Ukrainian army retakes strategic Liman in Donetsk region - will attack on annexed region push Russia into a state of war?
2022-10-03
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Ukraine regains eastern Liman
Ukraine has recaptured the strategic town of Liman in the eastern Donetsk region. It seems that they have advanced further since Kharkiv the other day. What is surprising is the operational capabilities of the Ukrainian military, as well as the weakness of the Russian military. Russian army is too weak. After the mobilization order for ３００,０００ people was issued, there is no end to the number of Russians fleeing near the border, and Russian soldiers who were captured from the beginning said, ``I want to see my mother, I want to go home.'' Cried.
Will the division strategy become an enemy?
From the beginning, Russia marched in an arc across the east, attempting to divide the Ukrainian army. However, the situation is now reversed, with the Ukrainian military now targeting areas where it is weak. It has been pointed out that this way of positioning is effective when going on the offensive, but it puts you at a disadvantage when going on the defensive.
Will Russia declare war?
What will be interesting to see in the retaking of Liman is whether Russia will declare a state of war. Currently, Russia is framing this as a special military operation aimed at peacekeeping operations. In other words, the people are not directly involved in this, it is a military operation and a policy of the Russian government. That is why the sudden partial mobilization order for ３００,０００ people caused so much unrest.
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Continued invasion of Ukraine - The Iraq War lasted for 8 years and 9 months with the participation of more than 40 countries.
There is a view that Russia is not as strong as expected as it was revealed in this invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has a population of about 44 million and the regular army has a population of about 210,000. Russia has a population of 140 million and the Russian army has a population of 900,000. Ukraine's GDP is 55th in the world, lower than Iraq. And in terms of location, it can be said that the Russian army is most likely to invade because it is a neighboring country. Belarus and Russia can also invade the capital Kyiv. Even so, even one month after the start of the war, it has not been suppressed. It is attracting attention in the sense that it is possible to fight so far just by providing weapons from developed countries.
The Iraq War lasted eight years and nine months. An airstrike on Baghdad by the US military was carried out on March 20, 2003, and Saddam Hussein was captured on December 13, 2003. More than 40 countries, including the United States and other developed countries, allies, and friendly countries, have made military intervention in Iraq. Still, it took eight years and nine months to conquer the whole of Iraq. What is different from Ukraine is that Iraq and its neighbors Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have not participated in the operation, and the countries that have conducted military intervention are dispatched to distant places.
After the capture of Hussein, destabilization in Iraq and guerrilla warfare continued. Even if we count the capture of Hussein, it will be about 9 months. Without nuclear weapons, it would take so much time to conquer a country even with modern weapons. And the common keyword is "national defense". In this sense, the Ukrainian war is likely to be prolonged if the goal is to control the whole country. On the other hand, Russia has said from the beginning that it is not thinking of controlling the whole of Ukraine. At what stage will the ceasefire agreement be reached? It presupposes that Russia's original goals will be achieved to some extent. There are many difficulties in the current negotiations as to how much Ukraine can accept Russia's demands.
If Russia is attacked
In the event of a state of war, martial law would be imposed and military conscription could be carried out at random. That is exactly the situation in Ukraine. Liman is in a region that was recently incorporated into Russia, so in theory it means that Russia was attacked. It is also said that Mr. Putin's decision to annex Russia was to raise the country to a state of war.
Putin's power domestically
If Putin is unable to declare a state of war, it would mean that his power in domestic politics has weakened. If martial law were to be declared, the sons of politicians would also have to be sent to the battlefield.
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Mr. Ruri Miura said that NATO's eastern expansion was not correct - Useless fanning - Mr. Trump would have been in harmony. Mr. Miura said that NATO's eastern expansion was incorrect.
Ruri Miura, an international political scientist, said, "It wasn't right at all" when asked "Is NATO's eastern expansion correct?" It is a view that goes against the tone of the media. In terms of content, did Russia need to provoke unnecessarily when it was not sufficiently weakened and could still lead to war as a nuclear power? Is saying. In addition, in response to the question "What if Mr. Trump was the president?", He instructed NATO not to expand eastward if he was Mr. Trump, and said that it is highly likely that he had taken Russia's request. The reason is that he is not so interested in Ukraine. At least Mr. Trump wouldn't have gone to at least the invasion of Kyiv. In other words, the United States does not have many interests in Ukraine, has weak trade relations, whould be regarded as a problem in the former Eastern Europe, and NATO does not unnecessarily stimulate it.
