kiev is now attracting attention.
Russia has historically sought an antifreeze port.It seems that obtaining the Black Sea will be remembered in Russian history.
Ukraine, which was denied accession to the EU, has been separated militarily and economically from Western Europe.
Zelensky posted a photo of him signing the application on Facebook on May 28."I will appeal for immediate recognition of EU membership through special procedures," he said."Ukraine is a member of us,I want you to join me." said Ursula Fondaleien, chairman of the European Commission, in an interview with European media on July 27.
Eight Eastern European countries supported Ukraine's participation in the EU, but European Union Foreign Affairs and Security Representative Joseph Borrell said it would take a long time to join.Fondaleien denied that his remarks meant that he wanted Ukraine to join the Europe.
Ukraine has also lost its ladder in Europe.I don't know what it means to wait to join EU for a long time, but He may considered it is clear that Ukraine's joining EU would current Russian invasion make worsen the war situation.Ukraine made efforts to join the EU under President Yushchenko, but in November 2013, Yanukovych's administration postponed signing political and trade agreements with the EU and strengthened ties with Russia.Zelensky's current policy is to escape Russian influence and enter the West in economic and military terms, but both NATO and the EU are uncertain about Ukraine's joining.
Did the introduction of attack drones into eastern Ukraine create an excuse for the Russian invasion?
Looking at the situation in Ukraine and having seen it for some time before, there are many doubts about Zelensky's foreign policy.Did he understand the implications of not having talks with Putin and not having summit talks with neighboring countries?The Japan-South Korea issue is nothing more than a diplomatic conflict that does not develop into a so-called war within the U.S.-Japan military alliance, but will it be same in this sensitive area of Ukraine?
Perhaps because he was too confident that he could join NATO only through verbal negotiations with Europe and the U.S., Ukraine's military staff announced on October 26, 2021 that they had launched an attack on forces in eastern Ukraine with an attack drone, TB2.Russia warned on 27 that the conflict could escalate.Since countries with conflicts cannot join NATO, did they physically try to end the conflict?Attack drones are said to be game changers for air warfare around the world, and their range of operations is unknown, and they are weapons that countries have been paying attention to in recent years.The cancellation of the Minsk agreement was done by Ukraine.Ninety thousand Russian troops gathered near the border just days after the launch of an attack drone into eastern Ukraine.
What would happen if President Tsai Ying-wen physically attacked an election area seeking integration with China in Taiwan and China?It only gives an excuse for China's armed invasion.Why don't Taiwan declare its independence while building close relations with Japan and the United States?This is because President Chae himself understands that he has not reached the phase of a military alliance.
It is natural that the Ukrainian people are not responsible at all.Their right to live their daily lives should be protected and their actions to kill civilians should be condemned.However, the most puzzling thing is that reports from each country are explained in a series by the story that Russia suddenly gathered 90,000 people near the border.
Has Ukraine given up NATO membership? Zelensky says NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.
Zelensky said he no longer wants Ukraine to join NATO.This is one of the reasons why Russia invaded its pro-Western neighbors.NATO also said it was not ready to accept Ukraine.He said on February 24 he was ready to "compromise" on the status of two pro-Russian territories that President Vladimir Putin acknowledged as independent just before the invasion.Zelensky told NATO members through an interpreter that he did not want to be president of a "kneeling country."
Western countries have consistently said they will not send troops to Ukraine.In response, Zelensky repeatedly appealed for NATO cooperation, but he calmly considered the current situation and thought it would be difficult to join NATO.At the same time, Zelensky is demanding Ukraine's security from both NATO and Russia, and how to achieve this will be a challenge.Have there been any examples of NATO-Russia agreements in the past?In other words, considering what would happen if one side broke its promise, we would have to be very cautious about the NATO-Russia deal.
In any case, the only solution is to protect Ukraine's security.How to achieve this is the key to solving this problem.In other words, Zelensky has begun to agree.
What kind of response will NATO and Russia make to President Zelensky's message?
