Four Ukrainian regions apply to be annexed to Russia - An area three times the size of Kyushu will be annexed to Russia.
2022-09-30
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Four Ukrainian regions apply for annexation to Russia
Referendums were held in four Ukrainian oblasts, and on the ２８th, pro-Russian factions in the four oblasts officially applied to Russian President Vladimir Putin for annexation, claiming that the majority of votes were in favor of annexation to Russia. Mr. Putin is scheduled to declare the country's annexation to Russia on the ３０th. It is reported that Russia is at a disadvantage in the war, and a partial mobilization order for ３００,０００ people has been issued, sparking much criticism at home and abroad.
A huge area is annexed
The four oblasts scheduled to be annexed to Russia are Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. The total area was １０８,８４０ km２. This area is approximately three times the size of Kyushu, Japan. South Korea has an area of １００,２００ km２, so it's probably close in area. All of this will be annexed to Russia.
How do we measure the war situation
Opinions on whether the war situation is superior or inferior differ depending on the scale. Should we think in terms of the number of soldiers killed or in terms of territory? As an example, in World War II, the former Soviet Union drove back the advancing Nazis and ultimately led the Allies to victory.
The former Soviet Union had the highest number of war deaths in the world
The former Soviet Union had the highest number of deaths in World War II, estimated at ２１.８ million to ２８ million people. For Germany, it's between ７ million and ９ million people. The number of Japanese war dead is said to be between ２.６２ million and ３.１２ million. Still, Russia is a victorious country. As a result, the Nazis retreated, Hitler committed suicide, and the war ended because of the many sacrifices made by the former Soviet Union, but in other words, the outcome of the war cannot be said to be determined by the number of deaths. .
What will be the target value at the end of the war?
What will be interesting to watch in the future is whether Ukraine will attempt to take back these four regions. If future ceasefire negotiations include the return of these four states, the ceasefire will likely become hopeless. If that happens, it will also include the return of Crimea. In other words, there seems to be no other way than to get it back through combat. The Russian constitution stipulates that the president may not sign treaties that would result in the surrender of national territory.
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Attacks on Ukrainian military installations began.Russia claims to be a peacekeeping mission.Japan should improve its ability to attack enemy bases.
Russia is attacking Ukrainian military facilities throughout Ukraine.Russia's Defense Ministry said it has attacked more than 80 Ukrainian military facilities, including 11 airports.Military facilities in the suburbs of Kiev were attacked by cruise missiles, as well as Kramatorsk, Ukraine's eastern stronghold, and military facilities in the south.
Putin justified the attack, saying, "There is no alternative," adding, "We are safe because we have not attacked the private sector."Russia's defense of the two states, Lugansk and Donetsk, is believed to have been based on the premise that Ukrainian troops will be dispatched to prevent the attack.Currently, pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are controlling a part of the two states and trying to control all of the two states and Russia support them in the rear.
Japan, led by Europe and the U.S., has also announced economic sanctions, but economic sanctions cannot physically stop Russia's march.Ukrainian President Zelensky said he would "consider" breaking off diplomatic relations with Russia, but this would be meaningless.At the same time, he said he would "defend Ukraine" and did not mention war with Russia.Perhaps just a matter of time, the two eastern states will belong to Russia.Ukraine's military facilities have been destroyed and Russia's military facilities have remained intact.
The Japanese government has also expressed its opinion that the Japanese Defense Minister is within the scope of self-defense, but there are still many objections.In other words, we can see in real time how unrealistic and vulnerable only doing defense is.
military aggression is a physical problem, and economic sanctions are just economic sanctions.The ongoing problem is the issue of military aggression.
Zelensky said he would die because of NATO.Next, all three Baltic countries. Zelensky urged Western countries to strengthen their military support for Ukraine, saying, "If Russia overcomes Ukraine, it could invade Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia next time."In response to NATO's denial of the possibility of establishing a no-fly zone in Ukraine on July 7, he said, "Many people will be killed because of NATO."The Baltic states are NATO members.Let's look at Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
North Atlantic Treaty
Article 5
Contracting States agree to regard armed attacks against one or more Contracting States in Europe or North America as attacks against all Contracting States.Accordingly, in the event of such armed attack, the Contracting States shall exercise their individual or collective right to self-defense (including the use of forces) as they deem necessary to restore and maintain security in the North Atlantic region.
The aforementioned armed attacks and all measures taken as a result shall be reported immediately to the Security Council.Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council takes necessary measures to restore and maintain international peace and security.
It can be seen from this that attacks on NATO members are considered attacks on NATO as a whole, and that the right to collective self-defense will be exercised.Russia's invasion of Ukraine was caused by Russia's reluctance to allow NATO troops to move near the Russian border, so Russia wants to create an environment that will not lead to war with NATO.Most importantly, Russia invaded Ukraine before NATO joined because it understood that Article 5 would be invoked.NATO's consistent stance of not entering Ukraine and not establishing a no-fly zone are aimed at avoiding an all-out war between Russia and NATO by exercising the right to collective self-defense.
Russia's next target is Moldova and Georgia, non-NATO members around the Black Sea, not the Baltic countries.
Russia is suppressing southeastern states in order to get the Black Sea.Non-NATO members around the Black Sea may be at risk rather than attacking NATO members.
Putin recognized Ukraine's pro - Russian forces independence. This is the mean that Russia will not to attack Ukraine.