Japan, like the United States, has little substantial relationship with Ukraine. It is necessary to look at this problem calmly apart from Western countries. Looking at the tone of the media and the internet, this war is only talked about from a sentimental point of view. As Miura pointed out in an interview, "Wars of this scale have occurred many times around the world, but why is the Ukrainian issue the only focus? It is a war between developed countries. . "
As I have posted before, Ukraine's accession to NATO was a very risky attempt to completely siege Moscow. This would require a high degree of diplomatic reconciliation, but no attempt was made. In the opposite position, if a hostile nation deploys a missile 600 km to the capital of the United States, the United States should invade the military instantly. It is necessary to separate the argument that the war is happening now and that it must be ended as soon as possible and the argument that the cause of the war has started. However, it goes without saying that Russia's actions cannot be justified. Most importantly, the road to the end of the war will only be long if the cause of the beginning of the war is not removed.
Ukraine, which was denied accession to the EU, has been separated militarily and economically from Western Europe.
Zelensky posted a photo of him signing the application on Facebook on May 28."I will appeal for immediate recognition of EU membership through special procedures," he said."Ukraine is a member of us,I want you to join me." said Ursula Fondaleien, chairman of the European Commission, in an interview with European media on July 27.
Eight Eastern European countries supported Ukraine's participation in the EU, but European Union Foreign Affairs and Security Representative Joseph Borrell said it would take a long time to join.Fondaleien denied that his remarks meant that he wanted Ukraine to join the Europe.
Ukraine has also lost its ladder in Europe.I don't know what it means to wait to join EU for a long time, but He may considered it is clear that Ukraine's joining EU would current Russian invasion make worsen the war situation.Ukraine made efforts to join the EU under President Yushchenko, but in November 2013, Yanukovych's administration postponed signing political and trade agreements with the EU and strengthened ties with Russia.Zelensky's current policy is to escape Russian influence and enter the West in economic and military terms, but both NATO and the EU are uncertain about Ukraine's joining.
How a country surrounded by great powers in history can remain an independent country.The Kingdom of Thailand was not colonized.
Speaking of how a country sandwiched between two major powers manages itself, there is the Kingdom of Thailand, which maintained its independence during the Asian colonial era. The white Asian colonies were ruled by the United Kingdom, which centered on India, France, which centered on Vietnam and Cambodia, and the Netherlands, which centered on Indonesia, so that they were not adjacent to each other.
Due to its geographical condition of being sandwiched between British and French colonial areas, Thailand takes advantage of the fact that Britain and France dislike being adjacent to each other, and does not lean towards either side, but acts as a buffer zone and transit point for both. Traded as land and profited from it.
On the Korean Peninsula, the Treaty of Tianjin was signed after the Kashin Coup, and the Japanese and Qing forces withdrew from the peninsula. This has the same meaning as the neutralization that Russia is seeking from Ukraine, which was confirmed in a treaty between Japan and Qing. However, due to the rebellion of the Donghak Party, Queen Min upset the balance and the Sino-Japanese War broke out. Empress Min thought that she could not control the civil war that had broken out in her country, so she requested reinforcements from the Qing Dynasty.
After the Sino-Japanese War, the Korean Peninsula became an independent country and established the Korean Empire, but it was devoted to Russia and tried to keep Japan and Qing in check. The Russo-Japanese War was the result of Russia's advance southward. In this case, too, it was a war between Japan and Russia.
The Korean Peninsula has no interest in the benefits of being a buffer zone, and has constantly implemented policies that disrupt the balance. As a result, the Korean government, believing that it would be unable to prevent the expansion of Russian interests, signed the Japan-Korea Annexation Treaty. Japan and Korea are not at war here. What is different from the Ukraine issue is that the Korean Peninsula was not subject to military invasion, and the issue was resolved between the major powers involved (Japan-Qing, Japan-Russia).
