Biden Emphasizes Polish Defense - Defense as NATO's Right to Collective Self - Defense.
2022-03-27
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Poland protected by the right to collective self-defense
In a meeting with President Duda in Poland on Wednesday, Biden stressed that as a member of NATO, he will take responsibility for the defense of Poland in connected with Ukraine."We see Article ５ of the North Atlantic Treaty as a sacred obligation.I don't care if you trust me," he said.Article ５ of the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the right to collective self-defense of NATO members.Shouldn't he have issued a statement immediately after the invasion of Ukraine instead of making a promise at the summit?
Article ５ of the North Atlantic Treaty
Contracting States agree to regard armed attacks on one or more Contracting States in Europe or North America as attacks on all Contracting States.Consequently, the Contracting States agree that, in the event of such an armed attack, each Party shall assist the attacked Party by exercising the right of individual or collective self-defense permitted under Article ５１ of the United Nations Charter, individually and immediately.
Any such armed attack and any resulting action shall be immediately reported to the Security Council.Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken necessary measures to restore and maintain international peace and security.
Confirmation of Article ５ that feels slow
This will allow NATO to exercise its right to collective self-defense against attacks on member states.This is why NATO is a powerful military alliance.After Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, it should have been the first to refer to this Article ５.By the way, after Trump took office, there was widespread concern that member states would not fulfill their defense obligations unless they increased their defense spending, but in June, at a joint press conference with Romanian President Johannes, he declared his support for Article ５.
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How will the Ukraine issue end?What's the possibility of a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine?Is there a way to solve it?
What is the root of Ukraine's problem?At first glance, Russia, angry at Ukraine's commitment to the West, launched a military invasion, but this is essentially a matter of military demarcation.NATO included Ukraine in its group of "future participants" in 2008.Membership is subject to unanimity of the Member States.Among them, Zelensky, who strongly urged NATO participation, was elected president in 2019, strengthening his influence on Europe and the United States.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference after an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in April 2021, "Ukraine has the right to apply for membership".Russia strongly criticized the USS (DDG-71) Ross, a U.S. naval missile destroyer, for entering the Black Sea on June 26 in the name of military exercises.
If Ukraine joins NATO, Europe's military demarcation line will be drastically changed.It is about 920 kilometers by land from Stapa, a city near the Romanian border, to Shotoska, a Ukrainian city near the Russian border.In other words, the military demarcation line will move at least 900 kilometers.NATO has repeatedly argued that this is Ukraine's intention, and NATO is on the side of accepting it.
For example, what would Japan say if Russia announced that it would build a large-scale military, naval and air base in the northern territories?Please, it can't be helped because it's Russia's right.I don't think so.The difference is that Japan does not take military action, but Russia tries to stop it by taking military action.This is Russia's mistake and to be criticized, but the war has actually begun.
The problem seems to be Ukraine's, but it is fundamentally NATO and Russia's.Joining NATO is own to Ukraine's will, NATO said it would not send troops to Ukraine, maintaining a third-party position.In a sense,NATO want to say this is not a NATO issue, but a Ukraine issue.Is that really the case?
What is the specific way to stop Russia's invasion?Currently, the world is imposing economic sanctions on Russia.How likely is this to stop Russia?It is said that the ruble has plummeted, but it has fallen by about 20 percent.Russia's main industrial structure is resource trade, making it more difficult to default than that of processing trade-oriented countries.The key is how long Russia's economy will last, but what is the time axis?
Anti-war demonstrations are taking place around the world.While they are effective in calling for a coalition of liberal countries and arousing international public opinion, the key is how much they can influence Russian public opinion.Russia is not a country with freedom of expression, and anti-war protesters in Russia are being arrested one after another.Only the Russian people can oust Putin.But Russia's next presidential election will be 2024.
Ukraine is negotiating a ceasefire with Russia. Will this stop the war?One of the conditions Russia is proposing to Ukraine is "demilitarization."I don't think Ukraine will drink this.And, as mentioned above, it is doubtful whether Ukraine is an opportunity for Russia and a negotiating partner.Russia has always said the problem is NATO's expansion to the east.
If this is a matter of military demarcation, who is involved?That is NATO and Russia.The most fundamental solution is to reach a truce agreement through consultations between the two parties and Ukraine.But NATO will not change its position as a third party.International public opinion is moving toward anti-war movements based on sympathy for Ukraine, but another direction for international public opinion is to bring NATO to the negotiating table, regardless of whether it is good or bad.
Ukraine is not a NATO member, so I understand that Western countries will not participate in the war, but will they never sit at the negotiating table?If not, there is a high possibility that the invasion of Ukraine will not stop.
Ukraine, which was denied accession to the EU, has been separated militarily and economically from Western Europe.
Zelensky posted a photo of him signing the application on Facebook on May 28."I will appeal for immediate recognition of EU membership through special procedures," he said."Ukraine is a member of us,I want you to join me." said Ursula Fondaleien, chairman of the European Commission, in an interview with European media on July 27.
Eight Eastern European countries supported Ukraine's participation in the EU, but European Union Foreign Affairs and Security Representative Joseph Borrell said it would take a long time to join.Fondaleien denied that his remarks meant that he wanted Ukraine to join the Europe.
Ukraine has also lost its ladder in Europe.I don't know what it means to wait to join EU for a long time, but He may considered it is clear that Ukraine's joining EU would current Russian invasion make worsen the war situation.Ukraine made efforts to join the EU under President Yushchenko, but in November 2013, Yanukovych's administration postponed signing political and trade agreements with the EU and strengthened ties with Russia.Zelensky's current policy is to escape Russian influence and enter the West in economic and military terms, but both NATO and the EU are uncertain about Ukraine's joining.