On February 22, Putin recognized the independence of the People's Republic of Lugansk and the People's Republic of Ukraine.The Minsk Agreement (Minsk Protocol) was signed on September 5, 2014 in the People's Republic of Lugansk, the Donetsk People's Republic, Ukraine, and Russia. The agreement was virtually nullified and the civil war resumed.
The Crimean Peninsula issue is based on the involvement of Russian troops in order to make Crimean Peninsula independent and protect Russian residents.As a result, Crimea decided to join Russia through a referendum.
Putin has consistently said he will not attack Ukraine, but this is the answer.They will not attack Ukraine, but they will attack Lugansk and Donetsk.For Russia, the region is not Ukraine.
There are 1,497,170 people in the People's Republic of Lukansk and 2,299,120 people in the People's Republic of Tonetsk, totaling 3,796,290 people.Ukraine has a population of 44.13 million, so 8.6% of the population will leave.population of 1,967,000 on the Crimean Peninsula, In this recalculation, Russia will get for 12.5% of Ukraine's population.
If Ukrainian troops attack the People's Republic of Lugansk and the People's Republic of Donetsk, Russia and Ukraine will start a war.Russia's will not attack on Ukraine and not lead to war, but Ukraine's attack on the People's Republic of Lugansk and Donetsk lead to war.
Above all, NATO membership requires that the country is not in a state of civil war.If Ukraine claims that Lugansk and Donetsk belong to their own territory, the armistice agreement will be nullified, and if Ukraine tries to suppress it, it will become civil war and will not be able to join NATO.
Putin have made it clear that he will not attack Ukraine.Mr. Putin seems to be one step better than Mr. Biden.
Poland's supply of fighter jets is in trouble.Ukraine says it will accept neutrality.
Poland's plan to supply Soviet-made fighter jets to Ukraine seems to be in trouble.The Polish government announced on August 8 that it would hand over fighter jets to the U.S. and provide them to Ukraine via the U.S., but the U.S. expressed its intention not to accept Poland's proposal for fear of Russian opposition.
The Ukrainian Air Force announced on August 1 that it would receive 28 MiG-29s from Poland, but Poland later denied the infomation handing them over.Poland's attempt to provide Mig-29 via the U.S. due to pressure from Russia but The U.S. rejected .Romania has been threatened by Russia, saying it recognizes Ukraine's use of the airport .It is clear that Europe is still supplying weapons to Ukraine, and fighter jets are one of its weapons, but is it different to say that fighter jets or air force aid?
Ukraine asked NATO to set up a no-fly zone, but NATO refused.The establishment of a no-fly zone means NATO's deployment of fighter jets to shoot down Russian aircraft, which means NATO's participation in the war.Ukraine's demand to do something about intensifying air strikes was not met, and furthermore, it is difficult to provide fighter jets from Poland.
Zelensky's ruling party, "People's Servant," announced on August 8 if neighboring countries, including NATO and Russia, will guarantee Ukraine's security and neutrality, Ukraine will accept the order of Russian neutrality .However, it is unclear how the negotiations will proceed as Russia demands Total abolition of Ukraine's army and Ukraine refuses to recognize the independence of Donetsk and the People's Republic of Lugansk.
In conclusion, after the Crimean crisis, Ukraine's intention to join NATO is a security issue, but if NATO and Russia guarantee Ukraine's neutrality and security, there will be no need to stick to NATO membership.And this may have been something to be negotiated before the war.The only solution to the issue is to treat Ukraine as a buffer zone and maintain peacefully.But the war has already begun, and the problem is much more complicated than before.Ukraine's ruling party's intentions are premised on negotiations between NATO and Russia.
If Ukraine is guaranteed peace as a neutral region, Russia will not be adjacent to NATO and will meet Russia's original requirements.
Mr. Ruri Miura said that NATO's eastern expansion was not correct - Useless fanning - Mr. Trump would have been in harmony. Mr. Miura said that NATO's eastern expansion was incorrect.
Ruri Miura, an international political scientist, said, "It wasn't right at all" when asked "Is NATO's eastern expansion correct?" It is a view that goes against the tone of the media. In terms of content, did Russia need to provoke unnecessarily when it was not sufficiently weakened and could still lead to war as a nuclear power? Is saying. In addition, in response to the question "What if Mr. Trump was the president?", He instructed NATO not to expand eastward if he was Mr. Trump, and said that it is highly likely that he had taken Russia's request. The reason is that he is not so interested in Ukraine. At least Mr. Trump wouldn't have gone to at least the invasion of Kyiv. In other words, the United States does not have many interests in Ukraine, has weak trade relations, whould be regarded as a problem in the former Eastern Europe, and NATO does not unnecessarily stimulate it.
Japan, like the United States, has little substantial relationship with Ukraine. It is necessary to look at this problem calmly apart from Western countries. Looking at the tone of the media and the internet, this war is only talked about from a sentimental point of view. As Miura pointed out in an interview, "Wars of this scale have occurred many times around the world, but why is the Ukrainian issue the only focus? It is a war between developed countries. . "
As I have posted before, Ukraine's accession to NATO was a very risky attempt to completely siege Moscow. This would require a high degree of diplomatic reconciliation, but no attempt was made. In the opposite position, if a hostile nation deploys a missile 600 km to the capital of the United States, the United States should invade the military instantly. It is necessary to separate the argument that the war is happening now and that it must be ended as soon as possible and the argument that the cause of the war has started. However, it goes without saying that Russia's actions cannot be justified. Most importantly, the road to the end of the war will only be long if the cause of the beginning of the war is not removed.