In Ukraine, a pro-Russian president and a pro-Western president have alternated every election. The eastern part has many residents who benefit from the economy with Russia, while the western part does business with Europe. With regard to domestic economic issues, if a pro-Western president is inaugurated, economic policies will be focused on Western areas, and if a pro-Russian president is inaugurated, economic policies will be focused on eastern areas. It will be done.
Although it may appear to be a security issue, economics has a lot to do with national elections. And while the current Zelensky administration is pro-Western, it has also taken an anti-Russian line. As a result, the security balance in Europe was seriously disrupted by the NATO membership issue.
In any case, times are different now. Russia has faced much criticism from the international community for its military invasion of these issues.
Russia criticizes Romania for lending an airport as participating in the war.Romania is a member of NATO.
Democracy has weakened.Under the pressure of China's economy, liberal countries are only fighting defense.The world is trembling with China's expansion and with Russia's ongoing military aggression.This means that solidarity between democracies has weakened.At least there was strong unity during the Cold War in liberal countries, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, liberal countries focused on their economic activities.The loss of the enemy means peace.With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Union of Eastern European Union collapsed.Russia and Belarus are now continuing to defend the former Soviet forces of the Soviet Union.Is Russia now the Soviet Union?No, not the Soviet Union, but Russia.So what is going on now?Is the world asking itself this question?
What is the significance of NATO's existence?The world had lived half a century under tension that even a single shell could lead to World War III, confronting a military alliance called Warsaw Treaty Organization had centered on the Soviet Union.Biden repeatedly said, "We will not wage war with Russia because World War III will come."Romania was criticized by Russia.In other words, if Rumania continues to lend airports to Ukraine. military, it will be considered as joining a war.Romania is a member of NATO.What would happen if Romania were bombarded by Russia?In this case, we would surprise if Biden says, "I won't participate in the war because World War III will come." And I wondered what the Cold War was.
There is no end to the Russian invasion.Putin said there would be a ceasefire only if Ukraine accepted all Russian demands.This can also be seen as an ultimatum to the negotiations.Economic sanctions have backfired in Ukraine's invasion.Russia wants to compensate for the loss of economic sanctions through aggression.
Putin said, "Economic sanctions in developed countries are like declaring war."Ironically, Russia doesn't seem to want to stop the invasion in the future.
Is Ukraine a liberal country? Wait a minute. How was the North Korean nuclear missile made?
There are many questions about whether Ukraine is a democratic country. Ukrainian democracy is said to have been after the Orange Revolution. It was 2005. During the Cold War, it was the same country as the former Soviet Union, and corruption and corruption were widespread, and the content was almost unchanged. During the former Soviet Union, there were many nuclear and military facilities in Ukraine.
Chinese aircraft carriers, fighters, missiles, etc. were provided by Ukraine. North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile development is being carried out by nuclear researchers from Russia and Ukraine. In 2017, a total of nine Ukrainian researchers were listed on the list, which the North Korean defectors who served for the North Korean secret police and the Ministry of State Security revealed as "Ukrainian scientists working in North Korea." In 2007, North Korea disassembled one 2,800-ton class and one 3,000-ton class submarine from Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula and carried them to North Korea. In other words, it will be clear which country it is. The weapons of China and North Korea that threaten us and other Asian countries are brought by Ukraine. Currently, in Kyiv, a railway from Wuhan has been constructed as a key point north of the Belt and Road Initiative, and China is ranked first in terms of both imports and exports by trade.
There is no dispute that the Ukrainians who are currently invaded should be saved, but the media's tone of being a liberal camp against Ukraine makes me very uncomfortable. Most of them were indifferent to human rights issues during the Iraq War. There was controversy over the participation of the Self-Defense Forces as logistical support, but the murder of Iraqi citizens was dismissed as a false bomb as reported by the United States. In other words, the Iraqi people can't help being killed, and the Ukrainians are pitiful. And he criticizes every time North Korea launches a missile. This is the current public opinion in Japan.