Ukraine and World War II.How far will economic sanctions stop Russia?
Countries are tightening economic sanctions against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Russia's ruble fell to about 66 percent.Others are skeptical about whether economic sanctions will stop Russia's march and say sanctions are working.What do you think of past wars?In World War I, Germany was defeated and had to pay heavy compensation.After the Great Depression, the Nazis grew stronger in this envioroment and became the first party in Germany's economy.
After the Manchurian Incident, An ABCD encirclement network had established against Japan, and after the Nogokyo Incident, Japan's economy was completely surrounded.It is more like an economic blockade than an economic sanction.For Japan, where all supplies and oil were stopped and resources were scarce, it was like a food attack.As a result, the Nazis invaded all of Europe and Japan entered the Great East Asian War and the Pacific War.After World War II, postwar processing was based on international recognition that Germany's compensation in World War I eventually led to World War II. And China gave up its claim for compensation to Japan when diplomatic relations between China and Japan were normalized.
U.S. economic blockade against Japan
July 1939 (Showa 14) Notice of Abolition of the Japan-U.S. Trade and Navigation Treaty
In December 1939, we notified them to stop exporting aircraft gasoline manufacturing equipment and manufacturing technology rights as moral embago.
The Japan-U.S. Trade and Navigation Treaty expired in January 1940
June 1940 (Showa 15) Export license system for special machine tools, etc. to Japan
In July 1940, the Defense Enhancement Promotion Act was enacted (the president's authority to select export items)
July 26, 1940 (Showa 15) Enacted the Export Control Act on Steel and Steel Export Cutting Oil
August 1940 Export license system for petroleum products (mainly aviation fuel with octane value of 87 or higher), tetraethyl lead, iron and scrap iron for aviation gasoline addition
August 1940: Total embargo on aircraft fuel outside the Western Hemisphere
September 1940: Total embargo on scrap iron
December 1940 Export license system for aircraft lubricating oil manufacturing equipment and 15 other items
Oil export license system in June 1941
July 1941 Order for Freezing Japanese Assets in the United States
August 1941: Total oil embargo on JapanList Excerpt Wikipedia
It is unclear how the economic sanctions against Russia will work, but it is highly likely that the war will accelerate in the face of national survival.Or Russia may start to compensate for its economic losses by merging Moldova and Georgia, not just Ukraine.Can North Korea explain what it is doing under U.N. economic sanctions?Ironically, it was war that ended the war.Or eliminate the cause of the war.
The world seems to be doing exactly what was done 100 years ago.Russia says it will not stop the war until it completes its operation.
Putin and Macron hold telephone talks - Armistice negotiations make no progress - Helson Province falls.
In a telephone conversation with French President Jacques Macron on August 3, Putin said, "The most important thing is Ukraine's demilitarization and neutrality, so that there is no threat to Russia."
The governor of the southern Ukrainian state of Helson, adjacent to Crimea, announced on August 3 that the state government building was completely occupied due to the control of the Zapolizia nuclear power plant.It is the first time that a Russian invasion has captured a major Ukrainian city.The second truce between Ukraine and Russia was held on the same day, but no progress was made in the negotiations, and the two countries agreed to set up a "humanitarian corridor" to evacuate civilians and decided to hold the second round.
Putin told President Macron that it would not change its demands for demilitarization and neutrality in negotiations, saying that the purpose of the military operation could be achieved in any case.Russia is currently operating in various regions, and it is reported that the advance to Kiev is 25 kilometers behind schedule, but some say that the armistice negotiations are simply buying Russian time.
Countries are putting pressure on Russia through economic sanctions and UN resolutions, but Putin's will is as shown on August 3.He's going to get the Black Sea, and will Odessa be his next goal?
Putin reiterated his determination to carry out the operation and is determined to continue the battle.More than one million refugees are reportedly fleeing Ukraine.
Ukraine crisis as seen from Cuban crisis. Cuba protected but Ukraine isolated.
After Castro's successful Cuban Revolution in 1959, Cuba decided to pursue a socialist path and joined the socialist camp, and American capital was expelled.In 1961, President Eisenhauer broke off diplomatic relations with Cuba.Kennedy, the next president, failed in his attempt to overthrow Castro's revolutionary government by organizing Cubans who had defected to the United States to invade Cuba.In response, Castro stepped up his anti-U.S. stance and approached the Soviet Union, while Khrushchev deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba to gain an advantage over the U.S. by deploying nuclear weapons.
In October 1962, a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance plane discovered that a Soviet missile base was under construction.The range covered the entire United States and made it easier to attack the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons.In a televised address on TV, President Kennedy declared that he would block the waters and airspace around Cuba to prevent the Soviet Union from bringing in weapons and ammunition and supplies used to make nuclear weapons.The Soviet Union was already in the process of sending ships loaded with goods and weapons to Cuba.Breaking through the U.S. blockade of the sea would have resulted in direct clashes, and the nuclear war crisis was imminent.The two leaders negotiated behind the scenes, and Khrushchev told Kennedy that the U.S. would remove its missile base in exchange for not invading Cuba. The agreement was reached on Oct. 27 to avoid a nuclear war crisis.
What is the difference between the Ukraine crisis and the Cuban crisis?The U.S. and Russia are in the opposite position.Castro approached the Soviet Union with the aim of building a socialist country and Zelensky approached NATO as a democratic country.This is also the opposite.And the same is true of the crisis, but why?The biggest difference was that Kennedy and Khrushchev had a conversation to avoid war and were avoided at the last minute.The United States has taken the position that it is not the party concerned this time.
The Cuban crisis was averted by dialogue between the United States and Russia.The U.S. has no intention of negotiating the Ukraine issue, only Ukraine was left behind
